November 2020 and beyond, election madness

[NewYorkExpress]

Connecticut

President

Despite the victory by Bob Stefanowski in the Governor's race in 2018, most analysts believed that Connecticut was well out of reach for President Trump (with the notable exceptions of Karl Rove, Ben Shapiro and Chris Christie on ABC News two weeks before the election), and as such no serious campaigning occurred here. In addition to that, this was a state that bordered Warren's home state of Massachusetts, and as a result Warren won easily 61-37.7%.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

For the second consecutive cycle, Republicans targeted Joe Courtney for defeat. While Courtney had demolished Dan Postemski in 2018, some local politicos, as well as RCCC head Barry Loudermilk thought their nominee, Enfield Town Councilman Peter Falk was a stronger candidate. Falk might well have been a solid candidate in a Republican wave, but this was a more neutral year, and despite attempts to tie Courtney to Dan Malloy, who was still unpopular (a Quinnipiac poll from mid-September 2020 showed Malloy's favorability rating at 38-55), a tactic that had not worked in 2018, and would not work here either, as Courtney won 58-41.

Third Congressional District

Rosa DeLauro was considered by some women's groups to be a dark-horse contender for Speaker of the House should Democrats win the House and a revolt against Nancy Pelosi were to form. However, DeLauro put paid to that speculation in two ways, both by announcing she would not run for reelection, and pointing out that there currently were no rules against naming a non-member of the House as Speaker (She suggested Joe Biden or Michelle Obama, neither of whom would've been particularly interested...especially Obama).

Democrats had only two candidates running in the primary (though there were four running before the filing deadline, when the lowest polling candidates dropped out), in former New Haven Mayor John DeStefano Jr, and Middletown Mayor Dan Drew. Both candidates had statewide race experience, with DeStefano Jr. being the nominee for Governor in 2006, while Drew had been a candidate for Governor in 2018, dropping out before the primary. Drew's experience was more recent than DeStefano Jr. and he also had the benefit of endorsements from President Obama and both Chris Murphy and Richard Blumenthal as well, leading to 49-46 victory.

Republicans meanwhile, were not expected to run a serious candidate, but they actually put up a credible nominee in Stratford City Councilman Ken Poisson. The reality was that Drew was a strong nominee for Democrats, and Poisson, while he might have won in a more balanced district, this was not a more balanced district. Drew won easily 65-34.

Fifth Congressional District

Despite the victory by Jahana Hayes in 2018 to hold this open seat for Democrats, Republicans were bullish about their chances of picking up this seat. However, they had a contested primary between New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart and Former Congressman Gary Franks, who had represented a previous version of this district between winning his first election in 1992 and his defeat in 1996, and had been the Republican nominee for the Senate in 1998. While Stewart won the party endorsement, and also earned the endorsement of John Kasich and Kevin McCarthy, Franks was the more conservative candidate, having compiled a conservative record in the House, and earned endorsements from President Trump, Vice President Pence, Sarah Palin and Tim Scott. His disadvantage was that he hadn't served in office since losing in 1996, and had gotten blown out in his 1998 Senate race against Chris Dodd. Even so, the relative conservative energy led to a victory for Franks 50-48.79.

This was a district that had the potential to be close, but Franks was hammered for living under fictional names in Maryland and Florida for ten years, and that proved to be decisive. Hayes won 53-45.

[NewYorkExpress]

Arkansas

President

No one thought Elizabeth Warren, or any other Democrat would even come within twenty points in Arkansas, and they were probably right. Warren for her part, had almost lost the Arkansas primaries, only winning by a 50.04-49.91 margin points over Kamala Harris after Harris called Arkansas Democrats "cowards" on a hot mike at a fundraiser in Little Rock (The only other votes went to minor candidates, and they numbered in the few hundred, though they were more than the margin of victory), and ultimately the two had ended up tied in the delegate count.  Warren didn't bother to expend any resources here, preferring to spend them in states where she had a better chance of winning (North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, South Carolina to some extent), and on helping Doug Jones in his doomed Senate bid in Alabama (Warren's lone stop in Alabama at any point during the race was in support of Jones, not her own campaign, as she had ceded it to Harris/Booker during the primaries). Trump's team felt he didn't need to campaign here, and he was right, as he won by an overwhelming margin 62-36.

Senate

Tom Cotton was up for a second term, and with his eyes firmly on a Presidential bid in 2024, as he'd admitted to TIME Magazine that he was considering a 2024 run in September of 2020, and he'd made over ninety appearances combined, campaigning for Chris Sununu, Kelly Ayotte and Joni Ernst (apparently the House nominees in Iowa and New Hampshire weren't his attention), plus another thirty appearances campaigning for Alan Wilson (again, South Carolina's House nominees, including several incumbents apparently weren't worth his time and energy, plus for some reason he didn't bother to make any stops in Nevada at all) throughout 2019 and 2020, with the expectation of doing the same in 2021 and 2022. Cotton could do all of this campaigning for others, and looking ahead to 2024, because he didn't have a strong opponent in 2020, as Democrats nominated former State Senator David Johnson, who not only was running in a state that Trump was winning by twenty six points, but also had been "persuaded" into the race by Dick Durbin and Claire McCaskill and didn't really want to be a U.S Senator, and such didn't put much effort into his campaign, only raising $180,500, and spending $98,709 throughout the entire race. Cotton won 80-19.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

French Hill had narrowly survived his race with Clarke Tucker in 2018, but he had clearly been spooked by the encounter, and frustrated with not getting a subcommittee assignment he wanted (Republican leadership had refused to put him on Financial Services Committee's Monetary Policy and Trade subcommittee), announced his retirement (he would later become a visiting professor at his alma matter of Vanderbilt University). Republicans had no shortage of candidates, but former State Representative Ann Clemmer, who had run against Hill in 2014, was able to secure the nomination. Clemmer did have flaws dating back to that 2014 race, as her campaign treasurer in that race had been caught embezzling money from her, but nothing like that occurred this time.

Democrats tried to get Tucker, Mark Stodola or even Chelsea Clinton to run, though all three denied interest (Chelsea went as far as to point out that she probably wouldn't be able to win a Democratic Primary, which technically was untrue, as she was far more popular than either of her parents), and were forced to settle for State Representative Fred Allen, who while a decent recruit, was not especially wanted by national Democrats. After polls showed a close race shortly after the primaries, Clemmer, began an impressive dog-whistling campaign, using Allen's status as an African American against him in some very dangerous ways ,and drawing sharp condemnation from none other than Bill Clinton, who called it "George Wallace-esque", but it was effective in a Southern district that was over seventy five percent White.

Clemmer won in November 59-39.6.

[NewYorkExpress]

Virginia

President

Virginia had been a battleground for each of the past three elections, and even the most optimistic of Warren supporters thought it would start that way again, especially as Warren did not have a Virginia native on the ticket, and was really only favored because of just how unpopular Trump was in the state, as Warren herself was not really popular here. Both campaigns made plenty of trips, here with Warren and Cortez Masto making a combined fifty-nine stops, while Trump and Pence stopped in Virginia seventeen times. Unfortunately for Trump, his polling took a nosedive after the Republican Convention, and he was forced to pull out of the state by the first week of October, allowing Warren to earn a win 55-44 win, the largest win for a Democrat in this state since Franklin Delano Roosevelt won his fourth and final term as President all the way back in 1944.

