November 2020 and beyond, election madness

[NewYorkExpress]

Prolouge

Election Night 2020 was here. President Trump had fended off a primary challenge from Former Ohio Governor (and 2016 candidate) John Kasich with relative ease, with Kasich only cracking 35% in Ohio and New Hampshire. As expected Vice President Pence rounded out the ticket.

Democrats meanwhile narrowly avoided a brokered convention, as the top two contenders, Senator Kamala Harris, and Senator Elizabeth Warren were even in delegates and almost 700 delegates below the threshold to secure the nomination. However, Harris suspended her campaign three days before the convention and endorsed Warren, leading to speculation about a backroom deal involving the Vice Presidency (or possibly the Attorney General's position). With almost no time to pick a running mate, Warren unveiled her choice the first night of the DNC, to be Senator Catherine Cortez Masto.

From the minute after the conventions ended, it was clear President Trump was in trouble, with polls showing him down anywhere from 7-9 points, and some polls showing him only holding on to his base and nothing more.

Minor Parties also put up solid candidates, mostly hurting Trump. The Green Party nominated nominated 2016 Vice Presidential nominee Ajamu Baraka, the Libertarians nominated two-time Alaska Senate nominee Joe Miller (who defeated Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 Republican Primary, and was the Libertarian nominee in 2016), and the Constitution Party nominated 2016 nominee Darrell Castle, all of whom were expected to get at least 0.5-2% Nationally. Despite speculation of a Kasich, Evan McMullin, Michael Bloomberg or Mark Cuban Independent campaign, no such campaign occurred.

2018 Results

Senate

Democrats pickup Nevada, Arizona, Texas and Tennessee

Republicans Pick up Florida and Indiana.

House

Democrats gain 61 seats, Nancy Pelosi remains Speaker (Her status for re-election in 2020 is to be revealed later)

Governor

Democrats gain Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

Republicans gain Connecticut, Alaska and Rhode Island.

2019 Flashback/Results

Louisiana-Governor

John Bel Edwards was considered a possible Presidential candidate in 2020, but in order to do that he would have to not run for re-election. There was one other possibility in 2020, in that he might challenge Bill Cassidy for re-election, but again he would need to not run for re-election as Governor. However he declined to do either of those things, and instead announced he would run for re-election on New Year's Eve 2018. He faced two strong Republicans in Former Governor (and failed 2016 Presidential candidate) Bobby Jindal and Lafayette Parish City-President Joel Robideaux, while one significant Democrat also filed in former Shreveport Mayor Cedric Glover. In the Election Day Jungle Primary, Bel Edwards narrowly made it above the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff, securing 50.76% of the vote to 33% for Jindal, 10.24% for Robideaux and 5% for Glover.

Mississippi-Governor

With Phil Bryant term-limited, Republicans set themselves up for a bruising primary in the Magnolia State. What they got were two big names, and one third wheel. The candidates were Former Senator Trent Lott, Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves and Petal Mayor Hal Marx. While Trump endorsed Lott, many elements in the White House as well as outside it, like Ben Carson, Mitch McConnell, Greg Abbott, and RGA chair Charlie Baker either rooted for or endorsed Reeves, fearing Lott's previous racial insensitivity would cost them the seat. While Trump's endorsement of Lott surprised both his supporters and many in Mississippi (and some called Trump a hypocrite, as Lott was a true swamp rat, having served as a lobbyist since 2008), it ultimately didn't sway an primary where most thought Reeves was favored. Reeves won with 51% of the vote, to Lott's 41% and Marx's 6%. 

Democrat's had only one candidate who could possibly win the seat in Attorney General Jim Hood, and they got their man. He won the primary, essentially unopposed, winning 98.7% of the vote against a bunch of yahoos, and advanced to a November general against Reeves. While the dynamics of the state were against Hood, and Trump still had an above water approval rating (48-44 on Election Day 2019 according to a Fox News exit Poll), Hood was personally popular, and was either ahead or narrowly behind in all polls. In the only poll the mattered-the one the voters cast, Hood defeated Reeves 50-49.

Kentucky

Despite Matt Bevin's unpopularity most assumed he would run for re-election. However, when he announced in early 2019 that he would not run for a second term, that set off intense speculation as to why, including speculation about Mitch McConnell's future, as most observers assumed Bevin would only make this move if he were planning to run for McConnell's Senate seat.

Republicans had trouble early on finding a candidate to replace Bevin, especially when Lieutenant Governor Jenean Hampton passed on running, instead announcing a bid for Secretary of State, which also did not have a competent Republican running. Instead, Republicans were forced to turn to the late entry from former Congresswoman Anne Northrup, who had previously run for Governor in 2007, lest they have no credible candidate on the ballot.

Democrats also had one notable candidate on the ballot, Attorney General Andy Beshear. However, unlike Northrup, his candidacy was disciplined, and focused, and as a result Beshear easily defeated Northrup 55-43 for an easy Democratic pickup. The main reasons for Beshear's victory, according to a Fox News exit poll, were the middling popularity of President Trump (44-45) and the unpopularity of Governor Bevin (39-51). That said, Republicans didn't get shut out by any stretch, as Jeanan Hampton won the Secretary of State race, and Former State Senator Sara Beth Gregory was elected Attorney General, both gains for Republicans.

[NewYorkExpress]

Indiana

President

Unlike Barack Obama's 2008 campaign, the Warren campaign had barely contested Indiana, leading to surprise when three polls showed up in early October that showed her down by a margin of between 2-3 points. While Trump did not campaign here, Vice President Pence, who was previously Governor here, was forced to make campaign stops across the state several times in October, diverting resources from other more important states. In the end, that probably saved the state for the Trump campaign, as the incumbent pulled off a narrow 49-46 victory.

Governor

 Eric Holcomb was running for a second term. While Holcomb wasn't particularly unpopular, he was hurt by the unusually close race for President atop the ticket. Democrats nominated South Bend Mayor Pete Buttgeig, who had spent much of 2019 (and part of January 2020) running for President, ultimately dropping out in favor of this race two weeks before the Iowa Caucus. With Buttgeig seeking to become the first LBGTQ Governor of Indiana, there was the potential for trouble, and while Vice President Pence didn't address it, preferring to focus on the top of the ticket, Buttgeig was hit attacks regarding his sexuality from both a PAC supporting Holcomb, and Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch. The attacks largely backfired, and combined with the unusually close race, led to Buttgeig winning 52-45 over Holcomb, and setting himself up nicely for either a Senate bid against Mike Braun in 2024 or a Presidential bid in 2024 or beyond.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Jackie Walorski had narrowly survived the 2018 wave, but with a close Presidential race, plus South Bend Mayor Buttgeig on the Gubernatorial ballot, she was in trouble this time around. Democrats nominated South Bend City Councilman John Voorde to face her. Despite initially targeting this race in 2018, Democrats originally did not target Walorski...at least until Voorde announced he was running. At that point the DCCC put it's resources into the race, and with a close Presidential election atop the ballot, and South Bend natives in Buttgeig and Voorde at the next two levels, Walorski never stood a chance, losing 55-42 for the first Democratic gain in the house of the night, though it would be far from the only one.

Fifth Congressional District

President Trump was massively unpopular in this wealthy district, and local Democrats sensed an opportunity here, a feeling that amplified when Congresswoman Susan Brooks opted not to run for reelection. Republicans nominated Carmel Mayor James Brainerd, while Democrats nominated Marion Mayor Jess Alumbaugh. While the race was close at first, and kept close by the close Presidential race atop the ticket, Brainerd was better known to residents of his district (Carmel was the largest full city in the district...only the partial population of Kokomo was larger) and as a result held the seat for Republicans 53-44.

Ninth Congressional District

Liz Watson had defeated Trey Hollingsworth in 2018, and now in turn faced a stiff challenge from the Republicans who placed this district on their target list. Their nominee was State Assemblywoman Holli Sullivan. Sullivan represented a stiff challenge to Watson, and she even started out with a comfortable lead, but as the Presidential race tightened, and the Gubernatorial race started to slip away from Holcomb, this race tightened as well, until finally Watson took the lead, and held the seat for Democrats 49-48.4.

