An assessment of Pennsylvania from the 2008 election (user search)
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  An assessment of Pennsylvania from the 2008 election (search mode)
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Author Topic: An assessment of Pennsylvania from the 2008 election  (Read 3039 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,068
« on: August 11, 2018, 09:31:27 PM »
Looking at the book How Barack Obama Won the chapter on PA was particularly striking in how much its prognosis didn't hold up very well...

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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,068
« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2018, 01:59:42 PM »
Pennsylvania isn't Midwestern but it's not "Northeast liberal" either.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,068
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2018, 01:39:32 AM »
The account in the OP suggests Pennsylvania is a highly educated state that distinguishes it from the "industrial Midwest" (I guess the exit polls disproportionately sampled college graduates in big numbers? But the percentage of college graduates is below the national average, which distinguishes it from the rest of the Northeast.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,068
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2018, 09:56:35 AM »
^ Agreed.  Northeastern is not synonymous with Northeastern elite (just as "rust belt" isn't synonymous with the Midwest).
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,068
« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2018, 06:52:57 PM »
It's worth noting that Trump won Upstate NY as well, so Pennslyvania going GOP doesn't make it Midwestern.  But compared to NY or NJ, it has a larger white working class.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,068
« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2018, 01:51:48 AM »
I'm not including Westchester, Rockland and Putnam counties in Upstate.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,068
« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2018, 11:16:53 AM »
I have a copy of the book but it's also on Google books.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068
« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2018, 10:43:13 PM »
From the 2016 exit polls:

$100,000+ household income

New York 55-38 Clinton
Pennsylvania  52-45 Trump

White, college graduate

New York  53-43 Clinton
Pennsylvania  48-48 tie

White, no degree

New York  62-33 Trump
Pennsylvania  64-32 Trump

So the WWC didn't vote that differently between these two Northeastern states, but college graduates and the affluent didn't vote that differently.  More important though is the much larger WWC proportion in Pennsylvania.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068
« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2018, 01:27:45 PM »
I suspect whites with high incomes without college degrees voted overwhelmingly for Trump.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068
« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2018, 09:15:04 AM »
Oh, this was the heading for the assessment of the state:

FORGET IT, THE SUBURBS ARE JUST TOO BLUE FOR THE GOP TO WIN.
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