2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st) (user search)
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  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 47813 times)
urutzizu
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Posts: 587
« on: May 25, 2019, 10:42:39 AM »

So with Center-Left Opposition and JCP forming alliances in all the battleground 1- member districts the medium case for the 2019 July Upper House election would be for the Constitutional Revision bloc to lose its 2/3 majority and with it Abe's goals of Constitutional revision.   I think now we can get a real sense of what Abe's true priorities are.   If he does value Constitutional revision above else he should actually go ahead and call a Lower House election and have a double election as a referendum on Constitutional revision. If there is a pro-LDP wave from this issue this should be enough for the pro-Constitutional revision forces to win 2/3 in both houses.  If not then Abe's would lose seats in the Lower House and his leadership stature diminished.  The window is closing fast for Abe to do this.   

I think Abe wants the Issue more than Constitutional revision itself. A revision would be solely symbolic in nature anyway.
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urutzizu
Jr. Member
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Posts: 587
« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2019, 09:17:29 AM »

Great Maps. Is there a reason for the JCP strength around Kyoto and Kochi?
I seem to remember that these were the also the only two district seats that JCP won back in 1996.
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urutzizu
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Posts: 587
« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2019, 10:53:31 AM »

I could actually see the opposite narrative working better, that returning the strong and stable incumbent Government is needed to see the Olympics through. This argument was instrumental in returning Korean pro-military President Roh Tae-woo (노태우) in 1987, ahead of the Seoul Olympics. Given the Cultural Similarities, the Idea that screwing up an Olympics would be perhaps the worst way of collectively losing face, a nightmare in E.Asian cultures, and the Fact that the Japanese Opposition is seen as anything but a safe pair of hands, I could see this working very well. 
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