November 2020 and beyond, election madness

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

do you have a drawn map for Indiana and other states?

[NewYorkExpress]

do you have a drawn map for Indiana and other states?

No, and when I started the thread, I seem to recall asking for help for redistricting.

I do have a vague idea of what I have in mind for New York, but other that, I'm really not sure where I'm going, so any help I get would be very much appreciated.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

do you have a drawn map for Indiana and other states?

No, and when I started the thread, I seem to recall asking for help for redistricting.

I do have a vague idea of what I have in mind for New York, but other that, I'm really not sure where I'm going, so any help I get would be very much appreciated.

You should have contracted out my help! I could have drawn districts for you.
I guess better late than never.
Any states you have in mind?

[NewYorkExpress]

do you have a drawn map for Indiana and other states?

No, and when I started the thread, I seem to recall asking for help for redistricting.

I do have a vague idea of what I have in mind for New York, but other that, I'm really not sure where I'm going, so any help I get would be very much appreciated.

You should have contracted out my help! I could have drawn districts for you.
I guess better late than never.
Any states you have in mind?

I was planning to do Kentucky next, though there with this TL, I focus on races where there aren't incumbents or are otherwise competitive (either via primary or general election) when doing House Races.

Third would probably be Vermont, and South Carolina would be fourth up.

Again, any help you could provide would be appreciated.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

do you have a drawn map for Indiana and other states?

No, and when I started the thread, I seem to recall asking for help for redistricting.

I do have a vague idea of what I have in mind for New York, but other that, I'm really not sure where I'm going, so any help I get would be very much appreciated.

You should have contracted out my help! I could have drawn districts for you.
I guess better late than never.
Any states you have in mind?

I was planning to do Kentucky next, though there with this TL, I focus on races where there aren't incumbents or are otherwise competitive (either via primary or general election) when doing House Races.

Third would probably be Vermont, and South Carolina would be fourth up.

Again, any help you could provide would be appreciated.

Quick question - do Rs have a trifecta in KY?
(feel free to reply in either PM or this thread, in as much or as little detail as you wish)

[NewYorkExpress]

do you have a drawn map for Indiana and other states?

No, and when I started the thread, I seem to recall asking for help for redistricting.

I do have a vague idea of what I have in mind for New York, but other that, I'm really not sure where I'm going, so any help I get would be very much appreciated.

You should have contracted out my help! I could have drawn districts for you.
I guess better late than never.
Any states you have in mind?

I was planning to do Kentucky next, though there with this TL, I focus on races where there aren't incumbents or are otherwise competitive (either via primary or general election) when doing House Races.

Third would probably be Vermont, and South Carolina would be fourth up.

Again, any help you could provide would be appreciated.

Quick question - do Rs have a trifecta in KY?
(feel free to reply in either PM or this thread, in as much or as little detail as you wish)

No. Andy Beshear won in 2019 in this TL. They do however, have control of both houses of the legislature.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

do you have a drawn map for Indiana and other states?

No, and when I started the thread, I seem to recall asking for help for redistricting.

I do have a vague idea of what I have in mind for New York, but other that, I'm really not sure where I'm going, so any help I get would be very much appreciated.

You should have contracted out my help! I could have drawn districts for you.
I guess better late than never.
Any states you have in mind?

I was planning to do Kentucky next, though there with this TL, I focus on races where there aren't incumbents or are otherwise competitive (either via primary or general election) when doing House Races.

Third would probably be Vermont, and South Carolina would be fourth up.

Again, any help you could provide would be appreciated.

Quick question - do Rs have a trifecta in KY?
(feel free to reply in either PM or this thread, in as much or as little detail as you wish)

No. Andy Beshear won in 2019 in this TL. They do however, have control of both houses of the legislature.

Link to the KY map has been sent via PM.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kentucky

Senate

Despite early speculation that Rand Paul might lose reelection in 2022, his electoral prospects improved as President Warren's popularity declined. Other speculation included Paul declining to run for reelection to focus on a possible 2023 bid for Governor or a 2024 bid for President, both options he claimed was denying (though he didn't rule out the Presidential run). Democrats couldn't get their top choices, Governor Andy Beshear or former Auditor Adam Edelen to run, and got an more... unusual challenger in University of Kentucky Men's Basketball Head Coach John Calipari. While Calipari was a highly decorated coach, he was not an experienced politician, and he faced a primary challenge from former State Representative Greg Stumbo, who had served a single term as Attorney General from 2004 to 2008. Stumbo was old for a freshman Senator (he would be 71 in August 2022), while Calipari had never held elected office before, and had received criticism from many,including Governor Beshear for attempting to coach the Kentucky Basketball team while also running for the Senate. Ultimately, Stumbo defeated Calipari in the primary 60-39.

In the General Election, Paul was already favored, despite early spending from the DSCC (largely because Alison Lundergan Grimes had won the other Senate seat two years prior- polling already showed her trailing all challengers in 2026). However, the weak quality of his opponent, plus Warren's unpopularity in Kentucky, led to Paul winning easily 64-35 over Stumbo.

House of Representatives

Third Congressional District

While most Congressional Districts in Kentucky only got more Republican in redistricting, the third, based in Louisville, stayed just Democratic enough that Democrats were likely to hold the seat. That said, Republicans targeted John Yarmuth, and they caught a break of sorts, when he chose to retire in December of 2021. Democrats quickly rallied around Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer. Republicans, meanwhile nominated State Senator Julie Raque Adams. In what was the most expensive race in Kentucky (Multiple outside groups spent significant sums of money here, whereas, in the Senate race Stumbo's collapse had led to the DSCC and Democratic aligned outside groups pulling out fairly quickly), Raque Adams pulled off a massive upset 49.7-49.1, for the Republicans second gain of the night.

Fifth Congressional District

Hal Rogers's decision to retire, having served continuously since being elected in 1980, was largely an age related decision (he'd be 85 on New Year's Eve 2022), and many expected, that with the Republican Primary tantamount to election, a Republican would be elected to replace Rogers. Many Republicans, but a pair drew at least some outside attention. They were University of Pikeville President Burton Webb and Pulaski Mayor Alan Keck. Neither were considered potentially strong candidates per say, but compared to the rest of the field, which was largely just a bunch of perennial candidates, both at least had potential. Keck ultimately won a low turnout primary 31-29 over Webb, with seven other candidates splitting the remaining 40%.'In the general Election, Keck defeated 2012, 2014 and 2018 nominee for the previous incarnation of this district, Kenneth Stepp 77-22.6.

Sixth Congressional District

The Sixth Congressional District was still largely anchored by Lexington, and remained mostly Republican leaning. In 2020, David Hale had defeated the incumbent, Amy McGrath in a close race for a Republican pickup. However, Hale in late 2021 had faced a scandal when his Chief of Staff for his reelection campaign was caught embezzling money from the campaign to go to a fake charity. This gave the Democrats new life. Despite speculation that McGrath would run here (or for Senate), she ultimately chose to run for Mayor of Lexington, a race she won, a decision which at the time, some Democrats thought would save Hale. Their nominee ended up being State Representative Cherlynn Stevenson, who essentially was running because her seat had become unwinnable in legislative redistricting. In another expensive race (and another race where the two House candidates, and outside groups combined outspent the Senate race), voters sent a clear signal this was going to be an unusual cycle, as just like in the Third District, there was a massive upset, as Stevenson won 49.89-49.79-49.19, for the first gain for Democrats (against two for Republicans)

Vermont

Governor

Miro Weinberger had won election easily in 2020, and even in a Republican wave, no one seriously thought he would lose. Republicans didn't have much of a primary, as only one candidate ran, State Representative Charles "Butch" Shaw. Weinberger easily rode his own personal popularity to a victory 66-33.9.

Senate

Democrats in the Senate got their first clue of just how bad the cycle might be for them when longtime Senator Patrick Leahy announced he would retire shortly before Independence Day 2021. Three days after that announcement, Phil Scott, the still popular former Governor, announced he would enter the race. Despite speculation that Scott might face a primary challenge from his right, none materialized, and Democrats were forced to deal with the prospect of having to spend money in a reliably Democratic state like Vermont. Democrats ended up with a primary between State Senator Rebecca "Becca" Balint, and State Representative Jill Krowinski. After DSCC and EMILY's List endorsed Krowinski, the primary quickly got one-sided, and Krowinski won 60-40. The General Election was the closest this particular Senate seat had seen since Leahy's 1992 victory over Jim Douglas, as national Democrats were forced to shovel in millions to bail out their nominee and defeat Scott. The strategy worked, as Krowinski won 49.99-49.19, for a vital Senate hold for Democrats.

At-Large Congressional District

Vermont's At-Large Congressional District wasn't really competitive, and despite speculation that T.J Donovan would run for Senate to succeed the retiring Patrick Leahy, he chose to run for reelection instead. Republicans did run a serious candidate in former State Representative Donald Turner Jr (who had lost the election for Lieutenant Governor in 2018), but he was hopelessly outgunned and neither National nor local Republicans paid much attention to this race, as Donovan won 62-38.

Maine

Governor

Janet Mills was eligible to run for reelection, and she chose to do so. Facing her was a potentially crowded Republican Primary, with two high-profile names, and one lesser known one. They were, Former Governor Paul LePage, former Senator Olympia Snowe and singer-songwriter Howie Day (who was running as a Republican instead of a Democrat or an independent because he thought he could win the primary, no one was taking him seriously in terms of the general election). Day, despite raising significant sums of money, had trouble getting traction. Meanwhile, Snowe and LePage got into a nasty ad war, with Snowe taking shots at LePage, who still mostly disliked, while LePage fired back at Snowe for being a RINO. Ultimately it seemed the voter's memories of LePage's Governorship were still strong, as Snowe won the primary with 55% of the vote to 29% for LePage and 16% for Day.

In the General Election, Snowe was able to run a largely positive campaign, and for the first time in a generation, there were no prominent Independents running. Snowe defeated Mills by a 52-48 margin for Republicans first Gubernatorial gain of the night.

House of Representatives

Maine's two Congressional Districts remained largely the same after redistricting. One Democratic-leaning District to the south, and one swing Leaning District to the North.

Second Congressional District

Jared Golden had gotten very lucky in 2020, in that Paul LePage had been his Republican opponent (he'd since bombed in the primary for Governor). This time, Republicans were dedicated to finding a stronger candidate to face him in this swing district, and they settled on State Representative Dustin White. White was a stronger candidate, just by virtue of not being Paul LePage, and it helped that Olympia Snowe won this district atop the ballot. This wasn't the most expensive race in Maine (that honor narrowly went to the Gubernatorial race), but with the Congressional Campaign committees for sides involved, it got quite pricey. However, this was a Republican wave year, and White ultimately picked up the seat 51-49, for the third gain for the Republicans (against one for Democrats).

South Carolina

Governor

Henry McMaster was able to run for reelection, and despite a decline in popularity, he did so. He first had to fend off a primary challenge from Congresswoman Katie Arrington (who had won a close race in 2018, and then won easily in 2020) on his right flank. McMaster ultimately couldn't dig out of hole that several early attack ads, plus an ongoing corruption investigation that wouldn't go away, led to Arrington winning the primary 55-44.

Democrats also had a competitive primary, between former State Representative Bakari Sellers and 2018 Congressional nominee in the First Congressional District, Joe Cunningham. The primary largely broke down on racial lines, which was a huge advantage for Sellers, but Sellers also had several endorsements from prominent White politicians, such as Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. This was also a rare primary where President Warren got involved, and she too backed Sellers. Faced with this, it was no wonder that Sellers defeated Cunningham 59-40.

South Carolina had been surprisingly close in 2020, but Warren's popularity had declined here (not that it was ever great to begin with), and while Sellers ran an excellent campaign, the Democrats chances at victory disappeared when McMaster lost the Republican primary, as Arrington defeated Sellers 53-46.5 for a Republican hold.

Senate

Tim Scott was running for reelection for what he said would be his final term in the Senate, win or lose, and was being talked up in Republican circles as a possible Presidential contender in 2024 (which he was noncommittal about). Democrats had trouble finding a serious candidate to run for Senate after their top choice, Vincent Sheheen chose to run for Attorney General instead. Instead, they ended up nominating former State Representative James Smith Jr, who had been the 2018 nominee for Governor. Smith ran a solid campaign, but Scott was broadly popular in the state, and was widely expected to win easily, which he did 59-40.6 for a Republican hold.

House of Representatives

South Carolina still had six seats, with the African American majority sixth district, designed to elected a African American Democrat, and six Republican Districts.

First Congressional District

Katie Arrington's successful campaign for Governor left this seat open. Republicans had only two candidates running, but they both were notable in their own way. They were State Representative Nancy Mace and Port Royal Town Councilman Jerry Ashmore. Mace quickly got the endorsement of state and national Republicans and easily beat Ashmore in the primary 55-45.

Democrats meanwhile, had trouble finding a serious contender, and ultimately nominated R&B singer Candice Glover. Glover was not a particularly strong candidate, and while national Democrats expressed early interest in flipping the seat, they were forced to pull out fairly early on, as they were playing defense elsewhere. Mace defeated Glover in the General Election 58-41.

Second Congressional District

Joe Wilson's decision to retire had left National Republicans in shock. However, a serious primary quickly began to form on their side of the aisle, with four credible candidates running. They were, Aiken Mayor Rick Osbon, State Representative Chip Huggins, State Representative Micah Caskey and State Representative Bill Hixon. The NRCC expressed a preference for Caskey early on, and he led in polling throughout the race and he and Hixon advanced to the runoff with 39% and 33% of the vote respectively, to Huggins's 19% and Osborn's 6%. In the runoff, Huggins and Osborn both endorsed Caskey, helping him to a 58-42 victory.

Democrats were not expected to be competitive here. However, they did get a quality candidate in Barnwell Mayor Marcus Rivera. Unfortunately, he was running in the wrong district, in the wrong year, to have any serious chance at flipping the seat, as Caskey won 63-37.

Fifth Congressional District

With Ralph Norman serving as Kate Arrington's running mate (and subsequently getting elected Lieutenant Governor), he was abandoning this Congressional seat. Again, Republicans had a multi-way primary, with three candidates drawing attention beyond the local level. They were, York City Manager Seth Duncan, State Representative Gary Simrill and State Representative Tommy Pope (who had previously run for this seat in a special election in 2017). The NRCC backed Pope early on, and he won the three way primary without the need for a runoff getting 52% of the vote to Simrill's 28% and Duncan's 19%.

Democrats weren't left completely in the cold in terms of candidate selection. This was a district that would be just on the edge of winnable for them in a wave year, and their nominee, Rock Hill Mayor John Gettys was actually a solid candidate. Unfortunately, this was a wave year in the opposite direction, and Pope ended up winning the seat 58-41.

Seventh Congressional District

Tom Rice announced he would retire, and after retirement, become a visiting professor at Coastal Carolina University.

