ME: Suffolk University: Surprisingly tight race between Mills (D) and Moody (R)

[MAINEiac4434]

Anyways, why is the poll surprising? This is a state that elected Paul LePage twice. Maine is a weird place.

Maine is basically the Montana of New England in that it is often stereotyped as a solid blue state where only moderate/liberal Republicans can win in good years.

TBF hard right-wingers have not won here in good Democrat years ever since the state stopped being a the geographical arm of the Republican Party in the 1950s.

In fact, I'd argue that, relative to the nation at the time, LePage might be the most right-wing person elected in Maine since the end of World War II.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyways, why is the poll surprising? This is a state that elected Paul LePage twice. Maine is a weird place.

Maine is basically the Montana of New England in that it is often stereotyped as a solid blue state where only moderate/liberal Republicans can win in good years.

TBF hard right-wingers have not won here in good Democrat years ever since the state stopped being a the geographical arm of the Republican Party in the 1950s.

In fact, I'd argue that, relative to the nation at the time, LePage might be the most right-wing person elected in Maine since the end of World War II.

Fair enough, I just find this forum's weird notion that ME is basically just a slightly more Republican version of VT bordered by a libertarian, conservative, independent, swingy, ultra-competitive paradise ridiculously absurd and simplistic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the type of year that Dems can win some rural governorships and GOP can win some urban goverships. Normal trends maynot hold😀

[Ebsy]

Suffolk is a very bad pollster.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mills is kneck and kneck due to the fact she isn't charismatic enough. This will be tight to the end, and she can lose.

[Senator Incitatus]

Suffolk is a very bad pollster.

Based on?

They have a pretty sterling track record in MA. They were the first pollster to put Scott Brown ahead in 2010, and from what I can quickly check, have gotten every major race in the last decade within a point or two. They're also pretty outstanding in NH – one of few pollsters to put Sununu ahead in NH '16 and generally quite accurate beyond that.

This appears to be their first time polling ME. But I trust them above almost all else when it comes to polling New England.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its not a slam dunk for J.Mills.

[MAINEiac4434]

Suffolk is a very bad pollster.

Based on?

They have a pretty sterling track record in MA. They were the first pollster to put Scott Brown ahead in 2010, and from what I can quickly check, have gotten every major race in the last decade within a point or two. They're also pretty outstanding in NH – one of few pollsters to put Sununu ahead in NH '16 and generally quite accurate beyond that.

This appears to be their first time polling ME. But I trust them above almost all else when it comes to polling New England.

On the ground this poll feels right. Maybe Trumps approvals are a little high and LePage's are a little low.

I'm inclined to believe it.

[MT Treasurer]

So I just noticed this...

Women: Mills +19 (48% Mills, 29% Moody)
Men: Moody +21 (50% Moody, 29% Mills)

*thinking*

[IceSpear]

So I just noticed this...

Women: Mills +19 (48% Mills, 29% Moody)
Men: Moody +21 (50% Moody, 29% Mills)

*thinking*

That's a way bigger gender gap than NH.

Might want to switch to Angry ME Women.

[MT Treasurer]

So I just noticed this...

Women: Mills +19 (48% Mills, 29% Moody)
Men: Moody +21 (50% Moody, 29% Mills)

*thinking*

That's a way bigger gender gap than NH.

Might want to switch to Angry ME Women.

Seems like ME women are giving their NH counterparts a run for their money. What’s interesting is the difference in the male vote, as Democrats seem to have a hard, unshakable floor of about 44% with NH males that they don’t have in ME. Does anyone know why ME men are so much more high-energy than NH males?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race shouldn't be close at all, Mills should be ahead, but Moody has a shot.