November 2020 and beyond, election madness

[Cold War Liberal]

Warren/Cortez Masto: 315 EVs ✓
Trump/Pence: 103 EVs
Uncalled: 120 EVs

[NewYorkExpress]

South Dakota

President

Like its neighbor to the north, no one seriously thought South Dakota would be competitive in a General Election. Trump was broadly popular here, and as a result won convincingly 65-34.

Senate

Despite some speculation that Mike Rounds was unhappy in the Senate, or that he was angling to replace Sonny Perdue as Secretary of Agriculture in a Trump Second Term, Rounds chose to run for reelection.

Democrats faced a decision about whether or not to contest the seat at all, especially after their top choices (Billie Sutton, Brendan Johnson, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) declined to run, or chose to run in other races. They ultimately nominated former South Dakota State Basketball Forward Tony Feigen. Feigen was a political novice, and ran a poor campaign, and in many ways, his running for the seat was worse than not running a candidate at all, as Rounds won handily 83-16.9, crushing Democrats further down the ballot, and not helping Warren at all (not that she had a chance anyways)

House of Representatives

At-Large-Congressional District

Dusty Johnson's victory in 2018 had come as no surprise to anyone, but he faced what was perceived to be a stronger foe in 2020 in former U.S Attorney Brendan Johnson, whom National Democrats had finally persuaded to run for something (though they really would have preferred him to run for Senate). Unfortunately for Brendan Johnson, the blowouts in both the Senate and Gubernatorial races, left him with an impossible mountain to climb, somewhat like carving another head in Mount Rushmore, and as such he lost to Dusty Johnson 57-41.

Montana

Despite Montana being close as recently as 2008, no one seriously believed that the Treasure State would be anywhere near close in the general election, especially after Steve Bullock chose not to run for President, and Warren chose not to put him on the ticket, despite his making Warren's shortlist. Ultimately, Trump won the state 55-39.7, with Joe Miller earning 4.94% of the vote, one his strongest statewide performances.

Governor

With Steve Bullock term-limited, Democrats were behind the eight ball in terms of finding a quality candidate to run for Governor. Ultimately, their nominee was former State Senator Tom Facey.

Republicans had a contested primary between former Governor Marc Racicot (who would not have been eligible as recently as 2016, as the Montana Constitution allows for a maximum of two terms in any sixteen year span, which Racicot had served between winning election in 1992, and being term-limited in 2000), Attorney General Tim Fox and Auditor Matt Rosendale (who had lost to Jon Tester in 2018's Senate race). While Racicot entered the race with much fanfare he never was able to get going, and it became a two person battle between Fox and Rosendale. Rosendale had higher name recognition thanks to his failed Senate bid, but Fox had key endorsements from Mitt Romney, Kevin McCarthy and Charlie Baker, while Rosendale's most notable endorser was Marco Rubio (Racicot, got the rare endorsement of the loyal to the end President George W. Bush). Fox ended up winning the primary with 45% of the vote, to 34% for Rosendale and 20.87% for Racicot.

In the general election, Fox was able to drown Facey in money, and spending power, ultimately winning the race 51-45 (with the Libertarian nominee earning 3.9%), for the Republicans first Gubernatorial pickup (against three gains for Democrats).

Senate

Democrats really wanted to beat Steve Daines, whose popularity had been slipping. However, they needed quite a bit of arm twisting to persuade their top candidate, Governor Steve Bullock to enter the race, but they succeeded in convincing him, as he entered three weeks before the filing deadline.

Bullock needed everything to go right for him to win, and despite Trump romping to victory atop the ballot, he got enough voters to check off his name (much like Jon Tester in 2012), to earn a 49-46 victory, with the Libertarian nominee earning 4.86% of the vote, for the Democrats fifth gain in the Senate (against one for Republicans, with a runoff in Georgia still to occur).

House of Representatives

At-Large Congressional District

Greg Gianforte was, quite frankly, controversial, and both parties were growing tired of him and his antics. But while Republicans failed to find a primary challenger, Democrats found a powerful nominee in Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney (though National Democrats preferred that he run for Governor instead, as they thought they could beat Gianforte without him). Cooney quickly raced out to the lead, and ended up winning large numbers of Republican voters on his way to a 56-38 victory (the Libertarian earned 5.18% of the vote), for the Democrats ninth gain (against twenty five for Republicans).

[Politician]

Gianforte isn't losing by 18 if Trump is carrying the state by 15.

[NewYorkExpress]

Gianforte isn't losing by 18 if Trump is carrying the state by 15.

Remember, Montana voters like to split their ballots, and Gianforte just barely avoided a primary challenge as well.

In addition, he faced a very strong nominee in the incumbent Lieutenant Governor (Cooney), and was more unpopular than Trump and Daines in Montana.

Cooney will be an underdog in 2022 (especially since it'll be a Warren midterm), and Gianforte's career isn't over yet...maybe he tries for a rematch, or runs against Tester in 2024.

[NewYorkExpress]

Wyoming

President

Wyoming was one of only a handful of states where President Trump was expected to at least match his 2016 percentage, if not improve upon it. Not only did Trump run up a huge margin of victory, he beat his already ridiculous margin of victory from 2016, winning 73-22, with Joe Miller earning 4.62% of the vote.

Senate

By modern standards Mike Enzi was a inoffensive incumbent, and no one seriously thought he would be in any danger, except maybe in a primary. However, he was well aware, that he was likely to be in the minority come the aftermath of the 2020 elections, and he wanted no part of that, and as such he chose to retire. Republicans quickly rallied around Congresswoman Liz Cheney. Democrats didn't really have a hope of winning the race, and ultimately were unable to field a candidate. Cheney beat a Libertarian and a Constitution Party Candidate with 85.6% of the vote (the Libertarian got 9.4%, and the Constitution Party nominee got 5%)

House of Representatives

At-Large Congressional District

With Liz Cheney seeking a promotion to the Senate, her House seat was now open. Republicans were expected to have a crowded primary for the seat, and fourteen Republicans filed. However only five drew attention from both in state and national observers. They were, former Auditor Cynthia Cloud, State Representative Steve Harshman, former State Representative Tom Lubnau, Secretary of State Edward Buchanan, Johnson County Commissioner Bill Novotny and former Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis. Lummis, Cloud and Buchanan had statewide name recognition, while Novotny ran a strong campaign, and was endorsed by several prominent conservatives (and Steve Bannon). The race was tight, and anything was possible, but ultimately Cloud won the primary with 24.57% of the vote to 21.35% for Lummis, 17.17% for Buchanan, 16.67% for Novotny, and 16.58% for Lubnau.

Unlike in the Senate race, Democrats did put up a candidate here, nominating former State Representative Mary Throne (who had gotten flattened in the Governor's race in 2018). While Throne was one of the strongest plausible candidates the Democrats could have gotten, the lean of the state, plus the fact that both Trump and Cheney had crushed their opposition led to a 64-29 victory for Cloud (the Constitution Party nominee earned 5.99% of the vote).

[lfromnj]

The only person that can beat Fletcher in Texas 7th is probably Sarah Davis.

[NewYorkExpress]

The only person that can beat Fletcher in Texas 7th is probably Sarah Davis.

Maybe, but Warren/Cornyn voters were more willing to back Murillo, and that sealed the victory.

In a RL 2020 election, you probably would be correct.

[NewYorkExpress]

Colorado

President

Colorado had steadily been slipping away from the Republican's grasp ever since President Obama had won it in 2008. It was still perceived to be a battleground, but much more so in a Senate race than in a Presidential Race now (sort of like Virginia, actually). Trump made an early effort to claim the state, largely to prop up Cory Gardner, but was forced to pull out once polls showed Warren well out in front here. Warren for her part never personally campaigned in Colorado, only sending Cortez Masto five times between the convention and the general election. Despite the seeming neglect from the Warren campaign, she won handily 56-43.

Senate

Cory Gardner was considered the closest comparison to Dean Heller in 2020, a Republican Senator in a Democratic state, that was endangered by a steadily more anti-Trump climate. Democrats successfully enticed former Governor John Hickenlooper to run, instead of a bid for President, and his run for this seat was likely what prevented a Kasich third party bid as it was well known that he would've been Kasich's running mate in such a campaign. Hickenlooper faced several weaker challengers, none of which were really able to dent him (it helped that he refused to debate them), and he ultimately won the primary with 71% of the vote.

In the general election, Hickenlooper largely rode the Democratic wave to a 54-45 victory, for the Democrats sixth gain in the Senate (against one for Republicans, with the Georgia runoff yet to occur)

House of Representatives

Third Congressional District

Diane Mitsch Busch had won a close election in 2018 in a modest upset, but Republicans were confident that they would win in back in 2020. Their nominee was former Treasurer Walker Stapleton (who had been the Republican nominee for Governor in 2018, losing to Jared Polis that November). Stapleton had significant statewide name recognition, and thanks to his connections to the Bush family (Stapleton's mother was a first cousin of President George H.W Bush, making him a second cousin of President George W. Bush) he was able to raise significant money (nine million dollars total). Despite Mitsch Busch's attacking him as a carpetbagger, Stapleton won the election 50-48.1, for the Republicans twenty sixth gain (against nine for the Democrats)

Sixth Congressional District

Republicans chose to target Jason Crow in 2020, and Michael Coffman opted to try for a rematch. However, the political climate was against Coffman, Crow defeated him 52-46.9.