Once again, there was a significant Republican Primary to replace him. Three candidates drew attention beyond the local media. They were Myrtle Beach City Councilman John Krajc, State Senator Luke Rankin and State Representative Kevin Hardee. The NRCC again got involved early, this time endorsing Rankin. However, that didn't stop a mostly civil (the primary cost the least amount of money of any contested primary in South Carolina) primary from occurring, as Rankin avoided a runoff by securing 53% of the vote, to Krajc's 25% and Hardee's 20%.

This was another district Democrats could, in theory flip in a big enough wave. They got an interesting candidate in former Miss Teen USA Katherine Lee Graham, who had turned 25, the minimum age required to be a member of Congress at the end of April, 2022. However, Graham was not a strong candidate, and this was a Republican wave, and so, Rankin defeated Graham 57-42.

[NewYorkExpress]

New Hampshire

Governor

Ann McLane Kuster faced the potential of a difficult reelection challenge. Former Governor Chris Sununu was widely considered the most likely candidate to run, but he chose to challenge Maggie Hassan instead. This meant Republicans had a contested primary between State Senator Chuck Morse and former Executive Councilman Russell Prescott (who had lost reelection in 2020). Both Morse and Prescott, by national standards of Republicans were moderates, but Prescott found one line of attack in the primary that worked, as he hit Morse for endorsing Jeb Bush saying the endorsement "encouraged dynastic politics in America". Prescott won the primary 58-41.

The General Election, was easily one of the more closely fought elections in 2020, and nowhere did Warren's decline in standing seem more dramatic than here. Warren had won by fifteen percent in the Presidential election two years ago, but now her approval rating had sunk to 46-46, according to Saint Anselm College. Prescott narrowly defeated Kuster 50.1-49.2, for the second Republican Gubernatorial gain.

Senate

Maggie Hassan was considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2020 (there weren't many to choose from). Republicans got their top choice for the race, in former Governor Chris Sununu. However, conservatives were displeased with Sununu's record as Governor, and he had to fend off a primary challenge from State Representative Jason Osborn, who ran to his right. While Osborn attacked Sununu on being pro-choice, and opposing the overturning Obergefell v. Hodges, Sununu largely ignored him, and for good reason, as he was running far ahead of Osborn in the polls, and had the endorsement of the NRSC. Sununu defeated Hodges in the primary 67-33.

The General Election was the most expensive race in New Hampshire in 2022, with a combined nineteen million dollars being spent by the two candidates, and almost sixteen million more being spent by assorted outside groups. However, the decline in Warren's popularity, Hassan's votes for Jacqueline Nugyen, Sri Srinivasen and Sally Yates (Yates was especially unpopular with New Hampshire voters) to the Supreme Court, led to a victory for Sununu 49.95-49.11, for the Republicans first gain in the Senate of the night.

House of Representatives

New Hampshire's two House Districts remained essentially tossup districts, though the essential plan was to swap some precincts in the First District and move them to the Second, thereby shoring the First District up.

First Congressional District

Despite the  shoring up of his district, Chris Pappas was still considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Country, as there was only so much you could shore a district up by in New Hampshire. Unfortunately for him, Democrats didn't shore his district up enough, and coupled with Warren's declining popularity (she'd only won Belknap County and Carroll County by plurality margins), spelled trouble for Pappas. A pair of Republicans challenged for the seat. They were, State Representative Ed Comeau, and State Representative Josh Yokela. Yokela won the primary 55-45, and advanced to face Pappas.

Pappas was an underdog going into the general election, and despite an openly homophobic ad aired by a PAC supporting Yokela (which the candidate quickly the disavowed), the primary issue in the campaign was President Warren, who was far more unpopular in this district than in the first. Yokela defeated Pappas 54-45, for the Republicans fourth gain (against one for Democrats)

Second Congressional District

This District had been weakened for Democrats somewhat, by trading the rest of Merrimack County for the portions of Rockingham and Hillisborough Counties that remained in the First District. Tom Buco was another vulnerable incumbent for Democrats. Republicans had a spirited primary between former State Representative Jason Janvrin (who had lost reelection in 2020), State Representative Harry Viens, and State Representative Kimberly Rice. The NRCC's decision to endorse Rice, backed by NRCC chairperson Mario Diaz-Balart, was the deciding factor in the race, as Rice won the primary with 47% of the vote to 28% for Janvrin and 25% for Viens.

The General election again saw significant sums of outside money be spent on the race, however Buco was swept out in a Republican Wave, as Rice won 52-47.6, for the Republicans fifth pickup (against one for Democrats)

West Virginia

West Virginia did not have a top of ballot race in 2022, but already all eyes were on Joe Manchin, to see if he would run for reelection as a Senator in 2024, run for Governor or just retire (he said all three options were on the table).

House of Representatives

West Virginia was losing a Congressional seat 2022, forcing legislators to attempt to combine three districts into two. The most obvious answer was to split the Second Congressional District down the middle, and that was the plan that actually happened.

First Congressional District

David McKinley's decision to retire left an opening for John McCuskey, the Congressman in the Second District, which was being broken apart. McCuskey chose to run here, rather than face an incumbent in the new Second Congressional District. Democrats nominated State Senator Richard Ojeda, who was been seen in many statewide circles as the next likely Democratic nominee when Joe Manchin decided to move on from the Senate seat he occupied. Thus those same Democrats saw this bid as a political misstep. However, Ojeda ran a strong, energetic campaign, and ultimately came surprisingly close to defeating McCuskey, only losing by 55-44 margin.

Second Congressional District

At least some thought local politicians thought Carol Miller might be vulnerable, especially if she faced a Republican primary with fellow incumbent John McCuskey. However she caught a break when McCuskey chose to run in the First District instead. What she didn't get as lucky with, was her opponent in the General Election. She had badly underperformed against Natalie Tennant in 2020, and hadn't done that much better against Richard Ojeda in 2018. In 2022, Democrats nominated Charleston City Councilwoman Jennifer Pharr. Pharr wasn't considered as strong a candidate as Ojeda and Tennant were, but she was considered a solid candidate in her own right. The problem for her was  that this was a very Republican year, and that meant Pharr had pretty much zero shot at victory. Miller won, again underperforming, 55-44.

Delaware

Like in West Virginia, there no top of ticket races in Delaware. In addition the At-Large Congressional District was not expected to be competitive, though there was always the possibility for a surprise.

At-Large Congressional District

Lisa Blunt Rochester was running for reelection, but everyone in and outside of Delaware expected her to be running for a different office in two years, be it Governor (John Carney being term-limited) or Senator (Tom Carper was making noise about retirement in 2024, and he seemed likely to get a primary challenge anyways). Republicans chose to nominate State Representative Timothy Dukes. Dukes ran a competitive campaign, but Blunt Rochester was broadly popular, and won easily 59-39.9.

Alabama

Governor

Kay Ivey was eligible to run for reelection, but she kept the media and voters in suspense for most of 2021 about her plans. Finally, shortly before Halloween 2021, Ivey announced that she would not run for reelection. Republicans, as a result, had a competitive primary with several high profile candidates. They were, Lieutenant Governor Will Ainsworth, Mobile Mayor William "Sandy" Stimpson, State Senator Del Marsh, and Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (who had finished second to Ivey in the Republican in the 2018 Gubernatorial Election). Ainsworth was considered the favorite, but Alabama political observers expected that the race would go to a runoff. Unlike in the 2020 Senate race, they were right. Ainsworth and Marsh, the two most well known and best funded candidates advanced to the runoff with 39% and 35% of the vote respectively. Battle finished third with 19% and, Stimpson took fourth with 6.6%. In the runoff, Ainsworth and Marsh turned on each other, each questioning the other's commitment to the conservative cause, however the endorsements from the defeated candidates (both Stimpson and Battle endorsed Ainsworth), plus a late endorsement from Governor Ivey, turned the tide as Ainsworth won the runoff 53-47.

Democrats also had a contested primary, between Birmingham Mayor Darrell Woodfin and State Representative Merika Coleman. Compared to the Republican Primary, the Democratic Primary was far more civil, as both Woodfin and Coleman expressed more of a vision for a future of a more inclusive Alabama. Ultimately Woodfin was able to articulate that vision better, and won the primary 54-45.8.

Ainsworth was considered a heavy favorite in the general election, but Woodfin gamely traveled to all 67 counties in Alabama at least twice between the Democratic Primary and the General Election, which helped him keep his margin of defeat down, and set him up as a possible Congressional Candidate, or a future statewide candidate again. Ainsworth only won by 57-42.7 margin.

Senate

Richard Shelby's retirement in November of 2021 set off a scramble for his Senate seat. Both parties tried to recruit Alabama Football Coach Nick Saban, but seeing what was happening to John Calipari in the Kentucky Senate Race, left Saban with very little desire to enter the meatgrinder of national politics, and as a result he bowed out of the race fairly quickly.

Republicans had a crowded primary, with several candidates drawing attention, in one form or another. They were, Congressman Joseph Cannon (whose Congressional District was being dismantled in redistricting), Former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court Lyn Stuart (who was not the only  ex-Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice interested in the race. Roy Moore expressed interest, before deciding not to run), former State Senator Paul Bussman , Secretary of State John Merrill and State Representative Nathaniel Ledbetter. This race was expected to go to a runoff, though Merrill was considered the favorite, and Cannon had drawn support from several right-wing groups. However much like 2020 Senate race, the frontrunner avoided a runoff, as Merrill garnered 51% of the vote, to 21% for Cannon, 14% for Bussman, 8% for Stuart and 5.9% for Ledbetter.

Democrats also had a contested primary, between Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox (who had been the nominee for Governor in 2018, losing to Ivey) and State Senator Vivian Davis Figures (who been the nominee for the other Senate seat in 2008, losing to Jeff Sessions). Davis Figures attacked Maddox as "not progressive enough to be a Democrat", and while most national Democrats stayed out of the race, she did pick up endorsements from EMILY's List, Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama and Stacey Abrams. The best endorsement Maddox ended up getting (from anywhere, Alabama or otherwise), ended up being Jim Hood. As a result, Davis Figures defeated Maddox 58-42 the primary.

The general election was not expected to be competitive, especially with Warren's popularity even lower than it had been in 2016. As a result, Merrill defeated Davis Figures 66-34, for a Republican hold.

House of Representatives

Alabama was losing a Congressional District in the 2022 round of redistricting, and the plan agreed upon by the legislature and Governor Ivey was to combine the Fifth District with the Fourth District.

Fourth Congressional District

Chris Hall was considered potentially vulnerable if he face a member vs member matchup with Joseph Cannon. However, he caught a break when Cannon chose to make an unsuccessful bid for the Senate. He still had to deal with a primary challenge however, from actress Julia Campbell, Campbell essentially based her campaign out of Huntsville, but she had problems gaining traction in the primary, and ultimately lost 62-38.

In the General Election, Hall faced 2020 candidate for Secretary of State, Lula Albert, and won easily 66-34.

Fifth Congressional District

Gary Palmer chose to run for Lieutenant Governor (a race he won), leaving this seat open. Despite speculation that Republicans would have a crowded primary, they ultimately didn't, nominating Public Service Commissioner Twinkle Cavanuagh without much of a struggle. Facing Cavanaugh in the general election was Alabama State Senator Roger Smitherman. Smitherman's problems were twofold. He did not live in the district (His home was in Terri Sewell's district), and he was the wrong candidate for the district by several degrees. As a result, Cavanaugh won easily 59-40.

Sixth Congressional District

Like Gary Palmer, Terri Sewell was giving up her Congressional Seat to do something else, in this case, she would be retiring to serve as the President of Alabama A&M University (the current President, Andrew Hugine Jr., was leaving to become the Athletic Director of Georgia Southern University, beginning with the Fall Sports Calendar in 2023). Sewell was chosen as the new President in February of 2021, but she wouldn't need to resign, as Hugine Jr.'s last day at Alabama A&M was on March 1, 2023.

This exit, opened the doors for a wide variety of local politicians to run for the seat. Three Democrats ultimately stood out from amongst their peers. They were, Jefferson County District Attorney Danny Carr, State Representative Juandalynn Givan and State Representative Neil Rafferty. Rafferty quickly got criticism for being a White candidate who was trying to run in a majority-African American district, and Al Sharpton, when endorsing Givan, called him a "colonizer". Carr got into some trouble too, for his tenure as District Attorney, as between 2020 and 2022, the Jefferson County Alabama DA's office had the third highest case of Death Penalty prosecutions in Alabama (five, with three convictions). With that Givan won the primary without the need for a runoff, earning 52% of the vote. Rafferty surprised some observers of local politics by finishing second, with 28%, and Carr earned 20%.

Republicans, well aware they could not win this district, did not attempt to field a candidate here in the general election.

[NewYorkExpress]

Virginia

Virginia did not have any top-of ballot elections in 2022, however both Republicans and Democrats had reasons to be excited heading into the 2022 midterms, Republicans had picked up both the Governor's mansion, and forced a 50-50 split in the House of Delegates. Democrats meanwhile still controlled the State Senate after picking it up in 2019, along with the House of Delegates and they retained the offices of Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, plus demographic trends were favoring them in areas that important to winning statewide (which would be important in 2024).

House of Representatives

In the final months of 2020, the Virginia Legislature passed, and Governor Northam signed a law establishing a bipartisan redistricting commission. The Commission didn't really make a lot of changes to the map, with only minor cosmetic changes made to the non-Voting Rights Act Districts, that didn't really change the partisan makeup of any one district.

Second Congressional District

Democrats hoped to win back the second Congressional District after Jason Miyares defeated Elaine Luria in 2020, but Luria chose not to try to reclaim her old seat, but instead launch a bid for Governor in 2021 instead (she finished third in the primary, far behind the winner). Democrats nominated Stephanie von Schaaf, who was the wife of State Delegate Steve Heretick. Von Schaaf proved to be a weak nominee, and ended up raising little money (only $898,997, which was barely enough to keep the lights on), which allowed Miyares to win easily 57-42, in what was cited by Virginia Democrats as a textbook case of poor recruiting.

Fourth Congressional District

Donald McEachin's decision to encourage embattled Senator Justin Fairfax (facing four sexual assault allegations as of the 2022 midterms- the fourth coming from Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer at the 2022 State of the Union, and she was pressing charges, unlike Amy Klobuchar) not to resign, had led to him getting a primary challenge. His challenger was Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, who along with most other Democrats (and all Republicans) called for Fairfax to resign, and said that should Fairfax not resign the Senate should vote to expel him "even if it means a Republican Senator".  Stoney won broad support from women's groups, and Virginia Democrats largely supported him over McEachin. He also won the endorsements of Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama. McEachin's most prominent endorsement (other than Fairfax-which didn't help at all), was another person who had been accused of sexual assault, former Senator Al Franken, which was an endorsement McEachin was forced to disavow after considerable protest. Ultimately, Stoney won the expensive primary, 55-45.

