2020 Senate election: process and result

[😥]

                                 Analysis Maine Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 15 March 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 9 June 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1)Troy Jackson- Minority Leader of the Maine Senate
   2)Mark Eves- former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, 2018 gubernatorial candidate
2.Declined:
   1)Janet Mills- incumbent Governor
   2)Chellie Pingree- U.S. Representative
   3)Jared Golden- U.S. Representative

Democratic primary polling
T.Jackson---M.Eves---???        Date
        52               40         8      16/12-13/01
        
Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1)Susan Collins- incumbent Senator
   2)Bruce Poliquin- former U.S. Representative
2.Potential:
    Paul LePage- former Governor
3.Declined:
    Garett Mason- former Majority Leader of the Maine Senate

Republican primary polling
S.Collins---B.Poliquin---P.LePage---???          Date
       50                19                 26          5      16/12-13/01
       72                20                 ----          8      16/12-13/01
       39                29                 ----         32     17/12-21/12 (R-Poliquin)

Susan Collins approval rating
Approve: 1) 52%; 2) 52%; 3) 50%
Dissapprove: 1) 30%; 2) 42%; 3) 39%
Don't know: 1) 18%; 2) 6%; 3) 11%
1)June 2019
2)October 2019
3)January 2020

General election polling
S.Collins---T.Jackson---???          Date
       60                35            5      16/12-13/01
       59                30           11     02/01-13/01

No polls with other candidates


Rating:
Cook: Likely R
I.E.: Likely R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Likely R
CNN: Likely R
RCP: Likely R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Likely R



It was believed that if Collins retires then the place will be Likely D. But on January 2, Collins announced her decision to run. After this, Dems ceased to consider it as a potential Dems pick-up

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Is Collins trans now or did you make a typo?

[😥]

Is Collins trans now or did you make a typo?

I did not understand you, but if you asked for it, then Collins run

[😥]

                                   Analysis Massachusetts Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 8 August 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 5 May 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
   1)Niki Tsongas- former U.S. Representative
   2)Joe Kennedy III- U.S. Representative
2.Potential:
    Deval Patrick- former Governor
3.Declined:
   1)Katherine Clark- U.S. Representative
   2)Mike Capuano- former U.S. Representative
No polls at the moment

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1)Scott Brown- formet Senator
   2)Charlie Baker- incumbent Governor
No polls at the moment

Ed Markey approval rating
Approve: 1) 40%; 2) 44%; 3) 39%
Dissapprove: 1) 30%; 2) 31%; 3) 31%
Don't know: 1) 30%; 2) 25%; 3) 30%

General election polling
N.Tsongas---C.Baker---???       Date        N.Tsongas---S.Brown---???
         46               46        8    02/09-11/09         50                43         7
         45               48        7    12/10-30/10         51                43         6
         45               45       10   02/12-23/12         50                42         8
         44               48        8    02/01-13/01         50                44         6

J.Kennedy---C.Baker-???                          J.Kennedy---S.Brown---???
         47               48      5     12/10-30/10          53                41         6
         49               46      5     02/12-23/12          54                41         5
         47               47      6     02/01-13/01          52                42         6

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean D
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Lean D
RCP: Tilt D
Fox News: Tilt D
Daily Kos: Tilt D



Until recently, the race was considered Safe D, but after the introduction of the very popular governor, Charlie Baker, it instantly became rated Tossup.
But nobody could predict the GOP primary result, as Donald Trump launched his large-scale campaign for Scott Brown

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It was believed that if Collins retires then the place will be Likely D. But on January 2, Collins announced his decision to run. After this, Dems ceased to consider it as a potential Dems pick-up

Is Collins trans now or did you make a typo?

I did not understand you, but if you asked for it, then Collins run

I was talking about this.

[😥]

It was believed that if Collins retires then the place will be Likely D. But on January 2, Collins announced his decision to run. After this, Dems ceased to consider it as a potential Dems pick-up

Is Collins trans now or did you make a typo?

I did not understand you, but if you asked for it, then Collins run

I was talking about this.

Oh, sorry, I made a mistake.My bad

[Edgeofnight]

Tsongas is retiring, in part, because she's old and doesn't want to stay in DC. Also Scott Brown doesn't live in MA anymore, he lives in NH. Otherwise I find this interesting.

[😥]

Tsongas is retiring, in part, because she's old and doesn't want to stay in DC. Also Scott Brown doesn't live in MA anymore, he lives in NH. Otherwise I find this interesting.

