ME: Suffolk University: Surprisingly tight race between Mills (D) and Moody (R)

[MAINEiac4434]

Can someone explain to me again why the Senate race is using RCV but not the Governor race?

Maine constitution explicitly calls for a plurality of votes, federal constitution does not.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ah, Christ, those Moody numbers. “He’s so friendly and affable!” HES GOING TO KILL MORE JOBS AND MORE PEOPLE YOU MORONS

Alan Caron and Terry Hayes can get bent, too.

[MAINEiac4434]

Digging into these numbers, they seem a bit R-friendly. I find it hard to believe Trump is only at -14 in approval here, and that LePage is lower. Also only at +3 in approval of ranked choice voting, when it won in a landslide two months ago.

[MAINEiac4434]

Is it just me, or is Hayes underperforming? Seems likely to be a consequence of not having RCV.

Could we actually not see a third-party candidate get 5+% for the first time since 1982?

She’s been hamstrung by LePage withholding clean elections funds for purely partisan reasons. She only had $91K COH until the funds were finally released yesterday. She’s also continuing to do her job as State Treasurer which limits her campaigning ability (but Mills is also still doing her job as AG, and it isn’t limiting her campaigning).

Is it just me, or is Hayes underperforming? Seems likely to be a consequence of not having RCV.

Could we actually not see a third-party candidate get 5+% for the first time since 1982?

Why do independents always get over 5% in Maine statewide elections? In California, Insurance Commissioner candidate Steve Poizner will be the first independent in decades to break 10% statewide.

Roughly 2/3 of Mainers are registered independents, and Maine has history of independent streaks even in its partisan politics.

[MAINEiac4434]

Why can't Maine pass a state constitutional amendment to allow RCV for state elections?

Republican Governor and State Senate.

[MAINEiac4434]

Anyways, why is the poll surprising? This is a state that elected Paul LePage twice. Maine is a weird place.

Maine is basically the Montana of New England in that it is often stereotyped as a solid blue state where only moderate/liberal Republicans can win in good years.

TBF hard right-wingers have not won here in good Democrat years ever since the state stopped being a the geographical arm of the Republican Party in the 1950s.

In fact, I'd argue that, relative to the nation at the time, LePage might be the most right-wing person elected in Maine since the end of World War II.

[MAINEiac4434]

Suffolk is a very bad pollster.

Based on?

They have a pretty sterling track record in MA. They were the first pollster to put Scott Brown ahead in 2010, and from what I can quickly check, have gotten every major race in the last decade within a point or two. They're also pretty outstanding in NH – one of few pollsters to put Sununu ahead in NH '16 and generally quite accurate beyond that.

This appears to be their first time polling ME. But I trust them above almost all else when it comes to polling New England.

On the ground this poll feels right. Maybe Trumps approvals are a little high and LePage's are a little low.

I'm inclined to believe it.