While Republicans did not put up a candidate, an Independent candidate did run for the seat in David Lambert who had lost a 2015 race for the House of Delegates. Stoney won 79-21.

Fifth Congressional District

After Michael Webert defeated Leslie Cockburn in 2018, Democrats targeted this seat, despite it being on the fringe of what they could pick up in a wave (though Cockburn had won it in 2018). Cockburn's decision to run for the House of Delegates in 2021 (District 22, against an incumbent, a race that she lost) deprived Democrats of what they thought would be the strongest candidate. However, Democrats did get a capable candidate in Charlottesville City Councilwoman Heather Hill. Hill ran a strong campaign, and hit Webert on multiple votes in the House of Delegates to ban sanctuary cities (plus introducing a similar bill in Congress, which didn't make it out of committee), as well as a State legislative vote to require life to begin at conception (Cockburn, by comparison, had instead tried to link him to Trump in 2020, which hadn't worked as well.). These tactics worked better than they really had any right to, and Webert didn't help his cause when at a debate in Charlottesville, he made statements that echoed President Trump's "there were bad people on both sides" comments, when asked about his thoughts on the Alt-Right (a topic that hadn't been brought up against Cockburn.) This misstep was enough for Democrats to pour significant sums of money into the race, and Hill ultimately won a major upset, 49.89-49.77.

Seventh Congressional District

With Eric Cantor's return to his old Congressional District, speculation swirled about a statewide campaign (Assuming Justin Fairfax was forced to resign or was expelled from the Senate, most political observers expected Cantor to get the Senate appointment, pending a special election. If Fairfax did not resign or was not expelled from the Senate, most observers of Virginia politics believed Cantor would run for the Senate in 2026, if not against Tim Kaine in 2024). However, first he had to get through reelection first, and just like the last time he lost in a primary (2014), he drew a challenge from his right, this time from a more high-profile candidate than Dave Brat had been, in State Delegate Nick Freitas. Unlike in 2014, Cantor wasn't caught napping in the primary, but Freitas drew endorsements from prominent groups and people on the right wing, such as the Club for Growth, and Steve Bannon. Cantor's more traditional Republican approach had earned him accolades, and while he hadn't really shifted much further to the right in his return to the House, he had done just enough to ensure a victory in the primary. Cantor won, dealing a setback for Freitas's career 50.1-49.9

Democrats were hoping Abigail Spanberger, who had lost a reelection bid to Cantor in 2020, would try to get this seat back. However, she chose to run for Governor in 2021 (finishing second, far behind the winner). Democrats now turned to Henrico County Supervisor Frank Thornton. Thornton was an older candidate, who did not seriously put the effort required into winning the race, and as a result, this was considered yet another recruiting failure for Democrats. Cantor won 54-44.9.

Tenth Congressional District

Despite the demographics of the seat moving away from them, Republicans wanted to beat Jennifer Wexton before she launched a statewide run. Their nominee was former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie, who had been the nominee for the Senate in 2014 (losing to Mark Warner) and for Governor in 2017 (losing to Ralph Northam). Gillespie had also served as Chair of the Virginia Republican Party, and was an adviser to George W. Bush when he was President. Most experts believed, even with the two statewide losses on his record Gillespie was a strong candidate, and everyone agreed that he was stronger than Corey Stewart, who had been the nominee in 2020, and gotten crushed. However, this was a district that was rapidly turning Democratic, and despite early polls that showed Gillespie in the lead, Wexton pulled ahead over the summer, and never really looked back from there, defeating Gillespie, 54-45.

Rhode Island

Governor

Allan Fung was running for a second and final term as Governor. Democrats expected to win the Governor's mansion back, as Fung's approval rating had never really climbed above 50% (though it was higher than where Gina Raimondo's was when she left office), and President Warren still had a positive approval rating here.

The Democratic Primary was crowded, with several candidates running. They were, Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza, Attorney General Peter Neronha (who had been elected in 2018), former State Representative John DeSimone, and State Representative Gregory Constantino.  The top two candidates all along were Elorza and Neronha. Elorza created waves when he suggested that Neronha should have found something to "frame" President Trump on as Attorney General of Rhode Island, creating a surge in progressive support, but a decline in support among many other Rhode Island voters. Ultimately Neronha won the primary with 32% of the vote, to 27% for Elorza, 21% for DeSimone and 20% for Constantino.

In the General Election, Fung started out behind by as much as thirty points (one Rasmussen survey taken shortly after the primaries had him trailing 59-29), but he quickly brought the race back to a dead heat, with support from the RGA, and chairperson Larry Hogan. Unfortunately, the hill was too high for him to climb, and that led to a Neronha victory 50-48.2, for the Democrats first gain in Gubernatorial races (against two for Republicans)

House of Representatives

Rhode Island was going from two Congressional Districts, to just one, which raised the specter of a bloody member vs member primary battle.

At-Large Congressional District

Gayle Goldin and Jim Langevin seemed headed for a member vs member primary battle, with Rhode Island's two districts being reduced to one. However, Langevin saved Goldin, and pretty much everyone else the trouble by deciding to run for Mayor of Providence instead, which was being vacated by Jorge Elorza's run for Governor. Langevin did not face a primary challenge, but he did face a general election fight from former Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian. Avedisian ran a largely positive issues-focused campaign, but he had been banking on a primary battle in the Democratic primary, and when none materialized, his chances at victory vanished. He still kept the race uncomfortably close for national Democrats, which was attributed to a Republican climate, but Goldin won 56-43.

[NewYorkExpress]

Massachusetts

Governor

Charlie Baker was a rare breed in politics, a Republican Governor in a state dominated by Democrats. Unfortunately, he'd managed to make his party angry with him, by appointing Lawrence Summers as interim Senator,pending the special election to Replace President Warren (which Democrat Suzanne Bump won). Still, Baker was eligible for a third term, and despite speculation he would not run and would instead run for President or for the Senate in 2024 (both of which drew denials from Baker), he chose to run for reelection.

Baker would not, however get off scot-free in the Republican Primary. He was a moderate, and his appointment of a Democrat, plus the signing of a bill that banned almost all guns from private citizens (the bill had the votes in the Massachusetts Legislature for a veto to be overridden anyways), meant that he was likely to get a serious primary challenge. In fact, he got two. They were, former Lieutenant Governor Jane Swift (who had served as acting Governor from April of 2001 until Mitt Romney's election in 2002) and Weymuth Mayor, Robert Hedlund. Neither Swift nor Hedlund really were conservatives in the sense of what conservatives were looking for, but they both were running to Baker's right (Swift even suggested she would have accepted the appointment to the Senate, had she been offered it). Ultimately, of the two primary challengers, Swift had the higher name recognition, and that proved to help her. At the same time, while Baker tried to attack her on her almost two year tenure as acting Governor, it didn't really pan out, and he struggled in the primary. Ultimately, Baker barely won the primary, with 41% of the vote, to Swift's 40% and Hedlund's 20%.

The Democrats, sensing an opportunity, had several people jump into the race. They were, Congressman Joe Kennedy III, former Congressman Stephen Lynch (making his second statewide run in two cycles, he'd lost the Senate race for the Senate seat Ed Markey was vacating in 2020), Boston Mayor Marty Walsh and State Representative Patricia Haddad.

After the Convention, in which Kennedy drew the most votes, but no candidate was eliminated, the primary truly began. It started out as everyone against Kennedy (at least according to Daily Kos, which endorsed Haddad, hitting Walsh as betraying the residents of Boston by running for reelection, then turning around and running for Governor, Lynch as too conservative (the same words they used in the 2020 Senate race, when they endorsed Ayanna Pressley), and Kennedy as "everything wrong with a Dynastic Political System like the Kennedy family"), but Kennedy retaliated by attacking Walsh as "more conservative than Governor Baker" (an attack that was largely true on social issues, and not true on economic issues), and Walsh as "backstabbing the people of Boston". The devastating attacks propelled Kennedy to victory with 35% of the vote, to 29% for Walsh, 20% for Lynch and 16% for Haddad.

In the General Election, Baker started off by continuing to attack Kennedy for advancing "dynasty politics". Kennedy turned that attack around at a debate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, by saying that Baker himself was a product of dynastic politics (His Great-Grandfather had been a member of the New York State Assembly, his Grandfather had been a prominent Massachusetts politician, and his father had served in several positions in the Nixon and Reagan Administrations). Ultimately, there were two decisive factors in the election. One, was the continued anger of the conservative base at Baker, while the other, was the Independent candidacy of venture capitalist Jeffrey McCormick, who had previously mounted an Independent campaign in 2014 (and finished last among declared candidates). Kennedy ended up winning with 46.2% of the vote, to 44.5% for Baker and 9% for McCormick, for the Democrats second Gubernatorial gain (against two for Republicans).

House of Representatives

Massachusetts neither gained nor lost a Congressional seat in redistricting, and the resulting map was essentially an incumbent protection map (even with Joe Kennedy III running for Governor)

Fourth Congressional District

With Joe Kennedy III running for Governor, most expected a crowded primary for Democrats. Ultimately, only a pair of candidates ran here. They were, State Representative Carole Fiola and Former U.S Attorney Carmen Ortiz. Ortiz had the higher profile, and had the endorsement of most progressive groups (most notably Daily Kos), but she did not live in the district. Fiola continually pounded her for her weak ties to the district. Ortiz was able, however, to swamp Fiola in money and on the airwaves (outraising her $8,675,347 to $995,894) meaning that she would end up with an easy primary victory, 61-39.

Republicans did not target this district, and Ortiz did not face a general election opponent in November.

Sixth Congressional District

After Seth Moulton's open filrtation with a Presidential run in 2020, he openly flirted with bids for Governor and Secretary of the Commonwealth (the equivalent of Secretary of State in other states), before deciding to run for reelection. Unfortunately for him, his district ended up on the Republicans target list, as it remained just on the edge of competitive for them. Their nominee was former Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey. Healy had previously run twice for State House seats in Essex County, where the district was largely centered, but this was almost twenty-five years prior. Still Healey was considered a strong candidate, especially given the Republican year, as she attacked Moulton for neglecting his district. Still, Healey had started off just too far behind in the polls, and she ultimately lost 50-49, for a vital Democratic hold.

[NewYorkExpress]

Connecticut

Governor

Bob Stefanowski was another moderate Republican Governor from New England who had the opportunity to run for reelection in 2022. Unlike Charlie Baker, who had angered his base and lost, Stefanowski didn't do anything to truly make his base angry. Also unlike Baker, Stefanowski chose to not to run for reelection, instead choosing to run for the Senate. This left the Governor's Mansion open.

On the Republican side, three candidates ran. They were, Lieutenant Governor Joe Markley, New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart and State Representative Themis Klarides. Markley had been a low-key Lieutenant Governor, and most voters didn't know who he was, while this was Stewart's second statewide campaign, and as the State House Minority Leader, Klarides was well known statewide. Ultimately, Klarides won the primary with 42% of the vote to 29% for Markely and 29% for Stewart.

On the Democrats side, three candidates ran for the open seat. They were former Bridgeport Mayor Bill Finch, former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (who had been the nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018) and former Attorney General George Jepsen. In many ways Democrats considered this field a major recruiting failure, as none of the candidates were able to raise significant sums of money (Bysiewicz raised the most at $11,088,908, which wasn't really enough to compete when most of state was in the New York City Media Market). Bysiewicz and Jepsen had the most name recognition and they did the best, with Bysiewicz winning the primary with 55% of the vote to Jepsen's 39% and Finch's 6%.

In the General Election, Democrats lamented seemed to give up on picking up the seat, all but abandoning Bysiewicz, who lost 52-46.

Senate

Richard Blumenthal was considered a possible retirement candidate, as his fundraising was slow in mid 2021, but after Patrick Leahy's retirement, DSCC chairman Xavier Becerra convinced convinced Blumenthal to run for third term.

Governor Bob Stefanowski filed for Republicans, and the field quickly cleared for him. The race between Blumenthal and Stefanowski became one of the most expensive in the country, and one of the most bitter with Stefanowski attacking Blumenthal for suing the Big East when they were seeking new members to add to the ACC saying that "UConn could have been one of those members", and comments made in a 2019 Senate hearing (which drew laughter from other Democrats and ridicule from Republicans) about the threat from UFO's, while Blumenthal attacked Stefanowski as a vote for constitutional amendments banning abortion and same-sex marriage, as well as legalized massacres in the streets. Ultimately, while the Republican wave in 2010 hadn't beaten Blumenthal, he hadn't been an incumbent at the time, and Stefanowski was a stronger candidate than Linda McMahon was in 2010 (or in 2012 against Chris Murphy). Stefanowski won 51-48, for the Republicans second pickup in the Senate.

House of Representatives

Connecticut neither gained nor lost a seat in redistricting, and only minor changes were made to the map.

First Congressional District

John Larson opted to retire after over twenty years in Congress. Democrats had two candidates running for the seat. They were, Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin and Windsor Locks Selectman Michelle Hill. Bronin had the clear name recognition advantage, and never really was challenged in the primary, winning 69-31.

Republicans did not field a candidate for this safely Democratic seat.

Third Congressional District

For the Third Cycle in a row, Republicans targeted Joe Courtney. This time, their nominee was New London City Councilwoman Stacy Gould. Republicans were hoping Gould would succeed where 2020 nominee Peter Falk had failed, but she proved to be a poor fundraiser, only bringing in $679,678, which was below Falks's 2018 total of $2,109,980. Courtney again won easily 58-41.

Fifth Congressional District

Republicans targeted Jahana Hayes in 2022. They originally wanted Erin Stewart to make a second attempt at winning the seat, but she chose to run for Governor instead. Instead they had a competitive primary between Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton and State Representative Rosa Rebimbas. Boughton, who had run for Governor in 2018, was better known, but Rebimbas was the preferred choice of national Republicans. Still Boughton was able to win the primary 51-49.

In the General Election, Boughton was able to basically ride the Republican wave to a narrow victory, 49.9-49.1, for the sixth gain for Republicans (against two gains for Democrats).

[NewYorkExpress]

Mississppi

Mississippi had no top-ballot election in 2022, and everyone in the state had their attention on the Governor's race, where several Republicans where making motions to challenge Jim Hood, who was planning to run for a second term.

House of Representatives

Mississippi neither gained nor lost a seat in redistricting, and Republicans in the legislature and Governor Hood came to an agreement on a plan that largely protected the incumbents in the legislature.

Interestingly Mississippi was one of the few states where none of the Congressional seats were competitive (Trent Kelly, Chokwe Lumumba,  and Steven Palazzo recieved no opposition at all), nor did any incumbent file for another office.

New Jersey

House of Representatives

Sheila Oliver's close win in 2021, plus the modest Republican gains in the state legislature had given Democrats cause for concern in House races here. The redistricting map didn't help them much, as it didn't shore up any one incumbent by any particular margin.