[NewYorkExpress]

Utah

President

While President Trump had struggled in Utah, he had ultimately won the state over Evan McMullin and Hillary Clinton, and with McMullin not running, no one really gave Warren a chance to win here. Warren however, put Utah on her wish list, well aware of Trump's struggles, to the point of courting an endorsement from Mitt Romney (which she didn't get-while Romney endorsed Kasich in the primary, he chose to endorse Trump in the general election over Warren) running several different advertisements here, and also having Cortez Masto make four campaign stops in the Salt Lake City area. The tactics didn't really add up to a victory, with Trump winning 49-39, with Joe Miller (who put in the most effort in terms of winning the state, spending a total of nineteen full days in the state) earning 11.3% of the vote.

Governor

While Gary Herbert was eligible to run for a third term, but he had faced a primary challenge in 2016, and it seemed likely he would face a stronger one in 2020, which was a primary reason why he chose not to run for reelection. Even with a nominating convention, Republicans still ended up with a primary between Former Congressman Jason Chaffetz, Lieutenant Governor Spencer Cox and Former Congresswoman Mia Love. This was a spectacular battle, with no one earning more than 40% of the vote at the convention (Love got the closest at 39.3% after six ballots, before Utah Republican Party Leaders decided to let all three advance to the primary, a decision which technically violated Utah law, and they were later sued for it by both the Chaffetz and Cox campaigns). In the primary, Love raised the most money, and got most of key endorsements, earning the backing of Mitt Romney, Gary Herbert, Chris Stewart and Rob Bishop, while Chaffetz earned the endorsement of Mike Lee, and Cox picked up the endorsement of Mike Leavitt. Love survived a late fusillade of attack ads from Chaffetz and Cox on her refusal to vote for President Trump in 2016 to win the primary with 35% of the vote to 33.9% for Chaffetz and 32.1% for Cox.

Democrats, meanwhile got a long held wish fulfilled when former Congressman Jim Matheson announced he would run,and the field quickly cleared for him. However, Matheson hadn't run a race for elected office since narrowly beating Love in 2012 for his final term in the House, and he was rusty. In a case of a wish gone wrong, Matheson stumbled out of the gate, making a tasteless joke about Mitt Romney's 2008 and 2012 campaigns at his campaign's launch in Provo (He said that like Trump's Presidential Bid, Romney's Presidential runs were "Manchurian Candidacies"), and never really recovered. Love won 58-41.

Fourth Congressional District

There was no real denying that Ben McAdams was going to have a hard time winning a second term in 2020, with Republicans expected win by large margins both in the Presidential and Gubernatorial races. Some thought he'd try his luck statewide, or that he'd simply retire, but he chose to run for reelection.

While most analysts believed Mia Love would seek a comeback, she chose to instead run for Governor (a race she would be successful in), but Republicans weren't left in the cold in terms of finding a candidate. Mitt Romney's son Josh, announced he was running in late September 2019, and the field quickly cleared for him.

With Republicans storming to victory up and down the ballot, it was quickly obvious that this seat would flip, and Josh Romney indeed did give Republicans their twenty seventh pickup (against nine for Democrats) 55-44.

[NewYorkExpress]

New Mexico

President

Some thought the Land of Enchantment might be competitive with a different Republican nominee to Trump. Despite John Kasich's spirited primary bid, voters (and Republicans) would never find out, as Trump easily secured renomination. In the general election, the pick of Catherine Cortez Masto turned what was looking like a close Warren victory into a blowout, as Warren rolled to a 58-39.7 victory, with Joe Miller securing 2.16% of the vote.

Senate

Despite early speculation that Tom Udall would retire, he chose to run for what he said would be his final term as Senator. Republicans hoped to lure in former Governor Susana Martinez or Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson. However, when both bowed out within days of each other, in April of 2019 (Martinez truly had no interest, while EPA Secretary Scott Pruitt had resigned back in July 2018, and Trump had not nominated a replacement to that point, with Wilson being interested in the job...Trump would ultimately simply nominate Acting Secretary Andrew Wheeler, who as of Election Day 2020 had his nomination still in limbo with the Senate), Republicans had a problem. Their third choice, former Congressman Steve Pearce, also was not interested, even after losing a bid to be the chair of the New Mexico Republican Party, meaning they had a potentially huge recruiting hole. Ultimately Republicans nominated former Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez. Sanchez was one step away from being a perennial candidate, and no one seriously thought he could win, least of all his two time ticket-mate Susana Martinez, who declined to campaign for him. Udall won the General Election 57-29, with the Libertarian candidacy of former Commissioner of Public Lands Aubrey Dunn Jr. earning  13.5% of the vote.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Xochtil Torres Small had pulled off an upset in 2018, and she was considered a plausible pick for a appointed position in a Warren Administration (specifically, Secretary of the Interior, although both Warren and Torres Small denied it). The speculation mounted shortly before the Fourth of July, 2019, when Torres Small became the first member of the New Mexico delegation to endorse Warren (the only New Mexico officeholder to endorse anyone faster was Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, who had endorsed Kamala Harris on Good Friday). In the election, Republicans targeted Torres Small for defeat, and nominated former Auditor Wayne Johnson. Johnson had two problems, that he did not live in the district, and that 2020 looked like it would be a Republican year in New Mexico. Torres Small won another upset (this one being slightly less of a surprise) 50-49.1.

Idaho

President

No one seriously thought that Idaho would be within twenty five points, as Trump was expected to roll to victory here. They were right, as Trump crushed Warren 68-29.9, with Joe Miller earning 2%.

Senate

Jim Risch's decision to retire left an opening that in a state like Nevada or Arizona would have been huge for Democrats. However this was Idaho, so all the action was going to be on the Republican side.  And it was crowded Republican Primary, with several notable candidates running. They were: Former Congressman Raul Labrador, Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeachin, Attorney General Lawrence Wasden, State Representative Mike Moyle and State Senator Mary Souza.

This was an All-Star primary, and attacks between the candidates were fast and furious, with Labrador and Wasden doing most of the attacking, and also trading shots with each other at times. This allowed McGeachin to climb in the polls, and she ultimately won the primary with 30% of the vote to 28% for Labrador, 24% for Wasden, 9% for Moyle and 9% for Souza.

Democrats had no real hope of winning the seat, but they put a nominee up anyways, in former State Representative Brian Cronin (who now served as a member of the Boise School Board-he had chosen not to run for reelection to run for Senator). Needless to say, it wasn't close, as McGeachin won 65-28 (The Independent Candidacy of Pro-Life (previously Marvin Richardson) earned 4.2% of the vote, and the Libertarian nominee earned 2.65% of the vote)

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Mike Simpson was widely considered one of the most likely candidates to run for Senate in 2020, especially after Jim Risch announced he would retire. However he had no desire to get involved in a primary fight, and he chose to stay out of the race. In February of 2019 Simpson announced he would for Mayor of Boise (he lost to incumbent Dave Bieter, who won his fifth term 51-48), and that win or lose, he would not run for reelection in 2020. This had the potential of setting off a potentially explosive Republican Primary, however, the field quickly cleared for State Senator Kelly Anthon.

Democrats wanted Mayor Bieter to run, but he was not interested. Instead, they nominated Boise City Councilwoman Holli Woodings (who had previously served one term as a state Representative). The race wasn't close at all, and Anthon won easily 66-33.6.

[NewYorkExpress]

Nevada

President

Early speculation that Nevada might be closer than expected, if not a Trump victory, was put to rest with the selection of Catherine Cortez Masto as Warren's running mate. With one of the state's two Senators now on the ticket, Warren turned what had been a tossup race, with her leading by margins of anywhere from 1-3 points, to a steadily wider and wider lead. Trump was forced to pull out of Nevada to defend other states on October 12, 2020, and the Warren/Cortez Masto ticket rolled to a crushing 60-32 victory, with Joe Miller earning 4.66% of the vote, and Nevada's unique "None of These Candidates" option earning another 3.11%.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Dina Titus surprised several people by announcing on the filing deadline, a bid for Mayor of Las Vegas in 2019 (the incumbent, Carolyn Goodman wasn't running, citing health concerns). She would ultimately win the election, and resign her seat in the House in Mid June, 2019, to be sworn in. In the special election, former Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani won both the Democratic primary and the general election (defeating four candidates with 69% of the vote in the former, and defeating a former Brian Sandoval staffer in the latter 62-37, with the remaining 1% voting for the "none of these candidates" option). In 2020, Giunchigliani made two notable missteps as a Congresswoman, both involving sports. In December 2019, she defended UNLV Women's Basketball Head Coach Kathy Oliver after several of her players were accused by their peers of throwing games against opponents (UNLV had lost games against Baylor, SMU, Arizona and Arizona State by suspicious scorelines throughout the 2019 nonconference schedule, leaving many fans to wonder if UNLV players were taking a dive). Then, after the 2020 Las Vegas Raiders started 0-5 (losing to the Chiefs twice, as well as the Bills, 49ers and Chargers) in their new home, Giunchigliani offended Raider fans (except in Oakland) by telling Raider management that they had to "play better or move back to Oakland (Yes, there were Raider fans in Las Vegas by this point, always had been, hence why it's called Raider Nation). Giunchiglani's did not face a Republican opponent, but she did face the Independent candidacy of Professional Poker Player Todd Brunson, but he gained little traction. Giunchiglani won 70-17, with a new ballot line "Raider Nation" earning 13% of the vote.

