Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Horus]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams on Morning Joe encouraging the 1.5 million voters who are registered but don't normally show up in midterms to turn out and empower the 53,000 GA citizens whose registration applications are in "pending status" because of the exact-match policy.

[Virginiá]

Griff, was there any flooding there? There are still weeks to go before the election, so if it didn't do any major damage, it shouldn't hurt turnout too much, although those people might end up voting later than usual. It's also a good thing Abrams is doing a huge VBM push too I suppose, since returning a ballot in the mail is generally much easier than casting a vote in-person.

Hope everyone dodged a bullet tho

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Looking at the 5 big metro counties, the white share of the electorate in VBM seems to be higher there than it is statewide; inversely, the non-white share of VBMs is lower there:

"The Big 5" (Fulton/Dekalb/Clayton/Gwinnett/Cobb) VBM Returns
44.4% White

GA Outside "The Big 5" VBM Returns
44.1% White

And here are the 2017 Census estimates:

"The Big 5" (Fulton/Dekalb/Clayton/Gwinnett/Cobb) 2017 Pop
37.2% White

GA Outside "The Big 5" 2017 Pop
61.5% White

Think about that for a second.

Yeah, that is definitely amazingly good news. The early voting in GA so far basically looks much more like a Democratic primary than a general election, which is just completely nuts. Hopefully the early voting in person looks similarly good once that starts - if so, Abrams should be golden for the win. And if so, hopefully in the future other Dems will follow her strategy (and also do so in other similar states like NC, FL, and TX).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Griff, was there any flooding there? There are still weeks to go before the election, so if it didn't do any major damage, it shouldn't hurt turnout too much, although those people might end up voting later than usual. It's also a good thing Abrams is doing a huge VBM push too I suppose, since returning a ballot in the mail is generally much easier than casting a vote in-person.

Hope everyone dodged a bullet tho

There's a lot of damage in southern (especially southwestern) Georgia.  Not much here in metro ATL (some down trees and minor local flooding) and probably even less in Griff's turf, which is even further north.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/LawyersComm/status/1050507434815614976

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LawyersComm/status/1050507434815614976

Wasn't there an injunction that stopped the exact match in 2016, or am I misremembering?

[Adam Griffin]

Griff, was there any flooding there? There are still weeks to go before the election, so if it didn't do any major damage, it shouldn't hurt turnout too much, although those people might end up voting later than usual. It's also a good thing Abrams is doing a huge VBM push too I suppose, since returning a ballot in the mail is generally much easier than casting a vote in-person.

Hope everyone dodged a bullet tho

My main concern was that the hurricane tracked almost perfectly in terms of where the wind gusts were worst along the Black Belt as it moved through the state - in particular in SW GA. It was the first hurricane in more than a century to hit GA as a Category 3. It also gave a wallop to the black Panhandle areas as well (much more than here, obviously). As GeorgiaModerate said, though, really no damage above the Fall Line, though: we got 3/4" of rain over an 8-hour period where I live.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's pretty crazy considering how far inland these areas are: it was still a Cat 1 when it was hovering over Macon. Half of Albany was without power this morning.

I don't think there was much of an issue with flooding in Georgia - looks like SW GA got 4-5" of rain at worst, so not too terrible. Thankfully the storm was such a fast mover that it didn't have enough time to inundate. The winds are a different story, though. 300,000 people are without power. I had no idea how powerful the storm had become until last night because it went from a Cat 1-2 to a near Cat 5 in like a day.

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 4,836 valid votes were received compared to yesterday; today's accepted ballot total (returned minus rejected) stands at 45,265 votes. The white share of the vote increased from yesterday, as did every other non-black group. Over 65s have been in relative free-fall the past 2 days, losing almost an entire point of their share of the electorate.

6,812 new ballots were requested since yesterday, bringing the total of requested ballots to 174,012.