Senate

Mark Warner was widely expected to face a primary challenge from his left in 2020, though some speculated that he might run for President instead. He did not run for President, endorsing Harris after she finished just ninety-seven votes ahead of Warren in the primary, and tied in pledged delegates, and ultimately announced his retirement in the Autumn of 2019...although he admitted he was interested in running for Governor in 2021, since he was eligible to run for that position.

Democrats ended up with a crowded primary of Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, Congressman Don Beyer and State Delegate Alfonso Lopez. Fairfax held the lead throughout the primary, and weathered attacks from both Lopez and Beyer on his youth well. Lopez was targeted for his past association with an ICE facility, while Beyer largely was able to avoid attacks, but never was really able to make an impression in the primary, and it showed when Fairfax won with 50.36% to 28.64% for Beyer and and 20% for Lopez.

Awaiting them in November was former Congresswoman Barbara Comstock. Comstock had been recruited to run against Tim Kaine in 2018, but had chosen to run for reelection and had gotten blown out in that race, leaving some Republicans wondering why she would run now. However her answer was that she thought it was better to go down fighting than lose badly to a popular incumbent in Kaine, and she thought now she had a chance at Warner, who was unpopular with his party's base (compared to Kaine), and now that it was an open seat, possibly a better chance to win. She was wrong, as Fairfax ran ahead of Warren on his way to a 59-39.4 victory.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Elaine Luria had defeated Scott Taylor in 2018, but Republicans were determined to win this seat back. Their nominee was State Delegate Jason Miyares. Miyares was a strong candidate, who didn't have the problems Taylor had in the previous election of propping a candidate with phony signatures on the ballot, and with the district being relatively Republican Friendly, Miyares ran just enough ahead of Trump here to win 45-44, with a write-in campaign for Taylor taking home 10%. This was the Republicans fourteenth gain (against four for Democrats).

Fifth Congressional District

Leslie Cockburn had upset Denver Riggleman in 2018, but Cockburn was a decided underdog in 2020. Still she decided to soldier on and fight. Her opponent was State Delegate Michael Webert, making his second run for this seat. This time Webert not only won the primary, but the General Election as well, emerging with a 55-44.2 victory for the Republicans fifteenth gain (against four for the Democrats).

Seventh Congressional District

Abigail Spanberger had stunned David Brat in 2018, however in 2020 she faced a very different type of foe, as Former Congressman Eric Cantor opted to try for his old seat. Cantor had a slight problem reestablishing residency, but he was able to do so, and he got off the ground running. Spanberger was able to keep the race close for almost the entire cycle, but Trump's narrow victory in the district balanced out his non-endorsement of Cantor (Pence, along with almost everyone else in the cabinet, like Pompeo and Perry for example did endorse him, however), and Cantor ultimately earned his return to Congress 50-48.99 for the Republicans sixteenth gain (against four for the Democrats). Whether or not he would earn his way back into Republican leadership remained to be seen, however.

Eighth Congressional District

Don Beyer's bid for the Senate left this seat open, and Democrats nominated State Delegate Patrick Hope. Hope had previously run for this seat in 2014, losing in the Democratic primary to Beyer, but this time the field largely cleared for him. In fact it was so clear that Republicans didn't even field a candidate here, as hope beat a random Libertarian 83-17.

Tenth Congressional District

Jennifer Wexton had crushed Barbara Comstock in 2018, and while some speculated a rematch was in the cards, Comstock chose to run for the Senate instead. Republicans still wanted to give Wexton a challenge...unfortunately their best candidate was Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart, who as any alert voter would know was one of the most controversial candidates to run for office in Virginia in a long time (possibly since the Byrd family, if not before that). Wexton obliterated Stewart over the airwaves, as the RCCC quickly disavowed him, and she flattened him 74-24, running four points ahead of Warren in the district.

[Cold War Liberal]

Senator Justin Fairfax = N U T

[NewYorkExpress]

Senator Justin Fairfax = N U T

I'm glad you are enjoying yourself.

[KaiserDave]

Sad to see Spanberger, Luria, and Cockburn lose, but that Wexton win is awesome.

[Continential]

Sad to see Brat, Luria, and Cockburn lose, but that Wexton win is awesome.

Brat lost in 2018

[KaiserDave]

Sad to see Brat, Luria, and Cockburn lose, but that Wexton win is awesome.

Brat lost in 2018

Edited

[libertpaulian]

Great TL, but I don't realistically see the Dems losing all these seats.

[NewYorkExpress]

Great TL, but I don't realistically see the Dems losing all these seats.

In this TL, the Democrats really overextended themselves in the House in 2018. They aren't in serious danger of losing the House yet, and they are going to gain seats in the Senate, plus Warren is on the right track towards winning the White House.

You could argue the Democrats performance in the House is an indictment of Pelosi, while their improvement in the Senate is a mark in favor of Schumer.

[Cold War Liberal]

All Warren and Cortez Masto need to get over the 270 line are IL (safe D obviously), CA (see IL), and a few more electoral votes they'll probably get from FL (why wouldn't FL go D with Governor Gillum and a Warren win in GA?), OR, WA, NM, CO, NV, MN, MI, WI, or maybe even IA or TX. Neat.

[NewYorkExpress]

All Warren and Cortez Masto need to get over the 270 line are IL (safe D obviously), CA (see IL), and a few more electoral votes they'll probably get from FL (why wouldn't FL go D with Governor Gillum and a Warren win in GA?), OR, WA, NM, CO, NV, MN, MI, WI, or maybe even IA or TX. Neat.

Remember, as Gillium was picking up the Governor's mansion, Rick Scott was being elected Senator in this timeline, so Florida remains a tossup here.

Also, Warren is more likely to win both Iowa and Texas or win neither state, than win one or the other. If she is to win only one though, watch Texas closely, as Cortez Masto will be a huge benefit for Warren, while Warren narrowly lost the Iowa Caucuses here.

Finally, I didn't mention it earlier, but don't be too shocked if Trump finishes third in Alaska, as Joe Miller, being an Alaska native is the Libertarian nominee... maybe the order ends up being Warren-Miller-Trump?

[NewYorkExpress]

Louisiana

President

Despite campaign stops in the bayous of Louisiana throughout 2019, on behalf of John Bel Edwards's reelection campaign for Governor, Warren never really made much effort here in either the primaries, conceding the state to Booker, then Harris, and by and large conceded the state to Trump as well, having better opportunities in Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida and North Carolina. She was also badly wounded by Edward's decision not to endorse her for the general election, explaining that she was too liberal for the Louisiana electorate, though he declined to endorse Trump as well (he had endorsed Lincoln Chafee instead, who was making second bid for President, and had made it to the Iowa Caucuses this time, largely because he'd announced in September of 2019. He'd finished last in the Caucuses, with no one supporting him at any polling site, and dropped out immediately afterwords). Trump as a result, easily won 58-39.

Senate

Bill Cassidy was running for a second term, and most analysts didn't think Democrats would be able to put up a serious challenge. That changed when former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu announced he would enter the race in the spring of 2019, and quickly made a race of it. Landrieu's presence scared away any other serious Democrats, and when no other notable Republicans or Independents jumped in, it became essentially a two person race. Cassidy held the advantage much of the way, buoyed by Trump's easy win here, but this was a race Republicans really didn't want to spend money in, and the RSCC, led by Mike Lee was complaining that Cassidy wasn't putting in the work needed to put Landrieu away without a runoff. However, the point turned out to be just barely moot, as Cassidy survived the onslaught in the jungle primary, avoiding a runoff by defeating Landrieu in the first round 50.56-49.01.