Second Congressional District

Mark Amodei was quite frankly, fed up with politics, and announced he retire, all the while dodging speculation about a bid for Mayor of Reno in 2022. Almost instantly, two Republicans jumped into the race in former Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki and former State Assemblywoman (and by this point perennial candidate) Sharron Angle. Krolicki held the advantage the whole way through, and powered his way to 60-39.6 victory.

Democrats nominated Reno City Councilman David Bobzien, but he would likely need to pull an upset to win. Fortunately, the margins Warren was getting atop the ticket were enough, as Bobzien emerged with the upset victory 48.8-48.6, with the Libertarian nominee earning 2.6% of the vote for the Democrats tenth gain (against twenty seven for Republicans)

Third Congressional District

Republicans targeted Susie Lee for defeat and thought they had secured a top quality nominee, as Joe Heck sought to get his old seat back. However, Heck never received any support from the White House, and Warren's blowout win in Nevada, meant that Lee would survive 53-47.

Fourth Congressional District

Republicans also chose to target Steven Horsford for defeat in 2020. However, they had trouble finding a candidate, after Cresent Hardy opted not to try again. Their nominee, entering at the last minute, was perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian, who all things considered was the worst possible choice for Republicans. Once again, Warren's overwhelming performance, this time combined with Tarkanian's weaknesses as a candidate in his own right, led to an easy win for Horsford 55-44.

[NewYorkExpress]

Washington

President

Despite native son Jay Inslee running for President, he didn't get far enough to be a factor here during the primary process, ultimately dropping out after the Nevada Caucuses and endorsing Warren (who would ultimately emerge with a narrow victory in Washington). In the General Election, no one seriously thought Trump would be competitive (if they thought that about any Pacific Coast State, it would be Oregon), and Warren won 58-41.

Governor

Inslee's decision to run for President, rather than for reelection, left a wide open field. It was expected that both parties would have competitive primaries, however, both Democrats and Republicans found their candidates quickly. However, the thing about Washington was their "top two" primary system, where the top two candidates faced each other in November, regardless of the result in the primary (California had a similar system). In 2020, this was Attorney General Bob Ferguson, a Democrat and former Congressman Dave Reichert, a Republican. Despite Reichert holding the early lead in the polls, Ferguson took the lead in September, and never let go, on his way to a 55-45 victory.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Suzan DelBene chose not to run for reelection, instead opting to run for Secretary of State (she won, defeating the incumbent, Kim Wyman). However, Democrats weren't particularly worried about holding the seat, and they didn't really have to be, as all three of the top candidates were Democrats or otherwise willing to caucus with the Democrats, in Everett City Councilwoman Brenda Stonecipher, Bellingham City Councilwoman Pinky Vargas and State Representative Shelley Kloba. Ultimately Kloba led after the primary with 51% of the vote to 29% for Stonecipher and 20% for Vargas. In the General Election Kloba defeated Stonecipher 56-44.

Third Congressional District

Carolyn Long had defeated Jaime Herrera Beutler in 2018, and despite rumblings of a rematch being in the cards, Beutler chose to instead run for Lieutenant Governor (like Suzan DelBene she defeated an incumbent, Cyrus Habib, albeit by a smaller margin than DelBene's victory over Wyman). Instead, after the top two primary, Long would face Goldendale City Councilman John Sullivan, who she vanquished 52-48.

Fifth Congressional District

Lisa Brown had shocked Cathy McMorris Rodgers in 2018, but McMorris Rodgers was back for a rematch, and she sought revenge. Both advanced out of the top two primary, and in the General Election McMorris Rodgers defeated Brown 50.9-49.1, for Republicans Twenty Eighth pickup (against ten for Democrats).

Eighth Congressional District

Kim Schrier had won a first term in an evenly balanced district, and Republicans targeted her for defeat in 2020. After the top two primary, Schrier faced former Olympic Swimmer Ariana Kukors, who was running as an Independent, but said she would caucus with the Democrats if she won. With voters seeing no real difference between the two candidates, Schrier defeated Kukors 59-41.

[NewYorkExpress]

Alaska

President

Despite early analysts believing that Alaska would be an easy state for President Trump to win, they were thrown off when Joe Miller made a concerted effort to win his home state, spending all but thirty days after receiving the Libertarian nomination in Alaska campaigning. While neither Donald Trump nor Pence campaigned here themselves, they were alarmed enough to send high-level surrogates in Sarah Palin and Melania Trump out to Alaska to save the state. Warren for her part, didn't bother campaigning for herself here, but did cut advertisements for the Democrats House and Senate nominees (as did Cortez Masto). This effort by the Trump campaign, plus Warren's own non-involvement, likely saved the state for the President, who won 35.1-34.2 over Miller, with Warren finishing a surprisingly close third with 30.3%, despite not campaigning in the state at all.

Senate

Dan Sullivan was considered a relatively safe incumbent, at least in a general election, a feeling that only went up after Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz both passed on the race. Alaska Democrats weren't left in the cold, as they nominated former State Representative Beth Kerttula. Kerttula ran a strong campaign, and was helped somewhat by Trump's underperformance, but it wasn't enough for a victory, as Sullivan emerged with a 55-39 victory, with the Libertarian nominee earning 5.03% of the vote.

House of Representatives

At-Large Congressional District

Don Young was once again in hot water. In March of 2019, the House Ethics committee, led by started an investigation, led by Ted Deutch and Susan Brooks began after an expose in the Anchorage Daily News emerged the previous month that detailed Young covering up the sexual assault of an intern in his Congressional office by another intern in his Congressional office, that the paper dated to October 2018. Young was accused of using campaign money to cover up the incident, including allegedly paying off both interns to keep silent. To avoid the investigation, Young announced he would retire. He  didn't quite escape unscathed, as the Ethics committee admonished Young, and referred their findings to the U.S Attorney for the District of Alaska in July of 2020 (who ordered a Grand Jury investigation,  but said investigation returned a no true bill of indictment- whether because of political loyalty or lack of evidence is impossible to determine, though it was telling that the victim did not testify in the Grand Jury proceedings).

With Young not running for reelection, this meant there theoretically could be competitive Republican primary. Speculation swirled around Sarah Palin, but she denied interest (though she notably did not rule out a primary challenge to Lisa Murkowski in 2022). Instead, Republicans would be treated to a primary battle between former Governor Sean Parnell, former State Senator Gene Therriault, and State Senator David Wilson. Of the three, Therriault had the fewest flaws, Parnell had the name recognition (and the endorsement of Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan), and Wilson had the advantage of being able to serve a long time, which Alaskans prized, the support of outside conservative groups, and the endorsement of Sarah Palin. However, Parnell parlayed his huge fundraising advantage into a primary victory with 47% of the vote to 29% for Wilson and 24% for Therriault.

Awaiting Parnell in the General Election was Juneau Assemblyman (the equal to a city councilman in another city) Wade Bryson. Bryson ran a strong campaign, but his best hope of victory was for Young to remain on the ballot, and when that didn't happen, his hopes vanished. Still, Parnell only won by 47-46 margin (with 5.99% going to the nominee of the Alaska Independence Party)

[NewYorkExpress]

Oregon

President

Like Jay Inslee in neighboring Washington, Jeff Merkley launched a long shot Presidential bid. However, he was forced to abandon his campaign after finishing near the back of the pack in Iowa and New Hampshire, plus finishing a distant fifth in Nevada (including finishing behind Amy Klobuchar, who was no longer even running an active campaign-she had dropped out finishing below expectations in Iowa). Even without Merkely on the ticket this was not a state that was expected to be seriously competitive, which was a far cry from 2000 and 2004 when Al Gore had won by less than one percent, John Kerry had barely gotten over 51% of the vote. While in 2016, Hillary Clinton had just barely climbed over 50% of the vote, she had commanded an impressive eleven point margin over Trump. Warren was expected to at least that well, and she ultimately defeated the President 53-38, with Joe Miller earning 5.9% of the vote and Ajamu Baraka earning 2.8%.