Kentucky

President
Unlike Indiana, the Presidential race in Kentucky was never much in doubt. Neither Warren or Trump bothered to campaign here, and all polls showed Trump ahead by 20 or more points. In the end, Trump won 57-37, a lower top percentage, but still a commanding victory. What truly mystified some observers was 5.72% of the vote going to a write-in campaign run by supporters of Rand Paul (and not backed by Paul himself), instead of the actual Libertarian nominee, Joe Miller.

Senate

As suspected when Matt Bevin announced he would not seek re-election as Governor, Mitch McConnell, announced he would not seek another term as Senator in December of 2019. Three days after that announcement (which set off a leadership scramble among senior Republican Senators), Bevin announced he would run, and he easily secured the nomination.

Democrats meanwhile also had a strong nominee, as former Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes was back for another go round. Grimes, in some ways was better off not facing McConnell, but Trump's strong performance in Kentucky was going to create a headwind for her. The one saving grace she had, was that Bevin remained unpopular (42-50 according to CNN/ORC as of an Election Day Exit Poll), and that possibly would be enough for an upset win. The campaign was nasty, with mean-spirited attacks coming from both sides (and in Bevin's case downright openly sexist attacks). However, the general mood of the state was that a Democrat was better served representing Kentucky in the Senate (it helped that McConnell, no doubt remembering his own primary challenge from Bevin spent months looking for a primary challenger, and refused to endorse Bevin), and Grimes picked up the seat this time 50-48.

House of Representatives

Sixth Congressional District

Amy McGrath had delivered a double stunner, first pulling off an upset in the Democratic Primary then defeating Andy Barr in the General Election in 2018. Now Republicans were out for revenge, and with Trump still expected to win the district, they thought they had decent shot at doing so. Their nominee was State Representative David Hale, and with Trump's big margin, and despite Lundergan Grimes carrying the district, ran a tight disciplined campaign, outraised McGrath, outspent McGrath and outworked McGrath, leading to a 50-46 win and a Republican gain.

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump under 50% in IN means landslide for Warren nationally, I think. Keep it coming!

Maybe.

Remember, Obama actually won Indiana in 2008, so don't bet on a landslide yet...

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump under 50% in IN means landslide for Warren nationally, I think. Keep it coming!

Maybe.

Remember, Obama actually won Indiana in 2008, so don't bet on a landslide yet...

Either way, it is going to be a close one. Probably a race decided within five points in popular vote. Like a discussion point earlier though, if any democrat wins the popular vote by 2 percent or less, it's a instant Trump victory. Any Trump popular vote victory at all is a electoral Trump landslide.

How did Trump barely winning Indiana give you an indication that it's going to be a close one?

Yeah, Trump barely won the 2016 election but won Indiana by over 19 points. If there's a uniform 16 point swing away from Trump nationwide, then Trump loses the popular vote by 18 and barely holds on to Mississippi. Trump wouldn't even crack 60% in Wyoming.

Warren/Cortez Masto: 56.2%, 425 Electoral Votes
Trump/Pence: 38.1%, 113 Electoral Votes

I'll tell you this much... there won't be a truly uniform swing.

[NewYorkExpress]

Vermont

President

There were only two real questions regarding Vermont. Which Democrat would Bernie Sanders endorse, after he decided not to run (he ultimately backed Warren, a month before the convention, and was widely considered a key reason as to why Kamala Harris ultimately decided not to contest the convention), and whether a deeply unpopular President Trump would even crack 25% of the vote. With no significant campaigning going on here after the conventions (or after the Primaries for that matter), that seemed quite possible, even though Trump had netted just under 30% of the vote in 2016. However his approvals were even worse in 2020, and Warren literally lived right next door in Massachusetts, leading to a perfect storm for a ludicrous 79-19 margin for her.

Governor

Phil Scott had won election in the difficult year of 2016, then comfortably beaten Christine Hallquist in 2018 (another difficult year for Republicans), but 2020 was shaping up to be a disaster of historic proportion, and he wanted no part of it. As such, he announced in June of 2019 that he would not run for re-election. Republicans weren't completely left in the cold, as they got one of the few candidates that could theoretically hold the seat in former Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie to run, and he easily secured the nomination.

Democrats, meanwhile had a contested primary between Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger and Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman who was also running on the Vermont Progressive Party line...the Vermont Progressive Party had pledged not to run a candidate if Zuckerman won the Democratic nomination. Weinberger cried foul, and sued the Vermont Progressive Party, but ended up losing in court. In the end though he had the last laugh, as he defeated Zuckerman in the primary 52-47.7.

Dubie ran a strong general election campaign, but the headwinds were just to far against him, as Weinberger won for a Democratic pickup 55-42.

At-Large Congressional District

Peter Welch had been reelected handily in 2018, as usual, and enjoyed being in the majority, but he was not pleased with his committee assignments (Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer had the bright idea to  put him on the House Intelligence Committee, something he did not want to do). As such, he promptly announced he would not run for re-election. Democrats nominated Attorney General T.J Donavan, while Republicans hemmed and hawed on a candidate, ultimately settling on 2016 State House of Representatives nominee Ronald Boucher (who had been one of two nominees in Rutland-2, the other being an incumbent). Everyone expected a massive blowout, but Boucher worked his tail off, and Donavan ran a lazy and undisciplined campaign, and as a result won the seat by "only" a 59-38 margin.

South Carolina

President

While neither Warren nor Trump personally campaigned in South Carolina (at least not after the primary), polls showed Trump with a narrow lead in late September and throughout October (anywhere between 2-6 points, depending on the poll). While, Trump forced to defend so many states, didn't pay attention here, Warren sent both Barack and Michelle Obama here in the final weeks of the campaign. However, this proved to be a tactical blunder, as the Obama's were unpopular (and that was charitable) with white voters. As a result Trump won in the Palmetto State, by an admittedly unconvincing 50.05-46.49 margin.

Senate

Lindsey Graham had faced primary challenges each of the last two cycles, and this time looked like it would be no different. However Graham beat his challengers to the punch by announcing his retirement during the summer of 2019. Republicans had a contested primary between Attorney General Alan Wilson and South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick. Wilson used his superior name recognition to secure an easy 61-36 victory.

Democrats meanwhile nominated State Senator, and 2010/2014 nominee for Governor Vincent Sheheen. Sheheen ran a solid campaign, but, unlike in Kentucky, Republicans were favored, and Sheheen was a weaker candidate than Alison Ludergan Grimes. Despite the unusually close Presidential race, Wilson won by a comfortable 54-43 margin.

House of Representatives

Sixth Congressional District

Jim Clyburn, the third ranking Democrat in House leadership was sick and tired of being behind both Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, so he decided not to run for re-election. Democrats had a crowded primary, but there were only two serious candidates in Columbia Mayor Stephen Benjamin and State Representative Christopher Hart. Benjamin had superior name recognition, and as a result, led the primary the whole way and led after the first round with 39% of the vote, and then won the runoff with 61% to Hart's 39%. No Republican filed for the General Election, meaning Benjamin was elected unopposed.

[NewYorkExpress]

New Hampshire

President

While President Trump had almost won New Hampshire in 2016, things were going to be very different four years later. John Kasich getting 42% in the primary was one sign of just how much trouble Trump was in, then there was the fact that Democrats had nominated almost a favorite daughter in Elizabeth Warren, who lived in next door Massachusetts. Putting those two things together, you had the clear potential for a landslide win for Warren. Indeed, it got so bad for Trump, that his campaign was forced to triage the Granite State shortly after Labor Day, as Warren raced out to a massive lead. She ultimately ended up winning by a 60-35 margin. This was also one of Joe Miller's best states, as he picked up 4.1% of the vote here.

Governor

Chris Sununu had narrowly defeated Molly Kelly in 2018, but faced an even stiffer challenge in 2020. Democrats nominated, without much opposition at all, Congresswoman Ann McLane Kuster, for what was Sununu's strongest challenge yet. Sununu hit Kuster on being part of a "do-nothing" Congress, while Kuster hammered Sununu on his support of President Trump (he had endorsed Trump, despite entreaties from Kasich), as well as his vetoing a bill (which Kuster supported, and which had passed the New Hampshire House and Senate by an overwhelming, bipartisan margin), to ban the sale, production and possession of three of the most popular opioids. Kuster, who said she would have signed the bill, drew support from the opioid weary population of New Hampshire. And then there was Warren's crushing victory atop the ballot, which meant that Sununu was in trouble from the word go. McLane Kuster won easily 56-41, for another Democratic gain.

