FL-Sen: FAU poll Finds Scott (R) Ahead 45-39 Over Nelson (D-inc)

[President Johnson]

You have to be really talented to manage to lose a race as an incumbent Democrat in a swing state in a blue-leaning year.

May I introduce to you...the Florida Democratic Party!

Really the party? Nelson outperformed Obama in 2012 by a lot. It just seems that he's not running a good campaign this year and Scott is running a good one. At this point, Nelson seems more likely to lose than Donnelly or McCaskill, what shouldn't be the case.

[IceSpear]

So considering these guys were off by 15 points in the D primary and 19 points in the R primary, maybe we should take their GE results with a pillar of salt. Just a thought.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So considering these guys were off by 15 points in the D primary and 19 points in the R primary, maybe we should take their GE results with a pillar of salt. Just a thought.

This.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

They only put trump at -2 net approval. Now's not the time to panic.

[Brittain33]

They only put trump at -2 net approval. Now's not the time to panic.

Trump's approval in Florida has been tracking atypically high relative to the country.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

They only put trump at -2 net approval. Now's not the time to panic.

Trump's approval in Florida has been tracking atypically high relative to the country.

Not according to wherever pbrower got his(?) data. I mean, it seems off. Like, is there something about the hurricane displacing people which weakens polls?

Wow! I can't believe how quickly the polls are coming in. Maybe some pollsters wanted to calibrate themselves on the  weekend before the verdict on Paul Man O' Fraud. This weekend we will see the results of the legal problems of Paul Man O' Fraud and (even worse) Michael Cohen, former personal lawyer to Donald Trump (and he will be a former attorney due to the felony conviction which will disbar him).

Pennsylvania: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 713 registered voters

Approve 37 (strongly 25)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 42)

Casey +15, Wolf +14 in this poll

   

I'd love to see the re-elect/do not re-elect numbers for Pennsylvania as I have for AZ, FL, MI, MN, OH, and WI (NH is a different pollster)... but Marist did not poll that. It would probably be horrid.

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.