MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie (user search)
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  MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie (search mode)
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Author Topic: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie  (Read 3983 times)
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« on: August 12, 2018, 11:09:57 AM »

Yeah, this race is lean D at this point. If R pollsters are finding it a tie, and nonpartisan pollsters find her ahead by 4-5, and the primary showed a final margin of 53-47R, then Claire will have a much easier time of winning than previously thought.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2018, 09:36:20 PM »

Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?

Yeah, she was down by 2 in their July poll.

Seeing as this is a Republican pollster, good result for McCaskill. McCaskill is sort of the anti-Nelson. She's looking less vulnerable than, say, Donnelly and Heitkamp because of how weak Hawley is shaping up to be. However, just like Nelson has room to grow and will probably surge toward the end, McCaskill's ceiling is low and Hawley could surge toward the end. Best case scenario is Nelson gets his s*it together and Hawley doesn't, of course.

Can you two not read?  The article says that this is a Missouri Scout poll.  It also says that the last two Missouri Scout polls had McCaskill up by 4.

This new poll is not yet in the RCP average. If it Is added, the average becomes McCaskill +.2.  If you drop the April and May polls it becomes Hawley +.7

The race is a tossup.

MO scout was used, but Remington, an R firm, sponsored the poll. So this is, in fact, a Remington poll.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2018, 12:04:54 AM »

Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?

Yeah, she was down by 2 in their July poll.

Seeing as this is a Republican pollster, good result for McCaskill. McCaskill is sort of the anti-Nelson. She's looking less vulnerable than, say, Donnelly and Heitkamp because of how weak Hawley is shaping up to be. However, just like Nelson has room to grow and will probably surge toward the end, McCaskill's ceiling is low and Hawley could surge toward the end. Best case scenario is Nelson gets his s*it together and Hawley doesn't, of course.

Can you two not read?  The article says that this is a Missouri Scout poll.  It also says that the last two Missouri Scout polls had McCaskill up by 4.

This new poll is not yet in the RCP average. If it Is added, the average becomes McCaskill +.2.  If you drop the April and May polls it becomes Hawley +.7

The race is a tossup.

MO scout was used, but Remington, an R firm, sponsored the poll. So this is, in fact, a Remington poll.
But does that mean they can be compared to show movement.  Generally I will not use two different polling organizations to show movement.
TBH, I dont know. Its hard to see whether this is movement to either side, due to the fact that it was done by both, but due to the fact that this is considered an R internal, I lean towards the "movement to Claire" side.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2018, 10:50:50 AM »

After all of this debate, I officially have no idea what this poll means in context with anything.

What I do know is that, if Claire is tying now, then shes likely to win reelection, unless Hawley turns out to be a juggernaut.
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