House of Representatives

Fifth Congressional District

Ralph Abraham was planning to run for reelection in 2020, when an interesting job offer from Jon Bel Edwards came in in February. Edwards needed a new Secretary for the Louisiana Department of Health, and he wanted Abraham, a physician and former veterinarian to take the job. Abraham agreed, but he would not leave Congress until after the elections, a condition agreed to by Edwards. Republicans were forced to scramble for a new candidate in State Representative Steve Pylant, the only Republican running. He was facing one Democrat, Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo, twice previously a candidate for this district. Unfortunately for Mayo, the third time was not the charm, as Pylant won 60-38, to avoid a runoff.

[NewYorkExpress]

Minnesota

President

While Hillary Clinton had won the North Star State by the closest margin for a Democrat since Walter Mondale's three thousand seven hundred sixty one vote victory over President Reagan in 1984, pundits were divided over how close Minnesota would be in 2020, with Charlie Cook rating it as a tossup race, while the "analysts" at Daily Kos Elections and MSNBC's Chuck Todd both had the race at Safe Democratic, which no one else had, with most pollsters preferring to slot Minnesota in either the Lean Democratic or the Likely Democratic category. However, Cook turned out to be wrong, as Trump was forced to pull out of Minnesota around the same time as he was withdrawing from New Hampshire to play defense elsewhere, and by late October, Warren too stopped airing ads, as she romped to a 59.7-39.9 victory.

Senate

Tina Smith had easily won the special election in 2018, and now sought a full term. However, she had made enemies of progressives, and MSNBC in general, after she called for the sacking of Chris Matthews when, in December of 2019, Matthews called for someone to "lynch Jeff Sessions" after Sessions announced that the Justice Department would side with a Texas corporation's (who shall remain nameless-Matthews also called for the murder of the CEO) lawsuit to overturn the Americans With Disabilities Act of 1990. Smith, however, wasn't the only Democrat who had condemned Matthews's remarks. The entire Congressional Black Caucus had called for Matthews's ouster, with John Lewis, who was retiring anyways calling for Matthews's arrest for inciting violence. MSNBC, for their part, stood by Matthews for nine days, before bowing to pressure and firing him on Christmas Eve of 2019. However, Defending Matthews was popular among more militant progressives of all races, and Smith drew a primary challenge from Minneapolis City Councilman Jeremiah Ellison, who was the son of Keith Ellison, who had narrowly been elected Attorney General in 2018, and was considered a possible appointee for the Senate should Amy Klobuchar be named to the cabinet or Supreme Court (Some thought she wanted to be Attorney General, others thought she wanted Ruth Bader Ginsberg or Stephen Breyer's seat on the Supreme Court). In the primary, Smith also faced the problem of having voted being one of only three Democrats to vote for Trump's new controversial nominee as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Halliburton Chairman of the Board David Lesar in March of 2019 (the other three Democrats were Heitkamp, Bredesen and Manchin). Despite all this, there were just enough voters backing Smith for her to scrape out a narrow 50.7-49.25 victory.

Awaiting her in the General Election was former Congressman Erik Paulsen. Paulsen was a tougher opponent than Karin Housley, but she had the advantage of an easy Warren win at her back. Smith's brutal primary challenge had prepared her well, but her biggest fear was that progressives, angry at her (justified) denouncement of Chris Matthews, would sit out the race, handing Paulsen a victory. She didn't really need to worry too deeply, as she won 49-44, with the Independence Party nominee picking up 6.35% of the vote.

House of Representatives

Dan Feehan had pulled what appeared to be an upset of Jim Hagedorn in 2018, but the reality was that Feehan was a stronger candidate. 2020 was going to be different, as former State Senator Carla Nelson, who ran for this seat in 2018, and lost to Hagedorn in the Republican Primary, secured the nomination. This was a Republican leaning district, and it showed with Nelson, a clearly stronger candidate than Hagedorn narrowly emerging with the Republicans seventeenth gain (against four for the Democrats) 49.7-49.3.

Second Congressional District

Angie Craig had crushed Jason Lewis in 2018, largely because of a Democratic wave, and Lewis's provocative past on talk radio. Fortunately for her, Republicans shot themselves in the foot by nominating the very picture of "controversial Minnesota Republican" in the dictionary, in former Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. Bachmann was one of the most controversial Congresspeople in Minnesota history (only Jason Lewis and Keith Ellison really came close in recent memory), and Craig quickly pulled away thanks to multiple ads showcasing Bachmann's "greatest hits", on her way to a 58-40.97 victory.

Third Congressional District

Dean Phillips had defeated Erik Paulsen in 2018, and despite the NRCC wanting Paulsen to run for a rematch, the NRSC's desire to have him in the Senate race won out (they feared Tim Pawlenty would again lose a primary). Instead Phillips got to face former State Representative Doug Wardlow, who had lost the Attorney General election in 2018. Wardlow never matched fundraising goals, and was quickly triaged by the NRCC, but still overperformed compared to expectations on Election Night, as Phillips won 50-44, with the Independence Party nominee earning 5.7% of the vote.

Fifth Congressional District

Ilhan Omar, after her victory was considered a rising star in Minnesota politics, and a possible candidate, either for Mayor of Minneapolis or Statewide office in the future. Unfortunately, her star fell rapidly, after she was forced to announce that she would not run for reelection after calling for President Trump to authorize the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after Netanyahu and Diaspora Affairs Minister Naftali Bennett/Defense Minister Avidgor Lieberman authorized the expulsion of five thousand persons of Somali citizenship or descent from Israel (Interestingly, she didn't call for the assassination of Bennett or Lieberman). Israel wanted more, calling on the House to expel Omar, and for Minnesota prosecutors to indict her. They didn't get either, but Netanyahu was talked off the ledge of breaking off ties with the United States by Lieberman.

Democrats ended up with a crowded primary in the race to replace Omar, between former State Representative Margaret Anderson Kelliher, former State Senator Patricia Torres Ray, former Minneapolis Mayor Betsy Hodges and Hennepin County Commissioner Mike Opat. The race started out as a true four way tossup, but Hodges and Opat both had problems. Hodges had left office as Mayor unpopular, while Opat was constantly attacked for his support of both Target Field and U.S Bank Stadium (the homes of the Minnesota Twins and the Minnesota Vikings respectively), though his opponents were being somewhat disingenuous with their attacks, as he didn't have to vote on U.S Bank Stadium. Still, it cost them in the polls, and the beneficiary was Torres Ray, who won the primary with 41% of the vote to Anderson Kelliher's 26%, Opat's 17% and Hodges's 16%.

Torres Ray proceeded to flatten Christopher Chamberlin, who had run for this seat in 2018 in the General Election, 80-19.

Seventh Congressional District

Collin Petersen had won reelection comfortably in 2018, despite starting out as an underdog, but he was getting older, and he would be an underdog again in 2020, so he chose not to run for reelection. Democrats were forced to scramble for a candidate, as Petersen chose to announce his retirement two weeks before the filing deadline. Democrats ended up nominating State Representative Ben Lien. Republicans, who had a huge advantage in this district, nominate the inventor of the My Pillow, and the CEO of My Pillow Inc. Michael Lindell. Lien started out behind, and fell further behind after a House Majority PAC ad which hit Lindell for his past Cocaine, Crack Cocaine and Alcohol addictions, which Lien took a full week to disavow. Ultimately Lindell won 52-41 for the Republicans eighteenth gain (to four for the Democrats), with the Independence Party nominee earning 6.25% of the vote.

