MI GOV:WJML/Strategic National—Whitmer +9

[South Dakota Democrat]

OH + IA are next.

Annoying that there are almost no polls from these 2 states.

Think Dems have a chance in IA?

I think so.

The last poll there is half a year old, but in the meantime Democrats have made huge voter registration gains and almost closed the gap with the Republicans there, after being down 70.000 voters a few months ago. And Gov. Reynolds (R) has only approval ratings that are slightly above water. Plus, Hubbell (D) is well-funded.

I think the next polls will show a close-ish race.

What an evening it would be if the Dems swept all of the Midwestern gubernatorial races (with the exception of SD and NE of course)!

I expect Noem in SD to win by about 10 points, a win but a significant underperformance (Daugaard won by 45 points in 2014).  There's been one poll of the race, and it showed Noem ahead by 4, but I think a 10 point margin sounds about right in the end - Sutton is a better recruit than normal in SD, by a long shot, but will still fall short.