GOP primary rigging megathread

[Mr. Morden]

The South Carolina GOP has now made it official: No Republican primary for president in the state next year:

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-republicans-vote-to-forgo-gop-presidential-primary-setting-up/article_96d05722-d0d6-11e9-9771-6ba2d039a3e4.html

The South Carolina Republican Party executive committee voted almost unanimously Saturday to forgo their GOP presidential primary next year, clearing the way for President Donald Trump to receive all of the state’s nominating delegates without contest.
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During a meeting Saturday in Columbia, the S.C. GOP executive committee decided by voice vote not to hold a primary. Only one voice could be heard voting against the idea.

S.C. GOP chairman Drew McKissick cited the public cost of the primary as the top reason for scrapping it. Holding a Republican presidential preference primary would cost South Carolina taxpayers an estimated $1.2 million, according to S.C. Election Commission spokesman Chris Whitmire.

Now waiting to see if Nevada follows suit.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Kansas also cancelled their caucus yesterday:

https://twitter.com/Melissa_Brunner/status/1170040100480311296

[Mr. Morden]

The Nevada GOP has now joined in cancelling their caucuses:

https://www.newser.com/article/f9b91b5614da4760bcb4875bb508af77/nevada-sc-kansas-gop-drop-presidential-nomination-votes.html

A similar move followed in Nevada, where party spokesman Keith Schipper said, "The vote to opt out of the caucus has passed. We will vote to endorse and bind the delegates to the President at a later date."

So the presumed primary calendar on the GOP side will go Iowa caucuses, then NH primary a week later, then Super Tuesday three weeks later (featuring CA, TX, and several other states.....though in the event that Trump is actually kept off the ballot in CA due to the new law requiring candidates to release their taxes, I would assume that the CA primary won't end up counting towards delegate allocation, because the CA GOP isn't likely to allow a primary to award delegates if Trump is excluded from the ballot).

This all assumes that the New York legislature does as expected and moves the primary there to a later date.  State law currently puts it in February, and in the unlikely event that it stays there, it would come before Super Tuesday but would suffer delegate penalties for going earlier than party rules allow.

[Mr. Morden]

The California GOP has passed a rule change that would allow the state party to hold a special convention after the primary in order to award delegates to the RNC, in the event that Trump doesn't appear on the primary ballot:

https://apnews.com/ee5adc940b0f48c498751d8df9642478

It's a response to California's new law that would block presidential candidates from appearing on the ballot if they don't release their tax returns.  In the event that the law isn't struck down in court, then Trump will presumably opt not to file for the primary in California, but there would still be a Republican primary with Sanford, Weld, etc., assuming they qualify for the ballot.  But the Trump-less GOP primary wouldn't actually count for delegate allocation, given this rule change, since the state party would ignore the primary results and award the delegates on their own.

[SteveRogers]

The California GOP has passed a rule change that would allow the state party to hold a special convention after the primary in order to award delegates to the RNC, in the event that Trump doesn't appear on the primary ballot:

https://apnews.com/ee5adc940b0f48c498751d8df9642478

It's a response to California's new law that would block presidential candidates from appearing on the ballot if they don't release their tax returns.  In the event that the law isn't struck down in court, then Trump will presumably opt not to file for the primary in California, but there would still be a Republican primary with Sanford, Weld, etc., assuming they qualify for the ballot.  But the Trump-less GOP primary wouldn't actually count for delegate allocation, given this rule change, since the state party would ignore the primary results and award the delegates on their own.

Haha what a bunch of fragile snowflakes.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Not sure why primaries would be cancelled, but unless we go into a major recession (not a mere temporary downturn) and stay in one, Trump has no chance of being primaried. Particularly as neither Walsh or Weld make a compelling choice for an alternative, and anyone who believes so is deluding themselves.

If Trump's inner circle knows he is not well (and will likely be much worse by the time primary season arrives) then cancelling primaries make perfect sense, either to force a failing Donald Trump as the nominee or to play some sort of shenanigans with the nomination.

[Brittain33]

I agree that substantively it’s not a big deal that republicans are skipping the primaries but it’s going to drive Trump nuts that the Dems will get all of the media attention next spring as a result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not sure why primaries would be cancelled, but unless we go into a major recession (not a mere temporary downturn) and stay in one, Trump has no chance of being primaried. Particularly as neither Walsh or Weld make a compelling choice for an alternative, and anyone who believes so is deluding themselves.