Senate

Jeanne Shaheen started the cycle with speculation that she would not run for a third term, especially as she raised very little funds in early 2019. However, she quickly put that to rest, announcing that she would in fact run for reelection in Mid-May, and her fundraising immediately perked up.

Awaiting her in November was the Republican nominee, a very familiar face to both Senators and New Hampshire politicians in former Senator Kelly Ayotte. While some questioned Ayotte's decision to run now instead of against Maggie Hassan in 2022, Ayotte explained that if she lost this race she probably would run in 2022 as well, and that she couldn't pass up the opportunity with Shaheen's middling approvals (44-46 according to a CNN/WMUR exit poll). Once again the opioid crisis took center stage, as both Ayotte and Shaheen supported the proposed ban on the three most common Opioids that had been vetoed by Sununu. In addition, Ayotte, refused to support President Trump (though she couldn't bring herself to back Kasich either, she claimed she wrote her own name on her New Hampshire primary ballot). Despite polling showing a close race from the moment Ayotte announced her candidacy on August 6, 2019 until it became clear Trump would pull out of New Hampshire, the race wasn't particularly close, as Shaheen won handily 57-41.7. Ayotte, undeterred, told reporters after the race she was considering challenging either Maggie Hassan, or newly elected Governor Ann McLane Kuster in 2022.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Congressman Chris Pappas had easily defeated State Senator Andy Sanborn in 2018, after Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter's retirement. However, this was a swing seat, as evidenced by the constant battles between Shea-Porter and Frank Guinta (each of whom had won twice). Pappas had no problem securing the Democratic nomination.

Republicans had a contested primary between former State Representative John Poutcek and State Representative Debra DeSimone. DeSimone won a relatively civil nomination 56-44, and advanced to the general.

While some thought the district might have flipped under different circumstances, DeSimone wasn't a particularly strong candidate, plus Warren won the district easily, leading to an easy 55-40 Pappas victory (The Libertarian nominee earned 4.87% of the vote).

Second Congressional District

Ann McLane Kuster's bid for Governor, left a theoretically competitive seat open. Democrats had a primary between State Representative David Woolpert, Former State Representative Kris Roberts, and State Representative Tom Buco. With all three relatively unknown, no one knew who would win the primary. After a spirited competition (Woolpert attacked both Roberts and Buco for opposing the proposed Opioid ban..Buco had voted against it the State House, while Roberts had voted for it), Woolpert won the primary with 42% of the vote, to 31% for Roberts and 22.4% for Buco.

Facing her in November was the Chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, and Former State Senator Jeanie Forrester. Forrester took some heat from fellow Republicans for remaining State Party Chairwoman throughout the election (especially from Kelly Ayotte), and caused a scandal by diverting funds meant for Chris Sununu and Kelly Ayotte to her own campaign (the FEC would ultimately fine her $250,000, and she narrowly avoided an indictment from the U.S Attorney's office). In addition to all this, Warren's overwhelming victory meant she had basically no chance, as Buco won 59-39.


Tennessee

President

Despite Phil Bredesen's victory in the Senate race in 2018, no seriously thought Tenessee would be competitive in November. Both Warren and Harris had Governor Karl Dean on their long list for Vice President (Harris was also considering Senator Bredesen when she suspended her campaign), and had Warren picked him, the Volunteer state might have gotten interesting. However, she didn't, and Trump remained mostly popular here (57-39 according to a Fox News exit poll), so it was no surprise that he won the state by a commanding margin, ultimately winning 60-38.

Senate

Lamar Alexander was expected to face a more serious primary challenge than in 2014. However, he was also getting up there in age, and he chose to retire rather than have to deal with the campaign and likely loss, as polls showed him behind both 2018 nominee Marsha Blackburn and 2016 Gubernatorial candidate Diane Black. However former Governor Bill Haslam quickly entered the race, and the field quickly cleared out for him.

Democrats had a problem. Their two strongest candidates, Phil Bredesen and Karl Dean, were both in their first terms in their elected offices (and Bredesen already was a Senator). They did manage to get a credible candidate, as Congressman Steve Cohen, fed up with primary challenges from African-American groups, announced he would run (he had two challengers when he announced). He easily secured the nomination, however unlike Bredesen no one really gave him much of a chance against the still popular Haslam, and he ultimately lost 58-40.

House of Representatives

Fourth Congressional District

Still scandal-scarred Scott DeJarlais was hit with another scandal in late 2019, this time getting accused of sexual harassment by Former Congresswoman (and 2018 Senate nominee) Marsha Blackburn, and as a result announced he would not run for reelection. Republicans nominated Murfreesbro Mayor Shane McFarland, who got 52% of the vote against nine other minor candidates.

Democrats didn't really have a chance in this district, and DeJarlais dropped out, rather than fight the charges, their already less than one percent chances of winning the seat went up in smoke. Their nominee, 2018 nominee Mariah Phillips, stood no chance at being elected, and ultimately got blown out 68-31.

Ninth Congressional District

African American groups all but celebrated after Steve Cohen announced he would run for the Senate. Finally, they could elect one of their own to a seat drawn exclusively for them. They quickly coalesced around Memphis City Councilman Berlin Boyd, who defeated three other minor opponents with 78% of the vote in the primary. As Republicans did not bother to field a candidate here, Boyd was assured of re-election once he won the primary, though he still had to face an opponent who belonged to the Green Party, which did not have ballot access in Tennessee, thus was running as an Independent. Boyd got 92% in November, for an overwhelming victory.

[NewYorkExpress]

What about SC-01?

Kate Arrington won in both 2018 and 2020.

I'll tell you this much now, Democrats are going to do much better in places in 2018 in places like New  York, California, and in the Rust Belt then they are projected to do IRL.

[NewYorkExpress]

Maine

President

Donald Trump's original plan for 2020 was to play hard for all of Maine's electoral votes. That however, was before the Robert Mueller investigation kicked into high gear (by this point, Jared Kushner, KellyAnne Conway, Hope Hicks and Steve Bannon either had been indicted-Kushner and Conway...though Conway was acquitted and Kushner's trial was still being held as of election day, or had turned witness against others - Bannon and Hicks). So, Trump had to abandon his plans of winning more electoral votes in Maine, though for a time he briefly kept a skeleton crew in the Second Congressional District, which he won in 2016 (Maine split its votes by Congressional District). Warren ended up winning both districts on her way to a 51-43 victory. This was another state where Joe Miller had a strong performance, picking up 5.03% of the vote, one of his best totals nationally.

Senate

Susan Collins was widely expected to face a serious primary and general election challenge if she ran, and many thought she would retire. However Collins opted to run for reelection, and faced a challenge in the Republican Primary from former Congressman Bruce Poliquin, who's entry had scared out other challengers. Poliquin was the strongest challenger Collins had ever faced in a primary, and the strongest challenger she'd faced at all since 2008, when she'd handily defeated then-First District Congressman Tom Allen. The race was brutal, with Poliquin attacking Collins for her pro-choice stances, her support of same-sex marriage, her support of giving Merrick Garland a hearing in the Senate, and her opposition to both Scott Pruitt and Betsy DeVos. It was enough for Poliquin to win the primary 51-49.

Democrats also had a semi-contested race, however only one candidate had any sort of name recognition, The battle was between Doctor and State Committeewoman Cathleen London and Congresswoman Chellie Pingree. In comparison to the Republican race, this race was civil...though Pingree never did agree to a debate. Pingree won convincingly 77-23.

Democrats almost wished Collins had lost to a weaker challenger, as Poliquin ran a very strong campaign, Pingree also ran a strong campaign, and the race would not be decided for several days after election day, largely due to the Instant-Runoff voting (there were two minor Independents running), and the fact the race between Polquin and Pingree was extremely close. Ultimately, the good year for Democrats, led to Pingree defeating Polquin after all the votes were counted and run off 50.96-49.04.

First Congressional District

Chellie Pingree's bid for Senate left this seat open. While some thought there might be a crowded Democratic primary, the field quickly cleared for Chellie's daughter, and former State Representative Hannah Pingree.

Republicans had little hope of winning this seat, but it behooved them to put up a candidate anyways. They nominated Former State Representative Wayne Parry, however Warren easily won this district, and so did Chellie Pingree, leading to an easy victory for Hannah Pingree (who certainly wasn't hurt by the fact her mother was running for the Senate) 59-41.

