2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 47817 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #600 on: July 29, 2019, 07:09:52 PM »

The race in 鹿児島(Kagoshima) was interesting since there a significant LDP rebel rose to take on the LDP incumbent in addition to the OPPN candidate.  The result was

LDP          47.35%
OPPN        34.40%
LDP rebel  18.25%

PR breakdown
LDP     43.54%
KP       14.51%
JRP       7.16%
Protest  1.95% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      5.06%
CDP    13.35%
Left      8.26% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      5.78%
EP        0.40%

Using regression analysis of similar districts I conclude that had the LDP rebel not run the result should have been

LDP   61.49%
OPPN 38.51%

In many FPTP races when there is a LDP rebel running often that drives Opposition votes toward the LDP rebel or the official LDP candidate.  This time for once the LDP rebel took more from the LDP candidate than OPPN if my regression is correct.

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jaichind
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« Reply #601 on: July 29, 2019, 09:36:01 PM »

ex-YP leader 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) who was elected on the JRP PR list in 2016 but have since became an independent and reformed the YP has decided to caucus with PNHK.  Now on paper PNHK will have 3 MPs since disgraced 丸山穂高(Maruyama Hodaka) also joined PNHK just a day ago.  It seems PNHK's goal is to get to 5 MPs so they can be eligible for government funding as they failed to pass the 2% threshold on the PR slate to qualify for funding.
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jaichind
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« Reply #602 on: July 30, 2019, 04:12:37 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2019, 07:13:39 AM by jaichind »

The KP PR results are interesting and the looking at them gives clear signs of their mobilization  strategy.    

KP's main goals on PR is to: show their power to their LDP partners so LDP would be too scared to dump KP.  The way they do that is to concentrate their votes on to their top N PR candidates.  In this case N = 6 which means KP targeted getting getting a minimum 6 PR seats even though they ended up with 7.  The PR personal vote are

 Candidate                                   Votes          Tenure
山本香苗 (Yamamoto Kanae)           594K       First elected 2001
山本博司 (Yamamoto Hiroshi)          472K       First elected 2007
若松謙維(Kaneshige Wakamatsu)     342K       First elected 2013 (but had been Lower House before)
河野義博(Kawano Yoshihiro)              329K       First elected 2013
新妻秀規(Niizuma Hideki)                281K       First elected 2013
平木大作(Hiraki Daisaku)                183K       First elected 2019
塩田博昭(Shiota Hiroaki)                  15K        First elected 2019
#8 candidate                                   8K
...
...
...

Note the massive drop-off after the 6th candidate.

The KP also allocated "prefectures" to each of the top 6 candidates where 50%-60% of the said prefecture PR vote went to the PR candidate that got assigned to it and the vast majority of the remaining KP PR vote in the prefecture are a party vote for KP.  The prefecture allocations are

山本香苗 (Yamamoto Kanae): 福井(Fukui), 滋賀(Shiga), 京都(Kyoto), 大阪(Osaka), 奈良(Nara), 和歌山   (Wakayama)

山本博司 (Yamamoto Hiroshi): 鳥取(Tottori), 島根(Shimane), 岡山(Okayama), 広島(Hiroshima), 山口(Yamaguchi), 徳島(Tokushima), 香川(Kagawa), 愛媛(Ehime), 高知(Kōchi)

若松謙維(Kaneshige Wakamatsu): 北海道(Hokkaido),青森(Aomori), 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 秋田(Akita), 山形(Yamagata), 福島(Fukushima)

河野義博(Kawano Yoshihiro): 佐賀(Saga). 長崎(Nagasaki), 熊本(Kumamoto), 大分(Ōita), 宮崎(Miyazaki), 鹿児島(Kagoshima), 沖縄(Okinawa)

平木大作(Hiraki Daisaku): 富山(Toyama), 石川(Ishikawa), 岐阜(Gifu),  静岡(Shizuoka), 三重(Mie)

塩田博昭(Shiota Hiroaki): 茨城(Ibarak)i, 栃木(Tochigi), 群馬(Gunma), 千葉(Chiba), 山梨(Yamanashi), 新潟(Niigata)

In all these "assigned" prefectures the result was the same: 60%-70% of the KP PR vote for the assigned PR candidate, 1%-2% for other KP PR candidates, rest vote for KP party without a candidate.  The main exception are the prefectures assigned to the 6th and least tenured candidate out of the 6 塩田博昭(Shiota Hiroaki) where the results look like 15%-20% of the PR vote goes to the assigned KP PR candidate, 3%-4% goes to other KP PR candidates and the rest goes to KP the party.  I guess the idea is that as the least tenured of the 6 he gets the least level of mobilization.  

