November 2020 and beyond, election madness

[Cold War Liberal]

Love this so far!

The map so far, for those interested:

Warren/Cortez Masto: 77 Electoral Votes
Trump/Pence: 39 Electoral Votes
Not yet called: 422

[Politician]

How does Warren do so well in New Hampshire while barely winning Pennsylvania?

[libertpaulian]

How does Warren do so well in New Hampshire while barely winning Pennsylvania?

Neighboring state advantage.  Plus, I imagine Grafton County turnout is insane.

[NewYorkExpress]

How does Warren do so well in New Hampshire while barely winning Pennsylvania?

Neighboring state advantage.  Plus, I imagine Grafton County turnout is insane.

Neighboring State advantage was the primary reason.

Warren won every county, though she only won Rockingham and Belknap by plurality margins.

[NewYorkExpress]

West Virginia

President

West Virginia was one of only a few states where President Trump was expected to improve on his 2016 performance, where he'd won with 68 and a half% of the vote (to Hillary Clinton's just under 26 and a half percent of the vote). Warren, despite being a populist, was considered even more left wing than Clinton on the environment (which hurt her somewhat in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio as well), and despite coal jobs generally not coming back, Trump was still broadly popular here, sporting an approval rating of 68-29 according to Gravis. Needless to say, Trump crushed Warren here, 71-25, carrying every county by at least fifteen points.

Governor

Jim Justice, despite switching from the Republicans to the Democrats, back to the Republicans, was a popular elected official, and most Democrats were nervous about taking him on, especially since President Trump was going to carry the state by an overwhelming margin. Democrats nominated former Senator Carte Goodwin, who ran a solid, and valiant campaign, but Justice made few mistakes, and was buoyed by Trumps commanding margin atop the ballot. Justice emerged with the win 59-39.

Senate

Shelley Moore Capito was expected to glide to reelection, if she avoided a primary, which she did. It didn't really matter who the Democrats nominated, as both Trump and Justice would win by big margins. The Democrats ultimately put up former Governor Earl Ray Tomblin, who was expected to at least make Moore Capito sweat a little, but like Natalie Tennant in 2014, the lean of the state proved to be a barrier towards making the race competitive, as Moore Capito won 60-38.98.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Alex Mooney had won reelection easily over Talley Sergent in 2018, but he was growing restless, and he chose to run for Treasurer of West Virginia instead (a position he was only only somewhat qualified for, having served on various financial committees in the House of Representatives, but it was enough to win the Republican Primary, and defeat incumbent Treasurer John Purdue in the General Election). While Republicans had a strong candidate in State Auditor John McCuskey, Democrats nominated former Delegate Mark Hunt, who was best known for spending fifty thousand dollars in an attempt to clone his deceased son. Needless to say McCuskey won 67-24, as the Mountain Party's nominee earned 7.5%.

Third Congressional District

Carol Miller had defeated Richard Ojeda in a surprisingly close race in an overwhelmingly Republican seat in 2018. However, Democrats saw the close margin as a chance to try again, and they nominated what they perceived as a stronger candidate in former Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, who had lost reelection in 2016, and gotten blown out by Shelly Moore Capito in 2014. While Tennant put up a good fight, and clearly did better than she did against Moore Capito, the tide against Democrats was simply too strong for her to win, as Miller won 52-46, running far behind Trump, Justice and Moore Capito, and (to some anyway) proving she was a weak incumbent.

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama

President

Donald Trump had won Alabama easily in 2016, just like every Republican nominee since 1976 had, and no one doubted that this would happen again. Making matters worse for Warren, she didn't win the primary here either, finishing second to Kamala Harris (with Cory Booker, who had just left the race, finishing just behind her in third). Neither campaign did much here, as Trump didn't need to, and Warren had much better opportunities to expand the map, leaving Trump with a 60.04-38.93 victory.