Second Congressional District

Jared Golden had defeated Bruce Poliquin in 2018, and Republicans proceeded to target him in 2020. Unfortunately for them, the only candidate that bothered to run, was the still unpopular former Governor Paul LePage, who's approval ratings hadn't really improved much since leaving office (a statewide of Maine's last three Governors conducted by the Portland Press Herald showed LePage with approval ratings of 40-55, John Baldacci with approval ratings of 43-43 and Angus King with approval ratings of 51-44). LePage tried all sorts of attacks, but they simply served to drive his own negatives up. He was however, responsible for one of the more memorable (and offensive) ads of the campaign season, in which he burned Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Jared Golden effigies onscreen, and said he'd do the same to "all other liberals". Golden, needless to say won handily, after the counting of ballots, and the runoff was applied 57-43.

Washington D.C

With Trump as unpopular as he was in Washington D.C, it was a forgone conclusion that Warren would at least win 90% percent of the vote, and possibly 95%. However, no one was prepared for Warren to secure the three electoral votes of D.C by an insane 97-1.4 margin. This was was one of Ajamu Baraka's best performances as he picked up 1.2% of the vote.

[NewYorkExpress]

New Jersey

President

Despite a slightly weaker margin between 2012 and 2016, for Democrats, and despite President Trump being from neighboring New York, there was little doubt that Elizabeth Warren would win the state. With neither campaign seriously making an effort here, the only question, was by just how much Warren would win by. She ended winning by a sizable, but somewhat similar margin to 2012, 57-39.

Senate-Special

After Robert Menendez was again indicted on January 9,2020 this time after a witness in his previous corruption trial said he was bribed by Menendez's defense team to give misleading testimony in favor  of Menendez, Democrats across New Jersey and nationally called on the Senator to resign, and Menendez did so on May 7, 2020. It fell to Governor Phil Murphy to both appoint a replacement, and schedule a special election, which he scheduled for election day, with primaries if needed, falling on September 1.

Murphy wanted to appoint someone who would run and hold the seat, as he did not wish to run himself, and he ultimately appointed Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop to the seat, over the objections of several of the Garden State's Congressmen. While there was speculation of a primary challenge from Donald Norcross, Jeff Van Drew and Albio Sires, none materialized.

The Republicans meanwhile, quickly found their candidate as well, in former Senator Jeffery Chiesa. Chisea had only served as a Senator for one hundred twenty nine days, and had previously served as Attorney General under Chris Christie, who was still unpopular, and Fulop was quick to hammer Chisea for that. Despite Republicans seeing the seat as one of their best pickup opportunities, such an event didn't materialize, as Fulop won 54-44.

Senate

Cory Booker had been running for President, but after finishing in the back of the pack in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, and only managing to muster a third in South Carolina, he dropped out and endorsed Harris, and decided to reenter the race for his Senate seat, which had been frozen until Booker realized the inevitable-that he wasn't going to be the nominee for President. Booker was never seriously considered by Warren for Vice President either, leaving a likely reelection ahead.

Facing him was Former State Assemblyman Christopher Brown. Brown was unknown, and certainly not the Republican's best recruit, and as a result Booker won easily 61-37.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Jeff Van Drew's victorious campaign in 2018 over Seth Grossman was aided by the fortunate fact that Grossman was essentially a Neo-Nazi. However, Republicans had a stronger candidate waiting in State Assemblyman Brian Rumpf. This was a race targeted by National Republicans, with millions spent between the two sides (and that wasn't counting PAC ads). Despite Van Drew being an incumbent, this was at best a tossup district (and in fact was one of only two districts Trump carried in New Jersey, the other being the Fourth), and Fulop also lost the district. As such Rumpf defeated Van Drew in a race that didn't finish counting until early on November 8, 50.58-48.67, for a second Republican gain

Third Congressional District

Andy Kim had rather comfortably beaten Tom MacArthur in 2018, and while National Republicans sought to target Kim, but the only candidate they had with any experience running any sort of campaign at all was Surf City Borough Councilman John Hadash. While this was a Republican leaning seat, Hadash had no name recognition outside of Surf City, and Kim was an inoffensive Congressman. As such, after Hadash almost blew the Republican nomination (he won it with 17% of the vote in a twelve candidate field) Kim blew him out of the water 65-33.

Fifth Congressional District

After another easy win by Josh Gottheimer in 2018 over an underfunded foe (Sam McCann), Republicans opted to try again, this time nominating former Bogota Mayor, and by this point perennial candidate Steve Lonegan. Despite Republicans seeking a stronger candidate, Lonegan actually managed to keep the race surprisingly close for most of the cycle, but fell victim to the trap of a nasty negative campaigning, using an ad in the closing weeks that essentially said that Gottheimer, who was Jewish, was a member of "an influential lobby that controlled the world". Lonegan disavowed the ad, but the damage was done, and he went from being within striking distance to getting blown out. Gottheimer ultimately won 67-30.

Seventh Congressional District

Tom Malinowski had won a tough battle against Leonard Lance in 2018, and girded himself for a equally difficult challenge in 2020. Republicans nominated Former State Assemblywoman Alison Littell McHose. Despite early signs that the fight might be difficult, Malinowski was able to pull away late in the campaign by framing McHose as a vote for Steve King as Speaker of the House, winning 56-43.

Ninth Congressional District

Bill Pascrell, citing old age, announced his retirement in late August of 2019. Democrats, surprisingly didn't have much of a primary to replace him, as the field cleared for State Assemblywoman Angelica Jimenez, even though she did not actually live in the district. Jimenez won 96% in the primary and was elected unopposed in November.

Eleventh Congressional District

Mikie Sherrill had narrowly won her first term over Jay Webber in 2018, but now Republicans targeted her for defeat in 2020. Her opponent was State Assemblywoman Holly Schepisi, who was an equally strong candidate as Webber, if not stronger. Sherrill had to deal with the fact that although Warren and Booker won the district, Fulop did not, and that Schepisi was running a strong campaign. For Schepisi's part, she had to overcome the headwinds from the top of the ticket (which Brian Rumpf was able to do), and also raise enough money to be competitive in the New York City media market, which she was unable to do. As a result, Sherrill won 51-47, for an important hold for Democrats.

[NewYorkExpress]

North Carolina

President

Since President Obama's narrow victory in 2008, the Tar Heel State had been a true battle ground at the national level, with narrow wins for both Mitt Romney and Donald Trump in 2012 and 2016. As such both campaigns made numerous stops here. Some local insiders believed Warren had made an error by not putting Roy Cooper on her list of Vice Presidential candidates (Kamala Harris had apparently put Cooper on her long list, when she dropped out...but Cooper had endorsed her in the primary, which Warren had won). That said, she did have Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles on her longlist, though Lyles declined to be considered for the Vice Presidency. Warren also used the North Carolina Republican Party's corruption as a bludgeon against Trump, linking him to their desperate bids to seize power (and doing the same in reverse). The result was a narrow Warren victory, 49.37-48.92, a similar margin to Obama's victory in 2008.

Governor

Roy Cooper was up for reelection, but there was also a Senate race on the ballot, and national Democrats (especially DSCC chair Claire McCaskill), were wooing him into the Senate race. In addition, Cooper was frustrated by the North Carolina Republican Party's increasingly outrageous attempts to hold on to power (they'd attempted to impeach Cooper twice in 2019 after he'd vetoed a bill  to make the Republican Party the only legal party in North Carolina-the attempt passed in the House, but failed in the Senate). As such, despite pleading to stay from local Democrats, he jumped into the Senate race. Democrats nominated, without any real struggle at all, Former U.S Secretary of Transportation, and previously Mayor of Charlotte, Anthony Foxx.

Republicans meanwhile, had an all-star primary between Senator Thom Tillis, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest and Former Governor Pat McCrory. With all three having distinct bases of support, and strong name recognition, most assumed the race would head to a runoff, especially when President Trump declined to endorse a candidate (Vice President Pence on the other hand, endorsed Tillis). Tillis did have one disadvantage. He was campaigning as a candidate who would curb the excesses of the North Carolina Republican Party, and as such, no one in the legislature or party establishment supported him, dividing their support between Forest and McCrory. While most presumed there would be a runoff, Tillis secured just enough support to avoid one, securing 40.75%, to McCrory's 29.25% and Forest's 29.07%

In November, the narrow victory from Warren, plus juiced up turnout from African Americans by virtue of Foxx being the nominee, led to a victory for Foxx 49.82-48.85.

