Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

Adam, looking at your 2018 precinct map, how many DeKalb precincts did Kemp win?  Only 5?   What was the number in 2010?  2002?

2018: 6
2016: 8
2014: 23
2012: 25
2010: 27
2008: 18
2006: 47
2004: 33
2002: 18

[Rookie Yinzer]

The man who pointed a gun at a teenager on television and had twelve black people arrested for registering people to vote is officially our Governor!

[Politician]

The man who pointed a gun at a teenager on television and had twelve black people arrested for registering people to vote is officially our Governor!

Calthrina's new favorite governor.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams is launching a “Thank You” tour in Albany on Monday (she launched her Gubernatorial campaign there). I’ve never heard of such a thing.... is she really about to go through with a Senate run?

[nolesfan2011]

Abrams is launching a “Thank You” tour in Albany on Monday (she launched her Gubernatorial campaign there). I’ve never heard of such a thing.... is she really about to go through with a Senate run?

she can't say no to DC, she's running

[Podgy the Bear]

Abrams is launching a “Thank You” tour in Albany on Monday (she launched her Gubernatorial campaign there). I’ve never heard of such a thing.... is she really about to go through with a Senate run?

she can't say no to DC, she's running

I guess she has the Guy Millner syndrome (check 1994, 1996, and 1998 in Georgia) of running for every upcoming election imaginable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC/UGA state poll, Jan. 7-17, 702 registered voters

Favorability numbers:

Donald Trump 37/56
Brian Kemp 37/47
Nancy Pelosi 39/48
Sen. David Perdue 45/31
Stacey Abrams 52/40
Nathan Deal 57/26
Affordable Care Act 52/37

37/47 for a newly inaugurated governor seems...not good.

[ON Progressive]

AJC/UGA state poll, Jan. 7-17, 702 registered voters

Favorability numbers:

Donald Trump 37/56
Brian Kemp 37/47
Nancy Pelosi 39/48
Sen. David Perdue 45/31
Stacey Abrams 52/40
Nathan Deal 57/26
Affordable Care Act 52/37

37/47 for a newly inaugurated governor seems...not good.

This seems way too Dem friendly to be realistic, as much as I want to believe.

[Gass3268]

AJC/UGA state poll, Jan. 7-17, 702 registered voters

Favorability numbers:

Donald Trump 37/56
Brian Kemp 37/47
Nancy Pelosi 39/48
Sen. David Perdue 45/31
Stacey Abrams 52/40
Nathan Deal 57/26
Affordable Care Act 52/37

37/47 for a newly inaugurated governor seems...not good.

This seems way too Dem friendly to be realistic, as much as I want to believe.

We are in the middle of a shutdown.

[ON Progressive]

AJC/UGA state poll, Jan. 7-17, 702 registered voters

Favorability numbers:

Donald Trump 37/56
Brian Kemp 37/47
Nancy Pelosi 39/48
Sen. David Perdue 45/31
Stacey Abrams 52/40
Nathan Deal 57/26
Affordable Care Act 52/37

37/47 for a newly inaugurated governor seems...not good.

This seems way too Dem friendly to be realistic, as much as I want to believe.

We are in the middle of a shutdown.

Yes, but this is Georgia. Georgia having -19 favorability would require it to be to the left of the nation on Trump, which seems quite unreasonable.

[Zaybay]

This poll is garbage. Not only does the methodology overestimate Ds to an extreme degree, but the numbers also make no sense contextually. Trump's approval puts the state in the realm of MA, MD, NJ, etc. and if Stacey Abrams was this popular and Kemp that unpopular, it would be Governor Abrams.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, bad poll. All you had to do was see Trump -19 and Pelosi -9 to realize that...or Abrams +12 and Kemp -10...

To be fair, the Deal & Perdue margins look legit, though (Perdue's might be a little lower).

[QAnonKelly]

Yeah that poll is junk, Deal’s numbers are the only ones I see being accurate.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah that poll is junk, Deal’s numbers are the only ones I see being accurate.

Perdue's don't seem unreasonable ether (although as Griff said, probably slightly lower).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Who will be the Republican front runner for Senate if Isakson retires in 2022? If Handel had won last year (and 2020) I would say her to combat the gender gap and hemorrhaging of Republican support in the Suburbs.... but she didn't.

[Adam Griffin]

Who will be the Republican front runner for Senate if Isakson retires in 2022? If Handel had won last year (and 2020) I would say her to combat the gender gap and hemorrhaging of Republican support in the Suburbs.... but she didn't.