Senate

Jeff Merkley had dropped out of the Presidential race shortly before Oregon's filing deadline. However, he chose not to run for reelection as Senator (though he didn't rule out a bid for Governor in 2022, as the incumbent Kate Brown was term-limited). Democrats were expected to have a crowded primary, but they quickly rallied around Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici.

Republicans wanted Greg Walden to run, but he declined. Instead, their nominee was a blast from the past in Former Senator Gordon Smith, who had been serving as a Mormon Missionary since 2012. He'd started his campaign late, largely because no other Republican was running, and was so sure he wouldn't win, that he'd promised his superiors in the Mormon Church that he'd go right back to missionary work. Smith was right in that he didn't win, as Bonamici defeated him 57-42.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Suzanne Bonamici's successful bid for the Senate meant that there was an open seat. This was a seat Democrats were favored to hold, and a crowded primary was expected. However, the field cleared for State Representative Tawna Sanchez. Republicans ran 2018 candidate George Griffith, but they didn't really have much of a chance of winning this district, and Sanchez won 60-39.

Hawaii

President

There wasn't really much of a contest for the Aloha State. Even though Tulsi Gabbard had failed in her bid to become President, dropping out after finishing near the back of the pack in Iowa, and being told by Bernie Sanders that she would not be receiving his endorsement, Democrats were poised to dominate here. Warren won 70-29.8.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Tulsi Gabbard's decision to abandon this seat to run for President left an open seat that attracted local Democrats like a luau attracts tourists. A large number of Democrats ran for the seat. They were, former State Representative Kaniela Ing, former State Senator Donna Mercado Kim, former Lieutenant Governor Doug Chin, former Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris, State Senator Russell Ruderman, and Kaua'i Mayor Bernard Carvalho. After a somewhat tense primary process, Ing won the primary with 20% of the vote to 18% for Chin, 17% for Harris, 17% for Mercado Kim, 14% for Ruderman and 14% for Carvalho. While no Republicans filed for the seat, there was an Independent candidate in former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, but he didn't gain any traction at all, and Ing defeated him 61-39.

[NewYorkExpress]

California

President

Other than nominating nominating someone like Richard Ojeda, there was no real path for Democrats to fall below 55% of the vote in California. Warren did minimal campaigning here (except for the primary, where she made a modest effort to divert delegates from Kamala Harris, and succeeded, getting 41.7% of the vote), while Trump didn't bother to campaign here at all. Warren won 70-28.9.

With the exception of the Presidential race, all California races have a top-two primary, similar to Washington.

Senate-Special

Dianne Feinstein had won a comfortable reelection, and was ready to serve what most believed would be a final six year term. However, she would not get the chance to finish it. On September 24, 2019 after a fundraiser for Warren at the Hollywood Bowl, Feinstein fell and broke both her hip and her left leg. With a long recovery ahead, Feinstein announced her resignation the day after being released from the hospital, November 14, 2019.

On November 19, Governor Gavin Newsom announced his appointed replacement for Feinstein, Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis. Solis, who had been Secretary of Labor for President Obama's first term, and before that a four term Congresswoman. She was widely considered a reliable progressive vote, and largely did not disappoint. However, this was largely an open seat with an unelected incumbent, and that meant a potentially crowded field to face Solis.

Several ambitious candidates from all sides of the political spectrum chose to challenge Solis. They were, former State Senator Kevin De Leon, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (in her second bid for the Senate, she was the only notable Republican running), former Controller Steve Westly, and former Sacramento Mayor Heather Fargo. Solis was heavily favored to ultimately retain the seat, but who he would face was a mystery. Solis secured the top spot in the primary with 41% of the vote, but it was a dogfight for the second slot. Ultimately that spot would go to Fiorina with 24% of the vote, and she was followed by De Leon with 22%, Westly with 8% and Fargo with 4.9%

In the General Election, Fiorina did not do quite as well as she had done in her Senate bid in 2010, but she ran far ahead of Trump, ultimately losing to Solis 57-43.

House of Representatives

Doug LaMalfa had won an uncomfortably close election, and with the Democrats taking over the House, he had been booted off the Committee on Natural Resources and was left with just the Committee on Agriculture, after declining a spot on the Joint Committee on Printing. Still, he chose to run for reelection, but he faced a somewhat quixotic challenge from Redding City Councilwoman Erin Resner (a fellow Republican). Resner attacked LaMalfa on a constitutional amendment he introduced that would overturn the Supreme Court's decision in Obergefell v Hodges (it was defeated on the House floor 261-172, with nine Republicans voting against, plus Nancy Pelosi and Jeff Van Drew abstaining-Pelosi because she was Speaker, Van Drew because of his tough reelection fight, and not really wanting to go on the record on the subject), saying that his "obsession with homosexuals was harming California voters". The District's voters apparently thought differently, as LaMalfa won 52-48.

Third Congressional District

John Garamendi opted to retire rather than seek reelection. Advancing from the top two primary, was former State Assemblyman Jim Frazier and Yuba City Councilwoman Grace Espindola (both Democrats). While Espindola was clearly the more active candidate, Frazier had more name recognition, and raised more money, and won 56-44.

Fourth Congressional District

Tom McClintock had faced an uncomfortably close election in 2018, but even his friends on Capitol Hill were blindsided by his decision to retire. Many were expecting several Republicans to run, however, that wasn't quite the case. Advancing from the primary were Jackson City Councilwoman Marilyn Lewis and former Court of Appeal Appellate Justice Chuck Poochigian (he resigned on December 9, 2019, the same day he declared his candidacy). While Poochigian was a bigger name in California politics, he didn't live in the district any more, and hadn't run in an election since losing the Attorney General's race to Jerry Brown in 2006. As a result, Lewis won 59-41, in an all-Republican election.

Sixth Congressional District

Doris Matsui's decision to run for Mayor of Sacramento surprised much of her campaign staff (she lost to the incumbent, Darrell Steinberg). With the election for Mayor being in June, Matsui basically had to drop any pretense of running for reelection. Four prominent candidates, all Democrats were running for two spots. They were, State Senator Richard Pan, State Assemblyman Kevin McCarty, State Assemblyman Jim Cooper and former First Lady of Sacramento Michelle Rhee. The race quickly became everyone against Rhee, as she was attacked without mercy for her education policy as Schools Chancellor in Washington D.C by everyone else. This turned an early Rhee lead into a huge deficit. Ultimately, the top two were McCarty and Pan with 37% and 30% respectively. Cooper finished third with 21% and Rhee finished dead last with 11.99%.

The General Election was a lot attack happy than the primary had been, but it turned into who would lay claim to Cooper and Rhee's voters. Cooper endorsed McCarty, whlie Rhee declined to endorse anyone. Ultimately, the deciding factor in the race was the late endorsement for McCarty by Gavin Newsom, leading McCarty to a 51-49 victory.

Seventh Congressional District

Once again, Ami Bera faced a tough challenge, and this time his opponent was former State Assemblywoman Beth Gaines. Gaines ran a clearly superior campaign, and it took Warren's victory to save Bera, who won 50.4-49.6.

Eighth Congressional District

Paul Cook opted to retire rather than seek another term. The two candidates who advanced past the primary were both Republicans. They were, former State Assemblyman Tim Donnelly and State Assemblyman Chad Mayes. While Donnelly's views were now closer to the Republican mainstream (Mayes had been forced to resign as Minority Leader of the State Assembly after he voted for an environmental bill that other Republicans opposed back in 2017), Mayes's views were closer to the average California voter. Still despite Democrats overwhelmingly voting for Mayes, they were outnumbered, and Donnelly got into Congress on his third try 54-46.

Tenth Congressional District

Josh Harder defeated Jeff Denham in 2018, and Republicans were praying they'd have a fighting chance in 2020. Denham, indeed sought a rematch, but with Warren romping to victory in the district, Denham didn't have a prayer. Harder won 58-42.

Twelfth Congressional District

Unlike Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn, Nancy Pelosi showed no signs of being willing to retire. She knew there was a risk of not being Speaker, especially as it looked like Democrats would lose some seats, but likely not enough to lose the House, but she had no desire to make concessions to her fellow Democrats. Unfortunately for her, she also faced her toughest challenge ever in a Congressional race, in San Francisco Supervisor Aaron Peskin (who told the San Francisco Chronicle that he would "be delighted to topple the false progressive- Nancy Pelosi). This was toughest race of Pelosi's career, but she ultimately hung on 52.6-47.4.

Twenty First Congressional District

TJ Cox narrowly defeated David Valadao in 2018. Republicans targeted Cox for defeat and recruited State Assemblyman Vince Fong. However, once again, Warren's victory in the district proved to be the death knell for any serious hopes Republicans had of competing here, as Cox won reelection 57-43.

