An assessment of Pennsylvania from the 2008 election (user search)
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  An assessment of Pennsylvania from the 2008 election (search mode)
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Author Topic: An assessment of Pennsylvania from the 2008 election  (Read 2998 times)
TML
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,403


« on: August 16, 2018, 01:04:14 AM »

Yeah but it's not a looney fringe analysis either. Pennsylvania is NOT a uniformly Midwestern state. The East half is very northeastern and cosmopolitan. Philadelphia is way more similar to New York and Jersey City and definitely Baltimore than it is to Altoona, Pittsburgh, and Erie. Granted, the western half is very midwestern.

And it's very hard if not possible for Democrats to win the non-Pittsburgh western half of the state. Back when Dems were the party of Appalachia, it was easier, but now those voters are republican as hell. Dems would be wise to try and boost turnout in Pittsburgh, Erie, Scranton, Philly, as well as Bucks and Montgomery county and the entire Eastern chunk of PA.

Also, wasn't Hillary's problem a lack of turnout in key urban areas?


What cost Hillary in 2016 was a massive shift toward Trump in northeastern PA (20+%). If this shift had been about half of what it actually was, PA would have stayed D.
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TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,403


« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2018, 01:04:26 AM »

It's worth noting that Trump won Upstate NY as well, so Pennslyvania going GOP doesn't make it Midwestern.  But compared to NY or NJ, it has a larger white working class.

If you're talking about geographic coverage, then yes, Trump won upstate.

However, if you're talking about raw vote totals for counties north of Bronx County, then no, Hillary actually won by less than 2%.
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