I see no way that Isakson runs for re-election. From a personal standpoint regarding his own health, he really shouldn't have even ran again in 2016 (pre-diagnosis, I remember thinking "he must be dying because his appearance went downhill very quickly"); I'd say there's a greater than tiny chance he doesn't even make it through this entire term.

If there's any structure worth saving in the GAGOP anymore (and after a close 2018 race), then they're going to want to put their energy into somebody who's relatively young, telegenic, not prone to gaffes, and who is moderate by Georgia Republican standards. Of those with current positions of prominence, there's only one who fits the bill.

[Roll Roons]

Who will be the Republican front runner for Senate if Isakson retires in 2022? If Handel had won last year (and 2020) I would say her to combat the gender gap and hemorrhaging of Republican support in the Suburbs.... but she didn't.

I see no way that Isakson runs for re-election. From a personal standpoint regarding his own health, he really shouldn't have even ran again in 2016 (pre-diagnosis, I remember thinking "he must be dying because his appearance went downhill very quickly"); I'd say there's a greater than tiny chance he doesn't even make it through this entire term.

If there's any structure worth saving in the GAGOP anymore (and after a close 2018 race), then they're going to want to put their energy into somebody who's relatively young, telegenic, not prone to gaffes, and who is moderate by Georgia Republican standards. Of those with current positions of prominence, there's only one who fits the bill.

Maybe also Rob Woodall assuming he wins reelection in 2020.

[QAnonKelly]

Who will be the Republican front runner for Senate if Isakson retires in 2022? If Handel had won last year (and 2020) I would say her to combat the gender gap and hemorrhaging of Republican support in the Suburbs.... but she didn't.

Chris Carr?

[nolesfan2011]

Who will be the Republican front runner for Senate if Isakson retires in 2022? If Handel had won last year (and 2020) I would say her to combat the gender gap and hemorrhaging of Republican support in the Suburbs.... but she didn't.

I see no way that Isakson runs for re-election. From a personal standpoint regarding his own health, he really shouldn't have even ran again in 2016 (pre-diagnosis, I remember thinking "he must be dying because his appearance went downhill very quickly"); I'd say there's a greater than tiny chance he doesn't even make it through this entire term.

If there's any structure worth saving in the GAGOP anymore (and after a close 2018 race), then they're going to want to put their energy into somebody who's relatively young, telegenic, not prone to gaffes, and who is moderate by Georgia Republican standards. Of those with current positions of prominence, there's only one who fits the bill.

Maybe also Rob Woodall assuming he wins reelection in 2020.

On that note the first GA-07 candidate jumped in today

https://www.georgiapol.com/2019/01/21/marqus-cole-announces-for-ga-7/

I expect at least two more to follow pretty quickly

[Del Tachi]

Who will be the Republican front runner for Senate if Isakson retires in 2022? If Handel had won last year (and 2020) I would say her to combat the gender gap and hemorrhaging of Republican support in the Suburbs.... but she didn't.

Ideally Beth Beskin, but I'm pipe-dreaming

[nolesfan2011]

Abrams is probably running for Senate

https://www.thedailybeast.com/stacey-abrams-retools-her-dark-money-group

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams is probably running for Senate

https://www.thedailybeast.com/stacey-abrams-retools-her-dark-money-group

Yeah. Teresa Tomlinson has changed her language about the Senate seat saying that at the end of the day both her and Stacey's objective is to make sure a Democrat is in the seat. I mean.... I want Abrams to be Governor but she might as well do it. She has the wind at her back, starts out with 100% name ID (more than Perdue tbh), and the race immediately starts out as Tilt R/Toss-Up.

Any else seen that ad some PAC has been running telling Perdue to end the shutdown? Getting started on him early lol

[QAnonKelly]

Abrams is probably running for Senate

https://www.thedailybeast.com/stacey-abrams-retools-her-dark-money-group

Yeah. Teresa Tomlinson has changed her language about the Senate seat saying that at the end of the day both her and Stacey's objective is to make sure a Democrat is in the seat. I mean.... I want Abrams to be Governor but she might as well do it. She has the wind at her back, starts out with 100% name ID (more than Perdue tbh), and the race immediately starts out as Tilt R/Toss-Up.

Any else seen that ad some PAC has been running telling Perdue to end the shutdown? Getting started on him early lol

I saw it. You'd think he'd just vote for the clean CR bc of the super bowl. I think that's part of why Isakson did.

[Rookie Yinzer]

She’s obviously being heavily courted by National Democrats and could have changed her mind. The person who told us she was aiming for a rematch with Kemp was one of her allies in the state House. I’m sure it was true at the time but things change.

[Pollster]

If Abrams goes for the Senate in 2020, who goes for Governor in 2022? Tomlinson?