Which 3 states fall Dem next in this 2020 map?

[Technocracy Timmy]

And in which order do these next 3 states fall first?

EDIT: NE-2 should be Dem.

[MT Treasurer]

[NE-02]
1. Alaska
2. Texas
3. South Carolina

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Obviously it depends on the candidate somewhat. Generally I would say:

MT - elaaaaaasticcc
TX - can't be too far behind AZ and GA

The third one is the hardest. The main candidates are AK, MO, IN, SC, and maybe SD. This is really where the candidate would matter and potential regional strength would come in.

I'll just say the 3rd one is IN, because at least Obama did win that once (obviously that was partly a one time regional effect, but we are starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel here on states that could plausibly vote Dem). Presumably Dems have recovered somewhat with midwestern/rural whites somewhat to win states like Iowa back, that would help in Indiana. And presumably there is decent African American turnout to win states like GA - that helps in Indianapolis and Gary. And presumably Dems are doing well in suburbs to win states like AZ/GA, so that helps reduce the Republican margins in suburban Indianapolis as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously it depends on the candidate somewhat. Generally I would say:

MT - elaaaaaasticcc
TX - can't be too far behind AZ and GA

The third one is the hardest. The main candidates are AK, MO, IN, SC, and maybe SD. This is really where the candidate would matter and potential regional strength would come in.

I'll just say the 3rd one is IN, because at least Obama did win that once (obviously that was partly a one time regional effect, but we are starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel here on states that could plausibly vote Dem). Presumably Dems have recovered somewhat with midwestern/rural whites somewhat to win states like Iowa back, that would help in Indiana. And presumably there is decent African American turnout to win states like GA - that helps in Indianapolis and Gary. And presumably Dems are doing well in suburbs to win states like AZ/GA, so that helps reduce the Republican margins in suburban Indianapolis as well.

Lol. Alaska almost certainly flips before Montana.

[Mr. Smith]

Texas
Alaska
Indiana

[I’m not Stu]

1. Texas
2. Alaska
3. Montana

[Politician]

Texas
Alaska
Missouri

[Technocracy Timmy]

[NE-02]
1. Alaska
2. Texas
3. South Carolina

Why South Carolina? It’s one of the most inelastic states and it’s demographically trending Republican (declining black population share in favor of old white retirees and Asians).

[Skunk]

1. Texas
2. Alaska
3. Mississippi

[MT Treasurer]

[NE-02]
1. Alaska
2. Texas
3. South Carolina

Why South Carolina? It’s one of the most inelastic states and it’s demographically trending Republican (declining black population share in favor of old white retirees and Asians).

I’d say Indiana, Montana, South Carolina, potentially even Missouri are all good third-place contenders here. I’m aware of the state's inelasticity (I worked on some of these trend maps, and SC's lack of any long-term trend really stood out), but with high Black and depressed Republican turnout and an independent/third-party candidate winning a significant share of the vote it could happen. SC/TX going D would point to an absolute Republican collapse in urban/suburban areas, and I assume some of that would be reflected in SC's results as well. But yeah, perhaps some other state like IN would flip before SC.

[ON Progressive]

1. Texas
2. Alaska
3. Montana

Other good candidates for that third spot include Mississippi and Indiana.

[Technocracy Timmy]

[NE-02]
1. Alaska
2. Texas
3. South Carolina

Why South Carolina? It’s one of the most inelastic states and it’s demographically trending Republican (declining black population share in favor of old white retirees and Asians).

I’d say Indiana, Montana, South Carolina, potentially even Missouri are all good third-place contenders here. I’m aware of the state's inelasticity (I worked on some of these trend maps, and SC's lack of any long-term trend really stood out), but with high Black and depressed Republican turnout and an independent/third-party candidate winning a significant share of the vote it could happen. SC/TX going D would point to an absolute Republican collapse in urban/suburban areas, and I assume some of that would be reflected in SC's results as well. But yeah, perhaps some other state like IN would flip before SC.

That makes sense.

[wesmoorenerd]

Texas
Alaska
Missouri

[pops]

Texas, Alaska, then way behind it, Montana

[Zaybay]

Hard to say, as this is probably the D roof for 2020, but if I had to guess:

1. Texas

2. Alaska

3. Montana

but, it could be Utah, if there is a really strong Mormon on the ballot that siphons mostly Trump votes, and the D candidate gets an abnormally large amounts of votes from here.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

And in which order do these next 3 states fall first?

EDIT: NE-2 should be Dem.

1. Montana
2. Alaska
3. Texas

[Orser67]

Texas is easily first. After that, tough call between AK, MT, IN, and MO. I'm skeptical that SC or MS would flip before those other states but I can't rule it out. I could also see South Dakota coming into play; it gave Obama 45% in 2008 (so did North Dakota, but I think the energy boom has moved that state to the right of South Dakota).

[Person Man]

Didn't Hillary do better than Kansas than she did in Missouri?

[I’m not Stu]

Hard to say, as this is probably the D roof for 2020, but if I had to guess:

1. Texas

2. Alaska

3. Montana

but, it could be Utah, if there is a really strong Mormon on the ballot that siphons mostly Trump votes, and the D candidate gets an abnormally large amounts of votes from here.

Kansas flips well before Utah.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Hard to say, as this is probably the D roof for 2020, but if I had to guess:

1. Texas

2. Alaska

3. Montana

but, it could be Utah, if there is a really strong Mormon on the ballot that siphons mostly Trump votes, and the D candidate gets an abnormally large amounts of votes from here.

Kansas flips well before Utah.

It really depends on who the Democrat is. If this is a super popular national consensus Democrat vs Trump, Utah might flip first.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KAMALA HARRIS/TIM RYAN 308
Donald Trump/Pence 230

[Izzyeviel]

1) Missouri
2) Arkansas
3) Nebraska

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

1.) Iowa
2.) OHIO
3.) Arizon