I know, but with these candidates it will be more interesting

[😥]

                                  Analysis Michigan Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 4 August 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 21 April 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
    Gary Peters- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
   1)Gretchen Whitmer- incumbent Governor
   2)Debbie Dingell- U.S. Representative
   3)Brenda Lawrence- U.S. Representative

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
   1)Justin Amash- U.S. Representative
   2)Dave Trott- former U.S. Representative
2.Potential:
   John James- 2018 senatorial nominee
3.Declined:
   1)Bill Schuette- former Attorney General
   2)Rick Snyder- former Governor
   3)Fred Upton- U.S. Representative
Republican primary polling
J.Amash---D.Trott---???          Date
       57             35        8       06/12-10/12 (R-Amash)
       40             60       ----     18/12-02/01 (R-Trott)

Gary Peters approval rating
Approve: 1) 42%; 2) 43%; 3) 42%
Dissapprove: 1) 51%; 2) 50%; 3) 52%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 7%; 3) 6%

General election polling
G.Peters---J.Amash---???         Date          G.Peters---D.Trott---???
       40              52          8     06/12-10/12         48             43        9
                                               (R-Amash)
       47              47          6     10/12-23/12         46             46        8
       51              41          8     18/12-02/01         39             51       10
                                                  (R-Trott)
       45              45         10    02/01-13/01         47             47        6

Rating:
Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Tilt R
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tilt D
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tilt D
Daily Kos: Tilt R


Gary Peters was rather unpopular that was seen as a possible R pick-up, but a factor in presidential elections ... .In the GOP field, a moderate Dave Trott and Tea Party activist Justin Amash

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO, KS, NC are gone. Demi Moore-KS Generic Dem in CO and NC

[😥]

2018 Gubernatorial election results

D gain: AZ, FL, GA, IL, KS, ME, MI, NV, NM, OH, OK, WI
R gain: AK, OR, RI

1) Arizona
David Garcia (D) 48,3%
Doug Ducey (R) inc. 48,1%
2) Florida
Andrew Gillum (D) 48,3%
Ron DeSantis (R) 48,15%
3) Georgia
Stacey Abrams (D) 50,1%
Brian Kemp (R) 48,4%
4) Illinois
J.B. Pritzker (D) 45,4%
Bruce Rauner (R) inc. 39,8%
5) Iowa
Fred Hubbell (D) 47,3%
Kim Reynolds (R) inc. 46,4%
6) Kansas
Laura Kelly (D) 41,4%
Kris Kobach (R) 40,9%
Greg Orman (I) 16,9%
7) Maine
Janet Mills (D) 45,21%
Shawn Moody (R) 45,19%
Tery Hayes (I) 9,6%
Michigan
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 52,6%
Bill Schuette (R) 43,9%
9) Nevada
Steve Sisolak (D) 46,72%
Adam Laxalt (R) 46,67%
10) New Mexico
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 52,7%
Steve Pearce (R) 44,1%
11) Ohio
Richard Cordray (D) 49,1%
Mike DeWine (R) 48,0%
12) Oklahoma
Drew Edmundson (D) 50,2%
Kevin Stitt (R) 48,6%
13) Wisconsin
Tony Evers (D) 51,1%
Scott Walker (R) inc. 47,4%
14) Alaska
Mike Dunleavy (R) 34,3%
Bill Walker (I) inc. 33,1%
Mark Begich (D) 30,6%
15) Oregon
Knute Buehler (R) 49,2%
Kate Brown (D) inc. 48,6%
16) Rhode Island
Allan Fung (R) 47,2%
Gina Raimondo (D) inc. 45,4%

[😥]

2018 House results

D gain: AZ-2, CA-10, CA-25, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-6, FL-27, GA-7, IL-12, IA-1, IA-3, KS-2, KS-3, KY-6, ME-2, MI-8, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MT, NJ-2, NJ-3, NJ-11, NY-19, NY-22, NY-24, NC-2, NC-9, PA-5, PA-6, PA-7, PA-17, TX-7, TX-32, VA-2, VA-7, VA-10, WV-3

R gain: MN-1

D+38

D: 231 seats
R: 204 seats
Elected Speaker: Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

[OBD]

lol Knute

[Zaybay]

Not very realistic, but its still interesting. if I could make one change, its the idea that Baker would make the race a tossup. MA may be close on the state level, but in a 2020 senate election, with Baker, it would be likely D.

