TN-Sen, Gravis: Blackburn in the lead
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 01:04:11 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  TN-Sen, Gravis: Blackburn in the lead
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: TN-Sen, Gravis: Blackburn in the lead  (Read 3883 times)
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 14, 2018, 08:59:54 AM »

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

Blackburn 48
Bredesen 44

The victory in the primary is boosting Marsha Blackburn.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2018, 09:00:36 AM »

Its gravis, garbage.

Edit: The poll also says that a majority of voters oppose Same Sex Marriage. Color me skeptical.
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2018, 09:05:24 AM »

Bad slate of polling for Democrats today.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2018, 09:09:34 AM »

But many posters told me Bredesen was inevitable because of muh six month early polls. Roll Eyes

It's all downhill for Bredesen from here. Dems might as well triage this race now, it's a waste of money.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2018, 09:11:08 AM »

Bredesen doing worse than unelectable joke candidate Jacky Rosen? No way!

J/k, this is Gravis and should be taken with a grain of salt. The race is still a Tossup because there is nothing Blackburn can do to win over #NeverTrump "Republicans"/"moderates" in places like Davidson and Williamson County, but she can still win if she gets her base out and East and rural TN come home.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2018, 09:13:52 AM »

>g r a v i s
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2018, 09:19:16 AM »

Gravis should be treated with skepticism when:

A) it shows a good result for a Democrat
B) it shows a good result for a Republican
C) always, no matter the result, because it’s f*#@ing Gravis
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2018, 09:27:09 AM »

I wonder who sponsored this poll? Thats usually  the story when they get wildly different results, its because they were sponsored.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2018, 09:42:55 AM »

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by Gravis Marketing on 2018-08-11

Summary: D: 44%, R: 48%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2018, 09:58:15 AM »

Undecideds here are disproportionately women, voters under age 30, and independents. In this election cycle, that's likely a good sign for Bredesen.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2018, 10:01:50 AM »

Does anybody know what AA turnout typically looks like in Tennessee? Is the 14% figure in this poll on the mark?
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2018, 10:10:51 AM »

Gravis should be treated with skepticism when:

A) it shows a good result for a Democrat
B) it shows a good result for a Republican
C) always, no matter the result, because it’s f*#@ing Gravis
Logged
mds32
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,090
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2018, 10:34:17 AM »

But many posters told me Bredesen was inevitable because of muh six month early polls. Roll Eyes

It's all downhill for Bredesen from here. Dems might as well triage this race now, it's a waste of money.

This is similar to Bayh where the Dems in the end were overtaken in the end.
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2018, 11:01:25 AM »

In the spirit of overreacting to a single Gravis poll, I will note one of my "bold" Senate predictions was:


I accept accolades in advance. Tongue

It is apparently easy to forget just how deep a deep-red state TN is these days. Although Bredesen will definitely overperform big time for a Democrat, he has a very steep hill to climb.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2018, 11:08:49 AM »

Junk firm but the result in the end will likely be correct
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2018, 11:17:45 AM »

Gravis should be treated with skepticism when:

A) it shows a good result for a Democrat
B) it shows a good result for a Republican
C) always, no matter the result, because it’s f*#@ing Gravis
Logged
oraclebones
Rookie
**
Posts: 95
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2018, 11:25:48 AM »

The poll also says that a majority of voters oppose Same Sex Marriage. Color me skeptical.

What's hard to believe about 53% of people in a conservative state opposing same-sex marriage? Or have you bought into the media narrative that there's now total consensus in the country on this issue?
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2018, 11:51:35 AM »

The poll also says that a majority of voters oppose Same Sex Marriage. Color me skeptical.

What's hard to believe about 53% of people in a conservative state opposing same-sex marriage? Or have you bought into the media narrative that there's now total consensus in the country on this issue?
Well, its because, in the most recent surveys on the issue, around 2/3s are supportive of SSM, with only 30% against it. It just seems unlikely to me that TN, a rather moderate GOP state with a sizable Indie and Dem population, would be majority against it.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/234866/two-three-americans-support-sex-marriage.aspx
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2018, 12:47:05 PM »

But many posters told me Bredesen was inevitable because of muh six month early polls. Roll Eyes

It's all downhill for Bredesen from here. Dems might as well triage this race now, it's a waste of money.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,779
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2018, 01:01:28 PM »

TN governor race is safe R, but I wouldn't count out Bredesen just yet.
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,175
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2018, 01:03:04 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2018, 01:14:17 PM by Arkansas Yankee »

The best thing to happen for Blackburn was to have Lee win the Gubernatorial Primary.  The factions of the Party will come together.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2018, 01:05:04 PM »

The best thing to happen for Blackburn was to have Lee win the Primary.  The factions of the Party will come together.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2018, 01:55:07 PM »

>Gravis, but this doesn't seem too implausible. I don't think the Bayh comparisons are justified just yet, but it stands to reason that Blackburn has more room to grow than Bredesen.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2018, 02:28:01 PM »

>Gravis, but this doesn't seem too implausible. I don't think the Bayh comparisons are justified just yet, but it stands to reason that Blackburn has more room to grow than Bredesen.

This. I think Blackburn will take it in the end, winning 52-46%.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2018, 05:53:45 PM »

Bayh would win his Senate race if he were running in 2018.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 13 queries.