Senate

Thom Tillis's decision to run for Governor left Republicans with a Senate seat that they already were going to have trouble defending, and they preferred not to defend without the incumbent. They also had trouble finding a notable recruit, with their biggest names preferring to either run for Governor, or run for reelection. As a result, their best candidate was State Representative Kelly Hastings, who had won an underwhelming nomination against a field of gadflies with 49% of the vote.

Democrats had no such problems as they successfully recruited the incumbent Governor, Roy Cooper, to run, and even before Tlills announced he would run for Governor, polls showed Cooper ahead. Now, against a virtually unknown state legislator, Cooper was the overwhelming favorite, even if the final margin didn't show it. Ultimately, Cooper gave Democrats their second pickup, 52.5-46.3

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Linda Coleman had surprised people by defeating George Holding in 2018, but she was going to be seventy one on election day 2020, which was old for someone seeking their second term in the House. In addition, Coleman had managed to offend Nancy Pelosi, getting caught on a hot mike calling her a "West Coast Hippie" in conversation with Donna Shahala, leading to Pelosi and the rest of House leadership moving her from the Ways and Means Committee (Which Holding had been serving on before his defeat) to the Ethics committee. Coleman ultimately chose to retire, leaving Democrats with a hole to fill. Their nominee was Cary Mayor Harold Weinbrecht.

Republicans, with Coleman's retirement in a district that favored them, targeted this seat (not that they weren't already). Their nominee, State Senator Chad Barefoot, came in at both an advantage and a disadvantage. He had an advantage in that he wasn't facing an incumbent, had name recognition, and the district was favorable to Republicans. His disadvantage was that both Warren, Foxx and McCrory all carried North Carolina, though none of the trio carried the district. Barefoot was able to pull off the third pickup in the House for Republicans, 49.82-49.

Third Congressional District

Yet again Walter Jones faced a primary challenge, this time from Morehead City Councilwoman Keri McCann. McCann hit Jones for his change of heart on the Iraq War, and for requesting Devin Nunes recuse himself from the Russia investigation in Congress. However, this wasn't quite enough to sway voters in the district, as Jones won the primary 57-41.

In the general election, Jones faced 2016 nominee Ernest Reeves. Jones easily won, 70-29.

Eighth Congressional District

Frank McNeil had pulled off an impressive upset of Richard Hudson in 2018, but this was a very Republican District, so Republicans quickly targeted him. Their nominee, former State Representative Justin Burr, was a potentially strong candidate, despite losing his primary for reelection in 2018. Burr ran a strong campaign, and won comfortably 59-38.

Ninth Congressional District

Dan McCready pulled off a win in 2018, following the controversial Mark Harris's upset of Robert Pittinger in the Republican Primary. This was also a very Republican district, so Republicans tried to target McCready. Their nominee was State Representative Dean Arp. Arp was a strong candidate, and despite a strong effort from McCready, this was the Republicans fifth pickup, 50.02-48.89.

[NewYorkExpress]

I can't wait for Michigan and how Justin Amash fares.

Amash?

He didn't primary Trump... and that's all I'm telling you at this time.

[NewYorkExpress]

Arizona

President

After President Trump's close margin of victory in 2016, there was little doubt Arizona would be a battleground, and some in the Warren campaign admitted that might have been behind the decision to  pick Cortez Masto as her running mate. Both campaigns made many stops here, but with the border wall that Trump had been trying without success to get built, with Congress repeatedly rejecting the wall throughout 2019, including an eleven hour fillibuster of a bill that would have funded the wall by nine hundred fifty four million dollars, and created a shoot on sight order for illegal immigrants attempting to scale or tunnel under it, by Martin Heinrich and Kamala Harris in November 2019. With a CNN/ORC exit poll showing seventy one percent of Arizona voters (and ninety five percent of Democrats) opposed to the wall, Trump seemed destined to lose, and he did, 51-46. Joe Miller and Darrell Castle each did relatively well here, scoring 1.7% (Miller) and 0.89% (Castle of the vote each.

Senate-Special

John McCain's death in late August 2018, left a special election that needed to be held in 2020, and a headache for Arizona Republicans. Despite threats from Doug Ducey, that he would leave the seat vacant until after the 2018 elections, he ultimately chose the runner up in the 2018 Senate primary, Former State Senator Kelli Ward on in early October 2018, and many thought that decision was a major contributor to Ducey's loss to David Garcia that November, as Ward was widely viewed as a crazy person.

Having been appointed to the Senate seat, Ward now faced multiple primary challengers. Running against her in the Republican primary were Former Congressman Matt Salmon (who had once claimed he was done with politics), Former Congressman John Shadegg (who faced an age problem, at seventy years old on election day, he was forced to promise to serve only two terms as a concession to his age), Ducey's former Chief of Staff, and former State Representative Kirk Adams and Former Attorney General and McCain confidant Grant Woods (who had the baggage of having endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016). While most thought a divided field would help Ward, this was clearly not the case, as she came under attack almost right away, and was unable to respond to the avalanche of attacks from her rivals, despite the DSCC propping her up. Woods briefly took the lead, before coming under heavy fire for supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Salmon, who next took the lead was attacked as opportunist, for going back on his statements, made after his retirement following the 2016 elections, that he was done with politics. Then came Shadegg, who was hit with pretty much ageist attacks, mostly by a desperate Ward, who claimed that she didn't want a "second straight Senator to die in office", which left the last candidate, and the least attacked candidate in Adams as the winner with 28.8% of the vote to 23% for Salmon, 16.5% for Woods, 15.6% for Ward, and 15.4% for Shadegg.

Awaiting them in the General Election was the Democratic nominee, Tuscon Mayor Jonathan Rothschild. With Arizona's resign-to-run law, Rothschild would have to resign to secure the nomination, and he did so once the filing deadline passed and no other candidates entered. While under normal circumstances Adams probably would have held the seat for Republicans, Rothschild ran, much like Kristen Simena had in 2018, an excellent campaign that took advantage of the political climate in Arizona, and successfully flipped Arizona's Senate seats from both being represented by Republicans, to both being represented by Democrats, with a 52-46.6 victory.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Tom O'Halleran had narrowly won a second term in this swing seat against Steve Smith, but the former Republican was getting up there in years (he would be seventy four on election day) and was turned down for the position of DNC Vice Chair, replacing Ken Martin, who had stepped down after getting into a fight with Keith Elllison (the position instead went to former Ambassador to the United Kingdom under Obama, and Ambassador to Sweden...again under Obama, Matthew Barzun). So, he chose to retire, leaving Democrats with a recruiting hole, or at least what they thought would be a recruiting hole. Their nominee was State Senator Jamescita Peshlakai.

Republicans, meanwhile nominated Pinal County Supervisor (in fact, he was Vice Chairman) Todd House. House was a weaker candidate than Smith was, but he was able to hammer Peshalaki on her more progressive positions, which he said were to liberal for the district. His biggest problem, was that Warren carried the district, as Rothschild, leading to a 53-45 victory for Peshalaki.

Second Congressional District

Ann Kirkpatrick had pulled a surprise in the primary, by carpetbagging over from Arizona's First Congressional District in 2018, and surprising several opponents in 2018 (her closest foes being Former State Representatives Matt Heinz and Bruce Wheeler), and then comfortably winning the general election in this swing district, thanks to Martha McSally vacating the seat to run for Senate (she defeated Danny Morales in the general that year).  Facing Kirkpatrick in the General Election, was the Republican nominee, Former State Representative Ethan Orr (who defeated a pair of marginal challengers with 67% of the vote). While Orr was a stronger candidate than anyone Republicans had run in 2018, he wasn't able to overcome the fact that Warren carried the district, as did Rothschild, leading to another win for Kirkpatrick 53-45.

Sixth Congressional District

Following David Schewikert's turning back of a challenge from Anita Malik in 2018, National Democrats didn't have high hopes about this staunchly Republican seat. That changed when Democrats recruited State Senator Eric Mayer, for Schweikert's strongest challenge since his primary against Ben Quayle. While the political climate in Arizona favored Democrats, neither Warren nor Rothschild won this district. That said, the climate in Arizona was favorable enough for Democrats for a victory for Meyer 50-46, for Democrats second gain of the night (against five Republican gains).