First Congressional District

One of the bosses of New Jersey politics, Donald Norcross resigned on June 7, 2021 to become Deputy Secretary of Labor (he had been confirmed in the Senate 52-47), setting up a special election, which was held shortly before election day.

In the Special Election, the two candidates (neither of whom were running in the general election) were the Democrats nominee, Clementon Freeholder Holly Strobl and 2016 Republican nominee Bob Patterson. Patterson won the low-turnout special election 51-49, for a Republican flip, and an early clue that Democrats would not hold the House.

In the General Election, Republicans didn't field a candidate, so Democrats were a lock to flip this seat back. They did have to scramble to find a nominee, because of the timing of Norcross's resignation (a state judge ruled that the filing period could be reopened and the primary was to be pushed back to September), and they ultimately could only come up with a single candidate, Glouscester Mayor Daniel Spencer who won 96-4, against the Libertarian nominee, Robert Shaprio.

Second Congressional District

Democrats targeted Brian Rumpf in his bid for reelection. They didn't have a candidate of the same quality as Jeff Van Drew, and this was the second most Republican district in New Jersey, even after redistricting.  They had a contested primary between Monclair State university professor Brigid Callahan Harrison (who had run for a State Senate seat in 2021 and lost), Atlantic City Administrator Stephanie Bush-Baskette and Salem County Freeholder Charles Hassler. Callahan Harrison raised the most money and earned several high profile endorsements (including Sheila Oliver), and ultimately won the primary with 47% of the vote, to 36% for Bush-Baskette and 27% for Hassler.

In the General Election, the big story, was Hassler, who had finished third in the Democratic Primary, deciding to endorse the Republican incumbent Rumpf. Even so, while this was a Republican wave, Rumpf had caused waves in the district by proposing a ban on casino gambling in the United States during the Autumn of 2021 (neither Pelosi nor Kevin McCarthy would let that bill come to the House floor), and his constituents, of which the New Jersey Casino mecca Atlantic City was included wouldn't let him forget it. Bush-Baskette won, 51-48 for the Democrats third gain (against six for Republicans)

Third Congressional District

For the second straight cycle, Republicans targeted Andy Kim. They'd struggled with a weak nominee in 2020, and it looked like that would be the case again in 2022, as the best they could do this time was their lone candidate, Christian musician Jeremy Riddle, struggled to raise money (he only raised $1,044,898, which was practically nothing for a district that covered both the New York City and Philadelphia media markets). While he got some help from the NRCC, that 2020 nominee John Hadash had never really gotten, he didn't get enough, and as a result, Kim hung on for a vital 49-48 victory.

Fifth Congressional District

For the third straight cycle, Republicans targeted Josh Gottheimer. Republicans had a primary fight between state Representative Parker Space and State Assemblyman John DiMaio. Space got hammered, both by DiMaio's campaign, and by Gottheimer, on being "lost cause Southerner" because he'd posed in front a Confederate flag in 2017, while DiMaio got hit for being a former Democrat by Space. Ultimately, DiMaio won the bitter primary 52-47.

In the general election, the bitter Republican Primary, coupled with Space's refusal to endorse DiMaio, led to his defeat, as Gottheimer held the seat for Democrats 53-46.

Sixth Congressional District

Frank Pallone had narrowly avoided a primary challenge in 2020. However, he was not so lucky in 2022, as two Democrats challenged him in the primary. They were, the founder and editor-in-chief of Muslimgirl.com Amani al-Khatabeh (who had been floated by Governor Oliver as the newly created Office of Immigrant Protection, a project of former Governor Murphy's, but had declined, as she was not an immigrant) and Former Secretary of the Air Force, Deborah Lee James.

Pallone got into trouble immediatley when a surrogate at a fundraiser called Al-Khatabeh a "terrorist", which Pallone quickly denounced, and then compounded the problem by accusing James of supporting war with Russia (to which James replied "If war is the only way to make Russia understand that meddling in our elections has consequences, than so be it"). Ultimately, Al-Khatabeh won the primary with 37% of the vote, to 36% for Pallone and 27% for James.

Republicans noting the chaos in the Democratic Primary, put the district on the target map in Mid-June, and nominated former State Senator Jennifer Beck. Beck wasn't considered a particularly strong candidate on her own in this district, but after a chaotic Democratic Primary, she had a real shot at winning, and polls taken throughout July and August showed her within striking distance.  Unfortunately, Beck's campaign also fell victim to negative campaigning, when a September ad compared Muslimgirl.com to Al Qaeda's Inspire Magazine, causing loud condemnation from Democrats across the political spectrum. Al-Khatabeh won in November as a result, 59-39.9.

Seventh Congressional District

For the second consecutive cycle, Republicans targeted Tom Malinowski. Their 2020 nominee Alison Littell McHose had been strong on paper, and they hoped to get an even stronger nominee in 2022. However, their only candidate, former State Senator Marcia Karrow, was not that strong a candidate. She'd been out of elected office since 2009, and she struggled to raise money (only $298,879, which didn't endear her to the NRCC at all. By comparison Littell McHose in 2020 had raised $909,897, also not impressive, but better than Karrow's take). As a result, Karrow, despite still doing well in the polls,was triaged shortly before Labor Day. Malinowski won 55-44.7,for another key Democratic hold.

Eleventh Congressional District

For the second consecutive cycle Mikie Sherrill was a Republican target. Unlike the other Republican targets in New Jersey, Republicans neither had a competitive primary nor a weak challenger.

The Republican nominee, State Senator Thomas Kean Jr., was the strongest possible nominee Republicans could get, having turned down Gubernatorial bids in 2017 and 2021, and for both Senate seats in 2020. He lived in the District, and was the Minority Leader of the State Assembly. Kean held wide leads in polling throughout the race, and despite the polls narrowing as November drew closer, Sherrill just was too far behind to catch up. As a result, Kean won 52-47, for the Republican's seventh gain (against three for the Democrats).

[NewYorkExpress]

North Carolina

Senate

Richard Burr had long made clear his plans to retire (though he held the door open for either a run for President or Governor in 2024), leaving Republicans with an open seat for the second consecutive cycle.

The Republican Primary consisted of several candidates. They were, former Governor Pat McCrory (he'd run for Governor in 2020 and lost the primary to Thom Tillis), Congressman Mark Meadows, State Senator Phil Berger, former Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest (he'd also run for Governor in 2020, and lost the primary to Tllis) and former State Representative Holly Grange (who had been the Republican nominee in 2020 for Lieutenant Governor-she lost in the General Election). Almost all observers believed that the race would end up in a runoff, however, Meadows took the lead in polling when he pledged to vote to "remove both Warren and Cortez Masto from office and install a Republican Speaker of the House as President", something no other Republican in the race was willing to do. Meadows still couldn't quite avoid a runoff, only getting 29.89% of the vote in the primary, to 21.27% for Berger, 20.04% for McCrory, 19.7% for Forest and 8.7% for Grange.

In the runoff, Meadows secured endorsements from Grange and Forest, to balance out Berger's endorsements from most National Groups, (the NRSCC had endorsed McCrory and stayed neutral in the runoff), McCrory, and the rest of the Republican delegation in North Carolina (except for Walter Jones, who did not endorse in either the primary or the runoff), and raised more money ($5,089,878 total for both the primary and runoff to Berger's $4,678,788) to win the runoff 54-46.

Democrats failed to get any of their top three candidates (Governor Anthony Foxx, Lieutenant Governor Cal Cunningham or Attorney General Josh Stein) to run, so they ended up with the B-team of candidates and had a contested primary in their own right.

Their primary consisted of, former Congressman Heath Shuler, former Charlotte Mayor Jennifer Roberts and former Lieutenant Governor Dennis Wicker.

Each of the three Democrats had major flaws. Wicker hadn't run for elected office since losing the primary for Governor in 2000, Roberts had left office as Mayor unpopular, and Shuler was not popular with the progressive base (Daily Kos reluctantly endorsed Roberts, but said that "all the candidates were bad"). Shuler, however, raised the most money ($6,075,000 to Roberts's $2,097,059, and Wicker's $989,986) and earned the endorsement of Senator Cooper, getting him a primary victory with 51% of the vote to Roberts's 26% and Wicker's 23%.

In the General Election, most experts predicted Republicans would hold the seat, especially given the pro-Republican climate. However, Shuler, and the DSCC (which didn't endorse him until after the primary) consistently attacked Meadows as an extremist, and those attacks successfully drove down his poll numbers. As a result, Shuler won what was considered to be a significant upset 49-46, with Libertarian nominee Tracey DeBruhl earning 4.6% of the vote.

House of Representatives

North Carolina had gained a seat in 2020's redistricting. While Democrats had made modest gains and controlled the Governor's mansion, that didn't really stop Republicans from putting in their own map.

Second Congressional District

The Second Congressional District had been made slightly more Republican again. Even so, Democrats chose to target it, and incumbent Chad Barefoot.

Former Congreswoman Linda Coleman ran in the Democratic Primary, but she faced a primary challenge from Wake County Commissioner Matt Calabria. Calabria outraised Coleman (who for the first time struggled with fundraising, she only raised $1,090,675, to Calabria's $3,785,000), and showed a better knowledge of the district. It didn't help her case that she'd previously had to be persuaded to retire because she'd Nancy Pelosi a "West Coast Hippie". Calabria won the primary, 53-47.

In the general election, Barefoot had the advantage of a Republican District, in a Republican year, but Calabria was able to give him a race, holding the incumbent to a 54-45 victory.

Third Congressional District

Walter Jones's original intention was to run for another term here. However, in September of 2021, he was diagnosed with ALS or Lou Gehrig's Disease and was forced to announce his retirement (he would die three days before the new Congress was sworn in).

This seat remained a safely Republican seat, and even before Jones announced his retirement, several Republicans had been mulling candidacies against him.

The Republicans running were, State Representative Michael Speciale, former State Representative Beverly Boswell and New Bern Mayor Dana Outlaw. Boswell had lost the Republican primary for her State House seat in 2018 because she'd been told to stop portraying herself as a nurse, while Outlaw was relatively unknown and had trouble raising money (though New Bern was one of the larger cities in the district, Outlaw could only manage to scrounge together $356,079, a pittance compared to Boswell's $1,890,000 and Speciale's $4,679,500). Speciale won the primary, with 56% of the vote, to Boswell's 29% and Outlaw's 15%.

Democrats didn't seriously target this district. They did however, field a candidate here, Ahoskie Town Councilman Roy Sharp. However Sharp, because this was a safe district, got no outside backing or support from national Democrats, and lost to Speciale, 60-39.

Fourth Congressional District

After thirty-five years in public service, David Price made the decision to retire.

This district remained safely Democratic, meaning the Democratic Primary was where all of the excitement would be.

Democrats had a contested primary between Durham Mayor Steve Schewel, Utilities Commissioner Floyd McKissick (Appointed in 2020 by Roy Cooper), and former Professional Basketball player Kris Lang (who spent four years at UNC-Chapel Hill, as a Center, but no longer lived in the district.) The primary quickly took on racial overtones, as both Schewel and Lang were white, as was Price, whereas McKissick was African-American, however all three candidates tried to keep things civil. The candidate under the most pressure was Lang, who had to constantly fend off charges that he didn't actually live in North Carolina. Ultimately, Daily Kos and the DSCC's endorsements of McKissick made the difference here, as he won the primary with 49% of the vote, to 38% for Schewel and 13% for Lang.

Despite the seat being strongly Democratic, Republicans didn't completely punt on it, recruiting Person County Commissioner Kyle Puryear. Despite Congressman Mark Walker's home being in this district, he chose to run elsewhere.

McKissick defeated Puryear 61-39 in November.

Fifth Congressional District

Virginia Foxx opted to retire rather than run for reelection. Mark Walker, whose district had been made significantly more Democratic (in fact, almost unwinnable) in redistricting, elected to run here, but he faced a primary challenge from Eden City Councilman Phillip Hunnicutt. Despite having to carpetbag into the district, Walker was popular here, while Hunnicutt was never able to raise enough money to get his name out (he only raised $298,000 to Walker's $4,087,000). As a result, Walker won the primary 77-23.

Democrats ended up nominating 2014 and 2016 nominee Josh Brannon, but he had no real chance at victory. Walker won 69-30.

Eighth Congressional District

The Eighth had turned from being moderately Republican to slightly Democratic, and as such, Democrats had Richard Hudson on their target list. Despite speculation that Hudson would run statewide (he considered a Senate bid, but deferred to Mark Meadows), Hudson filed for reelection.

Multiple Democrats filed for the right to take on Hudson. They were, Cary Mayor Harold Weinbrecht (he had been the Democrats nominee in the old Second Congressional District in 2020, and lost to Chad Barefoot), former Associate Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, Patricia Timmons- Goodson and State Representative Garland Pierce. Progressives quickly rallied around Weinbrecht and Timmons-Goodson (Weinbrecht had adopted relatively progressive positions in his 2020 campaign, while Timmons-Goodson had been an Obama District Court nominee), while they despised Pierce, who had been one of eleven Democrats in the state House to vote in favor of North Carolina's infamous "Bathroom Bill", and the other two Democrats running wouldn't let him forget it. Ultimately, Timmons-Goodson won the primary with 44% of the vote, to 41% for Weinbrecht and 15% for Pierce.

Timmons-Goodson pummeled Hudson for being a vote for Republican extremism, and attempted to tie him to the continuing corruption of the North Carolina legislature (They'd attempted to pass a constitutional amendment that removed the Governor's power to veto legislation, but it ran aground in the State Senate). Hudson did have the advantage of being in a pro-Republican climate, but this was now a Democratic district, if only just, and Timmons-Goodson was a strong candidate. She won, 50-48.54, for the fourth gain for Democrats (against seven for Republicans).

Eleventh Congressional District

The Eleventh Congressional District had shifted a point or two back towards Democrats, and despite speculation that Heath Shuler would run for his old Congressional Seat, he chose to mount a successful bid for the Senate instead.

Republicans had to deal with the fact that the incumbent, Mark Meadows chose to mount a Senate bid, that ended in defeat.

They had a primary between State Representative David Rogers and former State Representative Mike Clampitt. This primary broke down on factional lines, with Clampitt as the moderate, and Rogers as the conservative. Here, as in many other Republican primaries, the more conservative candidate won, as Rogers defeated Clampitt 55-45.

Democrats, failing to convince Shuler to run, also had a contested primary, between State Representative Joe Sam Queen (who had just barely won in 2020) and former Asheville Mayor Terry Bellamy. Bellamy was better known in the district (but only just) and won the primary 52-48.

In the general, the race didn't start out as competitive, but the polls quickly narrowed, as Bellamy caught up in the money race (she raised a total of $6,789,000 to Rogers's $6,791,000), and the polls (a late October poll from PPP showed her up 44-43, while a poll in the similar timeframe from Civiqus showed a tied race, 45-45). However, the Republican climate, led Clampitt to a victory 51-49.