Senate

Doug Jones was widely expected to retire, rather than run for a full term, but DSCC chair Claire McCaskill convinced him to run for reelection. Republicans, meanwhile had a contested primary between Congressman Mo Brooks, Congressman Robert Aderholt and Congresswoman Martha Roby. Roby was relatively disliked by the base, and knew she'd have to drive up both Brooks and Aderholt's negatives, and quickly got into an ad war with both of them, while Brooks, who had previous experience running a statewide race (he'd finished third in the 2017 special election), and used that experience to jump out to an early lead. Aderholt, buffeted from both sides, attacked by Roby as too right wing (along with Brooks), and attacked by Brooks for voting in favor of impeaching Mike Pence (which had been introduced in the House by Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez as a blatant attempt to install Nancy Pelosi as President...Ocasio-Cortez even told reporters that she assumed the Senate would refuse to confirm a Trump nominee to replace Pence, then Trump himself would be impeached and removed from office, thus allowing Pelosi to succeed to the Presidency, but Ocasio-Cortez's scheme failed in the House). Most assumed with three relatively strong candidates, the race would proceed to a runoff, however, what the beltway insiders did not count on, was the total collapse of both Aderholt and, to a lesser extent Roby, leading to Brooks winning the primary with 61% of the vote to 22% for Roby and 17% for Aderholt.

The General Election was essentially a tossup for most of the summer, but the reality was that with Trump winning the state by such an overwhelming margin, Jones was almost certainly going to go down to Brooks. And that he did, as Brooks gave Republicans their first Senate gain, 53-45.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

While Martha Roby had defeated Tabitha Isner in 2018, she was vacating this seat to run for the Senate (and avoid another Primary challenge, not that it worked). Republicans nominated former State Representative Barry Moore, who had finished third in the primary for this seat in 2018. Democrats, meanwhile nominated 2014 nominee Erick Wright, but it was never seriously considered in play, as Moore defeated Wright 65-34.

Fourth Congressional District

Robert Aderholt had crushed Lee Auman in 2018, but he was vacating this seat to run for the Senate. Republicans nominated Muscle Shoals City Councilman Chris Hall, while Democrats tapped 2018 nominee Lee Auman. Once again, the overwhelming lean of the district meant an easy win for the Republican, in this case, Hall, who dominated en route to a 61-38.4 victory.

Fifth Congressional District

Mo Brooks had flattened Peter Joffrion in 2018, but he was now on a successful bid for the Senate. Republicans knew they would have no problems keeping his Senate seat, they just needed the right candidate. They couldn't get a top tier candidate, and ultimately settled for Athens City Councliman (in fact,he was the Council President) Joseph Cannon. Democrats meanwhile nominated 2012 nominee Charlie Holley. This also wasn't a close race, as Cannon shot down Holley 62-36.8.

[NewYorkExpress]

Rhode Island

Despite Allan Fung's election as Governor in 2018, no one really thought Rhode Island would be competitive, and that feeling intensified, when Fung endorsed Kasich ahead of the New Hampshire Primary. Warren was able to use her neighboring state advantage to win easily, 62-36.66.

Senate

Jack Reed was widely considered to be heavy favorite for reelection, but Allan Fung's victory in 2018 gave local Republicans hope. Their nominee was State Representative Brian Newberry. Despite an earnest effort from both Newberry and Fung, Reed was able to win a victory to what he said would be his final term by the smallest margin of his career since his original election to the House of Representatives in 1990, this time winning 61-38.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

David Cicilline once again faced a primary challenge, largely based on his prior record as Mayor of Providence, as the city had almost come close to bankruptcy during and shortly after his tenure. His challenger was State Senator Gayle Goldin, who hammered Cicilline on every one of these issues. Despite efforts from LBGTQ groups to protect Cicilline, Goldin, who ran a campaign on similar themes to the incumbent defeated him in the primary 50-49.89.  Republicans had no luck finding a nominee, and ultimately nominated 2014 nominee Commick Lynch. Lynch ran a better campaign than in 2014, but he was expecting to face Cicilline, and as a result what was originally expected to be somewhat close, ended up being a 59-38.98 victory for Goldin.

Second Congressional District

James Langevin was speculated as a possible candidate for Governor in 2022, but first he had to win reelection. This was a Democratic leaning district, but Republicans could win it with the right candidate, and in the right year. Their nominee, State Representative Antonio Giarusso, was that candidate, but 2020 was not that year. Langevin defeated Giarusso 56-41.