Twenty Second Congressional District

Andrew Janz had shocked everyone (expect those paying really close attention) by defeating Devin Nunes, chief obstructing force of the House Russia investigation in 2018. Both California Republicans, and President Trump vowed revenge, and encouraged Nunes to jump back in for 2020, though he declined to do so. Instead, Janz's only opponent was State Assemblyman Devon Mathis. Mathis proved to be a strong candidate, and despite Warren winning the district, he defeated Janz, who was a weak incumbent 50.3-49.7 for the Republicans Twenty Ninth pickup (against ten for Democrats).

Twenty Fifth Congressional District

Katie Hill had defeated Steve Knight in 2018 by a comfortable margin, but Knight had chosen to run a rematch, and advanced from the top two primary. However, with an easy Warren victory in the district, Knight didn't stand a chance, and Hill won 60-40.

Thirty Ninth Congressional District

Gil Cisneros had beaten Young Kim in 2018. This time, advancing past the primary to face Cisneros was former State Senator Bob Huff, who had previously run for the seat in 2018. Warren's victory in the seat turned a close race into a much clearer victory for Cisneros 55-45.

Forty Fifth Congressional District

Katie Porter had comfortably beaten Mimi Walters in 2018, but Republicans were determined to take her down in 2020. Her opponent was Irvine Mayor Donald Wagner. While Wagner ran a good campaign, Warren's easy win here, led to an easy win for Porter 56-44.

Forty Eighth Congressional District

Harley Rouda had easily beaten Dana Rohrbacher in 2018. This time however, he faced another 2018 opponent in former Assemblyman Scott Baugh. However, as in many other districts, Warren's easy win here, led to an an easy win for the incumbent, in this case Rouda 54-46.

Forty Ninth Congressional District

Mike Levin had won this open seat in 2018, beating Diane Harkey to get there. This time, he faced a past foe in former State Assemblyman Rocky Chavez. However, Warren's easy win, lead to a victory for Levin 56-44.

Fiftieth Congressional District

Amnar Camapa-Najjar had stunned an under indictment Duncan Hunter, but Republicans were confident they could pick up the seat. Campa-Najjar faced San Diego County Supervisor Dianne Jacob. Despite Warren winning the district, this was Republican territory, and Jacob won 51.2-48.8 for the Republicans thirtieth pickup (against ten for Democrats)

Fifty Second Congressional District

Scott Peters opted to forgo reelection to run for Mayor of San Diego (he won), leaving an open seat race. The two candidates facing off after the primary were San Diego City Councilwoman Monica Montgomery and San Diego City Councilman Chris Cate. This was not a Republican friendly district, which left Cate, a Republican, at a disadvantage, and Montgomery ended up winning 61-39.

[Cold War Liberal]

Senator Justin Fairfax = N U T

Well THIS didn’t age well...

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Senator Justin Fairfax = N U T

Well THIS didn’t age well...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROo18OEwAtY

[UWS]

Not so bad for Colorado Republicans as they won CO-03.

[NewYorkExpress]

I know, I've been gone for over a year... I've had a bit of inspiration, and since I haven't been banned yet, I thought I'd continue the one TL I've got going.

The Warren Cabinet and other relevant officials

White House Chief of Staff

Hillary Clinton 2016 Campaign Chairwoman Huma Abedin

White House Press Secretary

MSNBC Morning Joeco-host Mika Brezinski

Ambassador, United Nations

Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch (Confirmed 51-49)

Administrator,Small Business Association

Quibi CEO Meg Whitman (Also former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and eBay, confirmed 50-49)

Administrator, EPA

Science Educator, Televison Presenter, Mechanical Engineer, Bill Nye (Confirmed 50-49)

Director of National Intelligence

Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Retired General Martin Dempsey (Confirmed 51-49)

Director, CIA

Former Deputy Secretary of State, Deputy National Security Adviser Tony Blinken (Confirmed 55-45)

Director, Office of Management and Budget

Former Hewlett Packard CEO, Republican Presidential Candidate, Carly Fiorina (Confirmed 50-48)

U.S Trade Representative

Former Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker (Confirmed 55-45)

Secretary of Agriculture

Former Senator Tom Daschle (Confirmed 49-49, Tie Broken by Vice President Cortez Masto)

Secretary of the Interior

Former Secretary of Homeland Security, Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano (Confirmed 60-40)

Secretary of Commerce

Businessman, owner of the Boston Red Sox and Liverpool FC, John W. Henry (Confirmed 57-42)

Secretary of Labor

Former Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Attorney General of Ohio, Solicitor General of Ohio, Treasurer of Ohio, Richard Cordray (Confirmed 50-50, Tie Broken by Vice President Cortez Masto)

Secretary of Health and Human Services

Former Governor of Vermont Peter Shumlin (Confirmed 51-49)

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development

New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams (Confirmed 57-41)

Secretary of Transportation

Former Governor of Florida, 2016 Republican Presidential candidate Jeb Bush (Confirmed 54-46)

Secretary of Energy

Former Deputy Secretary of Energy Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall (Confirmed 75-25)

Secretary of Education

President of the American Federation of Teachers, Randi Weingarten (Confirmed 50-50, Tie broken by Vice President Cortez Masto)

Secretary of Veteran's Affairs

Former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (Confirmed 51-49)

Secretary of Homeland Security

Former NYPD Commissioner William Bratton (Confirmed 59-38)

Attorney General

Former U.S Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Preet Bharara (Confirmed 51-48)

Secretary of Defense

Retired Admiral William McRaven (Confirmed 70-30)

Secretary of the Treasury

Former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen (Confirmed 55-45)

Secretary of State

Former President of the United States, Barack Obama (Confirmed 53-47)

Senate Runoff Election, Georgia

As Warren's nominees drew a firestorm (at least some them), and Obama's drew a constitutional question (John Roberts implied the Supreme Court, should opponents of the nomination move to sue, would not take it up, stating in a closely watched Q&A at Georgetown University that his opinion was that it was a political question only), other observers turned to the fact there was still a runoff in the Senate to go in Georgia between the incumbent David Purdue, and challenger John Ossoff. Purdue was favored to win the runoff, largely because turnout in Georgia was expected to drop between the general election and the runoff, but both sides saw turnout remain high. Purdue cast the race as a need to keep a check on Warren, while Ossoff cast the race as a battle to send Warren another ally to Congress. Despite Warren winning the state less than a month earlier, the dropoff in turnout between the general election and the runoff was just too much for Ossoff to overcome, as Purdue narrowly held the seat for Republicans 50.4-49.6.

With that, all House and Senate elections in 2020 were now settled.

[NewYorkExpress]

Both Warren and Cortez Masto officially resigned from the Senate on December 19, 2020, one day after they officially became the President and Vice President Elect.

In Massachusetts, there would be a special election within 160 days to replace Warren. However, Governor Baker was allowed to make an appointment of an interim Senator. He was not beholden to pick a Democrat or a Republican, and he considered several people from both parties before making his decision.  His appointment was deliberately planned to not be a candidate, as he knew Joe Kennedy III was interested in running for the seat, and he was contemplating running for the seat himself. He chose former Secretary of the Treasury and Harvard University President Lawrence Summers. Summers indicated he would not seek election (and in any event, polls showed him losing to Joe Kennedy III in a hypothetical primary).

Nevada didn't quite have that problem. Governor Steve Sisolak was free to appoint whomever he wished as interim Senator for an appointment that would end in 2022, which coincidentally was when Cortez Masto's term was to end. Ultimately Sisolak chose Clark County Commissioner Justin Jones. Jones had been elected in 2018, after serving a single term in the Nevada State Senate several years prior. Unlike Summers, it was widely expected that Jones would run for a full term in 2022, but he was expected face a challenge in both the Democratic Primary and the General Election.


The New Leadership-House of Representatives

Speaker of the House- Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Majority Leader- Cheri Bustos (D-IL)

Minority Leader- Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)

Majority Whip- Cedric Richmond (D-LA)

Minority Whip- Steve Scalise (R-LA)

New Leadership, Senate

Majority Leader- Chuck Schumer (D-NY)

Minority Leader- John Thune (R-SD)

Majority Whip- Kamala Harris (D-CA)

Minority Whip- Mike Crapo (R-ID)

Warren's first few weeks

After a well received inauguration speech, Warren faced several immediate challenges. First, was the announced retirement, within a week of each other (to take effect as of end of the Supreme Court) of three Supreme Court justices, two from the liberal wing in Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer, and one from the Conservative wing in Clarence Thomas. Other than Ginsburg, who was believed to be in poor health, the retirements came as a surprise to outside observers. Warren moved quickly to nominate replacements. To replace Ginsburg, Warren chose Circuit Judge (Ninth Circuit) Jacqueline Nugyen, who was confirmed 60-40 in April. To replace Breyer Warren nominate Sri Srinivasan, who was confirmed 60-40 as well in mid May. Several Republicans threatened to put a hold on any nominee to Replace Thomas that wasn't a Conservative, but most of them were talked out of by their leadership in the Senate. Warren ultimately nominated former Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates, which drew protests from both Cory Booker and Tim Scott for replacing an African American man with a White Woman. However, Yates's confirmation also cleared the Senate 60-40 shortly after July 4, 2021.