Fourteenth Congressional District

The Fourteenth Congressional District was the new North Carolina District, and it was strongly Democratic, and based solely out of Wake County.

Democrats had a crowded primary with several candidates running. They were, Wake County Commissioner Jessica Holmes, former Raleigh Mayor Nancy McFarlene (she declined to run for reelection in 2019, then chose to run for Lieutenant Governor in 2020, losing in the Primary), State Senator Jay Chaudhuri and State Representative Julie Von Haefen.

McFarlane quickly got into trouble for switching from being an Independent to being a Democrat for political expediency, and never really recovered from attacks on that from Von Haefen and Holmes. Chaudhuri meanwhile, got into trouble after retweeting several controversial comments from Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi. Ultimately, Holmes won the primary with 42% of the vote to 36% for Von Haefen, 14% for McFarlane and 8% for Chaudhuri.

In the General Election, Republicans recruited former Professional Basketball player Shavlik Randolph. Randolph had to fight allegations that he didn't live in the district or in North Carolina, and in any event, Republicans didn't provide him with any help. Holmes won the seat 70-30 (This technically was a Democratic gain).

[NewYorkExpress]

New York

Governor

Andrew Cuomo was seeking what would be would be an impressive fourth term in office. As in 2014 and 2018, he faced a primary challenge from his left. Despite rumblings early in 2021 that Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez would run, she chose not to. Instead, Cuomo faced two challengers. Former New York City Councilman Brad Lander (who was term-limited out of office in 2021) and Former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion Jr.

This was the first time Cuomo had been hit with a primary challenge by a current or former elected official,and as in 2018, the influential Working Families Party did not endorse him, instead choosing to endorse Carrion Jr. However, Cuomo, by the time of the primary, had stockpiled a massive warchest of money ($38,975,000 to Carrion Jr's $4,000,000 and Lander's $2,379,000) and won the primary easily, with 61% of the vote to Carrion Jr's 24% and Lander's 15%

Cuomo faced the Republican nominee, businessman Harry Wilson (who had been the nominee for Comptroller in 2010). Wilson was, like Cuomo's primary opponents, swamped by Cuomo's monetary advantage (Cuomo, by the time of the general election had raised $67,095,000 to Wilson's $18,050,000) and despite it being a Republican year nationally, was unable to make much of a dent in Cuomo's lead. Cuomo won the fourth term his father was denied 54-39, with Carrion Jr picking up 6.9% of the vote on the Working Families Party line.

Senate

Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, was widely considered unassailable, even as his party headed closer to the minority. He did pick up a primary challenge from Comedian Sam Seder, but Schumer easily dispatched him 71-29.

Republicans were not expected to seriously fight for this seat, and in what was seemingly an effort to show that, they nominated businessman Donald Trump Jr, son of former President Donald Trump. Trump Jr really didn't fit New York's values at all, and whatever dim hopes of Republicans winning the seat vanished. Schumer won 80-19.

House of Representatives

New York lost two Congressional Districts in redistricting. Traditionally, the plan in New York has always been to eliminate one downstate district and one upstate district. Originally it was thought the elimination of Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez's district would be paired with an upstate district, but progressives both inside and outside of Albany rallied to save Ocasio-Cortez's district. Instead, the redistricting paired Kathleen Rice and Tom Suozzi's districts on Long Island, and Dana Balter's and Anthony Brindisi's districts (which took a bit of juggling to make work) upstate.

First Congressional District

Perry Gershon had knocked off Lee Zeldin in 2018, then defeated Daniel Losquadro by an even bigger margin in 2020. However, a Republican wave seemed to be incoming, and Republicans thought they had the perfect candidate to face Gershon in former Suffolk County Legislator Tom Climi. However Climi was a paper tiger. He wasn't a good fundraiser (he only raised $776,000, compared to Gershon's $8,078,000) and didn't debate well. Gershon survived the wave 51-49, for a Democratic hold.

Second Congressional District

The Second Congressional District had lost all of it's Nassau County territory. Fortunately for Steve Bellone, his Babylon home remained in the district.

Republicans had a multiway primary to face Bellone. The combatants were former Congressman Rick Lazio and State Senator Phil Boyle. Lazio hadn't run for elected office in over a decade (since losing the nomination for Governor in 2010) and he seemed rusty, while Boyle was sharp and on point on the issues. However, the NRCC backed Lazio, and here that endorsement made all the difference. Lazio won the primary 52-48.

In the general election, the Republican wave was contrasted against the strong coattails provided by Schumer and Cuomo. However,on Long Island, the wave was somewhat stronger, and as a result, Lazio won 51-49 for the eighth gain for Republicans (against four for Democrats)

Third Congressional District

This was now an all-Nassau County district, even including the portions of Inwood, Valley Stream and Elmont that had been in the Fifth District. This had become a more safe Democratic District now.

Despite speculation that Kathleen Rice was going to avoid the member vs member primary and run for Attorney General, or that Tom Suozzi would do the same and run for Governor, both filed to run for reelection setting up a primary battle.

Both attacked the other's ambition (Before Warren's victory, Rice had been mentioned on many "First Female President lists), and both received numerous endorsements from inside the New York delegation (Senator Gillibrand backed Rice, Schumer didn't endorse, the Congressmen split relatively evenly). However, Rice had the endorsement of the Working Families Party, and was able to ride that to a primary victory 53-47.

In the General Election, Rice faced Nassau County Legislator Thomas McKevitt. McKevitt was a strong candidate who probably would have in a more Republican year, or in this year with no strong candidates at the top of the ballot like Schumer and Cuomo to drag his opponent over the line. Rice won 50.2-49.8 for a key Democratic hold.

Fifth Congressional District

This District had lost Inwood, and it's portions of Valley Stream and Elmont to the Fourth District.

While it remained plurality African American, it was no longer certain an African American candidate would be nominated. The incumbent Gregory Meeks, opted to retire.

Democrats had a primary between State Senator Leroy Comrie and former New York City Councilman Donovan Richards. Comrie held the lead through the early going, but Richards took the lead closer to primary and won 52-48.

Republicans did not field a candidate, and Richards again beat Comrie, now running on the Working Families Party line, 71-29.

Sixth Congressional District

On February 2, Grace Meng was nominated by President Warren as Ambassador to China (the previous Ambassador, former Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell had resigned in December 2019, saying he could not handle having "two masters"). With her confirmation on May 7 (64-29), a special election was needed. Governor Cuomo set the date of the Special Election for Tuesday, September 10.

In the special, Democrats nominated former New York City Councilman Paul Vallone (term limited out in 2021) while Republicans nominated former New York City Councilman Michael Abel. Vallone won the special 63-37.

In November, Vallone, who had entered the race the same day as the fiftieth Senator (which was Kirsten Simena) announced their support for Meng, defeated 2020 nominee Thomas Zmich 69-31.

Tenth Congressional District

Jerry Nadler's decision to retire left National Democrats surprised.

There was a competitive primary to succeed Nadler between, former New York City Councilman Chaim Deutsch (term limited out after 2021), entrepreneur and 2020 Presidential candidate Andrew Yang, former New York City Councilwoman Helen Rosenthal (term-limited out of office in 2021) and former Advertising Executive Holly Lynch.

Despite all presumptions that the primary would be a close affair, Yang's national profile dominated the race, and he easily won the primary with 57% of the vote to Rosenthal's 18%, Deutsch's 14%and Lynch's 11%.

Republicans did not nominate a candidate here.

Eleventh Congressional District

Republicans targeted this district, and Nicole Malliotakis was abandoning it to run as Harry Wilson's running mate (the ticket lost).

Democrats nominated City Councilwoman Deborah Rose (term-limited out in 2021)

Republicans meanwhile, nominated New York City Councilman Joseph Borelli.

Despite strong efforts from Democrats to retake the seat, Staten Island had drifted sharply to the right as the Warren Administration went on, and Borelli ended up holding the seat for Republicans 57-43.

Fifteenth Congressional District

Following a 2021 diagnosis of Parkinson's disease, Jose Serrano announced he would retire.

Filing to replace him were, former New York City Councilwoman Melissa Mark-Viverto, former New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres (Term-Limited in 2021), former New York City Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez (term limited in 2021), and State Assemblyman Michael Blake. Mark-Viverto came under renewed criticism for her links to Puerto Rican terrorists, the issue that had derailed her candidacy for Mayor in 2021, and the main beneficiary, was Torres, who won the primary with 34% of the vote to 27% for Rodriguez, 26% for Blake and 13% for Mark-Viverto.

Republicans did not run a candidate in the general election.

Seventeenth Congressional District

Nita Lowey opted to retire

Democrats were expected to have a crowded primary, but the field cleared for State Senator David Carlucci.

Republicans were not expected to put this seat in play, but they got an unexpected gift when former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino announced he would run. Astornio's campaign quickly turned Republican hopes sour, however, when attack ads about his role in Norman Seabrook investigation were run. As a result, Carlucci won 57-43.

Eighteenth Congressional District

Once again Republicans targeted Sean Patrick Maloney. This time, their nominee was Orange County Supervisor Steve Neihaus.

Neihaus was arguably a stronger candidate than Ginny Nacerino had been two years prior, but he faced tough headwinds atop the ballot. As a result, Maloney won the seat 55-45, for a key hold.

Nineteenth Congressional District

Republicans again targeted Antonio Delgado. This time Republicans nominated Ulster County Legislator Kenneth Ronk Jr. Ronk Jr. didn't run a strong campaign, and with strong headwinds against him, he lost to Delgado 56-44, for another hold for Democrats.

Twenty First Congressional District

Daniel Stec had defeated Tedra Cobb in 2020. However, Cobb was back for a rematch in 2022.

While she had great momentum atop the ballot, President Warren even less popular in her district than she had been in 2020, and as a result Stec won reelection 54-46.

Twenty Second Congressional District

Anthony Brindisi and Dana Balter were paired together in a member vs member showdown. Yet again, the delegation was divided (Gillibrand endorsed Balter, Schumer remained neutral). Brindisi however, proved to be the stronger incumbent, as he won the primary 53-47.

The District was designed to be a "fair fight" district, and awaiting Brindisi in the general election was former Congressman John Katko. Katko, who had lost to Balter in 2018, wasn't particularly helped by the headwinds caused by Schumer and Cuomo's victories. However, the Republican wave did help him, and he ultimately won in November 50-49, for a Republican gain, their ninth (to four for Democrats)

[NewYorkExpress]

Louisiana

Senate

Despite speculation that John Kennedy would step aside and run for Governor in 2023, he chose to run for reelection.

National Democrats spent most of 2021 working to get the incumbent Governor, John Bel Edwards, into the race, and they succeeded when he announced he would run shortly after New Year's Day, 2022. Bel Edwards's presence in the race scared out all other notable Democrats, and no other prominent Republicans filed.

Bel Edwards was able to successfully separate himself from an unpopular Warren Presidency, much like Mitch Landrieu had done in 2020 to come within a point of defeating Bill Cassidy. In 2022, however, Warren's approval ratings were worse (39-57 in 2022, as opposed to 44-51 according to CNN exit polls), however, Bel Edwards was more conservative than Landrieu and was better able to position himself as a check on a Warren Presidency.

The final outcome of all of this, would be another month of campaigning, as  Bel Edwards led after the jungle primary, 49.68-49.38. Most political observers believed that Kennedy would win in the runoff (with the exception of James Carville on MSNBC and S.E Cupp on CNN, both of whom claimed that Kennedy had lost the election by failing to put Bel Edwards away in the first round in the first round. Not a single one of their fellow commentators, on either side of the aisle agreed with them.)

House of Representatives

Louisiana neither gained or lost a seat in redistricting, and passed what mostly were incumbent protection maps.

Second Congressional District

Cedric Richmond wasn't expected to lose reelection to a Republican, but he'd annoyed political leaders in New Orleans, after he called for the Sugar Bowl to leave New Orleans after a bribery scandal broke out between bowl executives and members of Mayor LaToya Cantrell's staff (over $24,000,000 changed hands).

As a result, multiple New Orleans based Democrats challenged Richmond. They were, State Senator Karen Carter Peterson, Former New Orleans City Councilman Arnie Fielkow and 2016 Candidate Gary Landrieu.

All three opponents attacked him on the Sugar Bowl issue, saying it wasn't Congress's place to weigh in (though Landrieu did call for Cantrell's resignation over the scandal). However, Richmond said he'd been an effective Congressman, and hit his two primary opponents, Peterson and Fielkow on two separate issues. He attacked Peterson for continuing to serve as chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party while running for Congress, saying that Louisiana Democrats needed a fulltime Party Chair and that New Orleans needed a fulltime Congressperson, while he attacked Fielkow for doing the bare minimum for retired NBA players during his tenure as President and CEO of the National Basketball Retired Player's Association, a charge made in an ad that was deemed so false that multiple retired NBA players attacked it, as did Fielkow.

Still, the attacks worked, as Richmond won in the first round with 51% of the vote, to 30% for Fielkow, 15% and 4% for Landrieu.

Fifth Congressional District

Steve Pylant had decided fairly early on he wasn't going to run for another term. He announced he would not run for reelection on December 16, 2021, and one month later became the first notable candidate on either side to file for Lieutenant Governor (it was worth noting the incumbent, Billy Nungesser, even if he wasn't elevated to Governor by a John Bel Edwards victory in the Senate race, was likely to run for Governor in 2023 anyways.).

Several notable candidates filed to replace him. They were, former State Senator Neil Riser (Republican), former State Representative Lance Harris (Republican), Pointe Coupee Parish President Major Thibaut (Democrat) and former State Representative Terry Brown (Independent). Thibaut didn't live or represent any part of the district, and was regularly derided as a carpetbagger. Meanwhile, Brown, who had been polling in a close third got into political trouble when he refused to say what party he would caucus with should he be elected (though most assumed it would be the Republicans). He was also the oldest candidate in the field, turning 76 in August 2022, his mental agility was questioned by local newspapers.

Most political observers saw this race as going to a runoff between Riser and Harris. However, Riser won without the need for an extra month of campaigning, earning 53% of the vote, to 18% for Harris, 17% for Thibaut and 12% for Brown.


Nebraska

Governor

Pete Ricketts was term-limited, and despite Warren's victory in the Omaha based Second Congressional District, Republicans believed they could win easily.

The Republican Primary was between former Senator Ben Sasse (who had lost his primary in 2020), former Senator (Governor and U.S Secretary of Agriculture) Mike Johanns, former Treasurer (and Attorney General) Don Stenberg and former Nebraska State Senator Jim Scheer.