[NewYorkExpress]

Massachusetts

President

As this was Warren's home state, and a normally Democratic state in Presidential Elections, Trump had little hope of winning the state. Making matters worse Governor Charlie Baker first endorsed Kasich, then did not endorse anyone in November, becoming one of the few Republican statewide officeholders to decline to endorse Trump in the general election. Warren was an overwhelming favorite, and with her already representing the state (and doing it well, her approval ratings in Massachusetts were 66-25 in a Boston Globe poll conducted in late October), she rolled to a dominating 71-27.2 victory. This was another of Ajamu Baraka's best states, as he earned 1.178% of the vote.

Senate

Ed Markey was up for a second term, but he was not particularly willing to run for reelection, and behind the scenes lobbying Warren for a cabinet appointment (he wanted Secretary of Energy or EPA Administrator), so he announced in the autumn of 2019 that he would not run again. As a result this was an open seat.

For Republicans, the first choice was Governor Charlie Baker, but he declined to run, feeling he would not win a Senate race in Massachusetts. Their second choice, Mitt Romney was already a Senator in Utah. Ultimately, the brave Republican who took a chance was Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito.

Democrats meanwhile,had a contested primary between former Governor Deval Patrick, Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley, Congressman Stephen Lynch and former Congressman Marty Meehan. While many thought Patrick would win, Pressley used many of the same tactics she'd used to win her House in 2018 to win this primary as well, earning 31% of the vote, to 26% for Patrick, 24% for Lynch and 17.9% for Meehan.

Polito certainly could have made this interesting in any other year, but this was a year Warren was carrying Massachusetts at the top of the ticket by an insane margin.  As such, Pressley defeated Polito 66-33.5.

House of Representatives

Seventh Congressional District

Ayanna Pressley had pulled off a shock victory in 2018, and now she'd run for and done the same to get elected to the Senate. While most expected a crowded primary to replace Pressley, the field quickly cleared for Boston City Councilwoman Andrea Campbell. Republicans did not nominate a candidate here.

Eighth Congressional District

Stephen Lynch had chosen to mount an unsuccessful bid for a Senate seat, and left this seat open. Democrats had a contested primary, but only one candidate had experience in elected office, and that was former State Senator Linda Dorcena Ferry, who beat nine others with 51% of the vote. Republicans nominated 2016 and 2018 nominee William Burke, but he again lost 68-31.

[NewYorkExpress]

Maryland

President

Elizabeth Warren's status as the favorite in Maryland was never really in doubt, despite her narrow loss in the primary to Kamala Harris. Trump, meanwhile had crushed Kasich here, but his approvals were poor, and making matters worse, Larry Hogan, the Governor of Maryland, remained neutral during the primary, and later admitted to voting for Kasich and writing his own name in on the general election ballot in early December, in an interview with the Baltimore Sun. Warren ultimately won 59-39.9.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Democrats had foolishly targeted Andy Harris in 2018, but Harris had crushed Jesse Colvin that year. However, despite national Democrats having no interest in the seat this year, local Democrats found a strong candidate in State Senator James Mathias Jr, who had narrowly survived reelection in 2018 himself. While it was a Democratic year nationally, Harris was just in just too Republican a district to lose, as he defeated Mathias 49.92-48.97.

Second Congressional District

Dutch Ruppersberger had usually won reelection, but he decided not to run for reelection in 2020, ostensibly to spend more time with his family. Democrats quickly found their nominee in former Howard County Executive Kenneth Ullman (who admittedly, did not live inside the district), while Republicans nominated former State Representative Victoria Schade, who had not run for office since 1998. Schade's rust proved to be a problem, as Ullman emerged with a 60-38 victory.