[😥]

Not very realistic, but its still interesting. if I could make one change, its the idea that Baker would make the race a tossup. MA may be close on the state level, but in a 2020 senate election, with Baker, it would be likely D.

I know it's not very realistic, but it will be more interesting, than making it extremely realistic

[😥]

                           Analysis Minnesota Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 11 August 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 2 June 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1)Tina Smith- incumbent Senator
   2)Keith Ellison- Attorney General, former U.S. Representativd
2.Declined:
   1)Tim Walz- incumbent Governor (endorsed Smith)
   2)Collin Peterson- U.S. Representative (endorsed Smith)
   3)Betty McCollum- U.S. Representative (endorsed Smith)
Democratic primary polling
T.Smith---K.Ellison---???            Date
      64            25          11       18/11-01/01

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1)Norm Coleman- former Senator
   2)Michele Bachmann- former U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Tim Pawlenty- former Governor, 2018 gubernatorial candidate
   2)Tom Emmer- U.S. Representative (endorsed Coleman)
Republican primary polling
N.Coleman---M.Bachmann---???           Date
        40                      41             19      06/11-19/11
        36                      35             29      18/11-01/01
        35                      40             25      02/01-13/01

Tina Smith approval rating
Approve: 1) 40%; 2) 38%; 3) 38%
Dissapprove: 1) 30%; 2) 30%; 3) 32%
Don't know: 1) 30%; 2) 32%; 3) 30%

General election polling
T.Smith---N.Coleman---???      Date             T.Smith-M.Bachmann-???
      48             45            7    04/09-13/09     49                 43          8
      48             46            6    16/09-02/10     48                 42         10
      47             47           6   12/10-18/10(R) 46                 44         10
      48             47            5    18/11-02/12     47                 42         11
      47             46            7    02/01-13/01     48                 43          9
No polls with K.Ellison

Rating:
Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Likely D
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tilt D
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Likely D (highest)
Daily Kos: Lean D


Former U.S. Senator Norm Coleman run for this seat against incumbent Tina Smith. He was considered a strong candidate, but not one that could surely have defeated an incumbent Senator

[😥]

                           Alasysis Mississippi Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 2 June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 28 February 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1)Mike Espy- former U.S. Representative, former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, 2018 candidate
   2)Howard Sherman- businessman, 2018 candidate
2.Declined:
   1)Jim Hood- incumbent Governor
   2)Bennie Thomson- U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Cindy Hyde-Smith- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
   1)Phil Bryant- former Governor
   2)Steven Pallazzo- U.S. Representative
   3)Gregg Harper- U.S. Representative

Cindy Hyde-Smith approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 48%
Dissapprove: 1) 39%; 2) 36%
Don't know: 1) 11%; 2) 16%
1)July 2019
2)November 2019

General election polling
C.Hyde-Smith---M.Espy---???         Date
           52            38        10      03/08-25/08
           54            37         9       11/10-22/10
           51            34        15      21/12-30/12
           54            35        11      02/01-13/01

C.Hyde-Smith---H.Sherman---???    
          29               10            51    10/11-25/11 (D-Sherman)

Rating:
Cook: Likely R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Likely R
NYT:  Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Likely R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Likely R


Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith was safe because she won the special election in 2018. From Democrats are now running again Mike Espy and 2018 Senatorial (I Class) Howard Sherman

[😥]

                                Anаlysis Montana Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 2 June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 9 March 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
    Brian Schweitzer-former Governor
2.Declined:
    Steve Bullock- incumbent Governor (running for President)

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
    Steve Daines- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
    Ryan Zinke- former U.S. Representative, U.S. Secretary of Interior
    Greg Gianforte-former U.S. Representative (run for election)

Steve Daines approval rating
Approve: 1) 43%; 2) 45%; 3) 45%
Dissapprove: 1) 43%; 2) 45%; 3) 44%
Don't know: 1) 14%; 2) 10%; 3) 11%

General election polling
S.Daines---B.Schweitzer---???            Date
       43                   52              5        18/02-28/02
       45                   49              6        11/09-30/09 (R-Daines)
       41                   53              6        12/10-25/10
       42                   53              5        26/10-25/12
       42                   53              5        03/12-21/12
       41                   52              7        02/01-13/01
  
Rating:
Cook: Tilt D
I.E.:  Tossup
Sabato: Tosup
NYT: Tilt D
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Lean D
Fox News: Lean D
Daily Kos: Tossup


