Could the N tape be the October Surprise?

[Illiniwek]

Yeah I have to admit this will basically do nothing. His support among African Americans could swing to almost 0%, but that's about it.

[The Mikado]

Yeah I have to admit this will basically do nothing. His support among African Americans could swing to almost 0%, but that's about it.

It's not about the level of support among blacks (which barely has any room to go down anyway), it's about black turnout levels. Two separate issues. Increasing Democratic turnout among usually low-turnout voters is the most dangerous thing for the GOP before a midterm.

[Chief Justice Keef]

If I've learned anything from the white Republicans I know, it's that they're really angry black people can say the N word but they can't say it.

If Trump was caught saying the N word on tape, his voters would just throw up their hands and say "what's the big deal?". It won't shift a single vote.

[libertpaulian]

When are Democrats going to LEARN that running a "Trump is a big fat meanie!" campaign is completely ineffective and useless?!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here's the likely scenario if the tape is released:

Sitting Republican congressmen and moderates would call Trump's use of the pejorative term "unacceptable" and "not what America's about." Marco Rubio or whoever would call for the president to apologize, which he never will. The Right and Fox News will condemn the leak itself and defend Trump's use of free expression, then pivot to how wonderful the economy is for minorities. #RacistTrump will trend on twitter for a day or so, Democratic pols will lambaste the "outrageous, racist behavior" but then promptly do nothing, and perhaps some anti-Trump demonstrations in NYC will break out. Then, within 48 hours, some other big story will take over the airwaves.

Election Day will come and not a single vote will have shifted. The GOP voters just don't care.

Exactly. If we ever do see it go public, it won't matter. If anything it should be sat on until the last few days leading up to the 2020 election. At least then it might be in the news while he's on the ballot. That's really the only way it will have any impact on Trump's reputation. If it's released any time before that people will forget as the news cycle continues.

[Badger]

No, of course not--it's August.

There are no surprises left.  Trump and the party of Trump are the party of bigots and grifters.  There has been ample evidence of this day after day, month after month, year after year.  

There are, of course, many Obama voters who supported Trump.

Many have turned away from having done so, which explains the Democrats strong lead in the polls, and the Twain quote in my signature defines the rest of such voters.

[The Night Owlditor]

Omarosa obviously has ulterior motives with this accusation and is not a very credible person; however, I'd reckon that Mango Mussolini caught on tape saying the N word would only strengthen his numbers with the Deplorables.

[Badger]

Omarosa obviously has ulterior motives with this accusation and is not a very credible person; however, I'd reckon that Mango Mussolini caught on tape saying the N word would only strengthen his numbers with the Deplorables.

The American electorate would be staunchly divided between those whites and minorities more offended about such slurs being used or hurled at one of their own, vs. the rest who are more concerned with they or one of their own getting punched for using such a slur.

[Bea O'Problem]

Is the tape even real?

[politicallefty]

When are Democrats going to LEARN that running a "Trump is a big fat meanie!" campaign is completely ineffective and useless?!

Exactly. What part of "Trump could shoot someone on 5th Avenue" do you guys not get? We should already know this stuff doesn't work because it didn't at all in 2016. Anyone else would've been destroyed by the Access Hollywood tape. Not Trump. I really don't think there is anything he could say or do that would separate him from his core base. He can be beaten, but not like that.

[The Mikado]

When are Democrats going to LEARN that running a "Trump is a big fat meanie!" campaign is completely ineffective and useless?!

Exactly. What part of "Trump could shoot someone on 5th Avenue" do you guys not get? We should already know this stuff doesn't work because it didn't at all in 2016. Anyone else would've been destroyed by the Access Hollywood tape. Not Trump. I really don't think there is anything he could say or do that would separate him from his core base. He can be beaten, but not like that.

Again, the point here isn't peeling away people from Trump, it's about energizing his opponents and increasing Democratic turnout. No one is actually under any delusions that racism would somehow turn off Trump voters.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No, it will be the whitey tape.

I was going to guess that David Brock was involved here too, but I don't think he actually gets along with any black women.

[Bea O'Problem]

When are Democrats going to LEARN that running a "Trump is a big fat meanie!" campaign is completely ineffective and useless?!

Exactly. What part of "Trump could shoot someone on 5th Avenue" do you guys not get? We should already know this stuff doesn't work because it didn't at all in 2016. Anyone else would've been destroyed by the Access Hollywood tape. Not Trump. I really don't think there is anything he could say or do that would separate him from his core base. He can be beaten, but not like that.

Would the unlikely mistake of accidentally appointing a liberal judge (if Kavanaugh is surprisingly blocked; Collins, Murkowski, Manchin, Heitkamp, and Donnelly voting no) to the Supreme Court separate Trump from his core base, or would they still support him?

[Dwarven Dragon]

When are Democrats going to LEARN that running a "Trump is a big fat meanie!" campaign is completely ineffective and useless?!

Exactly. What part of "Trump could shoot someone on 5th Avenue" do you guys not get? We should already know this stuff doesn't work because it didn't at all in 2016. Anyone else would've been destroyed by the Access Hollywood tape. Not Trump. I really don't think there is anything he could say or do that would separate him from his core base. He can be beaten, but not like that.