Eighth Congressional District

Joe Radinovich had pulled off a relative upset in 2018, defeating Pete Stauber. In 2020, he faced a challenge from Hill City City Councilman David Lange. While the climate in House races was slightly more favorable to Republicans, Warren ran well here, and Lange was a weaker candidate then Stauber was. Radinovich won 53-44.8.

[Slander and/or Libel]

As of right now:

Warren/Cortez Masto: 195 Electoral Votes
Trump/Pence: 86 Electoral Votes
Not yet called: 257

Warren only needs 75 to clinch, and she's got that in just Illinois + California, not to mention Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, and some subset of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

[NewYorkExpress]

Iowa

President

Iowa had swung somewhat to the right in 2016 and 2018, with President Trump winning the state and Kim Reynolds winning a full term as Governor by a narrow margin in an upset. However, Democrats had done better downballot in 2018. Warren had the problem of losing the Iowa caucuses by a narrow margin (three votes in three different polling sites) to Kamala Harris, kicking a long and difficult primary fight. Trump's popularity in Iowa had continued to decline in the Hawkeye State (it was down to 39-47 according to a late October PPP survey) however, so despite many Iowan's mistrust of Warren and especially Cortez Masto, Warren was able to squeak out a victory 49.79-49.49.

Senate

Joni Ernst was considered a possible Secretary of Agriculture in a Trump second term cabinet, though there was no evidence that Sonny Perdue was considering stepping down if Trump won. However, she was up for reelection now, and Democrats were determined to defeat her. The DSCC wanted Tom Vilsack, however, he declined, and Democrats instead nominated former State Representative Kevin McCarthy (no relation to the Kevin McCarthy who was the House Minority Leader). McCarthy, who had once been the Iowa House Minority Leader, ran a good campaign and got significant outside support, but Ernst ran a better campaign, and received outside support as well, to earn a narrow 49.92-49.17 victory.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Abby Finkeauer had defeated Rod Blum in 2018, but Republicans felt they could beat her in 2020.
Republicans nominated State Representative Kristi Hager, who was considered a solid recruit. However, the climate was considered strong for Democrats, with Warren winning and Ernst winning by a microscopic margin against a weak recruit, and Finkeauer ended up winning 54-44.7.

Second Congressional District

For the second straight cycle, President Trump won this district, and this gave Dave Loebsack no end of agita. Making matters worse Republicans had found a better recruit than what they got in 2018 in  State Senator Dan Zumbach, who had run for Secretary of Agriculture in 2018, and lost in the Primary. With Trump and Ernst winning the district (quite easily in Ernst's case) Zumbach was able to give Republicans their nineteenth gain (to four for the Democrats).

Third Congressional District

Cindy Axne had defeated David Young in 2018, but 2020 had the potential to be very different. Unlike the Second District, President Trump did not carry this district again, but he came very close to doing so, leaving Axne in trouble if Republicans found a strong opponent. Their idea of a strong nominee turned out to be former U.S Director of the Office of Management and Budget Jim Nussle. Nussle, who served as a Congressman from previous incarnations of the First and Second Districts, hadn't run a competitive race since losing the Governor's race to Chet Culver. Nussle's rust proved be the deciding factor in his defeat, as Axne won reelection 54-45.

Fourth Congressional District

Everyone had finally had enough of Steve King, especially after he'd delivered a speech from the House floor calling for the invasion of Mexico, and the mass murder of the citizens thereof, a speech which was ignored even by Trump, a sign of just how depraved it was. Democrats found what they thought was the perfect nominee in former Iowa State Cyclones Men's Basketball Guard John Neal. Admittedly, Neal wasn't very well known, and the Cyclone teams he played on were mediocre, but Neal ran a strong campaign, and appealed to the Republican sensibilities of the district, by pledging to vote for whoever the Republicans put up for Speaker. It worked, as Neal gave Democrats a (tainted) pickup 51-48.9, their fifth, against nineteen for Republicans.

[NewYorkExpress]

Texas

President Trump had won Texas by the closest margin for a Republican since George H.W Bush's win 1992, in 2016. Most thought Warren would lose by a similar margin, or by a slightly greater margin in 2020, however her pick of Cortez Masto as her running mate cranked up turnout among Hispanic Americans, and Trump's popularity, while it didn't slip to the depths of other states, wasn't particularly dominating either, like it was in states like Oklahoma, Mississippi or Arkansas. So by September, everyone on both sides of the aisle, except for Warren herself, saw a chance for Warren to win. Most of the action in Texas was limited to Cortez Masto and Pence, as while Trump did make some stops here, he just had too many states to campaign in, while much of the overall legwork was really done in advertising, and Warren and associated outside groups narrowly outspent Trump and his backers. That difference proved to be the difference in what proved to be the most shocking victory of the election, as Warren stunned everybody, including herself with a 49.26-48.46 victory in the Lone Star State.

Senate

With Mitch McConnell's retirement, and the Democrats likely to take control of the Senate, John Cornyn would become Minority Leader if he won reelection, and he was determined to reach that position, and then become majority leader in 2022.

Democrats for their part, really wanted either Castro brother to run for the seat, especially after Beto O'Rourke's victory over Ted Cruz in 2018, but Julian chose to run for President (dropping out after finishing seventh in Iowa and sixth in New Hampshire, and then endorsing Warren), while Joaquin chose to run for reelection. Democrats instead were forced to turn to a much weaker candidate in former Houston Mayor Annise Parker. Parker was, like O'Rourke far more progressive on many issues than the Texas electorate, but unfortunately for her, she was an open lesbian, when the electorate in Texas simply would not support electing one to high office (a YouGov poll of Texas voters taken in July 2020, said that 50.6%, including 91% of Republicans would never support a LBGTQ candidate for any office). This simple fact contributed to a major disappointment for Democrats, as Cornyn won 59-40, and seemed ready to become Minority Leader (his only real plausibe opponents were John Thune, Mike Lee, with Mitt Romney as a dark horse candidate...if he were interested, which Romney denied).

House of Representatives

Seventh Congressional District

Lizzie Pannlli Fletcher had pulled off a rather impressive upset of John Culberson in 2018. Despite speculation that Culberson would go for a rematch, Culberson had instead chosen to run for Mayor of Houston in 2019, forcing a runoff with the incumbent Sylvester Turner, before losing to him that December. Instead, Republicans nominated the President and CEO of the Houston Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, Laura Murillo. Murillo being Hispanic negated many of Pannili Fletcher's advantages with that voting bloc, and the fact that she did the opposite of many Republicans and ran an exclusively positive campaign didn't hurt either, leading to a victory for her over Panilli Fletcher 51-48, for the Republicans twentieth pickup against five for Democrats.