Fifth Congressional District

Steny Hoyer was well aware that the Democratic House leadership was unpopular with progressives, and as such he announced he would retire in the Autumn of 2019. Democrats nominated former Attorney General Doug Gansler, while Republicans tapped former State Delegate (and 2012 nominee) Tony O'Donnell. Gansler easily defeated O'Donnell 61-38.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ohio

Ohio continued it's tradition of being a battleground state in 2018, as following President Trump's easy win in 2016, Sherrod Brown crushed Jim Renacci in the Senate race, and Richard Cordray narrowly defeated Mike DeWine in the Gubernatorial race. As such both campaigns treated Ohio as a true battleground, and a decisive bellwether, which it was, as the Buckeye State had voted for the winner of every Presidential Election since 1964, and both candidates were determined for that streak to continue for them. Between Trump, Pence, Warren and Cortez Masto, there was a total of two hundred seventeen visits to the Buckeye State, not including the first Presidential Debate, which was held at Kent State University. Warren did well in the debate, while Trump did well except for one notable gaffe, when he responded to a question in the lightning round about who his most trusted adviser was by saying he didn't "take advice from anyone", and then going on to call both Attorney General Jeff Sessions and U.N Ambassador Nikki Haley "useful idiots".

Warren ended up winning Ohio 49.99-49.08, but whether the Buckeye State would be a Bellwether State would be left undecided for quite some time.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Aftab Pureval had stunned Steve Chabot in 2018, and while speculation focused on a Chabot rematch, he declined to run, instead opting to run for Mayor of Cincinnati in 2021 to replace the term-limited John Cranley. Republicans instead nominated Springdale City Councilman Jeffrey Anderson. Anderson wasn't a particularly great candidate, and never really showed the enthusiasm for running the race. As such, Pureval held the seat 50-49.

Fourth Congressional District

Following a surprising a close win, and an embarrassing loss in the race for Minority Leader in the House to Steve Scalise and Kevin McCarthy, and a sexual misconduct scandal from his days as an assistant wrestling coach at Ohio State still weighing him down, Jim Jordan chose not to run for reelection. Republicans quickly found a quality candidate in State Representative Mark Romanchuk, while Democrats nominated 2018 candidate Cody James Slatzer-Rose. Romanchuk won easily 68-31.

Tenth Congressional District

Mike Turner had comfortably won reelection in 2018, but in 2020, he faced a challenge from Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley that was much tougher. Whaley ran a perfect campaign, and Turner showed rust, not running any ads until there were two weeks left in the campaign, leading to a 54-45.3 victory for Whaley and a third gain for Democrats (against eight for Republicans).

[Cold War Liberal]

Go Warren and Cortez Masto!!!

[NewYorkExpress]

Missouri

President

While President Trump had easily won Missouri in 2016, Claire McCaskill's surprisingly large upset victory two years later, had left Democrats with a slim hope of carrying the state, especially since Warren had designs on expanding the map. Still, the Show Me State, hadn't been close since 2008, and hadn't been particularly close in 2004 either. While Trump and Pence didn't campaign much here, Warren and Cortez Masto put together a combined twenty-seven campaign stops after the conventions, not counting the Vice Presidential Debate at Missouri State University, which largely was a draw, as Pence and Cortez Masto aimed their shots at the top of the other ticket. That said, both sides were widely criticized for the number of insults, with Pence calling Warren a "communist" and a "godless liberal" and Cortez Masto calling Trump a "traitor", and "a Russian stooge".

While the final results were significantly closer than in 2016, Trump was still able to emerge with a 52-45 victory.

Governor

Mike Parson was eligible to run for a full term, and he chose to so. His strongest challengers, Claire McCaskill and Nicole Galloway chose not to run or ran for Auditor respectively. Democrats instead nominated Former State Senator Jacob Hummel, and while Hummel ran an energetic campaign, he just didn't have the name recognition to win, and as a result Parson won 56-43.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Cort VanOstran's upset win over Ann Wagner in 2018, defined the cycle to many observers, and Republicans were determined to win a seat that leaned heavily towards them back. Republicans nominated State Senator Andrew Koenig. Despite VanOstran's attacks on Koenig's positions as extreme, and the fact Trump narrowly lost the district, the voters were willing to split their ticket downballot, as Koenig gave Republicans their ninth pickup (against three for Democrats) 50.77-47.33.

[Edgeofnight]

Just a minor thing, but the Auditor election is in 2018 in Missouri

[NewYorkExpress]

Just a minor thing, but the Auditor election is in 2018 in Missouri

Thanks. The implication can be made that Galloway chose to run for reelection in 2022 (If I continue to 2022, I'm inclined to give Kander another shot at the Senate).