The 6 prefectures where there a PR candidate was not assigned are: 埼玉(Saitama), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 東京(Tokyo), 愛知(Aichi), 兵庫(Hyōgo), 福岡(Fukuoka)

This list are the 6 out of 7 prefectures where a KP candidate was contesting the district race.  Only 大阪(Osaka) out of the 7 was assigned a PR candidate.  In these 6 prefectures it is 4%-9% of the KP PR vote are scatter among the KP PR candidates while the rest are for the KP party.

Prefecture                   KP PR vote  KP district vote    Ratio
埼玉(Saitama)                14.50%            19.12%        131.88%
神奈川(Kanagawa)        11.33%            16.89%        149.09%
東京(Tokyo)                    11.54%            14.18%        122.90%
愛知(Aichi)                     13.07%             15.82%        121.00%
大阪(Osaka)                   15.71%             16.93%        107.77%
兵庫(Hyōgo)                   14.90%             22.91%        153.79%
福岡(Fukuoka)               16.10%              22.84%        141.87%

So now it is clear what the KP High command assessment of the station:

Out out of the 7 district seats KP is contesting, 大阪(Osaka) seems safe.   In 愛知(Aichi), 兵庫(Hyōgo), and 福岡(Fukuoka) we have a non-incumbent running so we have to mobilize there to make sure they are elected.   There are signs that high turnout in 神奈川(Kanagawa) and 埼玉(Saitama) could mean we could lose so we make to mobilize there as well.  For 東京(Tokyo) our party leader is running so we better make sure we mobilize so he does not lose face by winning by a small margin.  For the rest of the prefectures including 大阪(Osaka) lets mobilize there to make sure our voters vote for the assigned PR candidate.  Oh, hold off on our efforts for 塩田博昭(Shiota Hiroaki) in 茨城(Ibarak)i, 栃木(Tochigi), 群馬(Gunma), 千葉(Chiba), 山梨(Yamanashi), 新潟(Niigata) since he is new and does not deserve an all out effort for our tenured PR candidates.

Since what KP wants their cadres to do is what exactly takes place it is easy to construct the orders/edits of KP High Command by looking at the results.
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jaichind
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« Reply #603 on: July 31, 2019, 07:07:07 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2019, 12:03:37 PM by jaichind »

One thing that got demonstrated at by the Upper House elections is that a Center-Left-JCP alliance in 1- member district can work on mass basis which span DPP to JCP.  I did some district by district analysis and assuming turnout rises which would help CDP I think a possible Lower House election result with such a broad opposition alliance would be something like