Twenty-Third Congressional District

Gina Ortiz Jones had a rough time of it against Will Hurd in 2018, but she'd emerged victorious. Hurd however, was back for a rematch in 2020. Ortiz Jones, after mulling a bid for the Senate for several weeks, committed to a reelection campaign. Unfortunately for her, she had voted to make Nancy Pelosi Speaker, which was not popular in the district, and spoken out against a proposed amendment to the Texas Constitution which would have added term limits for elected officeholders (the problem with the amendment was it included the position of U.S Senator and Congressperson, which violated the U.S Constitution). Hurd attacked her for this, but Trump was not particularly popular in the district (in fact, he lost this district), and as a result, Ortiz Jones narrowly survived 49.8-49.3.

Thirty-Second Congressional District

Collin Allred had defeated Pete Sessions in 2018, and as an added bonus, Warren became the second Democrat in a row to carry this district. Republicans nominated State Senator Van Taylor to face Allred, in what was expected to be a bloody battle. However, Allred quickly pulled away, largely helped by a gaffe Taylor committed on the stump, when he called George Soros "the spawn of Satan" at a fundraiser. Allred ended up winning 54-44, but Republicans weren't going to give up in 2022, especially because they still had control over redistricting.

[Cold War Liberal]

SUPERMEGA LANDSLIDE INCOMING!!!!

N U T

[NewYorkExpress]

SUPERMEGA LANDSLIDE INCOMING!!!!

N U T

It isn't quite, and it won't be Hubert Horatio Humphrey's 538-0 drubbing of Barry Goldwater that I seem to recall you writing.

[NewYorkExpress]

Florida

President

As traditional, Florida remained a battleground, and some would say the ultimate battleground state. Two years prior Democrats and Republicans had split results, with Rick Scott getting elected Senator, Andrew Gillium getting elected Governor, and Democrats making several gains among the Congressional membership. Warren put forth a concerted effort to win the Sunshine State from the word go, including playing hard in the primary, and while she didn't pick Gillium as her running mate (she did have former Congressman Robert Wexler on her longlist, along with Congresswoman Val Demings, but she chose not to pick either), she got his early endorsement (compared to Stacey Abrams in Georgia, who had endorsed Kamala Harris), and was rewarded with small but consistent leads in almost every poll. Florida was also the one of the most visited states in the campaign, as the four candidates, and their surrogates visited some portion of the state a combined one thousand forty three times between the Democratic National Convention (held in Houston, which almost certainly helped Warren carry Texas by the narrow margin she did), and the General Election. However, the general mood of the country was against Trump, and that largely included Florida too, as Warren emerged with 49.99-48.96 victory.

House of Representatives

Fifth Congressional District

Al Lawson had won what appeared to be a hard fought Democratic Primary in 2018, but he chose to retire in 2020. His Primary opponent, former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown won the Democratic nomination, and was seen as the favorite in this heavily Democratic district. However, Republicans tried to make Brown sweat, nominating Jacksonville State Attorney Melissa Nelson. In a more favorable district, in a year that was more favorable to Republicans, this seat might well have flipped. However, those conditions were not in play, and despite some of the worst campaigning of the cycle from Brown, he won anyways 50-48, underperforming the usual Democratic performance in the district by a wide margin.

Sixth Congressional District

Nancy Soderberg had pulled off an impressive upset of Michael Waltz in 2018, but Republicans were certain they could take this seat back. Republicans nominated former State Representative Jason Brodeur, who ran a clean disciplined campaign, and secured the Republicans twenty-first gain (against five for Democrats) 50.1-49.4.

Seventh Congressional District

Stephanie Murphy sat in a true tossup district, and would constantly face Republican challenges. This time, she faced State Representative Bob Cortes. This was a race that truly went to the wire, and wasn't decided on election night, or in fact for multiple weeks afterwards. But Murphy used the anti-Trump environment to power herself to a 49.95-49.92 victory.

Thirteenth Congressional District

Republicans actually put in a serious effort to defeat Charlie Crist this year...but they weren't the only ones. Progressives also saw Crist as a turncoat, and they sponsored a primary challenge from St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriesman, who had previously been endorsed by Crist in the past. Progressives love Kriseman's bold progressive platform, and his endorsement Bernie Sanders helped as well (Warren stayed neutral, only telling reporters during her own primary, that she would support the winner, whoever it was, which didn't really satisfy many progressives). Kriesman ultimately defeated Crist 51-49.

Awaiting the winner was the Republican nominee, State Representative Christopher Latvala. Latvala was a good candidate to capitalize on the turmoil for Democrats in the district, however, again, Trump was unpopular, and as a result Kriesman defeated Latvala 54-44.

Fifteenth Congressional District

Kristen Carlson had pulled off a rather impressive upset in beating Russ Spano in 2018, but this was a Republican friendly district. Republicans nominated former State Representative Ben Albritton to face her and he quickly jumped out to the lead. Carlson was able to close the gap, but Albritton secured the pickup, the Republicans twenty-second (against five for Democrats) 50-48.

Twenty Third Congressional District

Debbie Wasserman Schultz remained unpopular with progressives, and after two straight cycles of nuts like Tim Canova, they got serious and backed a serious campaigner in State Representative Katie Edwards-Walpole. While Walople did say she would have supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, she also slammed Wasserman Schultz for rigging the Democratic Primaries that year, making it heavy theme of her campaign, strongly stating that Bernie Sanders never got a chance to prove he would be a better nominee than Clinton because of the heavy handedness of Wasserman Schultz. She also called for the DNC (and for Warren, should she be elected President) to prohibit current elected office holders from serving in posts there, and also hit Warren on putting Israeli politics above American politics, saying that it was a disservice to both countries and that Israel and the United States should have a relationship of equals, not a relationship where one side is dominant. The message seemed to resonate, as Edwards-Walpole defeated Wasserman Schultz in the primary 51-49, then went on to defeat 2018 candidate Carlos Reyes 77-22.

Twenty Fifth Congressional District

Mary Barzee Flores had defeated Carlos Curbelo in 2018, but Republicans thought they had a shot at taking the seat back. Their nominee was former Miami Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barriero, who had run for the Twenty Eighth District in 2018. However, this was not a good year for Republicans, and Barzee Flores easily defeated Barriero 57-42.

Twenty Sixth Congressional District

Debbie Murascel Powell had defeated Carlos Curbelo in 2018, but she was widely considered a weak Congresswoman, and Republicans were chomping at the bit to get rid of her. They nominated former Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera. Unfortunately for Lopez-Cantera, his candidacy had one big flaw. He was born in Spain, meaning he wasn't Cuban-American, a major turnoff for Cuban Americans in the district. Still, Lopez-Cantera barely managed to beat Murascel Powell 49.78-48.67, for the Republicans twenty-third gain (against five for Democrats).

Twenty Seventh Congressional District

Donna Shalala chose to retire, largely because of her age, which raised the question of why she ran in 2018 to begin with. Democrats nominated State Senator Jose Javier Rodriguez, while Republicans nominated former Congressman Carlos Curbelo (who had resisted running for this seat in 2018). Curbelo ran a strong campaign, but the anti-Trump tide was too much for him, and Javier Rodriguez won 52-46.9.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kansas

President

Republicans had carried Kansas in every Presidential election since 1964, and even 1964 was the only time a Democrat had carried it since Franklin Delano Roosevelt's wins in 1932 and 1936, and those were the first two times since Woodrow Wilson had carried it in 1916. No one really thought things would be different in 2020, as Warren didn't campaign here, and no ads were run by either Presidential campaign, here. Trump won easily here 58-40.9.

