2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 47796 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #575 on: July 26, 2019, 05:53:25 AM »

Updated chart on historical PR vote by bloc

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17             11.23
2001       55.86              11.63             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.45                0.23             46.52              7.80
2005       51.43                4.81             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.45             45.80              7.48
2009       38.18                8.12             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.37             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.22             19.20              9.68
2014       46.82              18.89             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       45.79                7.16             38.93              7.90
2019       48.43              12.18             29.90              8.95

LDP+ and Third Pole recovered from 2017 dip.  In 2017 what I count as Center-Left HP is really 2/3 Center-Left and 1/3 Third Pole.  The Third Pole vote that HP pulled in now flows back to Third Pole while LDP+ also recovers.  LDP always does better on the Upper House PR vote relative to Lower House elections due to lower turnout in Upper House elections but also that Upper House PR vote you can vote for a person and LDP has much more political talent that have their own personal vote than another other party.  KP and JCP merely benefit from lower turnout given their voter's high turnout rate no matter what.


Vote share as a % of VAP and LDP KP also broken out chart is

Year    Turnout    LDP         KP      Center     Third       JCP
                                                  Left         Pole
2001   54.03%  20.84%   8.08%  13.29%   6.29%   4.27%
2003   57.77%  20.19%   8.54%  24.56%                4.48%
2004   54.52%  16.37%   8.40%  25.37%   0.13%   4.25%
2005   65.85%  25.14%   8.73%  24.04%   3.17%   4.78%
2007   56.81%  15.95%   7.49%  26.02%   3.10%   4.25%
2009   67.70%  18.10%   7.75%  31.60%   5.49%   4.76%
2010   56.19%  13.53%   7.34%  20.29%  11.60%  3.43%
2012   57.89%  15.99%   6.85%  13.92%  17.58%  3.55%
2013   51.11%  17.72%   7.27%    9.81%  11.35%  4.95%
2014   51.30%  16.99%   7.04%  11.66%   9.69%   5.83%
2016   52.74%  18.94%   7.13%  13.96%   6.44%   5.66%
2017   52.56%  17.49%   6.58%  20.46%   3.76%   4.15%
2019   47.29%  16.73%   6.17%  14.14%   5.76%   4.23%

Note turnout here is valid non-null PR vote as a % of VAP.

With very low turnout LDP vote share as a % of VAP falls to the lowest level since 2012.  KP vote share as % of VAP continues its secular decline.  The Center-Left vote as a % of VAP dropped from its 2017 surge but still better than 2016.  Both Third Pole and JCP recovered from 2017 but still below 2016 for vote share as a % of VAP.

Given the ultra-low turnout this should have been KP's year to shine.  Yet the result was solid but not great and revealed that even the KP turnout machine have limits and that is core voter base is in decline.  In 10-15 years the LDP's KP alliance might not be that election winning strategy it used to be if these trends continue.
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jaichind
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« Reply #576 on: July 26, 2019, 03:27:33 PM »

There were 2 PR candidates which were elected on the YP PR slate in 2010 but were defeated for re-election in 2016 which due to their election experience being illustrative on strategies of getting elected on the PR slate I was tracking this election.  Both got elected.  Looking at the election history of these two MPs elected on the PR slate helps to explain some political strategies around being elected on the PR slate.  

Just to get details out of the way, the PR slate is based on an party open list process where a voter can vote for a party OR a PR list candidate which gets accrued to the party to calculate the PR seats allocated to said party.  The candidates on the list that are elected are based on the number of votes each member on the list gets.  

So the correct strategy of a PR list candidate is to
a) Make sure there is a large enough personal vote so people vote for your name
b) Be on a party list that can actually win enough votes to have any PR seats elected to allocate  
c) Make sure other PR candidates on the party list you are on have a smaller personal vote than you do.

From a political party's point of view you want to get candidates on your list that have a large personal vote to augment your own party loyalists that will vote for the party itself so you expand the number of votes accrued to your party.  

The first candidate go over the election history of is

山田太郎(Tarō Yamada).  


He has a business background but got into politics given his libertarian positions and ran as a PR candidate for YP in 2010.   He got 30.6K votes which placed him 10th.  But YP won enough votes for 7 seat in 2010 so he was not elected.  In 2012 several YP MPs elected on the 2010 PR slate choose to resign to run in the 2012 Lower House elections on the YP or JRP ticket.  So as a result 山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) which was next in line was put into the Upper House in late 2012.

YP dissolved in 2014 so 山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) joined YP successor AEJ which mostly dissolved before the 2016 Upper House elections.  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) in the meantime re-invited himself politically and became an advocate of Otaku or Japanese male youth which are fans of Anime and manga.  He fought against laws to regulate hentai due to linkages to child pornography.  He became a hero of what is called the "geek vote" of young males that are really into Hentai.  With this base of support he sought to run on the ORA PR list in 2016.  Other ORA PR candidates pushed backed on accepting  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) into the ORA PR list seeing him as unfairly denying them their rightful place as the winners on the ORA list.  ORA high command backed down and did not add  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) on the ORA PR list.  

