IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12

[Pollster]

Many HUGE red flags in the crosstabs for this one suggesting it is not what it looks like:

1. Donnelly doing better among men than women is questionable at best.
2. Braun winning 89% of 18-25 year olds and 1% of 56-61 year olds.
3. Absolutely zero undecideds in CD-1 (I know this is heavily D district, but nowhere in the country is that inelastic)
4. The crosstabs across CD in general are pretty insane.
5. Nearly the exact same undecided movement in the Donnelly Votes Yes crosstab despite massive sample size making that nearly statistically impossible.
6. If these numbers were anywhere close to the truth, Donnelly would have released an internal by now.

Likely explanation: this poll has a wildly small sample size that was weighted to the massive number they report (this would explain #5). The numbers are probably far from accurate, and this poll probably has an ulterior motive.

[Pollster]

LOOK AT THE CROSSTABS

Reiterating my post from earlier which seems to have been overlooked in the frenzy to comment on this poll - the corsstabs suggest this is a radically small sample overweighted to appear large.

[Pollster]

Want to reiterate one very important point: if these numbers were anywhere close to the truth, Donnelly and/or his allies would have released an internal poll with a similar showing by now.

Hard to overstate how bogus this poll is.