Senate

Pat Roberts had almost lost the Republican primary in 2014, and by Election Day 2020 he would be eighty four years old. He chose to retire, rather than face another difficult primary, especially after falling and breaking his nose on the steps of the U.S Capitol in May 2019.

Republicans had a contested primary between former Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins, former Congressman Todd Tiahrt, former Treasurer Ron Thornburgh, Businesswoman Jen Sanderson and
former Secretary of Corrections Joseph Norwood. Everyone except Norwood came in with some statewide recognition, with Jenkins and Tiahrt being Congresspeople, Thornburgh being a former statewide official, and Sanderson serving as the running mate for Ken Selzer in the 2018 Gubernatorial race. Norwood did serve in the cabinet of Jeff Colyer during his brief tenure as Governor, but he was likely to be left in the dust during the primary. The primary was bitter, with the frontrunners, Tiahrt, Thornburgh and Jenkins, attacking each other, and Jenkins seemed to take the brunt of the damage. Ultimately, the final result was a victory for Thornburgh with 29.3% of the vote to 26% for Tiahrt, 17% for Jenkins, 16% for Sanderson and 11% for Norwood.

Democrats meanwhile nominated Congresswoman Sharice Davids to face him. While Davids had pulled off an impressive win in 2018 to earn her House seat, she faced a difficult challenge to win statewide in a state that had not elected a Democrat to the Senate since George McGill won reelection to a full term in 1932, the longest streak in the nation. While Davids ran a strong campaign, this streak would not break this year, as Thornburgh won 55-44.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Paul Davis had pulled off a stunner of sorts by defeating the morally bankrupt Steve Watkins in 2018, but it was widely assumed his 2020 opponent would be stronger. Republicans nominated one of Watkins's primary foes to face Davis in former State Representative Kevin Jones. Trump had easily won the district, and Jones was able to use that to his advantage on his way to a 54-45 victory, which was the Republicans twenty-fourth gain (against the Democrats five)

Third Congressional District

Sharice Davids had won this open seat in 2018, but she was abandoning it to run for the Senate in 2020. Democrats, however, found a capable nominee in former Secretary of Agriculture Josh Svaty. Svaty did face the problem of carpetbagging over from the Third District, but he quickly cleared the field for the Democrats.

Republicans meanwhile, nominated former State Representative Patty Markley to face him. Markley faced the humiliation of losing her own primary for reelection in 2018, and while she was conservative enough for the district normally, Svaty was just moderate enough to hold the seat, and that he did, 51-48.7.

Fourth Congressional District

Ron Estes's disappointing performance in both the 2017 special election and in 2018, led Democrats to seek a candidate who they thought might have a chance at beating him, a tall order in a heavily Republican District, but one they thought might be doable. Their nominee was a local legend in former Wichita State Men's Basketball Head Coach Gregg Marshall, who had announced at the filing deadline after leading Wichita State to the NCAA Tournament Final Four in both 2018-2019 (losing to Kentucky) and 2019-2020 (losing to Kansas), the first time the Shockers had ever made back-to-back Final Fours. While Democrats hoped Marshall's fame, and the moderate stances he took on the issues would  lift them to an unlikely gain, Republicans tried to make Gregg Marshall the coach and Gregg Marshall the potential Congressman separate in voters eyes. They failed, as Marshall's fame, and the moderate stances he took on the issues led him to a 49.67-49.62 victory for the Democrats sixth gain against twenty-four for Republicans (however it took Estes almost eighteen days to concede, as this race was one of the last ones called).

[NewYorkExpress]

Michigan

President

President Trump had only won Michigan by ten thousand seven hundred and four votes in 2016, but no serious pundit thought he would win it again. Despite speculation that Justin Amash would launch a primary challenge or a third party bid (he did neither), Trump campaigned hard here, as did Pence did, but it was to no avail, as Warren emerged with a 51-48 win.

With Warren's victory in Michigan, she officially clinched the honor being the 46th President, and Catherine Cortez Masto clinched the 49th Vice President.

Senate

Gary Peters was running for a second term, and Republicans thought they had a decent shot of taking him down. As such several Republicans chose to try and challenge him. They were, former Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, former State Senator Arlan Meekhof, former State Senator Mike Kowall, and former Congressman Kerry Bentivolio. Calley was the clear favorite in the primary, as Kowall and Meekhof didn't have a major statewide reputation, despite Meekhof being a former Majority Leader in the Michigan Senate, while Bentivolio had a horrible reputation at best for being a fictional Santa, who'd filed for bankruptcy, appearing in a controversial movie in 2011, and being accused of threatening students at a local Michigan High School, and being called by his brother "mentally imbalanced". Calley withstood all attacks, and steamrolled his way through the primary with 61% of the vote, to 17% for Meekhof, 14% for Kowall and 8% for Bentivolio.

Despite Calley being a strong recruit, he was easy to tie to the relatively unpopular Rick Snyder, and thanks to several ads highlighting that connection, despite a rare political endorsement and ads cut on behalf of Calley from Autism Speaks, that Peters won 55-44.

House of Representatives

Sixth Congressional District

Matt Longjohn had narrowly won in 2018, but Republicans were targeting this seat. Their nominee was State Representative Brandt Iden. Iden was a strong candidate, and won easily 57-42.7 for the Republicans twenty-fifth gain (against six for Democrats)

Eighth Congressional District

Elissa Slotkin's victory over Mike Bishop had been a mild surprise to some in Michigan, but Republicans were confident that they could win the seat back. Their nominee was State Representative Michael Webber. Webber was a solid recruit, but Slotkin ran an expert campaign (especially compared to Longjohn), and ended up emerging with a win 50-48.

Eleventh Congressional District

Haley Stevens's victory in 2018 had been a modest surprise for some in National Politics, but Epstein quickly proved it was no fluke, raising more money than any Michigan Democrat not named Gary Peters. Republicans nominated former State Representative Patrick Colbeck, but he was dwarfed by Stevens's fundraising abilities, and she won 54-45.

[NewYorkExpress]

(Sorry for the long delay...blame it on disenchantment with the actual 2018 results)

Oklahoma

President

No one realistically thought Elizabeth Warren had anywhere near a fighting chance in the Sooner State. Even in the most optimistic analysis of the campaign for Warren had her losing by twenty, and she ultimately lost 66-31, with Joe Miller getting 2.8% of the vote.

Senate

Jim Inhofe was long one of the most controversial Republican Senators for his repeatedly calling global warming a "hoax". He would also be eighty five years old on election day, and though he was in good health, he had gotten calls from Governor Kevin Sitt to retire, citing his age and a rambling questioning of Neil DeGrasse Tyson in a committee hearing in March 2019 in which he suggested that science "was the work of the Illuminati". Inhofe announced he would retire in July 2019, and Republicans had a contested primary between former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, Businessman Christopher Barnett and Former Congressman J.C Watts. Barnett never really was a factor in the race, and Pruitt's ethical problems (which dated back to his days as Oklahoma Attorney General) were a heavy counterweight to his vociferous support of President Trump,who remained popular, while Watts was a rusty campaigner, having not run for elected office since his final campaign for Congress in 2000, twenty years prior. However, Trump remained neutral in the race, and Watts was able to ride endorsements from Vice President Pence, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum to victory in the primary with 51% of the vote to 39% for Pruitt and 10% for Barnett.

