IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12

[KingSweden]

I have a strong suspicion this poll is junk

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol. Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want. November ain't gonna be pretty.

You are the most insufferable hack in the history of insufferable hacks.

What about me?

[IceSpear]

I have a strong suspicion this poll is junk

It obviously is. But it's funny how it's riling up all the concern trolls who love to put stock in pro Republican outliers, lol.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Eh, no.

The only intention of this R pollster is to make it look the race is over, so that Dem voters stay home.

That would be the opposite of their strategy in 2016 and 2017 then, lol.

Do not underestimate the absolute complacency of Dems. The fact that some were smug enough to vote Jill Stein/Johnson should sum it up for you.

[Alabama_Indy10]

JUNK POLL

[Yank2133]

This is an outlier, but Donnelly should be favored.

[Gass3268]

I have a strong suspicion this poll is junk

I'm not even sure if this is a real poll. I have yet to see anyone talk about it on twitter.

[IceSpear]

I have a strong suspicion this poll is junk

I'm not even sure if this is a real poll. I have yet to see anyone talk about it on twitter.

If it's not, then someone put a lot of trouble into faking a PDF, and they also fooled RCP.

[Yellowhammer]

Many HUGE red flags in the crosstabs for this one suggesting it is not what it looks like:

1. Donnelly doing better among men than women is questionable at best.
2. Braun winning 89% of 18-25 year olds and 1% of 56-61 year olds.
3. Absolutely zero undecideds in CD-1 (I know this is heavily D district, but nowhere in the country is that inelastic)
4. The crosstabs across CD in general are pretty insane.
5. Nearly the exact same undecided movement in the Donnelly Votes Yes crosstab despite massive sample size making that nearly statistically impossible.
6. If these numbers were anywhere close to the truth, Donnelly would have released an internal by now.

Likely explanation: this poll has a wildly small sample size that was weighted to the massive number they report (this would explain #5). The numbers are probably far from accurate, and this poll probably has an ulterior motive.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

[Virginiá]

Are people forgetting who the pollster is? My goodness, the rush to scrape for any positive Dem news is kinda embarrassing.

My god, the irony here hurts.

[Person Man]

Great Poll! By the firm that predicted the upset on Elections' Eve in PA, MI, and FL no less!

[IceSpear]

Great Poll! By the firm that predicted the upset on Elections' Eve in PA, MI, and FL no less!

Indeed, unlike the junk polls showing Braun ahead, which all said Hillary would win. Checkmate libs!

[Sestak]

Lol.

Forget junk poll - from the crosstabs this looks like a fake poll.

[Xing]

Lol. Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want. November ain't gonna be pretty.

I disagree. Seeing the abundance of egg on your face this November will be a beautiful sight to behold.

Anyway, TrafLOLgar isn't a good pollster, they just happened to be right about MI and PA in 2016 (but let's not forget their 7.5% error in Nevada). This is obviously junk, but Donnelly winning (albeit by a smaller margin than this) shouldn't be a surprising result to anyone.

[MT Treasurer]

They also polled WY, MT, and NV, here are the numbers:

NV: Heller 61, Rosen 29
WY: Trauner 50, Barrasso 37
MT: Tester 77, Bullock 18, Rosendale 4

[IceSpear]

They also polled WY, MT, and NV, here are the numbers:

NV: Heller 61, Rosen 29
WY: Trauner 50, Barrasso 37
MT: Tester 77, Bullock 18, Rosendale 4

The Wyoming one looks legit, but imo im calling bs on rosen being over 20 imo she's just such a bad candidate imo

[Wells]

They also polled WY, MT, and NV, here are the numbers:

NV: Heller 61, Rosen 29
WY: Trauner 50, Barrasso 37
MT: Tester 77, Bullock 18, Rosendale 4

This had me fooled for 2 seconds lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, Bayh is leading Braun, without IN, the GOP can't keep the Senate red.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

They also polled WY, MT, and NV, here are the numbers:

NV: Heller 61, Rosen 29
WY: Trauner 50, Barrasso 37
MT: Tester 77, Bullock 18, Rosendale 4

This had me fooled for 2 seconds lol

More for me lol.

[Gillibrand/Brown 2020]

   polls, It's going to be an nail biter!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

That is certainly an unexpectedly good poll for Donnelly.

Trafalgar has a C rating on 538, so true that it is not the highest quality poll (there are also LOTS of other similarly rated pollsters which are taken seriously), but still it does contain some informational content, and that informational content is very good for Dems.

[Sestak]

LOOK AT THE CROSSTABS

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

LOOK AT THE CROSSTABS

These are maybe the most absurd crosstabs I’ve ever seen in my entire life. This poll is horrific.

[Pollster]

LOOK AT THE CROSSTABS

Reiterating my post from earlier which seems to have been overlooked in the frenzy to comment on this poll - the corsstabs suggest this is a radically small sample overweighted to appear large.

[Politician]

They also polled WY, MT, and NV, here are the numbers:

NV: Heller 61, Rosen 29
WY: Trauner 50, Barrasso 37
MT: Tester 77, Bullock 18, Rosendale 4

Holy sh**t, I believed the Wyoming number for a second.