By this point, Stenberg's repeated attempts to get into higher office (or Federal office, He'd been the Republican nominee in the Second Congressional District in 2020) were getting somewhat comical, and he quickly fell behind in the polls, Sasse weathered attacks on his refusal to support President Trump, while Johanns got attacked for statements he'd recently made on the Big Ten Network (while campaigning to college students in Nebraska), stating that NCAA student-athletes were either students or athletes and by definition could not be both.  Sasse ultimately won the Primary with 31% of the vote, to Johanns's 29%, Scheer's 27% and Stenberg's 23% (most of the undecided voters in the primary ended up breaking for Stenberg, he'd been polling as poorly as 9% in the days before the primary)

Democrats also had a contested primary, between former State Senator Bob Krist (who had been the nominee in 2018), Congresswoman Kara Eastman and former Lincoln Mayor Don Wesley.

Wesley had been out of elected office 2003, and was now a lobbyist, and never really got any traction in the race, making it a two horse battle between Eastman and Krist. Krist attacked Eastman as being too liberal for a Nebraska statewide race, but the attacks didn't really resonate with the audience. What did stick, was Eastman slammed Krist, a former Republican, for being a turncoat. She won the primary with 49% of the vote to 29% for Krist and 22% for Wesley.

In the General, Sasse painted Eastman as too liberal for Nebraska, while Eastman tried attack Sasse as someone who would be a "Trumpian dictator". As Sasse had never really been much of an ally of Trump's Eastman's attacks didn't stick, and Sasse won 59-39.

House Of Representatives

Nebraska neither gained nor lost a Congressional Seat in 2022, and the district map was designed weaken Democrats hold over the Second District, by adding neighboring precincts (namely, the rest of Sarpy County) from the First District.

Second Congressional District

With Kara Eastman vacating the seat on an unsuccessful campaign for Governor, Democrats would need a nominee who could hold this swing district. They chose to nominate Omaha City Councilman Pete Festersen.

Republicans, meanwhile, sensed an opportunity, and held a competitive primary between former Attorney General Jon Bruning, Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert and Sarpy County Commissioner David Klug. Bruning was the front-runner, but Klug ran a strong campaign, and impressed Republicans locally and nationally, with his campaigning style pulled even with Bruning by Primary day. On Primary day, Klug completed the upset, defeating Bruning with 39% of the vote, to 38% for Bruning and 23% for Stothert.

This district, though slightly more Republican, remained a swing district, and millions were spent by both sides. However, Klug continued to run a strong campaign after the primaries and ultimately won, 52-47, for the tenth gain for Republicans (to four for Democrats).

[NewYorkExpress]

Georgia

Governor

Stacy Abrams was an underdog to win reelection in 2022, and she faced pressure from National Democrats to run for the Senate. On August 28, 2021, Abrams announced she would be forgoing a reelection bid to mount a Senate campaign.

Democrats now had to deal with a primary battle between former State Senator Jason Carter (who had been the nominee in 2014), former State Representative Stacey Evans (who had run in 2018) and  former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed.

Despite being the only African-American candidate in the race, Reed's candidacy quickly ran aground amid renewed bribery allegations while he was mayor of Atlanta, and after jumping out to an early lead, he dropped back to third place. Both Evans and Carter attacked each other as insufficiently progressive. Most experts believed a runoff would be necessary, and they were right. Evans led after the first round with 40% of the vote, to 32% for Carter and 28% for Reed. In the runoff, Carter used Reed's endorsement, as well as an endorsement from Governor Abrams, to defeat Evans 51-49.

Republicans also had a contested primary between State Representative Barry Fleming, former State Representative Brad Raffensperger (the nominee for Secretary of State in 2018) and Former Congresswoman Karen Handel. Handel had the advantage of being the only candidate who actually had been elected to statewide office,  having been elected Secretary of State in the 2006 elections. She was considered a weak frontrunner at best, and in many ways this was considered a recruiting failure for Georgia Republicans. Most political observers expected the race to go to a runoff, however, Handel didn't need one, as she won with 54% of the vote to 27% for Raffensberger and 19% for Fleming.

In the General Election, Handel raced out to a sizable lead, and watched it slowly shrink as election day grew closer. Still, the pro-Republican climate, plus Warren's relative unpopularity gave her a 51-47 victory. This was the third Gubernatorial gain for Republicans, against two for Democrats.

Senate

Johnny Isakson had been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease in 2015, and won reelection in 2016. Despite speculation he would resign in 2019, 2020 or 2021, Isakson remained committed to finishing out his term. He did however, announce he would not be a candidate for reelection on January 6, 2021.

Democrats successfully convinced the incumbent Governor, Stacy Abrams to run, and she did not face a primary challenge.

Republicans, meanwhile, saw a primary battle break out over the opportunity to succeed Isakson. The candidates were, former Congressman Lynn Westmoreland, former Congressman Jack Kingston, former Secretary of State Brian Kemp (the nominee for Governor in 2018) and former Augusta National Golf Club Chairman Billy Payne (who had contemplated running as Democrat and as an Independent). The Primary Battle was unusually nasty, even by Republican Primary standards, with Kemp lobbing vicious attacks at everyone in the field, calling Westmoreland and Kingston "insufficiently conservative", and after Kingston attacked him for not resigning as Secretary of State during the 2018 election, stating it backfired, he said "if you have to steal an election to win, you should. Unfortunately, Abrams did better at stealing the election". Meanwhile, he attacked Payne for letting women play at Augusta National Golf Club saying it "degraded one of the most sacred venues in golf". Most experts believed a runoff would be needed, and they were right. Kemp led after the primary with 31% of the vote, to 27% for Westmoreland, 24% for Kingston and 18% for Payne.

In the runoff, Westmoreland received the endorsement of Kingston (Payne turned around and endorsed Abrams, stating that he had been embittered by competing in the Republican Primary. He was called a Democratic Plant and a Turncoat on Fox News), but it wasn't enough, as Kemp swept to victory, 59-41.

The general election would be a rematch of the 2018 Gubernatorial Election, and Abrams was an underdog. Jon Ossoff had narrowly lost in a runoff in 2020, even as Warren had won Georgia, and some experts didn't even think Kemp would need the runoff to win, given the Republican climate. However, Abrams herself, was relatively popular (her approval ratings were 49-39, as opposed to Warren's 33-56), so she had a decent chance at winning.

Ultimately, like in Louisiana, there would be a month of extra campaigning here too, as a runoff would be required. Kemp led 49.7-48.6 in November.

House of Representatives

Georgia didn't gain or lose a Congressional seat in redistricting.

With a Democratic Governor, and a Republican Senator, most anticipated a brutal redistricting battle. Democrats however, traded a map that protected Republican Congressional incumbents, in exchange for maps that would allow them to pick up several state legislative seats, and Governor Abrams signed them.

Sixth Congressional District

For the third consecutive cycle, Republicans targeted Lucy McBath. After Tom Price's loss in 2018, McBath now faced State Representative Matt Dollar. While 2020 was a more Republican year, both Jason Carter and Stacey Abrams carried this district by narrow margins, and McBath won by a slim 50.07-49.89 margin for a key Democratic hold.

Seventh Congressional District

Democrats chose to target Casey Cagle in 2020. This was a district that had voted for Warren in 2020 (though not for Jon Osoff) and had also voted for Jason Carter and Stacy Abrams in 2022. The Democrats chose to nominate State Senator Zahra Karinshack. Karinshack was a strong candidate, and she ultimate won the seat despite negative (and sexist) campaigning from Cagle, 52-48, for the fifth pickup for Democrats (against ten for Republicans).

[NewYorkExpress]

Tennessee

Karl Dean had pulled off what was widely considered to be an upset in the 2018 Gubernatorial Election, and was a decided underdog heading into 2020, especially with Warren's approval ratings particularly low.

A crowd of Republicans filed to run here. They were, former Congresswoman Diane Black (who had lost in the primary in 2018), former U.S Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, former Ambassador to Japan, Bill Hagerty, former Lieutenant Governor Ron Ramsey, former Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (the nominee for Senate in 2018), former Congressman Stephen Fincher and former State Representative Beth Harwell (who had also lost in the primary in 2018).

The primary began as everyone against Gonzales, as he faced attacks from all comers on his tenure in the Bush Administration, as Gonzales's poll numbers dropped, the candidates turned on Blackburn and Black. Black was hit for missing votes while serving in Congress, while Blackburn drew criticism for lobbying for President Trump to gain a Nobel Peace prize, which other candidates (Fincher especially) said he did not earn. Ultimately, Fincher won the primary with 21% of the vote, to 18% for Blackburn 17% for Black, 17% for Ramsey, 12% for Gonzales, 8% for Harwell, and 7% for Hagerty.

While Fincher was moderately damaged by the Republican Primary, Warren's approval ratings were the dominant factor here, as was Dean's record as Governor, which included multiple fights with the state legislature, including two government shutdowns, both of which Tennessee voters largely blamed Dean for. As a result, Fincher won easily in November, 57-42, for the Republicans fourth Gubernatorial pickup (against two for Democrats.)

House of Representatives

Tennessee did not gain or lose any seats in redistricting. The Tennessee legislature passed an incumbent protection plan over Governor Dean's veto.

First Congressional District

Phil Roe had broken a term limit pledge in both 2018 and 2020, and while he'd received plenty of criticism for it both years he'd avoided a primary challenge. This would not appear to be the case in 2020, and Roe chose to retire rather than go through a primary fight.

The Republican Primary now was between State Senator Dewey "Rusty" Crowe, State Representative David Hawk, State Representative Timothy Hill and Bristol City Councilwoman Lea Turner, along with nine other Republicans. Hill's attempted vandalizing of his Wikipedia page got the most attention from the other candidates, but despite that, he was considered the strongest candidate running, and he won the primary with 20% of the vote to 17% for Hawk, 13% for Crowe, 10% for Turner, and nine other candidates dividing up 40% of the vote.

While no Democrat filed to run in this race, Hill did face an Independent opponent, Northeast Tennessee State Vice-Chancellor James Martin King. Hill won easily 72-28.

Fifth Congressional District

Jim Cooper was abandoning this district to run for Lieutenant Governor (he lost). While the district had taken in more exurban areas of Nashville in redistricting, it wasn't really enough to endanger Democratic chances of victory here, according to most political observers, especially as Nashville continued to move further to the left.

The Democratic Primary to replace Cooper consisted of several candidates. They were, State Representative Vincent Dixie, State Senator Jeff Yarbro, Nashville Metro Councilor Zulfat Suara (elected in 2019) and former Vanderbilt University Basketball Player Chris Meriwether.

While Meriwhether struggled to fight the perception that he wasn't committed to the district, the other three candidates went to town on other. Dixie and Suara were attacked by Yarbro as too liberal for the district, while Dixie and Suara hit Yarbro as puritanical, attacking Yarbro for sponsoring bills establishing taxes on gentleman's clubs and prohibiting the renting of hotel rooms for less than seven hours  (Dixie had not been in the legislature for either of those votes, but said he opposed both bills as written, while Suara said it was something that was literally none of the government's business. Meriwether, meanwhile, said, while he supported the concept, he wouldn't have voted for either bill, saying such matters were a local issue, not a state or federal issue). In the primary, Yarbro, who had raised the most money ($6,096,000 to Dixie's $4,899,877, Suara's $3,767,000 and Meriwether's $1,087,000) won with 39% of the vote, to Dixie's 29%, Suara's 20% and Meriwether's 12%.

Republicans didn't put this seat on their target list, but they did nominate a potentially strong candidate in State Representative Michael Curcio. Curcio was a strong candidate for this seat, and in an even more Republican year, he might won. However, Yarbro started with a narrow lead in polls, and steadily pulled away, ultimately winning 55-44, for an important hold for Democrats.

Arkansas

Governor

Asa Hutchinson was term-limited. Despite rumors that he and John Boozman would switch jobs, with Hutchinson running for the Senate, and Boozman running for Governor, this did not materialize.

Republicans instead had a primary between Lieutenant Governor Tim Griffin, Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders (she had resigned in July of 2019 to join the Trump reelection campaign-Trump never bothered to replace her) and former State Representative Karen Hopper.

The early action in the primary was from Huckabee Sanders, who attacked Griffin and Rutledge as insufficiently loyal to former President Trump. Griffin fired back, calling Huckabee Sanders a "criminal" (she hadn't been indicted by Robert Mueller or in any successor trials, but she had been subpoenaed by prosecutors seeking to indict former President Trump for treason in absentia). Most experts believed the primary would head to a runoff, which is exactly what happened. Advancing to the runoff was Rutledge with 38% of the vote, and Griffin with 34%, Huckabee Sanders finished third with 24%, and Hopper brought up the rear with 4%.

In the runoff, Hopper's endorsement of Griffin, helped. What didn't help anyone was Huckabee Sanders refusing to endorse anyone, and savaging both candidates on Twitter (calling Rutledge and Griffin "traitors" in one memorable tweet). However, most of her voters went to Rutledge in the runoff, leading to a victory for her, 54-46.

Democrats originally wanted Chelsea Clinton to return to Arkansas and run here (or in the Senate race), but she declined. Instead, they ended up with a comeback bid from former Senator Blanche Lincoln. Lincoln was unopposed in the primary.

Lincoln was a decided underdog in November, as Arkansas had moved decidedly to the right since Lincoln had left the Senate. In addition, Lincoln had vulnerabilities from her time as a lobbyist, that had kept her from being nominated to the position of Secretary of the Interior (according to Chief of Staff Huma Abedin, there was only room for so many ex-lobbyists in the cabinet.). While the result wasn't as big a blowout as her loss in the 2010 Senate race, but it was still a wide loss, as Rutledge won 56-43.

Senate

John Boozman announced fairly early on that he would run for a third term, and he was considered a heavy favorite to win.

Democrats tried to recruit Chelsea Clnton or Mark Pryor, but both declined to run. Instead, they had a primary between former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and former Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola. Stodola was one of the older candidates running for higher office, and struggled to keep up on the fundraising trail. The DSCC's late endorsement of Halter, led to a 53-46 victory for Halter. With Arkansas having moved significantly to the right since the last time Halter had run for this Senate seat in 2010, he was a decided underdog. Boozman had a significant cash-on-hand advantage ($17,000,000 to $8,000,000) and was able to define Halter as "too liberal for Arkansas". Boozman won a third term, 59-40.

House of Representatives

Arkansas neither gained nor lost a Congressional District in redistricting.

Second Congressional District

Ann Clemmer was vacating this seat to run for Lieutenant Governor (she lost in the primary runoff).

Republicans had a contested primary between former State Representative Allen Kerr and former State Representative Davy Carter. Carter received the backing of most conservative groups, and the NRCC endorsed him two months before the primary. Carter won the primary 56-43.

Democrats originally attempted to target this seat, but they had trouble recruiting a strong candidate, and ultimately nominated former Pulaski County Election Commissioner Susan Inman (who had been the nominee for a state Senate seat in 2016, and had been the nominee for Secretary of state in 2014 and 2018).

With a heavily Republican climate, and a weak nominee for Democrats, Carter won 59-39 for an easy hold for Republicans.