Prefecture               Seats     LDP-KP  Grand Alliance   JRP    
北海道(Hokkaido)       12           5                7
青森(Aomori)              3            3                0
岩手(Iwate)                3            1                2
宮城Miyagi)                6            3                3
秋田(Akita)                 3            2                1
山形(Yamagata)          3            3                0
福島(Fukushima)         5            2                3
茨城(Ibaraki)              7            4                3
栃木(Tochigi)              5            4                 1
群馬(Gunma)              5            5                0
埼玉(Saitama)          15            8                 7
千葉(Chiba)              13            8                5
神奈川(Kanagawa)    18           11                7
山梨(Yamanashi)        2             1                1
東京(Tokyo)             25           13               12
新潟(Niigata)             6             2                4
富山(Toyama)            3             3                0
石川(Ishikawa)          3             2                1
福井(Fukui)               2             2                0
長野(Nagano)            5             2                3
岐阜(Gifu)                 5             4                1
静岡(Shizuoka)          8             6                2
愛知(Aichi)              15             4               11
三重(Mie)                  4             2                2
滋賀(Shiga)               4             3                1
京都(Kyoto)               6             3                3
大阪(Osaka)            19             9                2                8
兵庫(Hyōgo)            12           12                0
奈良(Nara)                3             2                1
和歌山(Wakayama)    3             2                1
鳥取(Tottori)             2             2                0
島根(Shimane)          2             2                0
岡山(Okayama)         5             5                0
広島(Hiroshima)        7             6                1
山口(Yamaguchi)       4             4                0
徳島(Tokushima)       2             2                0
香川(Kagawa)           3             1                2
愛媛(Ehime)             4              3               1
高知(Kōchi)              2              1               1
福岡(Fukuoka)        11              9               2
佐賀(Saga)               2              0               2
長崎(Nagasaki)         4              3               1
熊本(Kumamoto)      4              4                0
大分(Ōita)                3              2               1
宮崎(Miyazaki)          3             3                0
鹿児島(Kagoshima)   4              3               1
沖縄(Okinawa)         4              1               3
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                   289           182             99               8


PR vote share would be something like (diff relative to 2019 PR performance)

LDP   34.37% (-1.00%)
KP     12.39% (-0.66%)
JRP     8.72% (-1.08%)
PNHK  0.96% (-1.01%)
DPP    7.33% (+0.38%)
CDP  21.50% (+5.68%)
RS     3.23% (-1.33%)
SDP   1.68% (-0.41%)
JCP    8.88% (-0.07%)

Higher turnout will help CDP while the LDP PR candidate personal vote not be there to help LDP.  DPP gains by higher turnout but loses as their PR candidate personal vote will not be able to help.  RS will fall which helps both CDP and JCP and blunts the fall of JCP due to higher turnout.  I suspect I might be underestimating how much RS will fall without 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) at the top of the ticket.    

Seat wise these vote share would create results something like

                                          LDP   KP  JRP DPP CDP  RS SDP JCP   Total
北海道(Hokkaido)                    3     1                  3                 1         8
東北(Tohoku)                          6     1            1    4                 1       13
北関東(North Kanto)                7     3    1      1    5                 2       19
南関東(South Kanto)                8     3    1      1    6     1          2       22
東京(Tokyo)                            6     2    1      1    4      1         2       17
北陸信越(Hokurikushinetsu)      5     1            1    3                1        11
東海(Tokai)                             8     3    1      3    5                1       21
近畿(Kinki)                             8     4    7      1    5                3       28
中国(Chugoku)                       6     2            1    2                          11
四国(Shikoku)                        4     1                  1                            6
九州(Kyūshū)                         8     3    1      1    4           1     1       20
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                   69   24   12    12   42    2    1    14     176

Which would produce

             District     PR    Total
LDP         174         69     243
KP              8         24       32
JRP             8         12      20
DPP          36          12      48
CDP          52          42      94
RS              0           2        2
SDP            1           1        2
JCP             1         14      15
OPPN          9                     9
---------------------------------------------
Total       289       176     465

LDP at 243 which is just past majority
LDP+KP+JRP = 295 which just misses 2/3 majority.
11 out of the 52 CDP district winners are independent incumbents that caucus with CDP which I assume will run with CDP.  1 out of the 36 are DPP is an independent incumbent that caucus with DPP which I assume will run with DPP.
6 out of 9 OPPN winners are members of DPJ ex-PM 野田佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko) group which clearly would align with DPP versus CDP.  Other 3 OPPN are also more likely to align with DPP versus CDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #604 on: August 04, 2019, 08:55:26 AM »

Since the "on paper" pro-Constitutional revision bloc is only a few seats away from 2/3 majority any shift of even one seats could make a difference. The next upcoming variable is the 埼玉(Saitama) governor race of 8/25 where the incumbent with a DPJ background choose to not run for re-election.

