ME: Suffolk University: Surprisingly tight race between Mills (D) and Moody (R)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:15:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  ME: Suffolk University: Surprisingly tight race between Mills (D) and Moody (R)
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: ME: Suffolk University: Surprisingly tight race between Mills (D) and Moody (R)  (Read 2632 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 08, 2018, 10:54:00 AM »

New Poll: Maine Governor by Suffolk University on 2018-08-06

Summary: D: 39%, R: 39%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

This November, the election for GOVERNOR will NOT include ranked choice voting.

10. If the General Election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were:
Independent Alan Caron, Independent Teresa Hayes, Democrat Janet Mills, or
Republican Shawn Moody, for whom would you vote, or toward whom would you
LEAN, at this time?

39.0% Shawn Moody (R)
38.8% Janet Mills (D)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2018, 11:08:31 AM »

Favourable ratings:

Shawn Moody (R)

46% favourable (+18)
28% unfavourable
  8% never heard
18% undecided

Janet Mills (D)

44% favourable (+12)
32% unfavourable
  7% never heard
17% undecided

Donald Trump (R)

41% favourable (-13)
54% unfavourable
  0% never heard
  5% undecided
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2018, 11:21:00 AM »

Democrats had to nominate Mills, didn't they Unsure

Toss-Up, at this point. Crazy to think Democrats might blow a winnable race here two cycles in a row, one in a D wave.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2018, 11:30:22 AM »

Can someone explain to me again why the Senate race is using RCV but not the Governor race?
Logged
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2018, 11:42:40 AM »

Can someone explain to me again why the Senate race is using RCV but not the Governor race?
RCV violates the Maine Constitutional with regards to state elected offices. Which is funny because the whole stunt with RCV came to be because democrats were still upset over the 2010 gov race.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2018, 11:55:15 AM »

Seems about right
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2018, 11:57:17 AM »

Tossup, maybe Tilt D.
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2018, 12:01:15 PM »

Can someone explain to me again why the Senate race is using RCV but not the Governor race?
Maine constitution explicitly calls for a plurality of votes, federal constitution does not.
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2018, 12:02:31 PM »

Ah, Christ, those Moody numbers. “He’s so friendly and affable!” HES GOING TO KILL MORE JOBS AND MORE PEOPLE YOU MORONS

Alan Caron and Terry Hayes can get bent, too.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2018, 12:08:49 PM »

There is nothing surprising about this, and I’m not sure why many people (including the "experts") thought ME was as likely to flip as IL or NM lol.
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2018, 12:09:50 PM »

Digging into these numbers, they seem a bit R-friendly. I find it hard to believe Trump is only at -14 in approval here, and that LePage is lower. Also only at +3 in approval of ranked choice voting, when it won in a landslide two months ago.
Logged
CapoteMonster
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 486
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.49, S: -2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2018, 12:21:27 PM »

This poll shows millis trailing among 18-34 year olds but leading among every other age group. That's just weird.
Logged
TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2018, 12:28:54 PM »

Is it just me, or is Hayes underperforming? Seems likely to be a consequence of not having RCV.

Could we actually not see a third-party candidate get 5+% for the first time since 1982? Tongue
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2018, 12:29:48 PM »

Guys, a poll with so many undecideds is not a poll we should take seriously. 20% is a large number, and if any info is to be believed that we have received so far, the Us will go Dem.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,764
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2018, 12:33:55 PM »

Lean R
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2018, 12:38:28 PM »

Is it just me, or is Hayes underperforming? Seems likely to be a consequence of not having RCV.

Could we actually not see a third-party candidate get 5+% for the first time since 1982? Tongue
Why do independents always get over 5% in Maine statewide elections? In California, Insurance Commissioner candidate Steve Poizner will be the first independent in decades to break 10% statewide.
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2018, 12:41:12 PM »

Is it just me, or is Hayes underperforming? Seems likely to be a consequence of not having RCV.

Could we actually not see a third-party candidate get 5+% for the first time since 1982? Tongue
She’s been hamstrung by LePage withholding clean elections funds for purely partisan reasons. She only had $91K COH until the funds were finally released yesterday. She’s also continuing to do her job as State Treasurer which limits her campaigning ability (but Mills is also still doing her job as AG, and it isn’t limiting her campaigning).

Is it just me, or is Hayes underperforming? Seems likely to be a consequence of not having RCV.

Could we actually not see a third-party candidate get 5+% for the first time since 1982? Tongue
Why do independents always get over 5% in Maine statewide elections? In California, Insurance Commissioner candidate Steve Poizner will be the first independent in decades to break 10% statewide.
Roughly 2/3 of Mainers are registered independents, and Maine has history of independent streaks even in its partisan politics.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2018, 12:42:07 PM »

Guys, a poll with so many undecideds is not a poll we should take seriously. 20% is a large number, and if any info is to be believed that we have received so far, the Us will go Dem.

There are 2 independent candidates that polled 3 and 4 %. It has almost the same amount of undecideds (around 15%) than the Senate poll. It doesn't mean it's useless, but it adds a high amount of uncertainty.

Anyways, why is the poll surprising? This is a state that elected Paul LePage twice. Maine is a weird place.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2018, 12:50:20 PM »

Why can't Maine pass a state constitutional amendment to allow RCV for state elections?
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,764
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2018, 01:11:44 PM »

Guys, a poll with so many undecideds is not a poll we should take seriously. 20% is a large number, and if any info is to be believed that we have received so far, the Us will go Dem.

Yeah, Adam Cote was a splendid candidate, Mills in not exciting
Logged
_
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,103
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2018, 01:17:39 PM »

Good job ME Dems!
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2018, 04:48:52 PM »

Why can't Maine pass a state constitutional amendment to allow RCV for state elections?
Republican Governor and State Senate.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,764
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2018, 07:45:52 PM »

Moody is the type of GOPer to get elected in the state of ME
Logged
Canis
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,509


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2018, 07:57:35 PM »

This election was always gonna be close
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2018, 10:08:37 PM »

Anyways, why is the poll surprising? This is a state that elected Paul LePage twice. Maine is a weird place.

Maine is basically the Montana of New England in that it is often stereotyped as a solid blue state where only moderate/liberal Republicans can win in good years.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 13 queries.