[NewYorkExpress]

Mississippi

President

Donald Trump was widely expected to again win the Magnolia State comfortably, and some experts were projecting his victory margin to be at least twenty points. Despite some suggestion that Elizabeth Warren make some effort here, she had better opportunities elsewhere in the Southeast and Southern Plains (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas), and as result she did not make any significant effort here, and Trump ended up winning 57-41.7.

Senate

Cindy Hyde-Smith had narrowly defeated Mike Espy in a much watched runoff in 2018 to finish Thad Cochran's term. Now she was running for a full term. Democrats didn't put a ton of effort into the seat, unlike in 2018, and they ultimately nominated State Representative Deborah Butler Dixon. With no help from the DSCC, or from other outside groups, and minimal funding on her own merit, Butler Dixon lost by a wide margin, as Hyde-Smith won handily 58-40.8.

House of Representatives

Second Congressional District

Bennie Thompson was widely expected to get the committee chairmanship on the House Homeland Security Committee. However, Thompson had decided not to run for reelection, and announced his retirement shortly before the filing deadline. Thompson would later resign on October 14, 2020 to take the position as President of Alcorn State University. Governor Hood opted to leave the seat vacant until the winner was sworn in.

As for who that winner would be, Democrats saw a prominent candidate enter in Jackson Mayor Chokwe Lumumba, an open socialist. He glided through the primary with 85% of the vote, and his only opponent in the general was 2016 Reform Party nominee Johnny McLeod, once again running on the Reform line. Lumumba won 84-16.

[NewYorkExpress]

North Dakota

President

President Trump had won North Dakota by a commanding margin, and no one thought that would be any different, except for maybe a point or two shaved off of his margin of victory. Warren, however was one of the worst possible nominees, as she failed to get the endorsement of Heidi Heitkamp during the primaries (she endorsed the rather disastrous campaign of Andrew Cuomo, which dropped out after finishing second from the bottom in the Iowa Caucuses), and declined to endorse anyone in the general election (it would hurt her later). Trump won easily 65-33.7.

Governor

Doug Burgum had handily won election in 2016, but in 2020, he was actually going to face a challenge. Statewide Democrats recruited the candidate they wanted, Senator Heidi Heitkamp to run (which was just as well, as she'd narrowly defeated Kevin Cramer in 2018, and was a heavy underdog to win reelection in 2024 as well). This was one of the most hotly contested Governor's races of the year (there weren't many, of course), as eleven million dollars was spent in the tiny media markets by the two candidates (and that didn't include outside groups like the RGA and DGA...even one pro-Heitkamp PAC got involved on the grounds that Heitkamp would be to appoint her successor to the Senate, which wasn't certain). Despite Trump's overwhelming victory in North Dakota, and Heitkamp's middling popularity, Burgum was essentially a don-nothing Governor, and a CNN/ORC exit poll, showed that voters preferred to have Heitkamp out of the Senate, anyways, as she pulled off yet another upset, defeating Burgum 49.98-49.03.

House of Representatives

At-Large Congressional District

Kelly Armstrong had easily won his first term in 2018, and Democrats were not expected to make a serious play for this seat. The Democrats nominee, State Senator John Grabinger was simply too progressive to win a statewide race, and while he ran a strong campaign, he ultimately fell in defeat 59-40.97.

[NewYorkExpress]

New York

President

Despite being a New Yorker, President Trump had been obliterated in the Empire State, and no one really thought anything different would happen in 2020. Maybe he'd shave a point or two of off Warren's margin of victory, but no one thought he'd come anywhere near a victory. Instead she pulled off an improvement of both Clinton's performance in 2016, and President Obama's in 2012, securing a 67.7-32.1 margin of victory.

House of Representatives

First Congressional District

Perry Gershon's victory over Lee Zeldin was indicative in 2018 of what the midterms were like, especially in New York State. It also had the potential to be an indicator of what the midterms would be like in New York, as well as in other swing districts across the country. Republicans nominated Brookhaven Highway Superintendent Daniel Losquadro. Gershon tried to attack Losaquadro for his former position in the State Assembly, suggesting he was corrupt, and even releasing an ad attempting to link him to Sheldon Silver, who had been convicted of corruption charges, and was now in prison on said charges, despite the fact that Losquadro and Silver were in opposite parties, and did not really work together much at all. Losquadro meanwhile wasn't helped in that he lost the nomination of New York's influential Conservative Party, and that nominee refused to give up the ballot line despite threats from New York GOP chairman Edward Cox. That, in addition to a Warren win in the district (albeit not by much), and Trump's own unpopularity, led to a win for Gershon 51-47.