Montana was a state where the GOP had a rather unpopular incumbent senator, and DP had a superbly strong candidate in the form of a popular former governor, Brian Schweitzer. It was rated as a potential D pick-up

[😥]

                           Analysis Nebraska Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 2 March 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 12 May 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared: none
2.Potential:
    Brad Ashford- former U.S. Representativе
3.Declined:
   1)Ben Nelson- former U.S. Senator
   2)Bob Kerrey- former U.S. Senator, 2012 nominee
   3)Kara Eastman- U.S. Representative

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
    Ben Sasse- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
   1)Chuck Hagel- former Senator, former U.S. Defence Secretary
   2)Adrian Smith- U.S. Representative

Ben Sasse approval rating
Approve: 1) 59%; 2) 60%; 3) 58%
Dissapprove: 1) 31%; 2) 32%; 3) 31%
Don't know: 1) 10%; 2) 8%; 3) 11%

General election polling
Hypotecial:
B.Sasse---B.Nelson---???       Date
     49            48         3   03/05-12/05

Rating:
Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe R

Many experts believed that the Democratic Party did not stand a candidate at all. The only potential candidate was Brad Ashford

[😥]

                           Analysis New Hampshire Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 12 June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 8 September 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
    Carol Shea-Porter- former U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Ann McLane Custer- U.S. Representative
   2)John Lynch- former Governor
   3)Jeanne Shaheen- incumbent Senator

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
    Kelly Ayotte- former Senator
2.Declined:
    Chris Sununu- incumbent Governor
    
Jeanne Shaheen approval rating
Approve: 1) 46%; 2) 48%
Dissapprove: 1) 39%; 2) 40%
Don't know: 1) 15%; 2) 12%

General election polling
C.Shea-Porter---K.Ayotte---???            Date
           45               43        12        22/08-13/09
           44               46        10        15/09-23/09
           43               46        11        20/09-30/09
           43               47        10        04/10-18/10
           46               43        11        19/11-18/12
           45               45        10        04/12-23/12
           46               46         8         02/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Tilt R
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Tossup


Jeanne Shaheen retired, citing age. Instead, the former U.S. Representative Democrat Carol Shea-Porter and former U.S. Senator Republican Kelly Ayotte drove into her place. The race was considered to be extremely competitive and one of the most expensive races in New Hampshire

[😥]

                          Analysis New Jersey Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 30 March 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 8 September 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
    Cory Booker- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
   1)Jeff Van Drew- U.S. Representative
   2)Frank Pallone- U.S. Reredentative
   3)Andy Kim- U.S Rspresentative

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
    Chris Christie- former Governor
2.Potential:
    Thomas Kean Jr.- Senate Minority leader
3.Declined:
   1)Leonard Lance- U.S. Representative
   2)Chris Smith- U.S Representative

Cory Booker approval rating
Approve: 1) 39%
Dissapprove: 1) 39%
Don't know: 1) 22%


General election polling
C.Booker---C.Christie---???          Date
       39            30        31      03/09-21/09
       42            30        28      18/09-01/10
       38            28        34      04/10-17/10
       40            31        29      10/10-15/10
       40            30        30      18/10-34/10
       52            40         8       12/12-21/12
       59            41        ----      19/12-03/01
       42            32        26       02/01-13/01  

Rating:
Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean D
NYT: Tilt D
CNN: Lean D
RCP: Lean D
Fox News: Lean D
Daily Kos: Likely D


These elections were similar to those of a moderately unpopular Senator and a more unpopular former governor

[😥]

                                Alasysis New Mexico Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 2 June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 10 March 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Tom Udall- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
   1)Michelle Lujan Grisham- incumbent Governor
   2)Deb Haaland- U.S. Representative
   3)Ben Ray Lujan- U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Craig Brandt- state Senator
2.Declined:
   1)Susana Martinez- former Governor
   2)Yvette Herrell- U.S. Representative

Tom Udall approval rating
Approve: 1) 51%; 2) 52%
Dissapprove: 1) 39%; 2) 39%
Don't know: 1) 10%; 2) 9%

General election polling
T.Udall---C.Brandt---???           Date
     63             30          7       28/08-10/09
     65             25         10      02/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Likely D (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe D


New Mexico was considered Safe D, even because the GOP did not have a strong candidate, but had a weak candidate. And accordingly, New Mexico was Safe D state, the more in the presidential year

