Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

I'm just going to say this: Regardless of if there's a runoff or not, Stacey Abrams has nothing to be ashamed of. She ran an amazing campaign and did the best any Georgia Democrat has since...I don't even know, Adam or one of the other Georgians can fill in the blank there.

Her margins in the Atlanta metro are simply insane. I hope it's not the last we've seen of her, and luckily I doubt it is.

I agree. The only people who should be ashamed are those in Rural Georgia, who had a choice to pick a candidate who arguably pandered to them more and gave them more direct attention than any candidate in modern Georgia history, but still decided to reject her by historic margins due to sandblasters and natural hair. Her campaign put in more effort from an organizational standpoint all across this state than any campaign I can ever recall (and considering that the old rural Democratic coalition didn't need tending to turn out, probably more than any campaign ever).

I've probably got 10,000 words or more I just wanna blurt out about this race, but if I do that, then nobody will read it. Maybe I'll just try to drop a blurb here and there as time progresses.

[Adam Griffin]

Swing, Carter 2014 - Abrams 2018

[Continential]

Teresa Tomblison is a good candidate for 2020

[Adam Griffin]

There was minimal difference between EV & ED this year (6.7 points; compared to a 13-point gap in 2014), which I think showcases how enthusiasm was significant on both sides:

Early Vote:
50.45% Abrams (+1.49)
48.96% Kemp

Election Day Vote:
51.90% Kemp (+5.18)
46.72% Abrams

[Alabama_Indy10]

Will we be getting any more votes reported today? Any idea how many is left?

[Yellowhammer]

I'm quite relieved by the outcome of this election. If I could've guaranteed that any single democrat would lose, it would've been Abrams.
It's very satisfying to see her go down. Hopefully this is the last time we have to deal with her. Congratulations, Governor-Elect Kemp!

[Gass3268]

After all of his cheating, he has now resigned:

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1060548577733328898

[Dr. Arch]

I'm quite relieved by the outcome of this election. If I could've guaranteed that any single democrat would lose, it would've been Abrams.
It's very satisfying to see her go down. Hopefully this is the last time we have to deal with her. Congratulations, Governor-Elect Kemp!

Except this may still go to a runoff?

Why would you support someone who clearly rigged the election in his favor? Oh... nvm, lol.

[Pollster]

Brian Kemp has resigned as SoS.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1060548577733328898

[Adam Griffin]

Will we be getting any more votes reported today? Any idea how many is left?

Both SoS and the media seem to agree on what's left: approximately 20-25k at this point, with 80% or more being provisionals, around 10% being civilian VBM and another 10% military ballots.

Democrats are claiming everything from unopened mail ballots in some ATL counties to votes blowing in from Hurricane Michael. However, this doesn't appear to be true.

In the last midterm, only one quarter of GA provisionals ended up being counted. In 2016, that number was 45%. Whatever is counted will break 2:1 in favor of Abrams (or more, possibly). Expect the margin to shrink by another 2-5k votes.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Will we be getting any more votes reported today? Any idea how many is left?

Both SoS and the media seem to agree on what's left: approximately 20-25k at this point, with 80% or more being provisionals, around 10% being civilian VBM and another 10% military ballots.

Democrats are claiming everything from unopened mail ballots in some ATL counties to votes blowing in from Hurricane Michael. However, this doesn't appear to be true.

In the last midterm, only one quarter of GA provisionals ended up being counted. In 2016, that number was 45%. Whatever is counted will break 2:1 in favor of Abrams (or more, possibly). Expect the margin to shrink by another 2-5k votes.

Is there a deadline or something for when these votes have to be counted?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Provisionals need to be cured by close of business Friday.

I don’t know where Abrams thinks the lead is going to shrink for there to be a runoff. Unless there is a treasure trove of votes from Abrams-friendly territory we don’t know about she needs to concede.

[Adam Griffin]

A fellow Georgian and I were discussing what this election might have looked like if we could have had the best of both worlds: Carter's better numbers and/or Abrams' better numbers for each county. Well, I've went ahead and calculated it.

For the counties where Abrams' margin was better, I used 2018 percentages (below; yellow). Where they were better for Carter, I used the 2014 percentages (green). Because of the vastly different turnout levels for the 2 elections, I took each county's share of the electorate for both 2014 and 2018 and averaged it, and used that to calculate the raw votes each candidate received in an election with 3.9 million voters.



I also had to reconcile the Libertarian vote share differences: in short, I gave 10% of the excess Libertarian vote share to Abrams and 90% to Kemp (realistic - maybe even overly generous to Kemp).

Not only would she be in the lead, she would have won outright:

Hybrid Carter-Abrams Majority Win

50.15% - 1962929 - Abrams
48.90% - 1913946 - Kemp
0.95% - 37088 - Metz

(Colors are exact Atlas colors but some counties show up a shade darker/lighter due to the way I have to tell Google Fusion Tables to color the map; Douglas is a good example, as it's below 40% GOP, it colors it with >60% Dem)

[Del Tachi]

A fellow Georgian and I were discussing what this election might have looked like if we could have had the best of both worlds: Carter's better numbers and/or Abrams' better numbers for each county. Well, I've went ahead and calculated it.