[NewYorkExpress]

Michigan

Governor

Gretchen Whitmer had ridden Rick Snyder's unpopularity to an easy win in the 2018 Gubernatorial Election, and was considered a narrow favorite in 2022, as she was personally popular. Still, it was going to be a difficult battle, as President Warren's approvals had declined somewhat in the Rust Belt.

Republicans had a primary between former Congressman Fred Upton, State Senator Ruth Johnson and  Macomb County Public Works Commissioner Candice Miller.

All three Republicans were well known to statewide voters. Upton had spent large sections of 2019 weighing a run against Gary Peters before deciding against it (he had lost reelection in 2018), and when he left office was a high-profile Congressman (Three terms as chair of the House Energy Committtee) Johnson had served as Secretary of State for two terms, and Miller had also been Secretary of State for two terms, as well as a high-profile Congresswoman (Chair of the House Administration Committee for two terms). The RGA's endorsement of Miller, gave her an early lead, and despite desperate attacks from Johnson, it was one she would never relinquish. She won the primary with 48% of the vote, to 37% for Johnson and 15% for Upton (who had repeatedly been attacked for being too "liberal for the Republican Party").

In the General Election, Miller attempted to tie Whitmer to Warren, attacks that were successful, but Whitmer's attacks hitting her for being admonished by the House ethics committee, and for her continued support of George W. Bush's invasion in Iraq, after Miller said in an interview with the Detroit Free Press's editorial board during the primary (they ultimately endorsed Upton) that "we should have leveled Baghdad to the ground once the insurgency began". That comment, once it got out, repulsed most independent voters in Michigan, and led to a 54-43 Whitmer victory for a key Democratic hold

House of Representatives

Michigan would be losing one Congressional seat in redistricting.  While most political observers expected to of the three Detroit area seats to be combined, a deal was reached that saw the Third District, represented by Justin Amash be combined with the Second District, represented by Bill Huizenga.

First Congressional District

Jack Bergman originally planned to run for reelection. However, in September 2021, Bergman was appointed Adjutant General of Michigan by Governor Whitmer, and resigned from his seat on February 6, 2022. Governor Whitmer set the resulting special election for Election Day, 2022.

In the special Election, Republicans nominated Sault St.Marie City Manager Brian Chapman, while Democrats nominated former Congressman Bart Stupak. The district had moved significantly to the right since Stupak had left office, and Chapman won 57-41.

For the General Election, Republicans had a contested primary. The candidates were, Sault St. Marie City Manager Brian Chapman (who was winning the special election), former State Representative Lee Chatfield (he had been term-limited in 2020) and State Representative Beau LaFave. While Chapman had won the special election, his competition in the general election primary was much stronger, and it quickly became a battle between Chatfield and LaFave. Chatfield earned the endorsement of the NRCC, and won the primary with 42% of the vote, to 36% for LaFave and 22% for Chapman.

Democrats nominated the 2014 nominee, retired General Jerry Cannon. This was not a good climate for Democrats, and even if it was, this seat was a stretch. Chatfield won 57-41.

Second Congressional District

Bill Huizenga and Justin Amash's districts being paired together set up a possible member vs member primary. Despite speculation that Amash would run for Governor, or another statewide office, both incumbents filed for reelection. While national Republicans largely backed Huizenga, Amash actually outraised his fellow incumbent ($11,000,500 to $7,086,000) thanks to network of libertarians around the country. The financial advantage allowed Amash to defeat his fellow incumbent 52-47.9 in the primary.

Democrats meanwhile, nominated former State Representative Steve Pestka, who had been the nominee against Amash in 2012. Like in 2012, Amash won, 58-41.

Fourth Congressional District

Republicans targeted Dan Kildee for defeat in 2022. However, no Republican filed to run, and the only candidate who filed to face Kildee, Sports Reporter Heidi Androl, said she would caucus with the Democrats. Kildee won easily 59-41.

Fifth Congressional District

Democrats were targeting Brandt Iden. Their nominee was former State Representative Jon Hoadley (who had been term-limited in 2020). Hoadley ran a strong campaign, and despite Warren's unpopularity, benefited from Gubernatorial coattails, to win 49-48.9 for the Democrats sixth pickup (against ten for Republicans).

Sixth Congressional District

Democrats also targeted Tim Walberg. They nominated former State Representative Gretchen Driskell, who had lost to Walberg in 2016 and 2018. However, Walberg did not take the race seriously, and as a result, the third time ended up being the charm for Driskell, who won 49.9-48.7, for the Democrats seventh pickup (against ten for Republicans).

Seventh Congressional District

Republicans once again targeted Elissa Slotkin. The nominee in 2020, former State Representative Michael Webber was back for a rematch. This time however, Webber would emerge victorious thanks to Warren's falling approval ratings, winning 50-47 for Republicans eleventh pickup (against seven for Democrats).

Eighth Congressional District

Republicans targeted Andy Levin. Their nominee was former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. The last time Land was in the spotlight, the 2014 Senate race against Gary Peters, she had failed miserably. This time wasn't much different, as after starting with an early lead, Land fell apart by Labor Day, causing national Republicans to abandon the race. Levin won 57-40.

Tenth Congressional District

Haley Stevens was also a Republican Target. However, their nominee, former State Senator Valdemar Garcia was not a particularly strong recruit, he hadn't served in elected office since 2010,and he didn't live in the district. All of these factors led to a relatively easy Stevens victory 55-43,for a key Democratic hold.

[NewYorkExpress]

Iowa

Governor

Kim Reynolds was eligible to run for a second full term in her own right, and was considered a narrow favorite for reelection. However, the political calculus changed, as Iowa soon had an open Senate seat. Reynolds immediately announced she would run in that election, setting off an open seat race for Governor.

The Republicans, with this now being an open seat race, had a competitive primary between former Congressman Steve King, Woodbury County Supervisor Jeremy Taylor, former U.S Undersecretary of Agriculture for Farm Production and Conservation, Bill Northey and Lieutenant Governor Adam Gregg.

Gregg was a sitting statewide officeholder, and Northey was the former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture. However, most of the attention in the primary revolved around King, who had a history of provocative statements, and he continued to make them, telling the Des Moines Register that Democrats should be "shot where they stand", and at a Republican debate at the 2021 Iowa State fair, saying that Hitler "had great ideas, but he didn't have someone to moderate those ideas". This led to widespread condemnation from pretty much everyone, with former Governor Chet Culver calling for King to be arrested for "inciting violence" after his appearance as the guest of honor at a Neo-Nazi rally in Dubuque. National Republicans widely were concerned about King winning the nomination and costing them the seat. Fortunately, that didn't quite happen, as Gregg won the primary with 44% of the vote to 34% for King, 17% for Northey and 5% for Taylor.

Democrats also had a contested primary. The candidates were, State Senator Rob Hogg, former Congressman Dave Loebsack (who like Steve King, had lost in 2020), former State Senator Michael Gronstal, State Center Mayor Steve Sodders, Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie, and former Chair of the Iowa Democratic Party Andrea McGuire.

While the Democratic Primary was more crowded, most of the high-profile politicians in the party were focusing on the Senate race, leading to what essentially was the B-Team running. What turned the tide in this primary, was the endorsements of both President Warren and Vice President Cortez Masto (who didn't make many non-Nevada endorsements in the midterms) of Gronstal. As a result, Gronstal won the primary with 56% of the vote, to 21% for Loebsack, 10% for Cownie, 6% for Hogg, 4% for McGuire, and 3% for Sodders.

In the General Election, Republicans had dodged a bullet by not nominating Steve King, and their nominee Gregg remained ahead of Gronstal throughout the campaign. Despite King refusing to endorse Gregg (unlike all of the other Republican candidates), he defeated Gronstal 50-46, with the Libertarian nominee, Bryan Holder earning 3.6% of the vote.

Senate

Despite early speculation that Chuck Grassley would run for yet another term, he announced he would retire on Valentine's Day, 2021.

Almost immediately, Governor Kim Reynolds announced she would enter the race. However, like the Senate seat that opened up when Tom Harkin announced his retirement, there would be a contested primary on both sides of the aisle.

On the Republican side, Governor Reynolds faced President and CEO of The Family Leader, Bob Vander Plaats and State Representative Pat Grassley (the grandson of the incumbent Senator, Chuck Grassley). Grassley quickly picked up the endorsement of the incumbent, while Reynolds walked away with most of the more significant endorsements nationally, including the NRSC. Meanwhile, Iowa's other Senator, Joni Ernst, also endorsed Reynolds just weeks before the primary. Vander Plaats's highest profile endorsements were Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich. Reynolds won the primary by a far closer margin than she expected, with 41% of the vote, to 38% for Grassley and 21% for Vander Plaats.

The Democratic Primary, was more wide open. The candidates were, former State Senator Rita Hart, former State Senator Jack Hatch, former Governor Chet Culver, former Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson and State Senator Janet Petersen.

Culver and Pederson were both former statewide officeholders, but both had been out of office for extended periods (Pederson's last election of any kind was running for reelection in 2002, while Culver's last election was losing to Terry Branstad in 2010). As a result, both were rusty, and made several unforced errors (notably, after a riot by African American protesters against the Des Moines Police Department in June of 2021 after a White officer was accused of sexually harassing an African-American officer, and was not disciplined for it, saw Culver make statements supporting the rioters. Another notable incident saw Pederson offend most of Iowa's voters by calling for Iowa to abandon it's "first in the nation" caucus and move to a later primary date for the 2024 Presidential primaries during a October 2021 speech in Cedar Rapids.). As a result of these miscues, the already tenuous leads of Culver and Pederson collapsed. Instead, Petersen won the primary with 40% of the vote, to 28% for Hatch, 21% for Hart, 7% for Culver and 4% for Pederson.

In the general election, Reynolds, who had a huge financial advantage ($12,050,000 to Petersen's $5,067,900) won, 55-41, with Charles Aldrich, the Libretarian nominee, earning 3.4% of the vote, for a Republican hold.

House of Representatives

Iowa neither gained nor lost a Congressional seat in redistricting.

First Congressional District

For the second straight cycle Republicans targeted Abby Finkenauer. Finkenauer, for her part had been mentioned as a possible candidate for statewide office in Iowa, but she declined to run. Instead she faced a tough general election battle.

Multiple Republicans filed for the right to take on Finkenauer in November. They were, former State Representative Kristi Hager, who had won in 2018, served for two months and then resigned to focus on a Congressional bid (she was the nominee in 2020, and lost to Finkenauer), State Representative Ashley Hinson, and Waterloo City Councilman Johnathan Grieder. Hinson quickly picked up the endorsement of the NRCC, and won the primary easily with 68% of the vote, to 21% for Hager and 11% for Greider.

Hinson proved to be a stronger candidate than Hager had been. Still, Finkenauer was able to hang on in November, 49-48, with Libertarian Tory Hageman earning 2.6% of the vote.

Second Congressional District

Despite former President Trump having carried this district two elections in a row, this was the only district that both Kim Reynolds and Adam Gregg had lost (both had won the fourth district, Reynolds had won the first district and lost in the third district, while Gregg had won in the third district and lost in the first district).

Dan Zumbach chose not to run for reelction, instead announcing a bid for Secretary of State (he won the primary, but lost in November to Businessman and former University of Iowa President Bruce Harreld- who was nominally a Democrat, but on the campaign trail showed some sympathy for Republican positions).

The Republican Primary to replace Zumbach was contested between Fort Madison City Councilman Tyler Miller, and retired Mixed Martial Artist Tim Sylvia. Sylvia's choice of career was a prominent avenue of attack for Miller and his surrogates, with the Ronna Romney McDaniel (Still the RNC Chair, though she'd announced she would step down after the midterms, regardless of the results, citing burnout) calling it "a career that causes brain damage and destructive behavior", when endorsing Miller. Miller won the primary 57-43.

On the Democratic side, there was also a contested primary between State Representative Phyllis Thede and Police Officer (and former Survivor winner) Sarah Lacina. Thede hit Lacina for not being a "true Democrat" (which technically was true, Lacina was running in the Democratic Primary, rather than the Republican Primary or as an Independent because she thought it would be easier to win as a Democrat), and called her participation on Survivor "pandering to the lowest common denominator". Thede won the primary 53-47.

In November, while Warren was relatively unpopular, the in-district losses by both Reynolds and Gregg gave Thede a 51-48.8 victory, for the Democrats eighth pickup (against eleven for Republicans).

Third Congressional District

Republicans, for the second straight cycle, put a bullseye on Cindy Axne.

The Republicans had a contested primary for the right to face Axne in November. The candidates were State Senator David Young (Young, who had served two terms in Congress representing the predecessor of this district, before challenging embattled State Senator Nate Boulton and winning in 2020) and Clarinda City Councilman Matt Ridge (who had just won reelection in 2021). Ridge was never a serious threat to Young, who held a dominating fundraising advantage ($9,000,000 to $457,000), and Young won the primary 71-29.

In the General Election, Young's second battle with Axne went significantly smoother than his first, as he had a Republican wave at his back, and he narrowly won 49-47, with Libertarian nominee Edward Wright earning 3.76%. This was the twelfth gain for Republicans (against eight for Democrats).

Fourth Congressional District

John Neal was essentially Republican-lite (as he had to be, both Kim Reynolds and Adam Gregg won this district by 15, and in 2016 President Trump had won this district by 12, while Joni Ernst had won it by 16), but that didn't stop Republicans from putting the district on their target list.

Republicans were able to unite around a single candidate, State Senator Randy Feenstra (who had strongly considered challenging Steve King in 2020, before deciding to pass on the race). Feenstra held a massive advantage in polling throughout the race, and despite Neal being one of only a handful of Democrats to vote against the Warren Health Care bill in the House, he was attacked for being a "liberal", especially after he voted to end ethanol subsides in the 2021 Farm Bill (it passed the House 227-201, and after successfully clearing cloture in the Senate, passed the Senate 53-41 on July 29, 2021, before being signed by President Warren- Neal was the only member of the Iowa delegation to vote for the bill.). The seat snapped back to it's traditional Republican form as Feenstra won 59-40, for the Republicans thirteenth gain (against eight for Democrats). Nine days after the election, Neal resigned to take over as the Head Coach for the Grinell Pioneers in the NCAA's Division III, following the midseason retirement of the previous Head Coach, David Arseneault. Given the resignation had occurred after election day, no special election was called.

[NewYorkExpress]

Florida

Governor

Andrew Gillium would have been eligible for reelection, but he faced multiple personal scandals. First, in March 2020 he hospitalized for a methamphetamine overdose, and spent forty-five days in a rehab facility. Then, on May 12, 2021, Gillum was caught in a prostitution sting in Tallahassee, that netted seventy-five people, including both Gillum and his Chief of Staff. On May 17, facing a possible impeachment from the Republican Legislature, Gillum announced his resignation, effective on Memorial Day. This meant that Lieutenant Governor Christopher King ascended to the office of Governor.