Democrats got their strongest candidate, at least in theory in former Governor Brad Henry. However, like Watts, Henry was rusty as a candidate, having not run in an election since winning reelection in 2006, and unlike Watts, Henry didn't even get a primary challenge. In addition, Watts was very hard to tie to the still unpopular Mary Fallin, so while Democrats were able to go on offense here, it was going to be close to impossible to win, especially with Trump rolling to victory atop the ballot. Ultimately, Watts emerged with a 53-41 victory, with the Libertarian nominee earning 5.35% of the vote (most of whom said Watts was their second choice).

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Markwayne Mullin had gotten into political trouble for breaking his term limit pledge in 2018, but he'd avoided paying a serious price for it that cycle in the primary. This would not be the case in 2020, as only one challenger faced Mullin, and it was a more serious threat than anyone he'd faced in 2018. State Assemblyman Avery Frix was his opponent, and Frix ran a strong serious campaign from the word go, attacking Mullin on the term limit pledge,while also making it clear that he would not limit himself to any specific number of terms in office. Frix was applauded, both in Oklahoma and in Washington D.C for his honesty, and he ultimately won the primary 51-48.9.

This was a very hostile district for Democrats, and they ultimately settled on 2018 candidate Clay Padgett as their nominee. Frix flattened Padgett 69-30.

Fourth Congressional District

Tom Cole announced he would retire early on in the cycle, and in January 2020 he announced he would run for Mayor of Oklahoma City in 2022 (announcing almost nine months before the incumbent Mayor, David Holt, announced his plans for 2022). Republicans had a contested primary between former State Representative Pat Ownbey and State Representative Marcus McEntire. McEntire wound up winning the primary, 55-44.9, pulling away after a variety of negative ads.

This was another heavily Republican district, and Democrats ultimately nominated 2018 candidate Mallory Varner, who ended up getting flattened by McEntire 68-31.

Fifth Congressional District

Steve Russell had narrowly defeated Kendra Horn in 2018, but the effort spooked him and he chose not to run for reelection. Then, three weeks before Election Day, Russell resigned to become Oklahoma Secretary of Veteran's Affairs (a position that could only go to a solider that was honorably discharged, like Russell). While most anticipated a crowded primary, Republicans united around Oklahoma City Councilman Todd Stone.

With Horn coming as close as she had, Democrats thought they had an opportunity here, and they nominated State Representative Jason Dunnington. Dunnington ran an even better campaign than Horn had, but with both Trump and Watts carrying the district, this was going to be an uphill battle. In  the end, Stone ran behind both Trump and Watts, but narrowly won, 51-49 in the general (Governor Sitt opted to let the seat remain vacant until the winner could be sworn in, citing the short amount of time between Russell's resignation and the General Election)

Nebraska

President

While no one seriously thought Nebraska's statewide Electoral Votes would be in play, like Maine, Nebraska divided it's Electors by Congressional District, and most experts thought Elizabeth Warren would be able to win the Second Congressional District. Warren played hard in the Omaha based Second, and even put late resources in the Lincoln based First. While Trump won statewide 58-39 (Joe Miller picked up 2.77% of the vote to finish third), Warren won the Omaha based Second Congressional District and came within five percent of the vote of winning the Second Congressional District (her margin of defeat was from getting crushed in the Third Congressional District).

Senate

Ben Sasse was a constant critic of President Trump and was speculated to be a possible primary challenger. He declined to run for President, but he was one of John Kasich's first endorsers, and for that he would face a primary challenge. Jeff Fortenberry declined to run, but Trump supporters found a candidate in former Congressman Lee Terry.Terry wasn't really who Trump supporters had in mind, but after Sasse said he would vote for removing Trump from office in a hypothetical impeachment trial,they flocked to him. Terry won the primary 56-44, an embarrassing margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator in a primary.

Democrats, as usual had trouble finding a candidate to run on their side of the aisle. Their first three choices (Chris Buetler, Brad Ashford, Kara Eastman) all declined to run, and they ultimately nominated the outgoing Nebraska Men's Basketball Head Coach Tim Miles, who had been fired after going from losing the NIT final in the 2018-2019 season, to going winless in out of conference play in the 2019-2020 season. Unlike Gregg Marshall, Miles wasn't a coaching icon in his sport, and unlike Tom Osborne he wasn't an in-state coaching legend. Also unlike Marshall, he was running statewide, not in one district, meaning he would have a harder job winning. Terry ultimately won the General Election 58-40.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Kara Eastman had won narrowly in 2018, and Republicans were convinced they could win the seat back in 2020. Their nominee was Former Treasurer Don Stenberg, who at seventy two would be one of the oldest new Congressmen elected in 2020 if he won. Stenberg attacked Eastman for being a "liberal", ignoring the fact she hadn't voted for Nancy Pelosi for speaker, while Eastman attacked Stenberg for being too supportive of both President George W. Bush (still unpopular with the progressive base) and President Trump. Ultimately Warren's win in the district was enough to save Eastman, as she won by a narrow margin 50-48.98, as Stenberg once again came up short in an attempt to move up/move to Federal Office.

[NewYorkExpress]

Wisconsin

With President Trump having won Wisconsin by a narrow margin (22,748 votes over Hillary Clinton) in 2016, so everyone and their mother knew Wisconsin would once again be close. The ads and spending was thick and flying, with over seventy million dollars spent between the two candidates, and millions more in Super PAC money (mostly pro-Trump). In addition, the candidates spent plenty of time here, with Trump making thirty one trips and Pence twenty seven visits between the Republican National Convention and the General Election, while Warren made thirty nine trips, and Cortez Masto made twelve trips.

Warren had a major problem, in that her running mate choice, in Cortez Masto was not popular in Wisconsin, with former Governor (and Trump surrogate) Scott Walker calling Cortez Masto an "illegal immigrant" despite her not only being born in the United States, but her father also being a United States Citizen, and that fired up the Republican base in the state. At the same time, President Trump was growing steadily more unpopular (a CNN exit poll had Trump's approval at 39-50), meaning this race remained competitive. Ultimately, Warren won by the slimmest of margins 49.97-49.91, a difference of around eight hundred votes, and triggering a recount that lasted until two days before the electors met.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Bryan Steil's unusually close victory over Randy Bryce had given Democrats hope that they could win this Republican leaning district in 2020. Making things seem more attractive for them was that Bryce was a horrible candidate. Their 2020 nominee, Racine Mayor Cory Mason was a far stronger candidate, and after an aggressive campaign (he raised four million six hundred sixty three thousand dollars, and spent two million three hundred and ninety six dollars), he emerged victorious 52-47.7, for the Democrats seventh gain (against twenty five for Republicans).

Third Congressional District

Ron Kind had largely skated by in 2018,but this would not be the case in 2020. Republicans nominated former State Assemblywoman Kristen Dexter. Dexter was relatively rusty in election campaigns, having not run a race since a 2012 State Senate recall election, however she quickly shook off the rust to give Kind his closest race in a decade. However, Warren narrowly won the district, and that proved to be decisive, as Kind won 49.9-49.3.

Fifth Congressional District

Jim Sensenbrenner opted to retire rather than seek another term. Republicans nominated former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, while Democrats nominated perennial candidate Chris Rockwood (2018 being the only cycle in the prior five that he had not run for office). Kleefisch dominated Rockwood 64-36.