The DP winner and now of the DPP of the 2016 埼玉(Saitama) Upper House district election 大野元裕 (Ōno Motohiro) has resigned from DPP to run asa the joint opposition candidate of CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP.  A pro LDP-KP independent who has a professional baseball background will of course run.   Also in the fray is 行田邦子(Kōda Kuniko) who has a DPJ background but then went over to YP and then HP.  She was elected in the 埼玉(Saitama) district race in 2007 as DPJ and in 2013 as YP.  She choose not to run for re-election in 2019 given her dim chances and instead choose to run for the governor race.  She will of course target the Third Pole vote.  PNHK will also be in the fray as well as a few minor candidates one of who seems to have a Left wing background.

If 大野元裕(Ōno Motohiro) were to win which is a real possibility given JCP support then there will have to be a by-election for 埼玉(Saitama) Upper House district race.  Even with if the Center-Left Opposition can form an alliance with JCP, unless a Third Pole candidate emerges the LDP is more likely than the Center-Left Opposition to win the low turnout by-election.  If that were to take place then Abe is one more seat closer to getting a theoretical 2/3 majority. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #605 on: August 05, 2019, 06:09:46 AM »

PNHK leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) speaks at Foreign Press club

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNcA0FaCnZI&t=0s

Things that came out is

a) While 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) has offered to support Abe's Constitutional Revision in return for Abe backing his plan to limit payment of NHK license fees only to those that watch NHK he is open to making similar deals with the Center-Left Opposition if they are in a position to give him what he wants

b) 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) is very much focused on direct democracy on other issues and PNHK does not take a stand on issues outside of the NHK issue.

c) Now that PNHK is in the Upper House it seems that within NHK is now obligated to cover PNHK. There seems to be a lot of NHK infighting as no one wants to be assigned to cover PNHK.

Overall it seems NHK fees amount to $200-$400 a year per household so it is non-trivial amount especially for those that do not watch NHK.
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jaichind
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« Reply #606 on: August 11, 2019, 08:30:54 AM »
« Edited: August 11, 2019, 04:24:36 PM by jaichind »

2019 LDP PR vote



2019 KP PR vote
The KP vote lean is more and more toward the rural South with declining base in Tokyo and suburbs



2019 CDP PR vote
CDP PR vote seems inversely correlated with KP vote with the exception of the Tokyo suburbs.



2019 DPP PR vote
DPP support tend to be clustered around certain rural pocks and fairly weak in urban centers.



2019 JRP PR vote
Obviously strong in Osaka region.  Impact of 鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) in certain parts of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) in certain parts of  富山(Toyama) are clear.



2019 JCP PR vote



2019 RS PR vote
As expected concentration in Tokyo urban and suburban areas.



2019 SDP PR vote
SDP support is based in the Deep South of 九州(Kyushu) and especially 大分(Ōita) and 沖縄(Okinawa)
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jaichind
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« Reply #607 on: August 11, 2019, 08:38:15 AM »
« Edited: August 11, 2019, 08:44:29 AM by jaichind »

2017 to 2019 CDP swing.  The CDP surge in 青森(Aomori) seems to be about a good part of the 2017 HP vote shifting over to CDP where as in other parts of the Northeast more of the 2017 HP vote went to LDP.   I suspect in this case LDP did not run a strong 青森(Aomori) based candidate on its PR list and failed to pull in some of the personal vote that it got in other Northern prefectures.  In the rest of Japan it is about CDP giving back some of its 2017 surge to JCP as well as RS taking some Center-Left votes away.

Low turnout clearly hurt CDP
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urutzizu
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« Reply #608 on: August 11, 2019, 09:17:29 AM »

Great Maps. Is there a reason for the JCP strength around Kyoto and Kochi?
I seem to remember that these were the also the only two district seats that JCP won back in 1996.
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jaichind
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« Reply #609 on: August 11, 2019, 03:02:44 PM »

Great Maps. Is there a reason for the JCP strength around Kyoto and Kochi?
I seem to remember that these were the also the only two district seats that JCP won back in 1996.