[😥]

                                 Analysis North Carolina Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 27 February 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 5 May 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1)Anthony Foxx- former U.S. Secretary of Transportation
   2)Jeff Jackson- state Senator
2.Declined:
   1)Roy Cooper- incumbent Governor
   2)Kay Hagan- former Senator
   3)Dan McCready- U.S. Representative
Democratic primary polling
A.Foxx---J.Jackson---???        Date
     52               40           8      18/09-21/09(D-Foxx)
     47               44           9      01/10-11/10
     41               49          10     12/10-17/10(D-Jackson)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Thom Tillis- incumbent Senator
2.Potential:
    Richard Hudson- U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1)Mark Meadows- U.S. Representative
   2)George Holding- U.S. Representative
   3)Dan Forest- incumbent Lieutenant Governor
No polls

Thom Tillis approval rating
Approve: 1) 43%; 2) 46%
Dissapprove: 1) 44%; 2) 42%
Don't know: 1) 13%; 2) 14%
1) January 2019
2) July 2019

General elections polling
T.Tillis---A.Foxx---???            Date          T.Tillis-J.Jackson---???
     41            45      14      01/03-15/03   -----------------------------------
     42            45      13      18/04-26/05        41            44          14
     40            44      15      19/09-28/09        39            43          17
     43            46      11      02/10-19/10        45            45          10
     45            45      10      09/10-18/10        44            45          11
     45            47       8       23/10-09/11        44            46          10
     44            44      12      11/11-01/12        45            45          10
     46            47       7       15/12-27/12        45            46           9
     46            46       8       02/01-13/01        46            46           8

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Lean D
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup


North Carolina was an extremely competitive race. Thom Tillis was considered a vulnerable senator, but the longer the fight between the two strong Democratic candidates was, the more Tillis scored the ratings

[😥]

                                  Alasysis Oklahoma Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 23 June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 10 April 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1)Meloyde Blancett- state Representative
   2)Collin Walke- state Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Drew Edmundson- incumbent Governor
   2)Dan Boren- former U.S. Representative, son of David Boren
   3)Brad Henry- former Governor
No polls

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1)Steve Russell- U.S. Representative
   2)Scott Pruitt- former EPA Administrator, former Oklahoma AG
2.Potential:
    Markwayne Mullin- U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1)Frank Lucas- U.S. Representative
   2)Todd Lamb- former Lieutenant Governor
   3)Jim Inhofe- incumbent Senator
Republican primary polling
S.Russell---S.Pruitt---M.Mullin---???         Date
       30              30              27         13    
       47              45              ---           8      04/11-18/11
       44               ---               45          9
    
Jim Inhofe approval rating
Approve: 1) 35%; 2) 40%
Dissapprove: 1) 25%; 2) 31%
Don't know: 1) 40%; 2) 29%
1)January 2019
2)July 2019

General election polling
No polls

Rating:
Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe R


Оne of the most conservative members of the Senate Jim Inhofe retires. Previously, there were three potential Democrat candidates: Edmondson, Henry, Boren, all of them were popular politicians, but they all declined. Perhaps because it is the presidential year and the DP there is no chance of flipping this place
  

[😥]

                                 Analysis Oregon Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 10 March 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 19 May 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Kurt Schrader- U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Jeff Merkley- incumbent Senator
   2)Suzanne Bunamici- U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Knute Buehler- incumbent Governor
2.Declined:
    Greg Walden- U.S. Representative

Jeff Merkley approval rating
Approve: 1) 54%; 2) 52%
Dissapprove: 1) 32%; 2) 37%
Don't know: 1) 14%; 2) 11%
1)January 2019
2)July 2019

General election polling
K.Schrader---K.Buehler---???            Date
         42                  45         13      03/08-16/08
         44                  44         12      12/08-23/08
         44                  45         11      04/09-14/09
         45                  44         11      18/10-27/10
         46                  45          9       25/10-04/11
         45                  45         10      08/11-17/11
         45                  46          9       13/11-20/11
         46                  46          8       23/11-30/11
         45                  46          9       04/12-17/12
         47                  45          8       10/12-20/12
         46                  45          9       12/12-19/12
         47                  44          9       15/12-30/12
         46                  46          8       02/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup


Jeff Merkley retires to run for president. After a sensational victory of Knute Buehler in 2018, he became a popular governor. This year he decided to run for the Senate, which instantly made the race as Tossup