[NewYorkExpress]

Ducey would not/will not choose Ward.

And that's why Ducey lost, because he chose Ward. He would have won in this 2018 otherwise.

[NewYorkExpress]

Delaware

President

Delaware hadn't elected a Republican for President since 1988, but it had swung significantly towards Trump in 2016. If Trump had been trying to expand the map, and been in a position to do so, Delaware might have been in play. However, he was on defense, and as such could not play offense in new battlegrounds like Warren could. The outcome was never in doubt, as Warren won everything except Sussex County, winning statewide 60-38.

Governor

John Carney was up for a second and final term, and despite some speculation, mostly from the Washington Post, that he and Chris Coons would switch jobs, Carney chose to run for reelection, and avoided any serious primary challenge.

Facing Carney in November was Treasurer Ken Simpler, who was Delaware's only remaining Statewide Republican (Dennis Williams had picked up the open Auditor's seat in 2018). Simpler ran a strong campaign, hitting Carney on his ambition (Carney had openly lobbied to be both Warren and Harris's running mate, but was never seriously considered by either), and for lobbying for a new 10,000 seat stadium for the Delaware Blue Coats of the NBA G League, who had not asked for a new stadium, nor had the city of Wilmington. However, Warren's victory atop the ballot was too strong to overcome, as Carney won 53-45.

Senate

With Chris Coons running for reelection, no one seriously thought the race would be remotely competitive, and few Republicans dared consider stepping forward. Coons ultimately faced an old foe in November, in Christine O'Donnell, who he had defeated in 2010, and who Joe Biden had defeated in 2008. With the best memories of O'Donnell previous campaigns being her defending herself after old comments about "dabbling in witchcraft" were brought up on the Bill Maher show. This campaign was somehow even more hilarious, with Coons using O'Donnell's "witch" themology, and calling her Morgana (after Morgan Le Fay) during a debate, and suggesting she used "black magic" to beat Mike Castle in the 2010 primary (for which he was forced to apologize). O'Donnell for her part, called Coons a flip-flopper (referencing his past as a Republican), a Biden clone, and a bald headed freak. With the insults flying, Coons won 60-39, but the price was high, as his reputation nationally and amongst other Senators was heavily damaged.

House of Representatives

At Large Congressional District

Lisa Blunt Rochester was running for reelection, and no one seriously thought she would face a serious challenge. Republicans did nominate a better than usual candidate in Former State Senator and Chair of the Delaware Republican Party, Charles Copeland, but he was dragged down by the disasters at the Presidential and Senatorial level, leading to a win for Blunt Rochester 55-43.7.

[NewYorkExpress]

Pennsylvania

President

With President Trump having carried Pennsylvania by just 44,292 votes in 2016, both sides knew that the Keystone state would be a battleground going in. Both sides spent millions on ads here, but the big blows to Trump were the non-endorsements of Pat Toomey (he refused to endorse a candidate in the primary, though he admitted to voting for Trump after election day), and an a pro-Trump ad, airing only in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia markets, which called Warren a "loathsome Communist, who would reintroduce the gulags to the world". While the ad didn't affect Trump's poll standing in most states, except Pennsylvania and maybe Warren's home state of Massachusetts, it was one of the most talked about ads heading into election day, and probably gave Warren quite a bit of free positive airtime.

Warren for her part, also made multiple unforced errors in Pennsylvania. During the primaries, at a March debate held at the University of Pennsylvania, Warren could not explain how she would pay for guaranteed college tuition for every student. At a campaign stop in early October, in Altoona, Warren openly called for sanctions against Pakistan, calling them an "enemy of the United States", drawing a rebuke from Prime Minister Imran Khan, and Pakistani Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs Shah Mehmood Qureshi going a step further, promising attacks on American troops still in Afghanistan (as of the 2020 elections there were about eighteen thousand troops across Afghanistan), by the Pakistani army should sanctions be implemented. Even with these blunders, Trump's extreme unpopularity meant he was in trouble. That said, Warren's own blunders here, had led to a messy situation for her, as Trump was still somewhat popular among rural voters. The state came down to the wire, and ultimately, Warren emerged with a narrow 49.967-48.138, and a margin of fifty one thousand six hundred and sixty two votes for her victory.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Scott Wallace defeated Brian Fitzpatrick in 2018, but this was a swing district, and Fitzpatrick was back for a rematch, advancing from the Republican Primary unopposed. Unfortunately for Wallace, he'd gotten into trouble in his district for advocating the execution of CEO's of drug companies that continued to manufacture opioids, which drew a stiff rebuke from Rite Aid CEO John Standley on Lou Dobbs Tonight. This disturbing commentary (Laura Ingraham called him a lunatic, while Rachel Maddow called him a blood thirsty monster on her program), was enough to give Republicans their sixth gain (against two for Democrats) 54-44.

Fourth Congressional District

Madeleine Dean easily picked up this seat for Democrats in 2018, and Democrats felt they had a good chance to hold the seat in 2020. This became a strongly Democratic seat after the redistricting in 2018, but Republicans had an interesting candidate in former NFL Quarterback A.J Feeley (who actually lived in Philadelphia). Feeley drew fire from conservatives for his "fluid" views, and only drew 52% of the vote against two primary challengers. In the general, the continued mistrust over Feeley's views led him to have trouble raising money as he only raised a total of $3,789,567, over the course of the entire race-including the primary, which was nowhere near enough to be competitive in the expensive Philadelphia market. This lack of funds was what sunk Feeley, as Dean ran far ahead of Warren, winning 55-43.

Fifth Congressional District

Mary Gay Scanlon had easily defeated Pearl Kim in 2018 for a key Democratic gain on their way to a majority in the House. However Republicans nominated the former U.S Attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, William McSwain (who had resigned on January 9, 2020 to run-Trump had yet to nominate a replacement), in a heavily Democratic district, and he proved to be a strong candidate. Still, it was not enough, as Scanlon won 54-44.9, running slightly behind Warren in the district.

Sixth Congressional District

Chrissy Houlahan earned Democrats another pickup in 2018 by defeating Greg McCauley, but unlike the neighboring fifth district, this was designed to be a swing district. Republicans nominated State Representative Gary Day, but it was clear he needed Trump to carry the district. When this didn't happen, Day's chances chances turned to night, as he lost 49.98-48.58.

Seventh Congressional District

Susan Wild defeated Marty Nothstein in 2018 to pick up this open seat, but like many districts in Pennsylvania, this was a swing district. Republicans nominated former State Representative Karen Beyer, but she had flaw of losing her reelection primary in 2010. She ran an energetic campaign, but Wild ran a better one, and emerged with a key hold, 50-48.93.

Eighth Congressional District

Matt Cartwright had narrowly survived against John Chirin in 2018, but Republicans were determined to try again in 2020, and they thought they had the perfect nominee for the swing district in State Senator Lisa Baker. Trump managed to comfortably carry the district, which proved to be a devastating blow for Cartwright, as Baker gave Republicans their seventh gain (against two for Democrats) 51-47.

Seventeenth Congressional District

Conor Lamb had pulled out a surprising huge victory over Keith Rothfus in 2018, but 2020 would provide a very different story. Lamb faced former State Representative Jim Christiana, last seen losing the primary in 2018 Senate race to Lou Barletta, and while Lamb ran ahead of Warren, he didn't run far enough ahead of Warren, as Christiana gave Republicans their eighth gain (against still two losses) 50.89-48.97. (Warren by comparison, got 46.99% of the vote in the district).

[NewYorkExpress]

How does Warren do so well in New Hampshire while barely winning Pennsylvania?

Neighboring state advantage.  Plus, I imagine Grafton County turnout is insane.

Neighboring State advantage was the primary reason.

Warren won every county, though she only won Rockingham and Belknap by plurality margins.

[NewYorkExpress]

West Virginia

President

West Virginia was one of only a few states where President Trump was expected to improve on his 2016 performance, where he'd won with 68 and a half% of the vote (to Hillary Clinton's just under 26 and a half percent of the vote). Warren, despite being a populist, was considered even more left wing than Clinton on the environment (which hurt her somewhat in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio as well), and despite coal jobs generally not coming back, Trump was still broadly popular here, sporting an approval rating of 68-29 according to Gravis. Needless to say, Trump crushed Warren here, 71-25, carrying every county by at least fifteen points.