Second Congressional District

Peter King had barely survived against Lubia Gretchen Shirley in 2018, and he had spent two long years in the minority. King chose not to run for reelection, and began openly considering a run for Governor in 2022, presumably against Andrew Cuomo. Republicans had a contested primary between State Senator Phillip Boyle and Oyster Bay Town Supervisor Joseph Saladino. Boyle attacked Saladino for being part of the corrupt Oyster Bay establishment, an establishment that had already seen the previous Town Supervisor and Nassau County Executive go to prison for corruption, while Saladino attacked Boyle for being part of a corrupt State Senate, including supporting Dean Skelos, who was now in prison for corruption himself. The dueling attacks led to a tossup primary race, and ultimately, Saladino, who earned the endorsement of the NRCC, and outside groups like the Club for Growth and U.S Chamber of Commerce, won 54-45.2

Democrats, meanwhile nominated Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone, and he attacked the race with vigor, slamming Saladino for refusing to debate him. Ultimately, Bellone won easily 56-42.9 for the Democrat's fourth gain (against nine for Republicans)

Third Congressional District

For the second straight cycle Republicans targeted Tom Suozzi, as he had had an uncomfortably close win over Dan DeBono in 2018. This time, Republicans turned to former New York State Senator Elaine Phillips, who had narrowly lost reelection in 2018, as Democrats took the chamber. The race was a tossup right to election day, as Suozzi ran well behind Warren, but he was able to emerge with a 50.07-49 win.

Fourth Congressional District

While National Republicans wanted no part of Kathleen Rice, State and local Republicans wanted her defeated before she could launch a statewide bid for Attorney General or Governor, and they got what they thought was a top-tier recruit in former Hempstead Town Supervisor Kate Murray. Murray got little outside help, except from a local Super PAC with ties to Ivanka Trump, and for that help she was excoriated. Rice won handily 60-39.8.

Eleventh Congressional District

Max Rose had upset Dan Donovan in 2018, but he was now considered the most vulnerable Congressman in the Tri-State area in 2020, as Elizabeth Warren was widely expected to lose the district. Republicans nominated State Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, who had been slaughtered by Bill De Blasio in her bid for Mayor in 2017. However, this was more favored (and smaller) territory, and a better climate for her, and Rose made a major misstep when he called for Malliotakis to resign her Assembly seat after Malliotakis voted against legislation in the State Assembly which banned outside pay for legislators but did not provide a punishment for legislators who were caught, and grandfathered in current legislators. Malliotakis said that if those loopholes were closed, she would vote for the measure, in response, and Governor Cuomo also said he would veto the bill as written, which put an end to the debate. Ultimately Malliotakis defeated Rose 54-44.4, for the Republican's tenth gain (to the Democrats four).

Eighteenth Congressional District

For the second straight cycle, Republicans targeted Sean Patrick Maloney, and this time they brought in a new candidate in Putnam County Legislator Ginny Nacerino. Nacerino was able to keep the race surprisingly competitive early, but with Warren's easy win in the district, the incumbent was able to pull away and hold the seat 57-41.9.

Nineteenth Congressional District

Antonio Delgado had defeated John Faso in 2018, and in 2020 faced what was expected to be a stiff challenge from former State Senator Kathleen Marchione. Marchione however, did not run a disciplined campaign, and there was a question of whether she actually wanted to be in Congress, and as such, Delgado won comfortably 56-42.8.

Twenty First Congressional District

Tedra Cobb had stunned Elise Stefanik in 2018, but most in Washington, and New York viewed her as a weak incumbent. Republicans nominated State Assemblyman Daniel Stec, and despite Warren winning the district by a narrow margin, Stec presented himself as more put together than Cobb, who had earned a negative reputation among Democrats in that she voted for herself for Speaker, the only person in either party to do so. Stec defeated Cobb 51-48.96, for the Republicans eleventh gain (against four for the Democrats).

