MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie

[MT Treasurer]

Remington is a Republican pollster the same way PPP is a Democratic pollster. Their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Trump's winning margin and 538 gives them a mean-reverted bias of D+1.1, so the idea that we should just add 5 points or whatever to McCaskill's numbers because of the (R) is silly. Of course she could win, but I don’t get (or, actually I do) why people now think she’s much safer than Heitkamp, lmao. You should probably refrain from bashing Republicans for making "overconfident" predictions when you’re calling this Lean D and "unskewing" polls which don’t show her ahead.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.

It's not Lean D, but it's looking likely to be a 1-3% affair either way at this point.  That is way better shape than anyone thought McCaskill would be in at this point.  In ND, by contrast, Cramer by 10% is a completely plausible outcome.

I agree on MO, but there is no way Cramer +10 is a completely plausible outcome. You guys are seriously underestimating Heitkamp, there is no way she loses by such a large margin in a Democratic wave year, especially if the populists<3 Tester and Manchin are basically safe.

[MT Treasurer]

Women can't qualify for #populism . That's why McCaskill is using the alternative shrill bitch strategy of dragging down Hawley. So far it's working for her.

#Populism is such a fun ideology.

[MT Treasurer]

So it has been confirmed this was not a remington poll and thus not a republican poll, might want to change the title

Don’t rain on their parade.

This race really brings out the worst in Atlas.