山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) in 2016 ran on Third Pole and LDP Libertarian splinter NPR instead.   He ended up winning a surprising 291K votes.  But NRP even with the 291K votes won around 580K votes on the PR list which is only 1.04% of the PR vote and not enough for it to win a seat which would have gone to  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada).  So while  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) has as large personal vote he did not run for a party that had enough support for him to win a seat.  ORA of course made a mistake here.    山田太郎(Tarō Yamada)'s 291K was by itself 0.52% of the national PR vote which had he ran for ORA would have for sure given ORA an extra PR seat to allocate and not hurt other ORA PR candidates to win a seat due to them.

山田太郎(Tarō Yamada)'s large PR vote in 2016 caught LDP's eye.   Under the rule "If you win you are LDP", LDP courted  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) who quickly jump on board and joined LDP to run for LDP in 2019.  The LDP figures if  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) and bring his 291K with him then all that vote would count toward LDP's vote share.    As it is  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) win a massive 540K votes which by itself was 1.08% of the entire PR vote and put him to be second on the LDP PR list and is duly elected.   山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) running for LDP was a win-win.  He ran for a party which had prospect of winning a bunch of seats and given his vote base he should be able to come in the top 19 (the 19th LDP PR winner won 132K votes) giving him a win unlike 2016  where 291K did not yield him a seat.  For LDP they get an extra 0.5%-1.0% vote share to LDP that could have gone to another party had  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) ran for another party.

The second candidate is also interesting.  He is

柴田巧(Takumi Shibata).  


He was a LDP local politician in 富山(Toyama) and was elected to several terms in the prefecture assembly and has deep roots in the prefecture.    In 2009 Lower House election he sought the LDP nomination to run in the LDP stronghold of 富山(Toyama) 3rd district which became an open seat.  He was denied and instead ran as a LDP rebel.  The result was

LDP          45.9%
IND(DPJ)  36.0%
Takumi     17.3% (around 51K votes)

After his defeat 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) joined the rising YP and ran as a YP PR candidate in the 2010 Upper House elections.    He won around 88K overall of which 62K was from  富山(Toyama) which actually placed him first in the YP list since the other YP PR candidate did not really have a large personal vote.  To show the size of 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata)'s personal vote in 富山(Toyama), YP won 20.3% of the PR vote in 富山(Toyama) in 2010.  柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) by himself won 11.0% of the PR vote for 富山(Toyama) which means he pretty much carried half the YP PR vote in  富山(Toyama).  In 2012 Lower House elections without 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata)'s name YP only won 6.7% of the PR vote in 富山(Toyama).  

After YP split in 2014 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) went with YP splinter UP and which merged into JIP. In early 2016 after ORA split from JIP, JIP merged with DPJ to form DP.  So for the 2016 Upper House elections 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) ran on the DP PR list.  柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) actually won 73K votes (50K votes of it from 富山(Toyama) which means if anything his personal vote in 富山(Toyama) grew from 2010)  But 73K placed him 17th on the DP list as the DP PR list had many PR candidates with large personal vote.   As it is DP only won enough votes for 11 seats so 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) was not elected.   柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) did make a huge impact on 富山(Toyama).  DP won 24.2% of the PR vote in 富山(Toyama) of which 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) 's personal vote was 10.5% of it.  Back in 2014 DPJ won 10.3% of the  富山(Toyama) PR vote and an undivided JIP (ORA had not split out yet) won 16.9% of the vote.  It is clear DP getting 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) to run for it gained it a bunch of PR votes in 富山(Toyama) even though 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) failed to win.

柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) stayed in DP and went to join HP in 2017 when DP was de facto dissolved.   He again ran in 富山(Toyama) 3rd district as the HP candidate against his old LDP rival of 2009.  He was defeated

LDP   63.9%
HP    28.2% (around 62K)
JCP    8.0%

For 2019 Upper House elections 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) was recruited by JRP given his personal vote in  富山(Toyama) to run for JRP PR slate.  He won around 54K votes which placed him 4th place on the JRP list.  This is because other than NPD founder and leader 鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) JRP's PR list did not have that many candidates that has a large personal vote.  As a result 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata)  was elected even though his 54K votes was less than the 73K votes he won in 2016 on the DP PR list.  As it is he won only 33K votes in 富山(Toyama) which is less than 2010 and 2016 but still carried JRP in 富山(Toyama).   As it is JRP won 14.5% of the PR vote in 富山(Toyama) of which 8.3% of it was won by 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata).  In 2017 Lower House election without 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) name on the JRP list JRP won 7.0% of the PR vote.  So it is clear that 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) had carried JRP in 富山(Toyama) in 2019.