The second crisis was a second independence referendum for Scotland, which had been scheduled for February 9, 2021 after a deal between the Scottish National Party and Prime Minister Theresa May, who had gambled her political future on a positive (for her) outcome, after getting an acceptable to all sides Brexit Deal in the Summer of 2020, with Britain due to leave the European Union officially on New Year's Day 2022. Warren, in an interview with the BBC had committed a major foreign policy blunder by coming out in favor of Scottish Independence, however the cause of Independence lost for a second time 51-49. After the election, both Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and Labour Party (and Opposition Leader) Jeremy Corbyn announced they were standing down. Corbyn's Labour backing the referendum had led to a massive drop in his popularity (even more so than usual, anyways). Warren also took a hit, as her judgment in foreign policy was called into question.

The third crisis revolved around a lawsuit that had been filed several years earlier by the U.S women's national soccer (football) team seeking equal pay. Warren announced that until the women paid equally to the men, the US Soccer Federation would receive no federal funding. In response, FIFA, which had previously awarded the 2026 World Cup to the United States,Canada and Mexico, removed the United States from the bid. Canada also withdrew, citing the difficulty of the situation of hosting with Mexico, and Mexico was now hosting the 2026 World Cup alone. In addition, the United States was barred from qualification from the 2022 World Cup, held in Qatar for the same political meddling. Warren lambasted FIFA, and called Gianni Infantino, the President of FIFA, a "hater of women."

[NewYorkExpress]

Early Warren Legislative Program

Like Barack Obama before her, President Warren decided her first political legislative move would be to pass a health care plan. Introduced in the House by Alexandria Ocasia-Cortez and in the Senate the plan essentially provided universal health care in a system similar to the United Kingdom's National Health Service. While the plan, backed by Warren passed the House (221-213), it ran into a firewall of opposition in the Senate. While Majority Leader Schumer planned to eliminate the fillibuster, he couldn't even convince a majority of his own caucus, let alone any Republicans, and as a result three Senators (Rand Paul,Mike Lee and Rick Scott) filibustered the legislation for eighteen hours, while the Republicans stood united against the legislation. With Schumer unable to successfully kill the filibuster, (cloture motions failed three times), he declared the bill dead on April 1, 2021, as the Senate prepared to take up the first of the three Supreme Court appointments Warren had made.


Massachusetts Senate, Special Election

As promised, interim Senator Lawrence Summers was not running in the special election, which was held on Tuesday, March 23, 2021. Despite speculation that Joe Kennedy III would run in the special election, he chose not to run. Democrats instead nominated Auditor Suzanne Bump. On the Republican side, Governor Baker actually intended to run in this race. However, he'd faced a firestorm of criticism for appointing Summers, a Democrat, instead another Republican (or himself). Lieutenant Governor Karen Politio was also speculated as a candidate, but she was still licking her wounds from the loss in the 2020 General Election (and was mad at Baker for not appointing her, and not believing he could win the seat in her own right.) The Republican Nominee ended up being Worcester County Sheriff Lewis Evangeildis. With Health Care as the defining issue, the race drew comparisons to the 2009 Special Election to replace Ted Kennedy. While Warren was still personally popular in Massachusetts, there was a significant gap between that and support for universal health care. Polls in the final weeks of the race ranged from 48-40 Bump (PPP) to a 45-45 dead heat (Suffolk University), to a 47-43 lead for Evangelidis (Rassmussen). Ultimately, the only comparison to 2009 was just how uncomfortably close the race was for Democrats, as Bump defeated Evangeilidis 50.1-48.2.

[NewYorkExpress]

Spring/Summer 2021

The big news through most of the Spring and Summer, in addition to the successful confirmations of three Supreme Court Justices, was the allegations of sexual assault against Senator Justin Fairfax by two different women dating back to 2000 and 2004 respectively. Making matters worse for him, Amy Klobuchar accused him of smacking her derriere during a debate on the nomination for EPA Administrator Bill Nye on January 5, 2021. Despite the entire Virginia political scene, plus the entire Democratic Caucus in the Senate calling for Fairfax, he refused to resign. On July 19, 2021, Warren called for Fairfax to resign, and if he didn't, for the Senate to begin expulsion proceedings, a move blasted by Fairfax as "lynching an innocent black man". Chuck Schumer indicated the Senate would not take up expulsion proceedings against Fairfax, not because he didn't believe the accusers, but because no charges had been filed (though he did encourage Klobuchar to press criminal charges against Fairfax for sexual assault).

In what would be Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer and Clarence Thomas's final case on the Supreme Court, the court ruled by a 5-4 margin in Stewart v. Prince William County Republican Party that Political Parties had the right to set whatever nominating method they chose, after Corey  Stewart, who had attempted to run for Prince William's Commonwealth's Attorney, only to defeated at the Party Nominating Convention by another candidate. Stewart had sued in both State and Federal Court to get on the ballot, but quickly dropped the lawsuit after after a Federal Judge (John A. Gibney Jr), ruled that there was a Federal issue at play, the right of a political entity to choose the method of nominating a candidate. He was reversed at the Fourth Circuit, before the Supreme Court took the case up and made a ruling as the final ruling of the 2020-2021 court session. The 5-4 ruling broke down on party lines (with Thomas and Roberts each writing separate majority opinions), while the minority opinion, held by the "liberal" wing of the court was that primaries were the only constitutional method a political party had of nominating a candidate (with Ginsburg writing the opinion for the minority).

While the economy remained in decent shape, Warren's popularity was steadily declining, as the 2021 elections approached, especially with redistricting being a volatile issue in many states. Her attempt to  add universal health care, her reversing a 5-4 conservative majority into a 5-4 progressive majority and a relatively quiet foreign policy (Other than completely embarrassing herself on Scottish Independence, Warren had largely let Secretary of State Obama handle foreign policy.). As such her approval ratings had declined from a high of 60-31 on Inauguration Day, to 47-47 as the 2021 off-year elections approached.

2021 Off-Year Elections

A trio of elections served as barometers for how the Warren Administration was doing, and how Democrats would do in 2022. One election was local, the other two were statewide.

Mayor, New York City

Bill De Blasio was term-limited, and his popularity had taken a tumble following a Presidential bid that had gone nowhere, plus open lobbying to be in President Warren's cabinet. New York was an overwhelmingly Democratic city, and the size of the field was expected to reflect that. One thing to note was that a runoff would take place if no one got at least forty percent of the vote. With New York due to lose at least House one seat in redistricting, and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez's seat commonly speculated as a possible Mayoral candidate. However Ocasio-Cortez quickly declined to run, as did fellow Congressman Hakeem Jeffries. However, that didn't stop a deep and talented Democratic field from developing. The candidates were former US OMB Director and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan, CEO of Phipps Neighborhoods (a local not-for-profit) Dianne Morales, Retired Brigadier General Loree Sutton, former New York City Councilwoman Melissa Mark-Viverto, activist Maya Wiley, City Councilman Peter Koo, Public Defender Tiffany Caban (who had narrowly lost the race for Queens District Attorney in 2019) and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. Early polling of the primary showed the race was between Donovan and Adams, with Mark-Viverto in striking distance. However, that changed in June of 2021, when the New York Times published a detailed dive into Mark-Viverto's fundraising which showed that 70% of the money she'd taken in ($4,976,000 of $7,108,571.43) was raised from members of Boricua Popular Army, a Puerto Rican terrorist group. Overnight her support collapsed, and while she remained in the race, her endorsers deserted her, and her fundraising dried up. Polls showed her support being split between Caban and Adams. Ultimately, the collapse in Mark-Viverto's support and accompanying movement of voters was enough to give Adams enough to avoid a runoff in the primary, as he won with 41.1% of the vote, to 29.9% for Donovan, 13% for Caban, 5% for Sutton, 5% for Koo, 2.7% for Mark-Viverto, 1.7% for Morales and and 1.6% for Wiley.

On the Republican side, there was also a contested primary, albeit much smaller. Running was State Senator Simcha Felder (A Democrat, he had recieved a Wilson Pakula to run in the election), founder and CEO of the Guardian Angels (and radio Talk Show host) Curtis Silwa and New York City Councilman Eric Ulrich. Unlike the Working Familes Party, which had considered endorsing Caban, before endorsing Adams in a loud meeting (though that had more to do with the race for Public Advocate, where they were unable to make an endorsement after several ballots), though they professed happiness with all of their choices, the influential Conservative Party wasn't particularly thrilled with any of their choices. They didn't think Silwa would get within 20 points of the Democratic nominee, Felder was a former Democrat, and Ulrich had previously endorsed the very progressive Mark-Viverto for City Council Speaker. After a tense meeting, they ultimately chose to make no endorsement for Mayor, and instead backed a former staffer of Michael Grimm's instead, who did not seriously campaign (Grimm, for his part, was the Republican nominee for Public Advocate). Many thought with a depressed turnout, the primary would go down to the wire, and possibly end in a a runoff, although it was hard to predict who would be in the runoff. However, Silwa, who was leading in the polls, ran an ad in late July that attacked Felder with blatant Jewish stereotypes, including calling the narrator in the ad calling Felder a "World Banker" complete with juxtaposition of Felder and the Goblins from the Harry Potter franchise, which not only got condemnation from Jewish groups, Benjamin Netanyahu and most New York politicians, but also saw the author of the Harry Potter series, Joanne "J.K" Rowling file a lawsuit against Silwa's campaign for copyright infringement. Felder gained a bounce in the polls (and even got a sympathy bounce in general election polls), while Silwa's support collapsed. Felder won the primary with 59% of the vote to 32% for Ulrich and 9% for Silwa.

