ME: Suffolk University: Surprisingly tight race between Mills (D) and Moody (R)
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  ME: Suffolk University: Surprisingly tight race between Mills (D) and Moody (R)
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Author Topic: ME: Suffolk University: Surprisingly tight race between Mills (D) and Moody (R)  (Read 2324 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 08, 2018, 10:54:00 AM »

New Poll: Maine Governor by Suffolk University on 2018-08-06

Summary: D: 39%, R: 39%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

This November, the election for GOVERNOR will NOT include ranked choice voting.

10. If the General Election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were:
Independent Alan Caron, Independent Teresa Hayes, Democrat Janet Mills, or
Republican Shawn Moody, for whom would you vote, or toward whom would you
LEAN, at this time?

39.0% Shawn Moody (R)
38.8% Janet Mills (D)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2018, 11:08:31 AM »

Favourable ratings:

Shawn Moody (R)

46% favourable (+18)
28% unfavourable
  8% never heard
18% undecided

Janet Mills (D)

44% favourable (+12)
32% unfavourable
  7% never heard
17% undecided

Donald Trump (R)

41% favourable (-13)
54% unfavourable
  0% never heard
  5% undecided
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Xing (reluctantly no longer on strike)
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2018, 11:21:00 AM »

Democrats had to nominate Mills, didn't they Unsure

Toss-Up, at this point. Crazy to think Democrats might blow a winnable race here two cycles in a row, one in a D wave.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2018, 11:30:22 AM »

Can someone explain to me again why the Senate race is using RCV but not the Governor race?
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2018, 11:42:40 AM »

Can someone explain to me again why the Senate race is using RCV but not the Governor race?
RCV violates the Maine Constitutional with regards to state elected offices. Which is funny because the whole stunt with RCV came to be because democrats were still upset over the 2010 gov race.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2018, 11:55:15 AM »

Seems about right
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Politician
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2018, 11:57:17 AM »

Tossup, maybe Tilt D.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2018, 12:01:15 PM »

Can someone explain to me again why the Senate race is using RCV but not the Governor race?
Maine constitution explicitly calls for a plurality of votes, federal constitution does not.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2018, 12:02:31 PM »

Ah, Christ, those Moody numbers. Hes so friendly and affable! HES GOING TO KILL MORE JOBS AND MORE PEOPLE YOU MORONS

Alan Caron and Terry Hayes can get bent, too.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2018, 12:08:49 PM »

There is nothing surprising about this, and Im not sure why many people (including the "experts") thought ME was as likely to flip as IL or NM lol.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2018, 12:09:50 PM »

Digging into these numbers, they seem a bit R-friendly. I find it hard to believe Trump is only at -14 in approval here, and that LePage is lower. Also only at +3 in approval of ranked choice voting, when it won in a landslide two months ago.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2018, 12:21:27 PM »

This poll shows millis trailing among 18-34 year olds but leading among every other age group. That's just weird.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2018, 12:28:54 PM »

Is it just me, or is Hayes underperforming? Seems likely to be a consequence of not having RCV.

Could we actually not see a third-party candidate get 5+% for the first time since 1982? Tongue
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Zaybay
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2018, 12:29:48 PM »

Guys, a poll with so many undecideds is not a poll we should take seriously. 20% is a large number, and if any info is to be believed that we have received so far, the Us will go Dem.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2018, 12:33:55 PM »

Lean R
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Marv Murchins needs a tetanus shot
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« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2018, 12:38:28 PM »

Is it just me, or is Hayes underperforming? Seems likely to be a consequence of not having RCV.

Could we actually not see a third-party candidate get 5+% for the first time since 1982? Tongue
Why do independents always get over 5% in Maine statewide elections? In California, Insurance Commissioner candidate Steve Poizner will be the first independent in decades to break 10% statewide.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2018, 12:41:12 PM »

Is it just me, or is Hayes underperforming? Seems likely to be a consequence of not having RCV.

Could we actually not see a third-party candidate get 5+% for the first time since 1982? Tongue
Shes been hamstrung by LePage withholding clean elections funds for purely partisan reasons. She only had $91K COH until the funds were finally released yesterday. Shes also continuing to do her job as State Treasurer which limits her campaigning ability (but Mills is also still doing her job as AG, and it isnt limiting her campaigning).

Is it just me, or is Hayes underperforming? Seems likely to be a consequence of not having RCV.

Could we actually not see a third-party candidate get 5+% for the first time since 1982? Tongue
Why do independents always get over 5% in Maine statewide elections? In California, Insurance Commissioner candidate Steve Poizner will be the first independent in decades to break 10% statewide.
Roughly 2/3 of Mainers are registered independents, and Maine has history of independent streaks even in its partisan politics.
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Skye
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« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2018, 12:42:07 PM »

Guys, a poll with so many undecideds is not a poll we should take seriously. 20% is a large number, and if any info is to be believed that we have received so far, the Us will go Dem.

There are 2 independent candidates that polled 3 and 4 %. It has almost the same amount of undecideds (around 15%) than the Senate poll. It doesn't mean it's useless, but it adds a high amount of uncertainty.

Anyways, why is the poll surprising? This is a state that elected Paul LePage twice. Maine is a weird place.
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Marv Murchins needs a tetanus shot
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« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2018, 12:50:20 PM »

Why can't Maine pass a state constitutional amendment to allow RCV for state elections?
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2018, 01:11:44 PM »

Guys, a poll with so many undecideds is not a poll we should take seriously. 20% is a large number, and if any info is to be believed that we have received so far, the Us will go Dem.

Yeah, Adam Cote was a splendid candidate, Mills in not exciting
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2018, 01:17:39 PM »

Good job ME Dems!
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2018, 04:48:52 PM »

Why can't Maine pass a state constitutional amendment to allow RCV for state elections?
Republican Governor and State Senate.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2018, 07:45:52 PM »

Moody is the type of GOPer to get elected in the state of ME
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Canis
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« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2018, 07:57:35 PM »

This election was always gonna be close
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2018, 10:08:37 PM »

Anyways, why is the poll surprising? This is a state that elected Paul LePage twice. Maine is a weird place.

Maine is basically the Montana of New England in that it is often stereotyped as a solid blue state where only moderate/liberal Republicans can win in good years.
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