Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m sad.

I knew deep down Abrams prefers to be an executive but had hoped she had been swayed to run by a commitment from national leadership to prioritize GA in 2020. Guess Ossoff and Sarah Riggs Amico jump in the Senate race too.

Yuck. Hopefully Tomlinson just gets a cleared field. Who do you prefer?

Tomlinson is far and away the most competent and prepared to do the job. And not that she would have a choice after 2018 but she definitely embraced Abrams model for flipping GA vs the Roy Barnes/Stacey Evans crew. Georgia Dems should coalesce around her now.

[LoneStarDem]

It's beginning to look more & more likely the 2022 rematch between Abrams & Kemp is a go.

Big question is whether the GA Dems will get off the losing streak ?

[Suburbia]

Scott Holcomb should run.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's beginning to look more & more likely the 2022 rematch between Abrams & Kemp is a go.

Big question is whether the GA Dems will get off the losing streak ?

Depends on if the Dems are winning the WH or not , if they do I would say likely no they won’t win, on the other hand if Trump is re-elected than I would say they would win the Gubernatorial Race in Georgia.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m sad.

I knew deep down Abrams prefers to be an executive but had hoped she had been swayed to run by a commitment from national leadership to prioritize GA in 2020. Guess Ossoff and Sarah Riggs Amico jump in the Senate race too.

Click on the tweet to read the thread:

https://twitter.com/SarahRiggsAmico/status/1123344434924589058

[Adam Griffin]

It's beginning to look more & more likely the 2022 rematch between Abrams & Kemp is a go.

Big question is whether the GA Dems will get off the losing streak ?

Depends on if the Dems are winning the WH or not , if they do I would say likely no they won’t win, on the other hand if Trump is re-elected than I would say they would win the Gubernatorial Race in Georgia.

GA has shown a tendency not to really follow the national midterm trends historically; in fact, if anything, it has generally done the opposite. In 2006 with a huge blue wave, GA Dems had their worst year ever. In the GOP 2010 wave, GA Democrats improved markedly in terms of overall %, and in 2014, Dems improved once again.

Inelasticity + demographics more or less rules out any huge swings being influenced by national trends. 2018 was probably an exception to this given the sheer amount of national polarization that now exists (I would argue that there's been a delay in Southern suburbs reflecting the voting patterns of suburbia at-large - but that it's finally caught up - but alas), but I wouldn't bank on ruling out GA flipping in 2022 just because a Dem is in the WH.

[LoneStarDem]

Expecting Trump to win reelection in 2020.

Big question is whether the GA Dems will get off the mat & start winning statewide offices again ?

[Gass3268]

Republican Danny Porter, DA-Gwinnett County, is considering switching parties for his 2020 run.

[skbl17]

[snip because I don't have enough posts to include links]

Writing's on the wall for the GOP in Gwinnett, and he knows it. Just how far will the Gwinnett GOP fall? Consider the following:

1) In November 2018, Dems had no county commission seats, no countywide positions, one Board of Education seat, and 10 of 25 seats on the county General Assembly delegation. With the exception of BOE district 2 - Republican Steve Knudson held on by ~100 votes - every partisan county race was won by a Democrat. Both county commission seats, one BOE seat, and the Solicitor General office were all flips, and none of them were close. 8 General Assembly seats (2 Senate, 6 House) flipped to the Dems, giving them control of the county delegation.

2) The remaining Republican-held county commission seats are all up in 2020. The county commission district map is practically a dummymander (someone else has probably run the numbers, but I think Abrams won or came within a couple points of winning all of them).

In district 3, Tommy Hunter is heading for defeat - he managed to piss off almost half his constituents in 2017 by calling Democrats "Demonrats" and calling John Lewis a "racist pig", his attempts at making up for the comments weren't well-received; only reason he wasn't recalled is because offensive public commentary is not grounds for recalling an official in Georgia. He already had a close-race in 2016 (he won 51-49) and Abrams carried his district by a comfortable margin.

District 1's Jace Brooks was unopposed in 2016, but his district doesn't include the reddest parts of Gwinnett - Buford and the Hamilton Mill HS cluster - but rather Suwanee and many heavy-Dem precincts along I-85 north of Jimmy Carter Blvd. He's not quite as doomed as Tommy Hunter is, but he's in danger of losing.