Would the unlikely mistake of accidentally appointing a liberal judge (if Kavanaugh is surprisingly blocked; Collins, Murkowski, Manchin, Heitkamp, and Donnelly voting no) to the Supreme Court separate Trump from his core base, or would they still support him?

This wouldn't necessarily lower his support overnight, but it would do it in the context of Trump suffering an embarrassing second defeat of a supreme court nominee. As we saw with the Mark Bennett nomination (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=2&vote=00145), if Trump picks a liberal, there is a large proportion of the Republican Caucus that will simply vote No. And you wouldn't have the entire democratic caucus pushing the nominee over the finish line this time - there's an echleon of about 30 or so democrats who would vote against literally any Trump Supreme Court nominee, even one they 100% agreed with ideologically. So a liberal SCOTUS nominee would just fail on the Senate floor.

If you just mean a moderate-conservative, then in that case it might actually increase Trump's support, since that sort of nominee might meet the old 60 vote threshold, which Trump could easily sell as evidence of how he's a great dealmaker.

[Bea O'Problem]

When are Democrats going to LEARN that running a "Trump is a big fat meanie!" campaign is completely ineffective and useless?!

Exactly. What part of "Trump could shoot someone on 5th Avenue" do you guys not get? We should already know this stuff doesn't work because it didn't at all in 2016. Anyone else would've been destroyed by the Access Hollywood tape. Not Trump. I really don't think there is anything he could say or do that would separate him from his core base. He can be beaten, but not like that.

Would the unlikely mistake of accidentally appointing a liberal judge (if Kavanaugh is surprisingly blocked; Collins, Murkowski, Manchin, Heitkamp, and Donnelly voting no) to the Supreme Court separate Trump from his core base, or would they still support him?

This wouldn't necessarily lower his support overnight, but it would do it in the context of Trump suffering an embarrassing second defeat of a supreme court nominee. As we saw with the Mark Bennett nomination (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=2&vote=00145), if Trump picks a liberal, there is a large proportion of the Republican Caucus that will simply vote No. And you wouldn't have the entire democratic caucus pushing the nominee over the finish line this time - there's an echleon of about 30 or so democrats who would vote against literally any Trump Supreme Court nominee, even one they 100% agreed with ideologically. So a liberal SCOTUS nominee would just fail on the Senate floor.

If you just mean a moderate-conservative, then in that case it might actually increase Trump's support, since that sort of nominee might meet the old 60 vote threshold, which Trump could easily sell as evidence of how he's a great dealmaker.

Even a moderate conservative would cost Trump his base.

[President Johnson]

It doesn't matter. Trump wouldn't lose much support even if he said "Yes, I'm racist and sexist, deal with it". It's to point out the corruption and the losing on every front (to put in his own words) that takes place.

[หมูเด้ง]

It will probably be acceptable to use the N word at this rate. Or at least that is more likely than it damaging Trump or the GOP.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I wonder what president hasn't used such language. I consider this VERY presidential behavior.

Indeed

[Mike Thick]

I’d honestly rather stick with the status quo than have half the population suddenly start arguing that it’s ok for white people to say the N word

[Adam Griffin]

It's already been said, but this would definitely be a turnout factor more than a persuasion factor. Such a development could dramatically boost black turnout (and I'd argue youth turnout to some degree as well) and midterms - especially this one as it appears to be unfolding - all come down to turnout. There'd be a pretty big difference in outcome between DEM turnout being at 70% of 2016 and GOP turnout at 60% of 2016, and DEM turnout at 75%/GOP turnout at 60%.

[Koharu]

I don't think the tape exists. It would have come out in 2016 if it did.

Omsrosa claimed to have heard a description of it in her book, but then in her interview on NPR she claimed she actually heard it. I find all of that suspicious. I have a really hard time believing a tape exists and wasn't leaked already.

https://www.npr.org/2018/08/10/636955054/omarosa-tells-npr-she-heard-trump-n-word-tape-contradicting-her-own-tell-all-boo

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Here's the likely scenario if the tape is released:

Sitting Republican congressmen and moderates would call Trump's use of the pejorative term "unacceptable" and "not what America's about." Marco Rubio or whoever would call for the president to apologize, which he never will. The Right and Fox News will condemn the leak itself and defend Trump's use of free expression, then pivot to how wonderful the economy is for minorities. #RacistTrump will trend on twitter for a day or so, Democratic pols will lambaste the "outrageous, racist behavior" but then promptly do nothing, and perhaps some anti-Trump demonstrations in NYC will break out. Then, within 48 hours, some other big story will take over the airwaves.

Election Day will come and not a single vote will have shifted. The GOP voters just don't care.

The sad truth.

[mencken]

Is there any reason to believe Trump is racist or prejudiced against blacks? At least Mexicans and Muslims (neither of which are races) one could make a reasonably strong case for; from what I can tell Trump seems to view blacks with enchantment.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is there any reason to believe Trump is racist or prejudiced against blacks? At least Mexicans and Muslims (neither of which are races) one could make a reasonably strong case for; from what I can tell Trump seems to view blacks with enchantment.

Well, him and his father did discriminate against them renting in their buildings. He also stands firm in believing that the exonerated "Central Park Five" are still guilty. Those are just two examples, but it is almost certainly part of a pattern on how he views anyone who isn't like him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/abbydphillip/status/1029324611069124608