2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New Era/Period for Japan will be 令和(Reiwa)

do you think this is a good name?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NHK poll came in with a drop in Abe Cabinet approval  and LDP support

what is the likeliest explanation for this?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) finally return to the Diet? I am not sure if he is completely free of cancer, but his return will be interesting to watch. I am also curious whether his daughter will continue to stay in LDP or cross over to JRP after the election.

JRP will win 4-5 seats on the PR slate.  It is pretty much a certainty that 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) will be in the top 3 if not the top vote winner in the JRP list so he will for sure be elected.  In 2017  Suzuki  ran in the NPD PR slate while his daughter ran on the LDP PR slate.  So there is no reason why their cannot hedge their bets by being in 2 different parties.

Both of them being in parliament is poor political etiquette.  Just like the old English rule on one daughter from a family and be a Débutante  at a time Japanese politics has a similar unwritten rule that only one member of a political clan can be in active politics at the same time.  The Suzukis are breaking this etiquette.

 

https://bunshun.jp/articles/-/2366
This is an interesting in-depth article I found re: Takako and Muneo Suzuki.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how much is actually riding on the election result?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

why does the media use red for the LDP and not green?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the LDP gambit to win 2 of 3 seats in Hokkaido paid off.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

福島(Fukushima) was called for LDP fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor OPPN.  Likewise 愛媛(Ehime) was called for OPPN fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor LDP.  The personal vote played a big role in both

why is the LDP losing Nagano?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how well is the anti-NHK party doing?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

does Fukushima prefecture like the LDP more than others in Tohoku?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Miyagi goes CDP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.

Not 100% sure. The outstanding vote is deep urban areas which should have CDP lean.  Still JRP should have the upper hand.

I was wrong.  NHK called last seat in 東京(Tokyo) for JRP.

Not necessarily incorrect? I thought you said it wasn't a certainty. By proxy, I was saying the same thing, just with a higher lever of probability.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.
Chalk it down to a talented challenger?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.

The party's representation in the House of Councilors is generally stronger than it was in the post-2000 era and especially stronger than it was in the 90s, isn't it?
This election isn't particularly bad except relative to expectations. It's inarguable they under-performed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.

The party's representation in the House of Councilors is generally stronger than it was in the post-2000 era and especially stronger than it was in the 90s, wasn't it?

2007 for sure was a bad year for LDP

By definition, yeah. It's probably (clearly?) their worse HoC election in the post-1993 era.