King announced he would run for a full term, but he would face a primary challenge. Running against King was former Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, who finally was making a bid for statewide office, fulfilling a longheld dream of many Florida voters. King had largely been considered a do-nothing Governor, especially in the face of a Republican majority in both houses of the Legislature, while Iorio had left office as Mayor overwhelmingly popular. However, Iorio had not run for elected office since winning reelection as Mayor in 2007. However, she was able to secure the endorsement of the DGA, led by Gavin Newsom over the incumbent, and pulled off what national observers called an upset, 51-48.7.

Republicans meanwhile, wanted to use the personal scandals surrounding Gillum as a platform to take back the Governor's mansion. Despite early speculation that Marco Rubio would run (he didn't), the Republican field was crowded and diverse. The candidates were, former Attorney General Pam Bondi, former Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam, former Congressman Ron DeSantis (he had been the nominee in 2018, losing to Gillum), former Congressman Carlos Curbelo and former State Senator Lizbeth Benacquistio (Who had been term-limited in 2020).

Bondi had gotten some ugly headlines, when the Orlando Sentinel published an article in January of 2022 describing her lobbying for the Qatari Government, which included facilitating an arms deal between Qatar and Russia (President Warren hadn't even tried to mediate the ongoing Qatari crisis, which had been ongoing for almost five years. She'd refused to appoint an ambassador to any of the quarreling countries, and with the help of China and an abstention from Russia-their UN delegate had not even been in the building at a July 2021 Security Council Meeting, had successfully secured worldwide military and economic sanctions on Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain), as well as lobbying FIFA on behalf of Qatari Football Association President Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa bin Ahmed al-Than to ban Qatar's regional enemies (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain) from the 2022 World Cup (that campaign failed, Egypt would qualify and advance to the Round of Sixteen, where they lost to the Netherlands. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia did not qualify). Meanwhile, Putnam came under attack from a PAC connected to Pam Iorio for allowing convicted felons to get concealed carry permits, a scandal dating back to his days as Agriculture Commissioner. Then, DeSantis got into trouble when he called for Vladimir Putin to "send some FSB people to deal with President Warren", at a rally in Miami, which drew sharp condemnation from Democrats across the spectrum, and even drew a negative comment from Putin who said that "assassinating the President of the United States would bring so much pain upon Russia, that I would never dream of ordering such an action".

Finally, Putnam got his revenge on DeSantis, winning the primary with 39% of the vote, to 30% for Bondi, 17% for DeSantis, 10% for Curbelo and 4% for Benacquisto.

The extremely negative and nasty tone of the Republican Primary allowed Iorio to defeat Putnam 51-48.6, for a key hold for Democrats.

Senate

Despite speculation that Marco Rubio would run for Governor or retire to focus on a 2024 Presidential bid, the incumbent filed for reelection. He avoided a primary challenge.

Democrats avoided a contested primary, but that was largely because only one candidate filed to face Rubio. That candidate was Miramar Mayor Wayne Messam. Messam had briefly run for President in 2020, but had dropped out long before the Iowa Caucus, having raised no money. His Senate bid didn't go much better, as he only raised $998,000, a paltry sum compared to Rubio's $29,000,000. Rubio won easily in November 59-40, as he cast his eyes towards a 2024 bid for President.

House of Representatives

Florida would gain two Congressional Districts in redistricting. A referendum had mandated a redistricting commission for legislative seats, but still allowed legislative redistricting for Congressional seats.

Third Congressional District

Ted Yoho had avoided a primary challenge after breaching his term limits in 2020. However, even though he'd chosen not to run for reelection already, he got a nice surprise when he was chosen to be the running mate for Adam Putnam's Gubernatorial campaign (which lost in November).

Multiple Republicans filed to replace Yoho. They were former State Representative Travis Cummings (term-limited out in 2020), State Representative Stan McClain and Union County Commissioner Channing Dobbs. McClain was the favorite of most Conservative groups and pounded on Cummings for being a RINO, and ultimately won the primary with 47% of the vote, to 29% for Cummings and 24% for Dobbs.

Democrats were not expected to be seriously competitive in this overwhelmingly Republican seat, however, they found a strong nominee in Gainesville Mayor Lauren Poe. Even worse for Republicans, McClain's campaign hit a scandal when his district manager in the State House was indicted for taking bribes from a Marion County developer. Poe won a massive upset, 47-46, with Attorney and former Alachua County Sherrif's Deputy Jake Rush getting 7% as an Independent. This seat was the ninth gain for Democrats (against Thirteen for Republicans).

Seventh Congressional District

After redistricting, this district was represented by Bill Posey, and he chose to retire, rather than run for reelection.

Republicans had a primary battle between former State Representative David Santiago and State Representative Elizabeth Fetterhoff. Fetterhoff had been viewed as a rising star in Florida politics after an August 2021 video, released to YouTube, where she called Disney's dominance of copyright law "disturbing" and "dangerous". This led Disney to donate over $2,000,000 to Santiago's campaign, but it wasn't enough. Fetterhoff won the primary 52-48.

This was a heavily Republican district, and Democrats ultimately nominated Carol Lawrence, who had been the nominee against Santiago in 2018. However, Fetterhoff won 64-36.

Shortly after election day, one final surprise was in the cards, as President Warren nominated Posey to be Administrator of NASA on November 10, 2022, replacing the outgoing Administrator Dava Newman (who had been confirmed back in August of 2021, 89-9) (Senate Confirmation was not considered certain, as several prominent Democratic Senators, like Bernie Sanders and Beto O'Rourke, opposed Posey), who was departing to become a faculty member at MIT.

Eighth Congressional District

The Seventh and Eighth Congressional Districts had swapped numbers in redistricting, meaning this was now Stephanie Murphy's home turf.

This remained a tossup district, and Republicans were determined to win it. They managed to avoid a bloody primary with only one candidate filing, former State Representative Mike Clelland. However, Clelland was not an especially strong or inspiring nominee, and the NRCC pulled out of the race at the end of September, as Murphy won 56-43.

Eleventh Congressional District

This was now Darren Soto's home district (with Daniel Webster running in and winning in the ninth). However, Soto chose to leave the seat behind to run for Attorney General against the incumbent, Ashley Moody (he lost 50-49).

The Democratic Primary to replace Soto was between former Congressman Alan Grayson and Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer. Grayson's proactive personality won him the endorsement of figures like Cenk Ugyur, but the the Democratic Establishment, and even Bernie Sanders lined up behind Dyer (Sanders was quoted as calling Grayson an "imbecile".). Dyer won the primary 59-41.

Republicans didn't even bother to field a candidate for the General election, despite the opportunity to pick up a seat if Grayson won the primary.

Thirteenth Congressional District

Rick Kriesman had knocked out Charlie Crist in the Democratic Primary in 2020, and then turned back a Republican challenge in the General Election. He was expected to face a stiff challenge in 2022.

Republicans however, had trouble finding a strong contender to take on the popular Kriesman, ultimately nominating former Major League Baseball Pitcher Travis Harper, who had spent six years pitching for the Rays. However, Harper's campaign ran into serious trouble, as he was twice thrown off the ballot, before being reinstated, because he couldn't prove that he lived in Florida. Kriesman won 59-40.

Twenty-Fourth Congressional District

This was a new Democratic District based out of Broward County.

The real action was expected to be in the Democratic Primary, however, the field cleared for former Congressman Kendrick Meek.

Meek won in November against a Green Party candidate 89-10.

Twenty-Fifth Congressional District

This was another Democratic District that combined parts of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties.

Again, the real action would be in the Democratic Primary. Unlike in the Twenty-Fourth District, there was a contested primary, as former Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz faced off against Broward County Commissioner Barbara Sharief. Wasserman Schultz hammered Sharief on her supposed lack of support for Israel in the lone debate, causing Sharief to accuse her of being anti-Muslim, to which Wasserman Schultz replied "find me a Muslim that supports Israel and I'll stop accusing you". This caused Wasserman Schultz's position, already tenuous, as the left still did not like her for denying Bernie Sanders the Presidential nomination in 2016, to crater as Sharief won the primary 64-36.

Sharief then beat a Green Party candidate, 70-29 in November.

Twenty-Ninth Congressional District

Carlos Lopez-Cantera was running for a second term.

He would face former Congresswoman Debbie Murascel-Powell in a rematch of the 2020 race. Lopez Cantera had been largely a party-line vote for Republicans, despite talking a moderate tone, and with Murascel-Powell pledging to support legislation to reinstate the embargo on Cuba, she was able to emerge with a 51-48.7 victory for the tenth gain for Democrats (against thirteen for Republicans).

[NewYorkExpress]

Maryland

Governor

Larry Hogan was term-limited. Democrats had high hopes of taking back the seat, despite Hogan exiting office popular.

Republicans looked to build on Hogan's popularity in an attempt to hold the Governor's mansion, and they were buoyed by the fact 2022 looked to be a modest wave for them.

Their primary was surprisingly crowded, with several notable candidates competing for the nomination. They were, Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford, former State Delegate Robin Ficker, Hartford County Executive Barry Glassman, and former Anne Arundel County Executive Steve Schuh (who had lost in 2018).

Ficker had announced the earliest, but Rutherford had the strongest campaign, and he received the endorsement of Governor Hogan almost immediately. Midway through the race, a Super PAC with ties to GOP Mega-Donor Foster Friess, backing Ficker aired an ad that used racist stereotypes to refer to Rutherford (specifically calling him "uppity"), and and Anti-Semitic stereotypes to refer to both Glassman and Schuh (stating that they were part of a "destabilizing Zionist Conspiracy.) Then, three days before the primary, all campaigning ceased when Ficker died at 81 of a heart attack, though he remained on the ballot. On Primary Day, the final numbers showed Rutherford winning with 49% of the vote, to Glassman's 20%, Schuh's 20% and Ficker's 9.9%.

On the Democratic side, the field was deep and crowded, with many candidates running. Several notables stood out in a crowded field. They were, Comptroller Peter Franchot, former Congressman John Delaney (who had run for President in 2020, and finished last in every primary and caucus, and ultimately ended his campaign with no money after finishing last in Maryland), Anne Arundel County Executive Steuart Pittman, former State Delegate Heather Mizeur (making her second bid for Governor-she'd lost in the primary in 2014), Congressman Doug Gansler (also making his second bid for Governor, he'd lost in the primary in 2014) and former Congresswoman Donna Edwards (making her second bid for statewide office- she'd lost in the primary for Senate in 2016).

While Gansler started with the lead, the race quickly devolved into everyone against Delaney, who had made himself quite unpopular at home with his bid for President. Indeed, at the one primary debate at Howard University (Republicans did not have a Primary debate), hosted by the Washington Post, candidates were literally going out of their way to attack Delaney. By comparison, the two candidates that had served statewide Franchot and Gansler, and the other Congressperson, Edwards, largely skated away. Ultimately, the primary went to Gansler with 14% of the vote to 13% for Franchot, 11% for Mizeur, 9% for Edwards, 8% for Pittman and 5% for Delaney, with twenty-three other candidates dividing up the remaining 32% of the vote.

Despite Hogan's popularity, Gansler entered the general election as the favorite, beginning with a double digit lead. However, Rutherford caught up in the polls, especially after the Washington Post reported that Gansler had filed charges against the Beltway Snipers, John Allen Muhammed and Lee Boyd Malvo, because of a personal dislike of the Virginia Attorney General at the time, Jerry Kilgore, who he called "a failed lawyer who is having people killed for political reasons".

With that, Rutherford took the lead, and won 51-46, with the Libertarian nominee, Arvin Vohra earning 2.6% of the vote, for a key Republican hold.

Senate

Chris Van Hollen was not expected to face serious opposition in 2020, and that feeling intensified after Governor Hogan declined to challenge him, instead setting his sights on a 2024 bid for President. Instead, Republicans nominated former Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman. Kittleman was considered a solid "wave insurance" candidate, but conditions on the ground never deteriorated to the point where Van Hollen was in any real danger.

Van Hollen won in November 62-37.

House of Representatives

The number of seats in Maryland stayed the same. Democrats agreed to shore up Andy Harris's district in exchange for their own districts being made marginally safer.

First Congressional District

Despite Andy Harris's district again getting shored up in redistricting, National Democrats thought they might be able to defeat him in November. This was despite their 2020 nominee, Charles Mathias Jr, falling just short in a perfect storm for them. This time, they chose to nominate Salisbury Mayor Jacob Day. Day's candidacy was a mixed bag for Democrats. On the one hand, he had a stronger local profile than Mathias, as Salisbury remained the largest city in the district, while on the other hand, he wasn't a particularly good fundraiser, as he only raised $378,000 compared to Harris's $3,089,490.

Harris also had a wave, and a favorable district backing him up, and as a result, he won 56-43.9, for a Republican hold.

Second Congressional District

While no one seriously thought that the district would be competitive in the fall, Kenneth Ulman was forced to abandon his reelection campaign after being named the running mate for Peter Franchot (this was his second time running for Lieutenant Governor-he'd been Anthony Brown's running mate in 2014). With little time to mount a primary campaign, Democrats turned to former Governor Martin O'Malley (making him the second former Statewide official to be a nominee for this seat in as many cycles).

Republicans actually had a competitive primary, between State Delegate Richard Impallaria, State Senator Johnny Ray Salling, and former Assistant to the President for Intergovernmental and Technology Initiatives during the Trump Administration, Real Estate Developer Reed Cordish.

Cordish was able to self-fund his way to the primary victory with 57% of the vote, to 26% for Sailing, and 17% Impallaria.

In November however, Cordish's spending (he ultimately spent $8,676,000 of his own money) was not enough to come anywhere near close in a seat where Trump remained unpopular. O'Malley won 63-36.

Fifth Congressional District

With Doug Gansler running for Governor, Democrats looked to a new nominee to fill his seat. They ended up nominating former Democratic National Committee Chairman Thomas Perez (who had resigning in Autumn of 2021, when he entered this race, and was replaced by Secretary Jason Rae).

Republicans were not seriously competitive here again, and again nominated former State Delegate Tony O'Donnell.

Perez won easily 67-32.

Seventh Congressional District

Elijah Cummings's death on January 6, 2021, meant a special election. Despite early beliefs that the special would be crowded, only two notable candidates filed to run. Former Chairwoman of the Maryland Democratic Party and Cummings's widow, Maya RockyMoore Cummings (who'd resigned as Chair of the Maryland Democratic Party because of her husband's ill health) and former Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake. In a tight primary that divided Baltimore's poltitical elite, Rawlings-Blake upset RockyMoore Cummings 51-49.

Republicans nominated community activist Kim Klacik, and Rawlings Blake beat her in the special, 79-20.

In the General, Rawlings-Blake did not face any opposition from the Republicans, and beat a Green Party challenger, 88-12.