Sanford I can actually see being the most legitimate of the 3 if he decides to run, but very few voters truly care about deficits and unfunded liabilities.  People making parallels to Ford's and Carter's primary challengers need to realize this:  Reagan was a charismatic and popular 2 term governor of a large state, and Ted Kennedy was a charismatic and popular 2 term senator of a large state.  Who among the big names in the GOP come anything close to that and would also consider primaring Trump?  Kasich would be the closest, but isn't nearly as popular as Reagan 76 or Kennedy 80.  Nikki Haley is still backing the administration.

Trump has no chance of losing the primary, but the attacks from challengers within the primary may weaken him.

[Mr. Morden]

I agree that substantively it’s not a big deal that republicans are skipping the primaries but it’s going to drive Trump nuts that the Dems will get all of the media attention next spring as a result.

Most Republican primaries are still going to happen, since they're state run, and the GOP can't do anything to stop them (and the Iowa GOP is also going ahead with a caucus, presumably for symbolic reasons to assert its primacy in the calendar).  We'll still have an Iowa Republican caucus, a New Hampshire Republican primary.  Nevada and South Carolina are being skipped on the GOP side, but then the majority of Super Tuesday states will still have Republican primaries, and there's nothing the state parties can do about that.  There'll probably be more cases where they make the primaries meaningless by not having them allocate delegates, but the votes will still happen.

The next thing to look for though is where the state parties will try to block Trump's challengers from appearing on the ballot.  They can't stop the primaries in most states, but there are some where they can try to keep the challengers off the ballot.  E.g., I believe in Florida the state parties submit a list of candidates they want on the ballot, so the Florida GOP could just submit Trump's name and no one else's.  Not sure if there's any recourse for the candidates to appeal that decision, or get on the ballot some other way.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The California GOP has passed a rule change that would allow the state party to hold a special convention after the primary in order to award delegates to the RNC, in the event that Trump doesn't appear on the primary ballot:

https://apnews.com/ee5adc940b0f48c498751d8df9642478

It's a response to California's new law that would block presidential candidates from appearing on the ballot if they don't release their tax returns.  In the event that the law isn't struck down in court, then Trump will presumably opt not to file for the primary in California, but there would still be a Republican primary with Sanford, Weld, etc., assuming they qualify for the ballot.  But the Trump-less GOP primary wouldn't actually count for delegate allocation, given this rule change, since the state party would ignore the primary results and award the delegates on their own.

Haha what a bunch of fragile snowflakes.

There's no reason a party should have to award delegates for a primary in which some candidates are arbitrarily excluded.

[SteveRogers]

The California GOP has passed a rule change that would allow the state party to hold a special convention after the primary in order to award delegates to the RNC, in the event that Trump doesn't appear on the primary ballot:

https://apnews.com/ee5adc940b0f48c498751d8df9642478

It's a response to California's new law that would block presidential candidates from appearing on the ballot if they don't release their tax returns.  In the event that the law isn't struck down in court, then Trump will presumably opt not to file for the primary in California, but there would still be a Republican primary with Sanford, Weld, etc., assuming they qualify for the ballot.  But the Trump-less GOP primary wouldn't actually count for delegate allocation, given this rule change, since the state party would ignore the primary results and award the delegates on their own.

Haha what a bunch of fragile snowflakes.

There's no reason a party should have to award delegates for a primary in which some candidates are arbitrarily excluded.

Trump hasn’t been excluded from the California primary. He is perfectly capable of easily qualifying for the ballot. He just doesn’t want to.

[Mr. Morden]

The Arizona GOP makes it official:

https://www.knau.org/post/arizona-gop-scraps-2020-presidential-party

Arizona Republicans are scrapping their 2020 primary, joining GOP leaders in three other states that are forgoing a presidential nominating contest as President Donald Trump seeks re-election.

State GOP Chairman Kelli Ward told election officials Monday about the party's decision. Arizona joins Nevada, South Carolina and Kansas in skipping primaries or caucuses next year.