Finally, Charlotte Nash is the chairwoman and thus will be on the ballot countywide. Nash has been relatively inoffensive, but I don't recall Solicitor General Szabo being offensive either - she still lost 54-42 last fall. Very likely the Dems win her seat, and it probably won't be that close.

In short, it's probable the county commission will go from all-GOP to all-Dem within the span of two years. Damn.

3) The Board of Education map is on the cusp of being a dummymander. As previously mentioned, Knudson held on in district 2, but his district takes in the ultra-red Hamilton Mill cluster, parts of ultra-red Sugar Hill, and the swingy and Dem-leaning precincts along GA Highway 20 from Lawrenceville to the Mall of Georgia. He only won by ~100 votes.

BOE District 3 and the chair position are up next year.  District 3's incumbent Republican Mary Kay Murphy was unopposed in 2016, but Abrams won a majority of precincts in Murphy's district. This race is very ripe for a Dem flip. As is the chairman position, but that goes without saying as a countywide position.

Knudson's win means that the GOP will, at the very least, keep one position on the Gwinnett BOE.

4) Sheriff Butch Conway, the tax commissioner, and several countywide partisan court positions are also up. I suspect 2020 will not be kind to their reelection prospects considering what happened to Szabo in 2018.

5) P.K. Martin is in serious danger of losing his state Senate seat (SD-9). Harrell is completely done for in HD-106 (he was unopposed because of a Dem fail in qualifying, but Abrams carried his seat by 15 points,) and HD-104 (Efstration's seat) will be close.

In short, Gwinnett is a complete dumpster fire for the GOP and they're losing their grip on all levels of power in the county. Danny Porter running for reelection as a Dem is the only way he can hold the office short of a Dem qualifying failure.

[Tintrlvr]

Republican Danny Porter, DA-Gwinnett County, is considering switching parties for his 2020 run.

Can he win a Democratic primary?

[ON Progressive]

[snip because I don't have enough posts to include links]

The remaining Republican-held county commission seats are all up in 2020. The county commission district map is practically a dummymander (someone else has probably run the numbers, but I think Abrams won or came within a couple points of winning all of them).

It is the most glorious (or inglorious, depending on your point of view) dummymander

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I would not at all be surprised if the Democratic nominee hit 60% in Gwinnett in 2020

Wouldn't they be winning statewide if they hit 60% here?

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I would not at all be surprised if the Democratic nominee hit 60% in Gwinnett in 2020

Wouldn't they be winning statewide if they hit 60% here?

Not necessarily but it’d be at least a coin flip. Gwinnett zoomed left from 2012–>2016 by double digits and then zoomed left from 2016–>2018 by another absurd 8%. There’s no reason to think getting 60% there is unreasonable given how fast it’s growing and how fast the GOP seems hellbent on turning suburban voters away

Right, but given that rural white areas in Georgia are maxed out for Republicans, I think a Democrat who's hitting 60% in Gwinnett has to be winning statewide, unless turnout among rural black and Hispanic voters is way down outside of the ATL area for some reason.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Rockdale, Henry, Gwinnett, Douglas, Clayton and Cobb counties actually Swung D from 2008-2012 interesting enough.

[Rookie Yinzer]

But yes, this forum grossly underestimates GA’s ability to flip in 2020, and one could make a strong case for why it should be up there with WI/Mi/PA/AZ in discussions about being the tipping point state. It’d be foolish to assume Abrams is the new max for GA Dems in metro Atlanta after everyone thought that was the case for Clinton’s strong performance in 2016.

The blood red rural counties had much stronger turnout than say the South Suburbs (Clayton, Henry, Douglas, Newton, Rockdale) where the constituency is ripe with young low propensity black voters who may have skipped the midterms and Kemp still only eked it out 50-49. I don't see where Trump outperforms Kemp but there are plenty of places (nice and densely populated) where PresDem outperforms Abrams and closes the gap. We get our Presidential turnout in these places + maintain what we did in Gwinnett, Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb, and it's over for Trump.

