Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[ON Progressive]

Just a reminder that TargetSmart whiffed BADLY in 2016. They were literally missing multiple states by double digits. Don't take their "modeled partisanship" garbage seriously.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Just a reminder that TargetSmart whiffed BADLY in 2016. They were literally missing multiple states by double digits. Don't take their "modeled partisanship" garbage seriously.

Do you have examples? Impartial's post is adding to the anxiety I've been feeling all day.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just a reminder that TargetSmart whiffed BADLY in 2016. They were literally missing multiple states by double digits. Don't take their "modeled partisanship" garbage seriously.

I remember that. Clinton was supposedly ahead in Florida by 7 at one point in a TargetSmart poll.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Just a reminder that TargetSmart whiffed BADLY in 2016. They were literally missing multiple states by double digits. Don't take their "modeled partisanship" garbage seriously.

It is not supposed to model the vote, it is supposed to model whether people generally consider themselves as D or R. Of course that will also fluctuate just like Party ID fluctuates.

I remember that. Clinton was supposedly ahead in Florida by 7 at one point in a TargetSmart poll.

It is not a poll, it is early vote data. Regardless of whether it overestimates D or R partisanship (I am sure it does one or the other), it is consistent methodologically over time, so the comparison to 2014 should be valid. And that is showing more of the Dem gains coming from voters with better vote history, which is a bit disconcerting.

I am thinking at this point Abrams' best bet is for it to go to a runoff, and then in the runoff Rs lose intensity (while nationally all those Dem small donors who have been donating millions will suddenly start pouring it all into her campaign), while Abrams still has her ground game to turn out voters. Yes, I know that historically Rs have tended to do better in runoffs, but I think that is probably the better shot at this point. I do think it is still possible for Abrams to win (even without a runoff), but if so it looks like it will be more as a result of swinging suburban whites over to her side as opposed to just turnout by itself. The polls out of GA-06 and GA-07 are encouraging on that point.

[Technocracy Timmy]

https://twitter.com/BrianKempGA/status/1059581337554898944

[_]

https://twitter.com/BrianKempGA/status/1059581337554898944

If this does not show desperation of some sort..

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/BrianKempGA/status/1059581337554898944

Kemp was b@@@@@@g about them open carrying and yada yada, Kemp and his crowd love guns flowing like the river ganges and open carry more open than a 24 hour mcdonalds, so long as we are talking for white people.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/BrianKempGA/status/1059581337554898944

Ironic coming from the same people who are backed by the KKK and literal Nazis and then whine and complain when called out that they "can't help who supports us"

[Buzz]

Some of the people in this thread are just unreal. Im glad it will be revealed tomorrow that the majority of Georgians are still sane.  Some real nutjobs in here!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Some of the people in this thread are just unreal. Im glad it will be revealed tomorrow that the majority of Georgians are still sane.  Some real nutjobs in here!

Unfortunately I have to agree that Kemp will win outright tomorrow.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Some of the people in this thread are just unreal. Im glad it will be revealed tomorrow that the majority of Georgians are still sane.  Some real nutjobs in here!

Please quote what posts were made by nutjobs.

[NeederNodder]

https://twitter.com/BrianKempGA/status/1059581337554898944

He's gonna lose

[Adam Griffin]

Well, here we are. A line of thunderstorms is currently starting to cross my area, and here's what we're looking at for the next few hours. According to this, the intensity may begin to break down as it moves east but it may also begin to rain across a wider area.

[Inmate Trump]

My prediction for tonight is Kemp barely wins more votes than Abrams (something like 49-47%), and it goes to a December runoff.

I wish I could think more optimistically, but having been around so many red voters (I live and work in a very pro-Trump area) and seeing how energized they are, not by Kemp but by a dislike of Abrams, I think Kemp is going to get more votes but be unable to bring it home.

My wish is that Abrams wins outright tonight.

[Use Your Illusion]

Good luck to all of you today. Cheers

[KingSweden]

My prediction for tonight is Kemp barely wins more votes than Abrams (something like 49-47%), and it goes to a December runoff.

I wish I could think more optimistically, but having been around so many red voters (I live and work in a very pro-Trump area) and seeing how energized they are, not by Kemp but by a dislike of Abrams, I think Kemp is going to get more votes but be unable to bring it home.

My wish is that Abrams wins outright tonight.

I think a runoff is a reasonable expectation.

[Badger]

Some of the people in this thread are just unreal. Im glad it will be revealed tomorrow that the majority of Georgians are still sane.  Some real nutjobs in here!

Please quote what posts were made by nutjobs.

Dead silence. Telling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In The Hill's collection of predictions from various political figures, Matt Schlapp (chairman of the American Conservative Union) picked Republicans across the board, as you might expect.  With one exception: he picked Stacey Abrams.

[Adam Griffin]

So I've got poll watchers stationed at around one-third of the precincts in my county (mostly Democratic or competitive precincts, but some uber-GOP ones, too) and I'm seeing a recurring pattern among the former two categories.

As of right now, turnout for today alone (first 4.5 hours out of 12) is already around half of what it was among all voters (Early + Election Day) 4 years ago - and we know there were a crap ton of voters who voted early as well. For example, our biggest "swing precinct" cast a total of 450 votes in 2014 (EV+ED), and has already had 230 votes cast this morning alone.

Still waiting for reports from the heavily-GOP ones. Wouldn't surprise me if there are a lot of precincts where raw turnout is 1.5x what it was in 2014 or more.

[libertpaulian]

Apparently, there are technical issues at key Gwinnett County precincts:

https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/machines-down-hundreds-wait-one-gwinnett-voting-precinct/nNdh2wuAvjinnomVB5Oq9M/

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm very on edge. Putting my energy into doing some last minute GOTV canvassing.

[Adam Griffin]

Apparently, there are technical issues at key Gwinnett County precincts:

https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/machines-down-hundreds-wait-one-gwinnett-voting-precinct/nNdh2wuAvjinnomVB5Oq9M/

Gwinnett County's demographic shift is so massive and rapid that my observations might be dated even when they were right just a few years ago, but...if there was anywhere outside of eastern and northern fringes of Gwinnett where this could happen and impact Democrats the least, it's in places like Suwanee and Snellville. The latter at one point was the most GOP community in the western half of Gwinnett.

[Horus]

Anecdotal, but I'm hearing turnout in Gwinnett is off the chain.

[Comrade Funk]

I can not effing believe Kemp might get off free. Lines up to 4 hours, decreased and malfunctioning voting machines, missing power cords....this isn't a democracy.

[Hammy]

I can not effing believe Kemp might get off free. Lines up to 4 hours, decreased and malfunctioning voting machines, missing power cords....this isn't a democracy.

The Deep South has consistently failed to meet even the basic standards for what qualifies as democracy since Reconstruction ended, I'm not sure why people are suddenly surprised this year.