[Mr. Morden]

Virginia Republicans have also opted out of the state's primary, and will just elect their delegates to the RNC at a state convention:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2019/09/virginia-republicans-will-hold-2020.html

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Virginia Republicans have also opted out of the state's primary, and will just elect their delegates to the RNC at a state convention:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2019/09/virginia-republicans-will-hold-2020.html

Disappointing but completely unsurprising.  Looks like they decided this back in June.
At least they (narrowly) voted to allow a primary for the 2020 Senate race.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.ktuu.com/content/news/Alaska-Republican-Party-cancels-Presidential-Preference-Poll-560997931.html

The Alaska Republican Party announced Saturday that it will not hold a Presidential Preference Poll in 2020, declaring support instead for the re-election of President Trump.

In a brief written statement, ARP said its State Central Committee determined Saturday that "conducting a PPP would serve no useful purpose when we have an incumbent Republican president, such as President Trump, running for the Republican nomination for President."

[pbrower2a]

Under Trump we see the Republican party adopting the Commie practice of democratic centralism -- meaning that all decisions once made by the Party are permanent and never to be challenged. Any semblance of democracy is dead in the GOP.

The Party of Lincoln has become a fascistic party in its procedure as well as its ideology.   

[Former President tack50]

https://twitter.com/KSoltisAnderson/status/1167047544704294914

Obama did come close to losing some primaries, most notably WV to some random person in jail.

What would be the Trump equivalent of that? Winning Utah by only 62-38?

[Kleine Scheiße]

Bernie also was in favor of a progressive challenger to Obama in 2012 to supposedly energize the party.

[Mr. Morden]

Bob Inglis, along with another Republican official in South Carolina, have filed a lawsuit against the South Carolina GOP, saying that the state party violated its own rules by the manner in which they cancelled the primary:

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/south-carolina-republican-party-sued-for-canceling-its-gop-primary/article_33891534-e452-11e9-9a8b-7b4072b62d5e.html

The lawsuit, filed Tuesday in state court in Richland County, alleges the party scrapped its 2020 election contest illegally and violated party rules and state election law.

The suit further contends the near-unanimous decision made by the party’s Executive Committee deprives Inglis, of Greenville, and fellow plaintiff Frank Heindel of Mount Pleasant, of their right to vote for the candidate of their choosing in a primary.
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The 26-page suit, however, alleges the party broke its own rules. The complaint cites Rule 11(b)(1), which states that “Unless decided otherwise by the state party convention within two years prior to each presidential election year, the  ... party shall conduct a statewide presidential preference primary on a date selected by the chairman of the party and this date must be within two weeks after the New Hampshire Republican Primary, or earlier if necessary to preserve South Carolina’s ‘First in the South’ status.”

When Republicans met for their state convention in March, they did not vote on holding a presidential primary.

The lawsuit additionally alleges Republicans broke state law that requires political parties to follow their own rules.

In other news, today is the deadline for state parties to tell the RNC how they plan to allocate delegates next year, so we may get more clarity on whether other states will opt out of primaries or caucuses.  OTOH, many of the caucus states never bound delegates to presidential preference votes in the first place, so if more of them end up cancelling the preference vote like Alaska did, that might not yet be announced.

[HAnnA MArin County]

It’s nice to see Republicans finally embracing their fascist predilections.

[Mr. Morden]

I’ve mentioned before that most of the GOP primary cancellations are in small to medium sized states where the number of delegates at stake is modest, whereas the biggest states are still holding primaries.  In that vein, the Florida GOP is tentatively going ahead with holding a primary next year:

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20190930/florida-gop-chair-says-republican-primary-on-challengers-will-be-annihilated

*However*, as Josh Putnam notes here:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2019/10/florida-gop-eschews-presidential.html

Florida does have a law on the books that cancels the primary if only one candidate qualifies for the ballot.  And the decision for who gets onto the ballot is determined by the state party itself.  (They have until Nov. 30th to decide who makes it.)  So there’s still a chance that the GOP primary gets cancelled there if the state GOP plays hardball and just declares that they don’t want Sanford, Walsh, or Weld on the ballot, though based on the comments by FL GOP chair Joe Grutens, it sounds like they’re probably going to allow the challengers onto the ballot.