Governor

Jim Justice, despite switching from the Republicans to the Democrats, back to the Republicans, was a popular elected official, and most Democrats were nervous about taking him on, especially since President Trump was going to carry the state by an overwhelming margin. Democrats nominated former Senator Carte Goodwin, who ran a solid, and valiant campaign, but Justice made few mistakes, and was buoyed by Trumps commanding margin atop the ballot. Justice emerged with the win 59-39.

Senate

Shelley Moore Capito was expected to glide to reelection, if she avoided a primary, which she did. It didn't really matter who the Democrats nominated, as both Trump and Justice would win by big margins. The Democrats ultimately put up former Governor Earl Ray Tomblin, who was expected to at least make Moore Capito sweat a little, but like Natalie Tennant in 2014, the lean of the state proved to be a barrier towards making the race competitive, as Moore Capito won 60-38.98.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Alex Mooney had won reelection easily over Talley Sergent in 2018, but he was growing restless, and he chose to run for Treasurer of West Virginia instead (a position he was only only somewhat qualified for, having served on various financial committees in the House of Representatives, but it was enough to win the Republican Primary, and defeat incumbent Treasurer John Purdue in the General Election). While Republicans had a strong candidate in State Auditor John McCuskey, Democrats nominated former Delegate Mark Hunt, who was best known for spending fifty thousand dollars in an attempt to clone his deceased son. Needless to say McCuskey won 67-24, as the Mountain Party's nominee earned 7.5%.

Third Congressional District

Carol Miller had defeated Richard Ojeda in a surprisingly close race in an overwhelmingly Republican seat in 2018. However, Democrats saw the close margin as a chance to try again, and they nominated what they perceived as a stronger candidate in former Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, who had lost reelection in 2016, and gotten blown out by Shelly Moore Capito in 2014. While Tennant put up a good fight, and clearly did better than she did against Moore Capito, the tide against Democrats was simply too strong for her to win, as Miller won 52-46, running far behind Trump, Justice and Moore Capito, and (to some anyway) proving she was a weak incumbent.

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama

President

Donald Trump had won Alabama easily in 2016, just like every Republican nominee since 1976 had, and no one doubted that this would happen again. Making matters worse for Warren, she didn't win the primary here either, finishing second to Kamala Harris (with Cory Booker, who had just left the race, finishing just behind her in third). Neither campaign did much here, as Trump didn't need to, and Warren had much better opportunities to expand the map, leaving Trump with a 60.04-38.93 victory.

Senate

Doug Jones was widely expected to retire, rather than run for a full term, but DSCC chair Claire McCaskill convinced him to run for reelection. Republicans, meanwhile had a contested primary between Congressman Mo Brooks, Congressman Robert Aderholt and Congresswoman Martha Roby. Roby was relatively disliked by the base, and knew she'd have to drive up both Brooks and Aderholt's negatives, and quickly got into an ad war with both of them, while Brooks, who had previous experience running a statewide race (he'd finished third in the 2017 special election), and used that experience to jump out to an early lead. Aderholt, buffeted from both sides, attacked by Roby as too right wing (along with Brooks), and attacked by Brooks for voting in favor of impeaching Mike Pence (which had been introduced in the House by Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez as a blatant attempt to install Nancy Pelosi as President...Ocasio-Cortez even told reporters that she assumed the Senate would refuse to confirm a Trump nominee to replace Pence, then Trump himself would be impeached and removed from office, thus allowing Pelosi to succeed to the Presidency, but Ocasio-Cortez's scheme failed in the House). Most assumed with three relatively strong candidates, the race would proceed to a runoff, however, what the beltway insiders did not count on, was the total collapse of both Aderholt and, to a lesser extent Roby, leading to Brooks winning the primary with 61% of the vote to 22% for Roby and 17% for Aderholt.

The General Election was essentially a tossup for most of the summer, but the reality was that with Trump winning the state by such an overwhelming margin, Jones was almost certainly going to go down to Brooks. And that he did, as Brooks gave Republicans their first Senate gain, 53-45.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

While Martha Roby had defeated Tabitha Isner in 2018, she was vacating this seat to run for the Senate (and avoid another Primary challenge, not that it worked). Republicans nominated former State Representative Barry Moore, who had finished third in the primary for this seat in 2018. Democrats, meanwhile nominated 2014 nominee Erick Wright, but it was never seriously considered in play, as Moore defeated Wright 65-34.

Fourth Congressional District

Robert Aderholt had crushed Lee Auman in 2018, but he was vacating this seat to run for the Senate. Republicans nominated Muscle Shoals City Councilman Chris Hall, while Democrats tapped 2018 nominee Lee Auman. Once again, the overwhelming lean of the district meant an easy win for the Republican, in this case, Hall, who dominated en route to a 61-38.4 victory.

Fifth Congressional District

Mo Brooks had flattened Peter Joffrion in 2018, but he was now on a successful bid for the Senate. Republicans knew they would have no problems keeping his Senate seat, they just needed the right candidate. They couldn't get a top tier candidate, and ultimately settled for Athens City Councliman (in fact,he was the Council President) Joseph Cannon. Democrats meanwhile nominated 2012 nominee Charlie Holley. This also wasn't a close race, as Cannon shot down Holley 62-36.8.

[NewYorkExpress]

Rhode Island

Despite Allan Fung's election as Governor in 2018, no one really thought Rhode Island would be competitive, and that feeling intensified, when Fung endorsed Kasich ahead of the New Hampshire Primary. Warren was able to use her neighboring state advantage to win easily, 62-36.66.

Senate

Jack Reed was widely considered to be heavy favorite for reelection, but Allan Fung's victory in 2018 gave local Republicans hope. Their nominee was State Representative Brian Newberry. Despite an earnest effort from both Newberry and Fung, Reed was able to win a victory to what he said would be his final term by the smallest margin of his career since his original election to the House of Representatives in 1990, this time winning 61-38.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

David Cicilline once again faced a primary challenge, largely based on his prior record as Mayor of Providence, as the city had almost come close to bankruptcy during and shortly after his tenure. His challenger was State Senator Gayle Goldin, who hammered Cicilline on every one of these issues. Despite efforts from LBGTQ groups to protect Cicilline, Goldin, who ran a campaign on similar themes to the incumbent defeated him in the primary 50-49.89.  Republicans had no luck finding a nominee, and ultimately nominated 2014 nominee Commick Lynch. Lynch ran a better campaign than in 2014, but he was expecting to face Cicilline, and as a result what was originally expected to be somewhat close, ended up being a 59-38.98 victory for Goldin.

Second Congressional District

James Langevin was speculated as a possible candidate for Governor in 2022, but first he had to win reelection. This was a Democratic leaning district, but Republicans could win it with the right candidate, and in the right year. Their nominee, State Representative Antonio Giarusso, was that candidate, but 2020 was not that year. Langevin defeated Giarusso 56-41.

[NewYorkExpress]

Massachusetts

President

As this was Warren's home state, and a normally Democratic state in Presidential Elections, Trump had little hope of winning the state. Making matters worse Governor Charlie Baker first endorsed Kasich, then did not endorse anyone in November, becoming one of the few Republican statewide officeholders to decline to endorse Trump in the general election. Warren was an overwhelming favorite, and with her already representing the state (and doing it well, her approval ratings in Massachusetts were 66-25 in a Boston Globe poll conducted in late October), she rolled to a dominating 71-27.2 victory. This was another of Ajamu Baraka's best states, as he earned 1.178% of the vote.

Senate

Ed Markey was up for a second term, but he was not particularly willing to run for reelection, and behind the scenes lobbying Warren for a cabinet appointment (he wanted Secretary of Energy or EPA Administrator), so he announced in the autumn of 2019 that he would not run again. As a result this was an open seat.

For Republicans, the first choice was Governor Charlie Baker, but he declined to run, feeling he would not win a Senate race in Massachusetts. Their second choice, Mitt Romney was already a Senator in Utah. Ultimately, the brave Republican who took a chance was Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito.