In both prefectures the local unions lean JCP whereas in the rest of Japan unions tend to lean Rengo which has backed DPJ in the past and now DPP.  In addition Kyoto has a large university population which also lean JCP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #610 on: August 14, 2019, 11:36:34 AM »
« Edited: August 15, 2019, 04:30:17 AM by jaichind »

Japanese blogger miraisyakai focused on the CDP PR vote and the extent that the fall of the CDP PR vote from 2017 are due to losses to RS.

2019 CDP+RS vs 2017 CDP PR vote


He focused first on the fairly urban 関東(Kantō) region which are 茨城(Ibaraki), 栃木(Tochigi),  群馬(Gunma), 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 山梨(Yamanashi), and 東京(Tokyo)

He mapped the 2017 CDP PR vote in  関東(Kantō)


And noted that CDP+RS 2019 vote is similar to the 2017 CDP vote in the 関東(Kantō) region


To the 2019 CDP+RS PR vote in 関東(Kantō)


He did a comparison regression between 2017 CDP vote vs 2019 CDP+RS vote (Left) and 2017 CDP vote vs 2019 CDP (Right) to show that higher correlation for the 2017 CDP vote vs 2019 CDP+RS vote implies a good part of the CDP decline is due to RS


Just focusing on the 関東(Kantō) region and doing the same regression comparison plot show an even stronger correlation here which indicates the 2017 CDP PR loss is greater in the  関東(Kantō) region


He pointed out that RS looks a lot like the short lived 1980s サラリーマン(Salary-man Party) by looking at the サラリーマン(Salary-man Party) PR vote in the 1983 Upper House elections where it is very concentrated in urban araes.


Similar story of the 1980s short lived 税金党(Anti-tax Party) which is more Center-Right but also strong in urban areas and mostly a 関東(Kantō) party.   税金党(Anti-tax Party) PR vote in 1986 Upper House elections


He also points out that NHK exit polls on RS support shows that it is fairly youth heavy


So the main message here is that a good part of the CDP PR decline from 2017 is due to 2017 CDP youth vote shift in the fairly urbanized  関東(Kantō) region.

This is not a large surprise.  The youth tends to vote for the most recent fad party. For those that are on the Center-Left, the fad party in 2017 was clearly CDP which also took votes from JCP.  In fact part of the decline of CDP in 2019 is also some of the JCP votes it got in 2017 has flowed back to JCP.  In 2019 that Center-Left new fad party is clearly RS.  In the next Lower House election a lot of this vote will flow back to CDP.  

This is a similar story with with fad parties on the Center-Right.  In 2010 the Center-Right fad party was clearly YP and in 2012 that became JRP.  Over time these parties lost support as their fad status diminished.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #611 on: August 16, 2019, 04:49:37 AM »

Sankei did an analysis of the 2019 Upper House election and if the same votes were replicated in a Lower House election it would be (when compared to 2017 Lower House elections) assuming the Center-Left Oppose minus RS formed an alliance with JCP in the district races

LDP+KP           298 (-15)
Grand Alliance  141 (-12)
JRP                   33 (+22)
RS                     5  (+5)



This projection overestimates LDP-KP and also overestimates the net losses for Grand Alliance.  Given the personal vote that boasted the LDP PR vote in the Upper House election one would expect some reversion to the mean.   Also I suspect RS will join as an unofficial member of the Grand Alliance.  Lastly a bunch of opposition MPs elected in 2017 have since defected to LDP so the net change in 2017 underestimates the decline of LDP-KP.  This projection has a JRP surge that sweeps Osaka but the Upper House election was held just after a JRP sweep of the Osaka governor and mayoral races.   As time passes some of the JRP support will flow back to LDP-KP and to some extend the Grand Alliance. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #612 on: August 25, 2019, 05:57:03 AM »

埼玉(Saitama) governor election today.  It is an open seat with the 4 term pro-opposition governor retiring.    It is pretty much a 2 way race between a LDP-KP backed candidate vs a grand coalition opposition backed candidate supported by DPP-CDP-SDP-JCP.  The OPPN candidate was the DP and then DPP Upper House MP from 埼玉(Saitama) elected in 2016.  A HP candidate with a DPJ and YP background who was elected in 2013 Upper House for 埼玉(Saitama) as a YP and declined to run for re-election in 2019 Upper House election to run for governor dropped out due to health reasons and endorsed the LDP-KP candidate.