For the counties where Abrams' margin was better, I used 2018 percentages (below; yellow). Where they were better for Carter, I used the 2014 percentages (green). Because of the vastly different turnout levels for the 2 elections, I took each county's share of the electorate for both 2014 and 2018 and averaged it, and used that to calculate the raw votes each candidate received in an election with 3.9 million voters.



I also had to reconcile the Libertarian vote share differences: in short, I gave 10% of the excess Libertarian vote share to Abrams and 90% to Kemp (realistic - maybe even overly generous to Kemp).

Not only would she be in the lead, she would have won outright:

Hybrid Carter-Abrams Majority Win

50.15% - 1962929 - Abrams
48.90% - 1913946 - Kemp
0.95% - 37088 - Metz

(Colors are exact Atlas colors but some counties show up a shade darker/lighter due to the way I have to tell Google Fusion Tables to color the map; Douglas is a good example, as it's below 40% GOP, it colors it with >60% Dem)

The tightrope Dems have to walk in Georgia is intimidating.

Metro Atlanta will continue to grow and trend D, however.

[Mr. Smith]

I repeat, what are the odds of triggering a "under 1%" recount, if that's a thing?

[Adam Griffin]

I repeat, what are the odds of triggering a "under 1%" recount, if that's a thing?

Zero at this point. See my responses on this page and the previous 1 or 2.

[Aurelio21]

I am not familiar with Georgian electoral law. I do not want to mock the georgian election authorities or imply anything bad. Yet, as an outside observer, it seems to be summed up as "The only thing that counts is the one who counts, not who tries to vote.

With 340,000 voters (according to Greg Palast) "accidentily" purged, not enough voting equipment in certain not-favorable precincts for the chief election officer who oversees his own election, declaring himself victor before certification and the obvious misuse of the secretary of state for election propaganda this would have been a Wahlfehler"(irregular election). This would automatically lead to a repitition of the election on precinct or even state level here in germany.

I have been a voluntary poll worker at several elections, and anything that leads to a measurable voter shift is regarded as irregular. I was even not allowed to greet the voters I personally know(Name secrecy). The precincts contain a maimum of 900 to 1000 voters. And electronic voting mashines are generally outlawed after it became known that there is even a sleight possibility  of hacking them. Of, there are attempts of voter fraud, some successful , here as well. Yet the vast majority becomes public, and lead nearly always it is reported this way in the media(no "fake news").  And this lead to an repitition of the election at least on precinct level.

PS Even if it is very hard not to be outraged, the Abrams campaign should not leave any Impression of being a sore loser. The SOS election is still out there, and the provisional ballots in GA-07 should put Mrs Bordeaux over the top, Mrs Abrams should focus on getting J Barrow elected for ensuering a fair election. The trend is on the DPG's side and can be only stopped by "accidently de-registrating" voters in Atlanta and adjacent counties.
Edit: Last Paragraph added

[Gass3268]

If John Barrow were to win the SoS job, how fast until the state strips the position's authority?

[Aurelio21]

That's likely to happen that the Georgia GOP will try something like giving the authority to e g the governor.
This might play well with "the base", but this will only reinforce an image the NC GOP has.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is there mandated early voting for runoffs?

[Adam Griffin]

Is there mandated early voting for runoffs?

Yes - but somebody placed doubt in my head about it being the same 16 day period (they thought it was just 1 week). We had a special election runoff here last year and I can't recall 100% for the life of me whether we had 3 weeks for that, too.

[Adam Griffin]

SoS has released unofficial counts of provisional votes by county.

http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/november_6_2018_general_election_unofficial_provisional_count

[Adam Griffin]

Is there mandated early voting for runoffs?

So, for the special State Senate runoff we had, there was 2 weeks of early voting in Gordon County - but this occurred over the Christmas-New Year period, so there was also no early voting on both of those Mondays. I'm not sure if that impacted it, or if it was the same in the other counties:

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[Adam Griffin]

I've tried looking back through old articles for 2008, and if I've read it correctly, there were...8 days of early voting (Monday - Friday for Week 1, then Monday - Wednesday for Week 2)?

The laws may have changed since then - and that was a federal runoff, which has its own distinctions and therefore could be different in terms of early voting length. I'll figure it out soon enough, though.

Funny thing is, for that State Senate special runoff I mentioned above, there were also 8 days of early voting (but I figure it's just a coincidence; the result of government offices being closed on those Mondays). But, thanksgiving may be the reason why there were only 8 days in 2008, too. That implies the EV periods are mandated as a specific segment of time prior to an election and do not take into account any office closures, which would cut deeply into early voting periods.

[BundouYMB]

What a brazenly stolen election. If Kemp gets away with this, then Georgia is not a democracy.