In the General Election Felder made a conscious effort to compare himself to the last New York Mayor to be elected as a Republican, Michael Bloomberg. Unfortunately for him, Bloomberg chose to remain neutral in the race (he didn't particularly care for either candidate much.) Ultimately, money made the difference here, as Adams outraised Felder in what was otherwise a closer than usual race for Mayor of New York City, and won 59-40.3

New Jersey Governor

Phil Murphy would have been up for a second term in 2021, and his popularity, while slipping slightly, was still good. However, President Warren chose to appoint Murphy as Ambassador to Ireland in February of 2021, a position that he would be confirmed for by the U.S Senate on St. Patrick's Day by a 64-34 margin. This left Lieutenant Governor Sheila Oliver as the incumbent Governor, and she quickly chose to run for a full term. Despite speculation that she would face a primary challenge, she avoided one and was able to choose a running mate, who because the office was vacant would become Lieutenant Governor immediately (or so she argued. The truth was Oliver didn't want to have someone serving as Lieutenant Governor for only eleven months if she won). She chose former Congressman Rush Holt.

Republicans meanwhile had a contested primary between former State Assemblyman Jack Ciatterelli (who had run for Governor in 2017 and lost in the primary to Kim Guagdano), former Congressman Tom McArthur (who had lost to Andy Kim in 2018, and almost immediately jumped into this race) and former State Assemblywoman Alison Littell McHose, who entered the race on the same day as the filing deadline. The primary was largely civil, even if Ciatterelli, who was leading generally refused to debate. On Primary day, Ciatterelli won with 55% of the vote to 29% for McArthur and 16% for Littell McHose.

Ciatterelli's next focus was picking a running mate, and one week after securing the nomination, he made his choice, selecting Celegene Executive Chairman and 2018 Senate nominee (against Bob Menendez, who was now in prison for bribing a juror in a previous corruption trial) Bob Hugin.

The general election was widely considered a snoozer, with focus largely on Warren, but the most interesting thing happened at a debate between the Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidates at the Borgata, Hugin called for a ban on sports betting and casino gambling in New Jersey stating that they were "a waste of money". This was widely believed to have cost the Republican ticket the election, as the Oliver/Holt ticket defeated the Ciatterelli/Hugin ticket 50-48.9.

Republicans, however, gained nine seats in the New Jersey General Assembly, to break a veto-proof majority, and also gained one seat in the State Senate.

Virginia, Governor

With controversial Governor Ralph Northam term-limited, and President Warren's popularity on the decline in Virginia, many in Virginia politics braced for a politically charged Gubernatorial election.

On the Democratic side, several candidates declared, some of them, before the 2020 elections were even done. They were, Attorney General Mark Herring, State Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy, former Senator Mark Warner (who had served as a single term as Governor in the early to mid 2000's), former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (who had defeated Dave Brat in 2018, before losing to Eric Cantor in 2020), and former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (defeated Scott Taylor in 2018, lost to Jason Miyares in 2020). This was a deep and talented Democratic field, and early on, it was everyone against Warner, as his moderate record as Governor, and his moderate voting record as a Senator made him disliked by the progressive base. As Warner fell, the base, and Carroll Foy (who by this point had won the endorsement of Daily Kos) turned on Herring, citing his past wearing of blackface, and said he was "unfit to serve the people of Virginia". Carroll Foy won the primary with 51% of the vote, to 25% for Spanberger, 14% for Luria, 11% for Warner and 6% for Herring. For Warner and Herring, who had raised the most money in the primary (Warner had raised $14,089,576, while Herring had raised $9,987,460), it was a disappointing outcome at best.

Republicans also had a contested primary, between State Senator Amanda Chase, 2018 Congressional nominee Denver Riggleman (he had lost to Leslie Cockburn), Founder of New Media Strategies and 2013, Pete Snyder, 2012 Senate candidate Jamie Radtke and former Congressman Bob Goodlatte. Goodlatte, who had retired in 2018 was considered the heavy favorite, especially after Riggleman came under fire for hosting a same-sex wedding between two of his friends, but conservative groups liked Chase, and she picked up the endorsements of the Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity. However, her viewpoints were far beyond what Republicans needed to win the seat, and Goodlatte who easily outraised her (and everyone else), carpet-bombed her with negative ads. In the primary, Goodlatte would win, with 57% of the vote, to 19% for Chase, 10% for Snyder, 9% for Riggleman and 5% for Radkte.

The General Election was seen as competitive, as with Warren's popularity declining (an election day poll by the Washington Post had her at 41-49 in Virginia), Carroll-Foy's progressivism, and Goodlatte making no mistakes at all in his campaign. Despite Carroll-Foy's, largely successful attempts to tie him with Trump (who by this point had fled to Russia to avoid what Attorney General Bharara said likely would have been treason charges), voters showed they cared about what was best for Virginia, and more about the current President than Trump, an ominous omen for Warren in 2022, and as she headed closer to reelection. Goodlatte defeated Carroll-Foy 49.9-47.8, for the Republicans lone top ballot victory (and the lone marquee top ballot race to change hands in 2021.)

Meanwhile, State Delegate Marcia Price held the office of Lieutenant Governor for Democrats, while State Senator Lynwood Lewis won the Attorney General's office for another hold for Democrats.

In the Virginia House of Delegates, Republicans won five seats, causing a 50-50 split in the chamber.

[NewYorkExpress]

North Dakota Senate Special Election

This was technically the second special election to replace Heidi Heitkamp after she'd been elected Governor, as the first had been won largely unopposed by a staffer from her 2018 Senate campaign. He chose to resign in Late August 2021, so he could go back to school at North Dakota State University.

This would be the second special election in a year, and with Warren's popularity, already unpopular in North Dakota at the time of the first special, on a dramatic downswing (according to a poll from Garin-Hart-Yang Warren had 30-59 approval ratings as of October 31 in North Dakota), most experts favored the Republicans.

Republicans nominated former Lieutenant Governor Brent Sanford, while Democrats nominated former United States Attorney for the District of North Dakota Tim Purdon. While Democrats had skated by in the special election immediately preceding this one, they weren't so lucky here, as Warren was unpopular, and Governor Heitkamp's popularity was declining, largely thanks to a program she put in place that expanded both Medicaid and SNAP eligibility in North Dakota, something that was unpopular among North Dakota residents. As a result, Sanford won 61-39, for a gain for Republicans.

The final tally for Republicans in 2021 off-year elections, was a gain in the Gubernatorial Election in Virginia, and a pickup of North Dakota's Senate seat,plus several state legislative seats in both Virginia and New Jersey.

[NewYorkExpress]

The end of 2021, and most of 2022, was largely quiet for Warren in terms of Domestic policy news, as Democrats in Congress largely resisted anything that would imperil their hold on the United States Senate.

This was not the case necessarily in Foreign Policy.

The first big development came in December of 2021, when Queen Elizabeth II abdicated at 95 years old, having ruled the United Kingdom almost seventy years. She cited a desire to see her son take up the throne before he died (apparently she'd watched a Dr. Who episode that said she was immortal, because she liberally quoted the episode in question in her statement to the media). Charles would take the regnal name Charles III (despite some speculation that he'd choose a different name).

At the beginning of February, 2022 the election of 2022 was officially scheduled. The date of the Election would be Tuesday, May 3, 2022. Apparently, citing the new monarch, a longer period than usual had been allowed for the election. Labour was fine with that, as they had a new leader in Parliament in Yvette Cooper, who had replaced Jeremy Corbyn after the defeat of the second Scottish Independence Referendum in February 2021. The United Kingdom had also just left the European Union officially, and dealing with that ultimately was the main focus of everyone's campaign.

Most experts predicted that the Tories would win a narrow majority or that there would be a hung parliament, despite Cooper being impressive in campaign stops and televised debates.

Ultimately, Labour won the most seats with 311, followed by the Conservatives with 310, the Liberal Democrats with 15, SNP with 6, Plaid Cymru with 2, the DUP with 2, Sinn Fein with 2, UKIP with 2, the Greens with 2.