Overall most pre-election polls has it neck-to-neck between LDP-KP and OPPN although perhaps LDP-KP ahead by a whisker.    PNHK and two minor candidates are in the fray.   It will be interesting to see if PNHK can get a respectable vote share.  Something above 5% would be a good result for PNHK.

If OPPN wins then there will need to be a by-election for the 埼玉(Saitama) Upper House seat that he will vacate.  If the LDP were to win that by-election then Abe would have closed his 2/3 pro-constitutional revision seat gap to 2 seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #613 on: August 25, 2019, 06:05:51 AM »

Exit polls seems to have OPPN ahead of LDP-KP around 50-45
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jaichind
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« Reply #614 on: August 25, 2019, 06:07:41 AM »

Exit poll with party support breakdown

OPPN candidate winning over some LDP supporters (Red) seems critical to his lead
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jaichind
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« Reply #615 on: August 25, 2019, 06:17:11 AM »

Exit poll based on 2019 Upper House district vote

Those that voted LDP and KP candidates in the 2019 Upper House elections had significant defection to OPPN.  Those that voted JRP candidate  in the 2019 Upper House elections seems to have split evenly between LDP-KP and OPPN.  Despite OPPN candidate having a DPP background those that voted for the DPP candidate in the 2019 Upper House elections elections did not vote as a high of a rate for OPPN than those that voted CDP and JCP candidates in the 2019 Upper House elections. 

This sort of breakdown seems to indicate this election is more ideological in nature than normal.  The LDP-KP candidate having been a professional baseball player and having less political roots than the OPPN candidate seems to have played a role in the LDP and KP defections to OPPN.

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jaichind
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« Reply #616 on: August 25, 2019, 06:18:43 AM »

Exit poll by age.  The sizable of the youth vote for "Other" seems to indicate that PNHK support will come from the youth
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jaichind
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« Reply #617 on: August 25, 2019, 06:56:32 AM »

NHK exit poll has a slightly bigger lead for OPPN and a poor performance by PNHK
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jaichind
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« Reply #618 on: August 25, 2019, 08:05:01 AM »

With 31% of vote counted it is

OPPN     49.2%
LDP-KP  46.3%
PNHK      2.0%

Most likely the scale of the OPPN victory will be greater than this since the count so far is fairly rural heavy.
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jaichind
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« Reply #619 on: August 25, 2019, 08:12:00 AM »

With 49% of vote counted it is

OPPN     48.6%
LDP-KP  46.5%
PNHK      2.2%

NHK calls race for OPPN
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jaichind
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« Reply #620 on: August 25, 2019, 08:15:46 AM »

So now there will need to be a by-election for the  埼玉(Saitama) Upper House seat last elected in 2016 for the DPP MP that is now just became the new governor of  埼玉(Saitama).   Assuming that CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP can form an alliance and get tacit RS support that by-election will be a tossup between LDP and the Grand Alliance and will very much depend on if JRP runs and relative candidate quality. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #621 on: August 25, 2019, 08:26:43 AM »

With 61% of vote counted it is

OPPN     47.8%
LDP-KP  46.0%
PNHK      2.8%

The outstanding vote is almost all urban which implies that OPPN should be around 50% if not higher in the end.
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jaichind
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« Reply #622 on: August 25, 2019, 08:32:08 AM »

With 80% of vote counted it is

OPPN     48.6%
LDP-KP  44.8%
PNHK      3.0%

OPPN gains as more urban votes come in
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jaichind
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« Reply #623 on: August 25, 2019, 09:00:44 AM »

With 95% of vote counted it is

OPPN     48.1%
LDP-KP  44.8%
PNHK      3.3%

Looks like the urban votes that are coming in tend to help PNHK and other minor candidates and less so for OPPN
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jaichind
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« Reply #624 on: August 25, 2019, 10:09:07 AM »

With pretty much all votes counted it is

OPPN     47.9%
LDP-KP  44.9%
PNHK      3.3%
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