MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie

[IceSpear]

Remember when everyone thought McCaskill would get blanched by Ann Wagner literally any Republican?

[IceSpear]

Republicans easily got more votes in the primary. Big momentum for Hawley.

Hot take.

2012:
289,481 D
603,120 R

2018:
605,503 D
663,553 R

[IceSpear]

I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.

It's not Lean D, but it's looking likely to be a 1-3% affair either way at this point.  That is way better shape than anyone thought McCaskill would be in at this point.  In ND, by contrast, Cramer by 10% is a completely plausible outcome.

I agree on MO, but there is no way Cramer +10 is a completely plausible outcome. You guys are seriously underestimating Heitkamp, there is no way she loses by such a large margin in a Democratic wave year, especially if the populists<3 Tester and Manchin are basically safe.

Women can't qualify for #populism . That's why McCaskill is using the alternative shrill bitch strategy of dragging down Hawley. So far it's working for her.

[IceSpear]

2017: I was ridiculed, laughed at, called a troll, etc for stating McCaskill has a shot. Toss up tilt R race.

2018: I am one of the few who are not convinced that she has won the election.

My opinion has not changed on the status of the race but I change my mind on who will win every other hour evening while I am sleeping.

Shouldn't the astrology tell you who wins?