Democrats meanwhile,had a contested primary between former Governor Deval Patrick, Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley, Congressman Stephen Lynch and former Congressman Marty Meehan. While many thought Patrick would win, Pressley used many of the same tactics she'd used to win her House in 2018 to win this primary as well, earning 31% of the vote, to 26% for Patrick, 24% for Lynch and 17.9% for Meehan.

Polito certainly could have made this interesting in any other year, but this was a year Warren was carrying Massachusetts at the top of the ticket by an insane margin.  As such, Pressley defeated Polito 66-33.5.

House of Representatives

Seventh Congressional District

Ayanna Pressley had pulled off a shock victory in 2018, and now she'd run for and done the same to get elected to the Senate. While most expected a crowded primary to replace Pressley, the field quickly cleared for Boston City Councilwoman Andrea Campbell. Republicans did not nominate a candidate here.

Eighth Congressional District

Stephen Lynch had chosen to mount an unsuccessful bid for a Senate seat, and left this seat open. Democrats had a contested primary, but only one candidate had experience in elected office, and that was former State Senator Linda Dorcena Ferry, who beat nine others with 51% of the vote. Republicans nominated 2016 and 2018 nominee William Burke, but he again lost 68-31.

[NewYorkExpress]

Maryland

President

Elizabeth Warren's status as the favorite in Maryland was never really in doubt, despite her narrow loss in the primary to Kamala Harris. Trump, meanwhile had crushed Kasich here, but his approvals were poor, and making matters worse, Larry Hogan, the Governor of Maryland, remained neutral during the primary, and later admitted to voting for Kasich and writing his own name in on the general election ballot in early December, in an interview with the Baltimore Sun. Warren ultimately won 59-39.9.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Democrats had foolishly targeted Andy Harris in 2018, but Harris had crushed Jesse Colvin that year. However, despite national Democrats having no interest in the seat this year, local Democrats found a strong candidate in State Senator James Mathias Jr, who had narrowly survived reelection in 2018 himself. While it was a Democratic year nationally, Harris was just in just too Republican a district to lose, as he defeated Mathias 49.92-48.97.

Second Congressional District

Dutch Ruppersberger had usually won reelection, but he decided not to run for reelection in 2020, ostensibly to spend more time with his family. Democrats quickly found their nominee in former Howard County Executive Kenneth Ullman (who admittedly, did not live inside the district), while Republicans nominated former State Representative Victoria Schade, who had not run for office since 1998. Schade's rust proved to be a problem, as Ullman emerged with a 60-38 victory.

Fifth Congressional District

Steny Hoyer was well aware that the Democratic House leadership was unpopular with progressives, and as such he announced he would retire in the Autumn of 2019. Democrats nominated former Attorney General Doug Gansler, while Republicans tapped former State Delegate (and 2012 nominee) Tony O'Donnell. Gansler easily defeated O'Donnell 61-38.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ohio

Ohio continued it's tradition of being a battleground state in 2018, as following President Trump's easy win in 2016, Sherrod Brown crushed Jim Renacci in the Senate race, and Richard Cordray narrowly defeated Mike DeWine in the Gubernatorial race. As such both campaigns treated Ohio as a true battleground, and a decisive bellwether, which it was, as the Buckeye State had voted for the winner of every Presidential Election since 1964, and both candidates were determined for that streak to continue for them. Between Trump, Pence, Warren and Cortez Masto, there was a total of two hundred seventeen visits to the Buckeye State, not including the first Presidential Debate, which was held at Kent State University. Warren did well in the debate, while Trump did well except for one notable gaffe, when he responded to a question in the lightning round about who his most trusted adviser was by saying he didn't "take advice from anyone", and then going on to call both Attorney General Jeff Sessions and U.N Ambassador Nikki Haley "useful idiots".

Warren ended up winning Ohio 49.99-49.08, but whether the Buckeye State would be a Bellwether State would be left undecided for quite some time.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Aftab Pureval had stunned Steve Chabot in 2018, and while speculation focused on a Chabot rematch, he declined to run, instead opting to run for Mayor of Cincinnati in 2021 to replace the term-limited John Cranley. Republicans instead nominated Springdale City Councilman Jeffrey Anderson. Anderson wasn't a particularly great candidate, and never really showed the enthusiasm for running the race. As such, Pureval held the seat 50-49.

Fourth Congressional District

Following a surprising a close win, and an embarrassing loss in the race for Minority Leader in the House to Steve Scalise and Kevin McCarthy, and a sexual misconduct scandal from his days as an assistant wrestling coach at Ohio State still weighing him down, Jim Jordan chose not to run for reelection. Republicans quickly found a quality candidate in State Representative Mark Romanchuk, while Democrats nominated 2018 candidate Cody James Slatzer-Rose. Romanchuk won easily 68-31.

Tenth Congressional District

Mike Turner had comfortably won reelection in 2018, but in 2020, he faced a challenge from Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley that was much tougher. Whaley ran a perfect campaign, and Turner showed rust, not running any ads until there were two weeks left in the campaign, leading to a 54-45.3 victory for Whaley and a third gain for Democrats (against eight for Republicans).

[NewYorkExpress]

Missouri

President

While President Trump had easily won Missouri in 2016, Claire McCaskill's surprisingly large upset victory two years later, had left Democrats with a slim hope of carrying the state, especially since Warren had designs on expanding the map. Still, the Show Me State, hadn't been close since 2008, and hadn't been particularly close in 2004 either. While Trump and Pence didn't campaign much here, Warren and Cortez Masto put together a combined twenty-seven campaign stops after the conventions, not counting the Vice Presidential Debate at Missouri State University, which largely was a draw, as Pence and Cortez Masto aimed their shots at the top of the other ticket. That said, both sides were widely criticized for the number of insults, with Pence calling Warren a "communist" and a "godless liberal" and Cortez Masto calling Trump a "traitor", and "a Russian stooge".

While the final results were significantly closer than in 2016, Trump was still able to emerge with a 52-45 victory.

Governor

Mike Parson was eligible to run for a full term, and he chose to so. His strongest challengers, Claire McCaskill and Nicole Galloway chose not to run or ran for Auditor respectively. Democrats instead nominated Former State Senator Jacob Hummel, and while Hummel ran an energetic campaign, he just didn't have the name recognition to win, and as a result Parson won 56-43.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Cort VanOstran's upset win over Ann Wagner in 2018, defined the cycle to many observers, and Republicans were determined to win a seat that leaned heavily towards them back. Republicans nominated State Senator Andrew Koenig. Despite VanOstran's attacks on Koenig's positions as extreme, and the fact Trump narrowly lost the district, the voters were willing to split their ticket downballot, as Koenig gave Republicans their ninth pickup (against three for Democrats) 50.77-47.33.

[NewYorkExpress]

Just a minor thing, but the Auditor election is in 2018 in Missouri

Thanks. The implication can be made that Galloway chose to run for reelection in 2022 (If I continue to 2022, I'm inclined to give Kander another shot at the Senate).

[NewYorkExpress]

Mississippi

President

Donald Trump was widely expected to again win the Magnolia State comfortably, and some experts were projecting his victory margin to be at least twenty points. Despite some suggestion that Elizabeth Warren make some effort here, she had better opportunities elsewhere in the Southeast and Southern Plains (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas), and as result she did not make any significant effort here, and Trump ended up winning 57-41.7.

Senate

Cindy Hyde-Smith had narrowly defeated Mike Espy in a much watched runoff in 2018 to finish Thad Cochran's term. Now she was running for a full term. Democrats didn't put a ton of effort into the seat, unlike in 2018, and they ultimately nominated State Representative Deborah Butler Dixon. With no help from the DSCC, or from other outside groups, and minimal funding on her own merit, Butler Dixon lost by a wide margin, as Hyde-Smith won handily 58-40.8.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Bennie Thompson was widely expected to get the committee chairmanship on the House Homeland Security Committee. However, Thompson had decided not to run for reelection, and announced his retirement shortly before the filing deadline. Thompson would later resign on October 14, 2020 to take the position as President of Alcorn State University. Governor Hood opted to leave the seat vacant until the winner was sworn in.

As for who that winner would be, Democrats saw a prominent candidate enter in Jackson Mayor Chokwe Lumumba, an open socialist. He glided through the primary with 85% of the vote, and his only opponent in the general was 2016 Reform Party nominee Johnny McLeod, once again running on the Reform line. Lumumba won 84-16.