Code:

White	20143	44.5% (+0.3)
Black	18789	41.5% (-0.5)
Latino	1079          2.4% (+0.1)
Asian	1381	         3.1%  (+0.2)
Other	3873	         8.6%  (+0.1)

Female	26498	58.5% (+0.1)
Male		18023 	39.8% (-0.2)
Unknown	744	        1.6%   (0.0)

18-29	 2928	6.5%   (+0.1)
30-39	 2424	5.4%   (+0.2)
40-49	 3407	7.5%   (0.0)
50-64       10294	22.7%  (+0.1)
65+         25536        56.4%  (-0.5)
Unknown	  676        1.5%    (0.0)

[IceSpear]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

[Horus]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

[Dr. Arch]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

So, you're saying Democrats won't be making significant gains this year? Is there always gonna be a "shy GOP vote" now?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

A "shy" vote in the sense of respondents lying to pollsters is negligible.  The primary cause of an underestimate of Trump and the GOP in 2016 was the actual electorate not matching the pollsters' models.  Why do you think something similar will happen in 2018?  (Note: "because it happened in 2016" is not by itself a sufficient answer.)

[Zaybay]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

A "shy" vote in the sense of respondents lying to pollsters is negligible.  The primary cause of an underestimate of Trump and the GOP in 2016 was the actual electorate not matching the pollsters' models.  Why do you think something similar will happen in 2018?  (Note: "because it happened in 2016" is not by itself a sufficient answer.)

Yeah, there really isnt even a reason to lie to a pollster about who you will support. If anything, this year, we will see a Shy Dem effect, and then everyone will make the same mistake.

[Horus]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

So, you're saying Democrats won't be making significant gains this year? Is there always gonna be a "shy GOP vote" now?

Absolutely, at least until Trump leaves office.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

So, you're saying Democrats won't be making significant gains this year? Is there always gonna be a "shy GOP vote" now?

Absolutely, at least until Trump leaves office.

Why wasnt there a shy GOP vote in VA Gov, AL Senate, and PA? These were all races you got wrong by 10 points

[Dr. Arch]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

So, you're saying Democrats won't be making significant gains this year? Is there always gonna be a "shy GOP vote" now?

Absolutely, at least until Trump leaves office.

 

[Zaybay]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

So, you're saying Democrats won't be making significant gains this year? Is there always gonna be a "shy GOP vote" now?

Absolutely, at least until Trump leaves office.

May you please present some proof to your theory? For the opposition has a GCB, state legislature victories, VA, PA, AL, among others to counter your point.

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/9nmrxh/hi_im_stacey_abrams_if_i_win_my_toss_up_georgia/?st=JN6H5LUF&sh=b301f875

Abrams is doing an ama right now

[Adam Griffin]

What even is this last page? Cartersville's favorite resident would kindly ask that you take that s[inks]t outside, please.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Or maybe that, just like in the old days, measures to disenfranchise Blacks also ended up disenfranchising many Poor Whites.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1050863473301819398

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1050863473301819398

The lengths the Georgia GOP will go to suppress voting by Democrats is really quite stunning. Is there any other state party this aggressive with purging and using law enforcement to investigate and pin bogus charges on activists? The only one that really comes to mind is North Carolina, and they mostly just aggressively legislate new loopholes to abuse vs the kind of tom-foolery Kemp & friends has been up to since 2010 and especially this cycle.

[IceSpear]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

So, you're saying Democrats won't be making significant gains this year? Is there always gonna be a "shy GOP vote" now?

Absolutely, at least until Trump leaves office.

Why wasnt there a shy GOP vote in VA Gov, AL Senate, and PA? These were all races you got wrong by 10 points

I also want to know who his "sources" were that said Saccone would win by 10-12 points the day before the election, lol.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm sure most Gwinnett officials are s[inks]tting their britches, especially after the May primary. This is a place where all the county-level positions are still held by the GOP but could easily fall in one fell swoop in November. The fact that even Isakson only won Gwinnett with a plurality tells you all you need to know. Disenfranchising even a relatively small number of voters could have a disproportionate impact there.