Eighth Congressional District

Glenn Grothman was Wisconsin's most controversial Congressman, and Democrats actually found a serious challenger in State Representative Amanda Stuck. Stuck ran a near-perfect campaign in a relatively Republican district, but ultimately, what sunk Grothman, was calling Stuck a "whore" on a hot mike at a campaign rally in Wautoma. Stuck won 50.1-48.8 for the Democrats eighth pickup, against twenty five for Republicans.

[NewYorkExpress]

Illinois

President

Despite the Land of Lincoln swinging somewhat to the right in 2016, that was probably attributable to Barack Obama no longer being atop the ballot. As such no serious pundit thought Illinois would be competitive, and even if President Trump wanted to go on offense, he couldn't as he was playing defense in far too many states to do so. As such, Warren won here easily, despite losing the Illinois Primary (53-46.9), 60-35, with Ajamu Baraka earning 2.8% of the vote (one of his best performances anywhere, and almost all of his votes coming from Chicago), and Joe Miller earning 2.03% of the vote.

Senate

After the 2016 elections, Dick Durbin had been jumped by Chuck Schumer in the race for Minority Leader. Now, with Democrats poised to take back the majority, insiders thought Durbin had two choices, either challenge Schumer for Minority Leader, or retire. Durbin didn't especially want to remain Whip in the majority, despite being good at it, and being skeptical of his chances against winning against Schumer in a leadership contest, he chose to retire. Despite visions of a crowded primary, once former Attorney General Lisa Madigan expressed interest in the race, the field cleared for her. Madigan did have her flaws, however, with her father Michael being considered the most unpopular person in Illinois. However, she brushed aside a primary challenge from activist and 2019 Chicago Mayoral candidate Catherine Brown D'Tycoon 78-22.

Republicans had trouble finding a candidate, but ultimately turned to the late entry of former Congressman Bob Dold. Dold had two problems. One was the fact that Warren was easily winning the state, while the other was that Dold offered no policy specifics at all, instead choosing to make his campaign exclusively an anti-Madigan screed, a campaign that might have worked in another cycle (like if he'd run for Governor in 2014, for example, or had Rauner retired in 2018, and Dold ran in his place). Madigan ended up winning by a closer than expected 54-44, and many Democrats blamed Michael Madigan for her low margin of victory, with some (most notably Kirsten Gillibrand and Joe Biden) asked him not to run for reelection in 2022.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Bobby Rush surprised many observers of Chicago politics by announcing he would not run for reelection in the Summer of 2019. A dozen candidates announced that they would run, creating a crowded primary, but Chicago Alderman Pat Dowell quickly separated herself from the large group of political novices, winning the primary with 49% of the vote. In this district, that was tantamount to election, though she still had to face a Republican opponent, and that opponent turned out to be John Morrow, who had been the nominee in the Second District in 2016. Dowell, as expected won easily 80-20.

Third Congressional District

After coming close to beating Dan Lipinski in 2018, progressives were eager to try again. However, Lipinski didn't give them a chance, announcing he would not run for reelection, and accepting an appointment (which would begin after the new Congress was sworn in), to become director of the Illinois Department of Labor (J.B Pritzker's second attempt at naming a Director of Labor, after his previous choice was forced to resign after he was caught accepting a two hundred fifty thousand dollar bribe to have the Department of Labor look the other way about abusive treatment of employees by local management of a Macy's in Chicago (one store manager was accused sexually harassing female employees, while another manager at the same Macy's was accused of barring employees she was responsible for from taking bathroom breaks, and denying those employees their lunch breaks)). Progressives were now able to find a nominee closer to their interests, and 2018 nominee Marie Newman ran again. But the field didn't clear for her, and Will County Supervisor Jackie Traynere faced her in the primary, dividing progressive loyalties. Traynere ended up narrowly beating Newman in the primary 51-49.

Republicans had been unprepared in 2018 for the divisive Democratic primary, nominating the former chair of the American Nazi Party, Arthur Jones. They vowed to be better prepared in 2020, but couldn't find a strong nominee again, ultimately turning to political commentator Dan Proft, who had run for Governor in 2010, finishing sixth out of seven candidates in the Republican Primary that year. While Proft was a far superior candidate to Jones, he was still far too conservative for the district, and Traynere ultimately won 55-44.4.

Sixth Congressional District

Republicans chose to target Sean Casten, and they successfully persuaded former Congressman Peter Roskam, whom Casten had defeated to seek a rematch in 2020. While Roskam might have won if Pence was the nominee atop the ballot (as he wasn't as controversial as Trump), Trump's presence atop the ballot doomed him. Meanwhile, Casten did make waves in the Senate race by being the only Democrat in Illinois's Congressional Delegation to not endorse Lisa Madigan for Senate, but it wasn't enough to put a dent in his chances, as Casten won 53-46.8.

Seventh Congressional District

Danny Davis's decision to retire left two holes, one in his district, and one in the Congressional Black Caucus, where it was speculated he might be named chair (Kamala Harris expressed interest, if she wasn't appointed to an administration post, but it was unclear if everyone else in the caucus, including new members would agree to her being chair). Fourteen candidates ran, but Cook County Commissioner Dennis Deer ran head and shoulders above everyone, winning the primary with 48.79% of the vote. Republicans again nominated 2018 nominee Craig Cameron, but Deer's winning his primary was tantamount to winning in November, and as expected he won 79-20.

Twelfth Congressional District

For the second straight cycle, Democrats targeted Mike Bost. This time, their candidate was former Assistant Attorney General Erik Jones, who had been a candidate in the Thirteenth District in 2018, and had finished second in the primary. Jones was a solid candidate, but this was a Republican leaning District. Warren and Madigan did both win the district, but they didn't provide the coattails necessary for a Jones victory, as Bost held on 50-49.2.

Thirteenth Congressional District

Erika Dirksen Londrigan had emerged with a nailbiting victory over Rodney Davis, and national Republicans were able to persuade Davis to try for a rematch in 2020. Londrigan made waves when she called J.B Pritzker an "autonomous plutocrat answerable to no one" (Pritzker retaliated by encouraging both houses of the Illinois legislature to strip appropriations from the state budget that would have affected her Congressional District). While Davis again ran a spirited campaign, Londrigan narrowly won reelection 50-49.3, largely due to a reduced Trump margin of victory in the district.

Fourteenth Congressional District

Lauren Underwood had defeated Randy Hultgren in 2018, but this was a Republican leaning district, and Republicans quickly targeted Hultgren. Despite speculation that Hultgren might seek a rematch, he declined to do so, instead announcing for the 2022 Attorney General's race's on Christmas Eve 2020. Instead, Republicans nominated former State Representative Kay Hatcher. Hatcher was a significant step down in candidate quality than Hultgren would have been, and despite this being a Republican leaning district (Warren won it, but so did Dold) Underwood was barely able to survive 49.3-48.4.

Seventeenth Congressional District

Cheri Bustos was touted as potential Speaker of the House, or Senator some day. She had even considered running to succeed Durbin (though she deferred to Lisa Madigan), and was weighing running for Majority Leader, now that Steny Hoyer was on his way out the door (she wanted some time in the upper echelons of leadership before making a bid for Speaker). However, she had to win reelection first, in what, for her would be a potentially hostile climate. Republicans nominated State Senator Neil Anderson, her strongest challenge yet. However, Bustos displayed both her campaigning skill, as well his her talents in winning in hostile territory (both Trump and Dold won the district), on her way to a 52-47.7 victory.