Perdue will only be saved by a run-off but I can certainly see SenateDem getting more votes than him on Election Night. But hopefully the dam just breaks and we get over 50 comfortably.

In short, Gwinnett is a complete dumpster fire for the GOP and they're losing their grip on all levels of power in the county. Danny Porter running for reelection as a Dem is the only way he can hold the office short of a Dem qualifying failure.

This post was glorious to read and it explains why Gwinnett was rejecting absentee ballots left and righ and forgetting power cords in the blackest precincts in the county on Election Day.

[lfromnj]

LMAO the commisionors didnt even bother keeping 1 D sink.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here is my early 2020 GA Prez election prediction map. GA should be very close heading into 2020 imo as the the rapidly growing Atlanta metro keeps gaining population, ongoing demographic changes, Trump toxicity in urban and suburban areas of major metro areas continues. While most of GA's rural counties gets somewhat even more Republican as those areas continue to drain in population. I wasn't sure to put Cobb and Newton Counties in the 60% range, I instead have then in the 50-59% range to be on the safe side, Though the Dem nominee should win get around 57-59% of the vote in Cobb and Newton.

[skbl17]

Rockdale, Henry, Gwinnett, Douglas, Clayton and Douglas counties actually Swung D from 2008-2012 interesting enough.

Yeah, 2016 and 2018 just accelerated trends that were already present.

Also, you posted Douglas twice. I assume you meant Cobb for one of them?

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Here is my early 2020 GA Prez election prediction map. GA should be very close heading into 2020 imo as the the rapidly growing Atlanta metro keeps gaining population, ongoing demographic changes, Trump toxicity in urban and suburban areas of major metro areas continues. While most of GA's rural counties gets somewhat even more Republican as those areas continue to drain in population. I wasn't sure to put Cobb and Newton Counties in the 60% range, I instead have then in the 50-59% range to be on the safe side, Though the Dem nominee should win get around 57-59% of the vote in Cobb and Newton.

What is the margin of victory in this map?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Certainly below 2% and likely under a 1% margin

[Continential]

How will the Supreme Court election look as Barrow is running?

[skbl17]

How will the Supreme Court election look as Barrow is running?

Judicial races are officially nonpartisan, so it depends on whether the candidates and parties decide they want to make it seem partisan on the campaign trail. Recent judicial elections here show that (thankfully, imo) that isn't the case. In that case, Barrow may make it on name recognition, but I don't know.

Frankly, I think this race will probably get lost in the noise of the 2020 presidential primaries and the Senate race.

[Continential]

How will the Supreme Court election look as Barrow is running?

Judicial races are officially nonpartisan, so it depends on whether the candidates and parties decide they want to make it seem partisan on the campaign trail. Recent judicial elections here show that (thankfully, imo) that isn't the case. In that case, Barrow may make it on name recognition, but I don't know.

Frankly, I think this race will probably get lost in the noise of the 2020 presidential primaries and the Senate race.

Who are the GOP candidates or the potential candidates.

[LoneStarDem]

Big question is whether the GA Dems will win back some of the judicial statewide offices ?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Big question is whether the GA Dems will win back some of the judicial statewide offices ?

Ken Hodges (2010 Dem nominee for AG) won a Court of Appeals seat last year pretty easily. Folks probably just picked his name because it was the first one on the ballot.

John Barrow will probably win in a cakewalk. There won't be attention to it in the midst of the presidential race, Senate race, and congressional primaries (especially in GA-07). He's running against a woman, his name is John, and he will be listed first. So it's pretty biased in his favor.

How will the Supreme Court election look as Barrow is running?

Judicial races are officially nonpartisan, so it depends on whether the candidates and parties decide they want to make it seem partisan on the campaign trail. Recent judicial elections here show that (thankfully, imo) that isn't the case. In that case, Barrow may make it on name recognition, but I don't know.

Frankly, I think this race will probably get lost in the noise of the 2020 presidential primaries and the Senate race.

Who are the GOP candidates or the potential candidates.

Court of Appeals Judge Sara Doyle

ETA: Tomlinson made an awesome hire. Abrams 2018 Finance Director/Deputy Campaign Manager Edana Walker joined her team.