Twenty Second Congressional District

Anthony Brindisi had beaten Claudia Tenney in 2018, but Republicans were confident they could win the seat back. Their nominee was State Representative Christopher Friend. Friend was a strong candidate, but Brindisi ran a stronger campaign, and ultimately held on to win 50.02-49.24.

Twenty Fourth Congressional District

Dana Balter had narrowly beaten John Katko in 2018, and Republicans were targeting the seat this cycle. However they had trouble recruiting a candidate at first, before successfully landing the candidacy of Onondaga County Executive Joanie Mahoney. Mahoney had a huge problem though, as the powerful Conservative Party refused to endorse her, because of her habit of endorsing Democrats, and party chair Michael Long flat out said she should be a Democrat because of that habit. Balter defeated Mahoney 54-39, with the Conservative Party nominee earning 7%.

Twenty Seventh Congressional District

Nate McMurray had stunned the then under indictment Chris Collins in 2018 (Collins would be acquitted of all charges in late 2019). Republicans nominated State Assemblyman Angleo Morinello to face McMurray. The district snapped back to it's usual Republican lean, as one of the only two districts Trump carried (The other being the Eleventh). Morinello won 55-44.2, for the Republicans twelfth gain (against the Democrats four).

[Cold War Liberal]

Current map:

Warren/Cortez-Masto: 149 Electoral Votes
Trump/Pence: 72 Electoral Votes

My prediction:

Give or take GA and IA

Warren/Cortez-Masto: ~53%, 359 Electoral Votes
Trump/Pence: ~45%, 179 Electoral Votes

[NewYorkExpress]

Current map:

Warren/Cortez-Masto: 149 Electoral Votes
Trump/Pence: 64 Electoral Votes

My prediction:

Give or take GA and IA

Warren/Cortez-Masto: ~53%, 359 Electoral Votes
Trump/Pence: ~45%, 179 Electoral Votes

I will point out in regards to Georgia that I elected Stacey Abrams Governor in 2018, and Trump's approvals haven't gotten better.

Democrats probably have a better chance of winning atop the ballot than knocking off Senator Purdue...but you never know.

Also, I already called Kentucky. Trump won there by twelve.

[Cold War Liberal]

I will point out in regards to Georgia that I elected Stacey Abrams Governor in 2018, and Trump's approvals haven't gotten better.

Democrats probably have a better chance of winning atop the ballot than knocking off Senator Purdue...but you never know.

Interesting

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fixed

[NewYorkExpress]

Georgia

Georgia was quickly becoming a tossup state, especially after Hillary Clinton garnered the best Democratic performance since 1992, when Bill Clinton had won the state, albeit with a lower percentage of the vote. With Kamala Harris having handily won the primary here, Warren chose to deploy her here, and also had the Obama's do much of the campaigning here, only making seventeen stops here, with Cortez Masto making nineteen. By comparison, Trump made forty nine campaign stops, and Pence made forty two campaign stops in the Peach State. Unlike in South Carolina, where having the Obama's on the trail had backfired, in Georgia it worked, especially as the state had elected an African American Governor in 2018, in Stacey Abrams, who had endorsed Harris during the primaries (only Secretary of State John Barrow had not neither endorsed Harris or a Republican, instead choosing to remain neutral). Most experts believed Warren would combine her minority base with progressive Whites to flip the Peach State, and they were right, as she won 50.07-49.03.