After seven days of Negotiation, a coalition between Labour, and the Liberal Democrats led by Jo Swinson developed. While Labour would get the Prime Minister's spot, Swinson would become Chancellor of the Exchequer, and other Liberal Democrat MP's would become Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (this was expected to be an important office in the immediate future, as England was bidding for the 2030 FIFA World Cup) and Minister Without Portfolio. In addition, several Liberal Democrat priorities that were dropped or ignored during the Cameron-Clegg coalition government would be given focus here.

The only other major news story in 2022 that had any impact on Americans was a recession, beginning in Europe that was triggered by Brexit, that had spread across the Atlantic by Election Day. While Warren's handling of the economic crisis was seen as somewhat better than George W. Bush almost fifteen years earlier, her solution of raising taxes on the rich to 100% to raise revenue was rejected by both houses of Congress, and failed to do anything to address unemployment, which, after dropping all the way to 1.9% in July of 2021, had ticked back up to 4.9% by Election Day 2022. As a result, Warren's approval ratings continued to slide.

The third piece of news was that the 2024 Presidential got it's first serious contender in January of 2022, almost two years out from the 2024 Iowa Caucuses, when former Vice President Mike Pence announced he was forming an exploratory committee for President. Pence's exploratory committee progressed to a full blown candidacy in August of 2022, as polled showed him consistently in the top three among Republicans (granted, the candidates he faced varied). In addition to that, he'd also won an early straw poll in August 2022 (Republicans had opted to bring back the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames, but that wouldn't be until 2023, after Kim Reynolds said she favored bringing the straw poll back...she also said she favored having a similar straw poll for Democrats, but the Iowa Democratic Party indicated that they would not have a straw poll with an incumbent Democrat likely running for reelection, though Warren had made no such announcement, and in any event indicated they wanted their straw poll at the University of Iowa, in Iowa City).

[NewYorkExpress]

2022 Midterm Elections

Republicans were expected to hold their ground in the Senate and quite possibly pick off a seat or two, gain several gubernatorial seats, and take back the House of Representatives, though the number of seats gained was expected to be diminished somewhat by redistricting.

Indiana

Senate

Donald Trump had narrowly won Indiana in 2020, and Democrats had picked up the Governor's mansion behind a strong campaign from Pete Buttigeig. However, outside of Buttigeig, they had no truly superstar candidates to face Todd Young, and in any event, President Warren's popularity had drastically declined. Their nominee, who entered the race shortly before the filing deadline largely because no other Democrat had, was former Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson. Peterson probably would have been a strong candidate had he run almost two decades ago, but he'd been out of elected office since losing in 2007, and Young largely ignored him on the campaign trail. It didn't really help that the national climate was against Peterson as well. Young easily won 62-37.

House of Representatives

Indiana did not lose a seat in redistricting, and most incumbents were helped by the redistricting plan. Even so, there were a couple of competitive battles, in way or another.

First Congressional District

This was a new Congressional District, formed out of parts of Congressional Districts 1, 4 and 8, and was a mostly rural district albeit with a decent chunk of Gary (though Pete Visclosky's home was just outside the district).This district was designed for either a Gary or an Evansville based politician, and was considered relatively Republican. Democrats complained that the District violated the Voting Rights Act, but neither the Justice Department nor the U.S Supreme Court took it up in time for the election (and in any event, almost all of the African American Precincts in Gary had stayed in the Second Congressional District). This was considered, while Republican, a seat Democrats could win in the right year. This wasn't that year, as Evansville City Councilman Ron Beane won the seat, despite only part of Evansville being in the district (about 60% of the city was in the district. The rest, including Larry Buschon's home, was in the Eighth District) defeating retired Major League Baseball Pitcher Dan Plesac, 59-41, for what technically was a Republican hold.

Second Congressional District

John Voorde had blown out Jackie Walorski in 2020. However, redistricting, while keeping South Bend in his district, also added Gary, Indiana (though it did not include the city itself), while removing the southern territory. This set up a potential primary with Pete Visclosky, who already represented the area since first winning his seat in 1984. However, Visclosky chose to retire, and Voorde instead faced a primary challenge. from Gary Mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson (who had narrowly avoided a primary challenge of her own in 2019). This district had been made significantly more Democratic, so both sides knew that winning the primary would be tantamount to election. This was district that was plurality African American (coming out to just shy of 50% of the population of eligible voters). Voorde attacked Freeman-Wilson over a prior scandal during the eleven months in 2000 that she'd spent as Indiana Attorney General, but it didn't really affect Freeman-Wilson, who hit Voorde for statements he'd made on the campaign trail supporting new trade deals with the United Kingdom and European Union (both of which Warren was unwilling to negotiate). Freeman-Wilson defeated Voorde in the primary 55-44. In the general, Republicans nominated a 2018 candidate in the old First District, Roseann Ivanovich, a clear sign they were punting on the seat. Freeman-Wilson defeated Ivanovich 66-33.

Fourth Congressional District

After two terms, Greg Baird elected to retire. Republicans were expected to easily hold this seat, as a crowded primary developed. Two candidates stood out from the field. They were Kokomo Mayor Tyler Moore, who had been elected in 2019, and Montgomery County Assessor Sherri Bentley. Both were newcomers to the field of high-stakes politics, but Moore pulled a consistent monetary lead. Moore also won the primary over Bentley 31-19, with nine other candidates splitting 50%.. This district, which lost it's it's western fringe, and gained back a few of the northern Indianapolis Suburbs it had lost, was not considered winnable for Democrats. Still they, nominated 2018 candidate for the old Fourth District Tobi Beck, who promptly lost 71-12, with the Libertarian nominee Rupert Boneham, who had been their nominee for Governor in 2012 (getting 3.95%) and in 2020 (getting 2.94%), earning an impressive 14% of the vote, relegating Beck to third place.

Fifth Congressional District

This was probably another District with a realistic chance to flip in a Democratic wave. It included Indianapolis's Eastern and Northeastern suburbs, as well as some of it's Northern suburbs, and most of the area between South Bend and Indianapolis (though some of the area immediately south of South Bend remained in the Second Congressional District). For the second straight cycle, Democrats targeted the seat, though Warren's unpopularity meant this was a longshot. They did, however, see James Brainerd as a weak incumbent, however. Their candidate was former Butler Basketball Guard Bruce Horan. Horan wasn't the right fit for the district, and Warren's popularity, while it hadn't reached the nadirs Trump's had, was not as strong as it had been in 2020. Brainerd would win 58-41, for a key Republican Hold.

Sixth Congressional District

The Sixth District was largely unchanged by redistricting. However, that didn't stop things from being interesting, as Greg Pence announced that with his brother Mike now running for President, he would retire from his Congressional seat, to serve as his full-time campaign manager. Once again, there was a crowded Republican Primary to replace him. Three candidates attracted significant attention to replace him. They were Muncie Mayor Dan Ridenour, State Representative Sean Eberhart and Jay County Councilman Faron Parr. Ridenour and Eberhart attracted the most money and attention from the local media,but ultimately, it was the NRCC getting involved and endorsing Ridenour that put the race to bed, as he won the primary with 39% of the vote, to 24% for Eberhart and 22% with three other candidates splitting the remaining 15%. This still was not a seat Democrats could win, and they ultimately defeated the 2016 nominee for a State House of Representative Seat (District 55) Mimi Pruett 70-29.

Eighth Congressional District

The Eighth Congressional District had lost most of the west side of Indiana, but it maintained Evansville, and picked up the Southern suburbs of Indianapolis from the Ninth Congressional District, making this the third District Democrats could filp in a wave. As it was, National Democrats, noting the gains they made in redistricting, targeted Larry Buschon. Unfortunately, this was not the political climate to be facing Buschon in, and their nominee was former State Representative Trent Van Haaften, who had faced Buschon in 2010, showing a major recruiting hole for Democrats. Buschon started out in a close race, but gradually pulled away, as he dominated the airwaves, en route to a 59-41 victory.

Ninth Congressional District

This District had lost the southern suburbs of Indianapolis to the eighth district, making the district significantly more Republican. It was widely expected that the seat would flip in 2020, but that didn't happen, and it seemed even more likely that it would in 2022.

Liz Watson had defeated Trey Hollingsworth in 2018, then rode a closer than expected race in the district to win in 2020. Republicans had a crowded primary, but two people stood out. They were State Representative Jeff Ellington and Jeffersonville City Councilman Joe Paris. Again, the NRCC's endorsement proved to be the difference, as they endorsed Ellington shortly before the primary, and he won it 43-31, with five other candidates splitting 12% of the vote.

In the general election, Watson quickly fell behind Ellington in the polls, and Warren's decline in popularity here (an exit poll sponsored by WAVE, Louisville Kentucky's NBC affiliate, had Warren at 39-50 approval in the district, while an exit poll sponsored by WRTY, Indianapolis's ABC affiliate had Warren at 41-48 approval). Ellington defeated Watson 54-44, for a Republican pickup, their first of the night.