Senate

Democrats had high hopes of knocking off David Perdue, but they were saddled with a recruiting hole as they struggled to find a candidate. Each of their top tier candidates (Teresa Tomlinson, Kasim Reed, Scott Holcomb, Michelle Nunn, Jason Carter, Keisha Lance Bottoms, John Barrow, Charlie Bailey) all passed. Democrats still found a candidate willing to go for it, however, he wasn't really to their liking, as he had blown what they thought was a winnable race against Karen Handel in 2017. Their nominee, John Ossoff earned the bare minimum of support from DSCC, and outside organizations like Daily Kos and Moveon.org pressured the DSCC to cut Ossoff loose altogether, on the grounds that he wasn't progressive enough, with Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas saying "We need a hundred Bernie Sanders in the Senate, and four hundred thirty five more in the House". The controversy led to a boycott of Daily Kos by some posters that lasted through the end of the 2018 election and into the beginning of 2019, with one (who shall remain nameless) saying "it's never wise to offend candidates who can actually win, because they can make your life a living hell". Some in Ossoff's campaign thought he might have beaten Purdue outright had he had more money, and more help from the outside, but instead the race would go to a runoff, with Ossoff leading 49.68-48.79. Said runoff would take place in one month's time, and most experts believed that Perdue was favored to win it, especially with no vital top of ticket race on the ballot.

House of Representatives

Fifth Congressional District

John Lewis had been a force in Congress for many years, but he was getting up there in age, and he admitted throughout 2019 that it was time to pass on his legacy to someone younger. Democrats had a three way primary between former State Representative Simone Bell, former Atlanta City Council President Ceasar Mitchell and Atlanta City Councilman Michael Julian Bond. While the primary was closely fought, having Lewis's endorsement made all the difference, and he endorsed Mitchell two weeks before the primary, leading to Mitchell rising from third to a win with 51% of the vote, to 29% for Bond, and and 19.79% for Bell. Mitchell did not face any opposition in the General Election.

Sixth Congressional District

Lucy McBath had done what Jon Ossoff could not do and defeated Karen Handel in 2018, but Republicans were gunning for her seat. She did get somewhat lucky, in that her opponent was former U.S Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, who was running for his old seat in Congress. McBath had plenty of attack material on Price, from his time in Congress, to his two hundred thirty one days in Trumps cabinet. As such, McBath won by a narrow margin 50.36-48.05.

Seventh Congressional District

Carolyn Bordeaux had stunned Rob Woodall in 2018, but Republicans were eager to try and reclaim the seat in 2020. Their nominee was former Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle, who was in some ways a stronger candidate, and in some ways a weaker candidate. Cagle raced out to an early lead, and ultimately won the race in the heavily Republican district 58-41, for the Republicans thirteenth pickup (against four for the Democrats).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Warren is very unpopular in the South and among indepnedents so i'm quite sure that this isn't going to happen.

[NewYorkExpress]

Warren is very unpopular in the South and among indepnedents so i'm quite sure that this isn't going to happen.

Keep in mind that's Trump's approval has slipped a lot, allowing Warren to gain amongst Independents, plus here the Governor is now a Democrat (Stacey Abrams) as was the Secretary of State, and they were able to pull a reverse Brian Kemp and suppress a bunch of reliably Republican votes.

If Warren were to run for reelection in 2024 (which isn't set in stone yet), I don't think she'd win Georgia again (or North Carolina for that matter), without something going really right for her.

[Cold War Liberal]

Warren is very unpopular in the South and among indepnedents so i'm quite sure that this isn't going to happen.

Keep in mind that's Trump's approval has slipped a lot, allowing Warren to gain amongst Independents, plus here the Governor is now a Democrat (Stacey Abrams) as was the Secretary of State, and they were able to pull a reverse Brian Kemp and suppress a bunch of reliably Republican votes.

If Warren were to run for reelection in 2024 (which isn't set in stone yet), I don't think she'd win Georgia again (or North Carolina for that matter), without something going really right for her.

Are you going to 2024 and/or beyond with this? What's the plan for after the election?

[NewYorkExpress]

Warren is very unpopular in the South and among indepnedents so i'm quite sure that this isn't going to happen.

Keep in mind that's Trump's approval has slipped a lot, allowing Warren to gain amongst Independents, plus here the Governor is now a Democrat (Stacey Abrams) as was the Secretary of State, and they were able to pull a reverse Brian Kemp and suppress a bunch of reliably Republican votes.

If Warren were to run for reelection in 2024 (which isn't set in stone yet), I don't think she'd win Georgia again (or North Carolina for that matter), without something going really right for her.

Are you going to 2024 and/or beyond with this? What's the plan for after the election?

I would like to go to at least 2024, but redistricting is weakness of mine, so any help I can get with that would be appreciated when we get there.