The main lessons of these two candidates is that a large personal vote, even if concentrated in a prefecture, is not enough to win FPTP seats but can help you win on the PR slate as long as you join the right party list that can win seats but do not have too many heavy personal vote candidates on the same party list to take slots from you.


I wrote about 柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) back in 2016
Looking through the PR vote section by prefecture also resolved another mysterious result which I could not explain before.  Telling the tale of my discovery also helps tell a bigger story of why LDP win.

The initial mystery was around the result in the 1- district and old LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama).  What took place was was turnout surged from 2013 by 5.4% when the rest of Japan turnout went up by around 2%.  Then on the PR section the DP PR vote surged to 24.22% from 10.3% in 2014 and 9.41% in 2013. As a result LDP+KP PR vote was at 54% which was a drop of 2.3% from 2014 when LDP+KP PR went up by 2.6% in the PR section since 2014 across Japan.  The in the district section for Toyama LDP completely overperformed its PR vote over the united opposition candidate.  Based on my regression model, which uses PR vote section and looks at incumbency effects, the LDP got over 8.4% vote share over what my model would imply.  Part of it can be explained by a popular LDP incumbant and weak opposition independent candidate but then would would there be a surge of DP PR vote with high turnout only for the same voters to then just vote LDP on the district vote.

This mystery got unraveled when I looked at the PR section by candidate and prefecture.  It turned out that an incumbant ex-YP MP 柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) who won in 2010 on the YP PR slate but then joined DP won a large amount of the PR vote in his home prefecture of Toyama.  Out of the 116.5K PR votes cast for DP in Toyama, 柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) himself won as a vote for him 50.3K.  So nearly half of the DP PR vote in Toyama was cast for Shibata.  Just for comparison, in other prefectures the DP PR vote is usually around 20% for candidate names (let alone just one candidate)  and 80% for the party itself.  Shibata lost reelection because even though he won 50.3K in Toyama he won only 73K over all of Japan which placed him 17th on the DP PR list and DP only won enough votes to win 11 seats.

柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi)


Looking at  柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) himself.  He was with the LDP in the Toyama prefecture assembly but in 2009 ran as a LDP rebel in the Lower House elections and lost but winning 50K votes in 1 of the 3  Toyama Lower House districts.  Then he joined YP and ran on the PR list for YP in 2010.  In 2010  Shibata won 87.8K vote of which most of it must have come from  Toyama which place him first in the YP PR list of which 4 was elected based on a 8.9% vote share and over 4.7 million votes.  2010 YP PR list did not have that many well known candidates and 90% of the PR vote for the YP party itself so 87.8K was enough to place him first.  2016 DP PR list had a lot more well known candidates so a slight decrease in total number of votes for Shibata drove him to 17th place. So Shibata went from a big fish in a small pond to a small fish in a big pond and lost re-election.    It seems most of Shibata's votes in Toyama are his personal vote and would otherwise vote LDP.  Just to give an idea the impact Shibata has on the PR vote, in 2010 when Shibata ran on the YP PR slate, YP won 20.34% of the Toyama PR vote.  In 2012 and 2014 when YP did not have Shibata  as a personal candidate on the PR list (of course 2012 was a Lower House election where one cannot for a PR candidate anyway) YP won 6.67% and 4.96% in the PR section of Toyama.

So now the mystery is solved.  The DP surge in Toyama 2016 was based on the fact that  柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) by himself won over 10% of the PR vote which pushed to the DP PR vote share to above 24% when it recently had been in the single digits.  But most of this vote are the personal vote of  Shibata and when left to vote on the district section mostly voted LDP.  It seems given the size of Shibata's personal vote it is likely he will run in the next Lower House elections so he can add his personal vote with the center-left and possibly JCP and make his race potentially competitive.  

The story of 柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) is very instructive on why LDP wins.  For each 柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) who is a LDP rebel, many other local politicians with personal votes stay in LDP.  The dynamic is the following:

LDP is in charge of central government -> Local governments cannot issue debt -> Center Government distributes subsidies to local government via the MPs and MLAs of said prefecture -> local politicians join LDP so bring home the bacon -> local politician personal votes transferred to LDP for national elections -> LDP in charge of central government.  

At least for now Shibata being part of DP has not lead to his personal base going over to DP as seen by the district vote but over time that could change.  
  


I also wrote about 山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) in 2016 as well
Another set of data I was able to dig out of the PR vote distribution by candidate was able to explain the unexpectedly large PR vote share by NPR (1.04%) as well as a tale of how ORA threw away a PR seat.  

NPR is pretty much a defunct Right Libertarian LDP splinter party.  Without knowing too much at the ground I figured they were only good for 0.5%. but they actually managed 1.04% which was still not enough to win a PR seat but still higher than I expected.  I looked into why.  It turns out an ex-YP incumbent MP 山田太郎 (Yamada Taro) won single handedly over 290K votes which itself was 0.52% of total PR vote share making him the 13th largest vote getter of all the PR candidates running.  So NPR got around 0.5% of the PR vote but when added  by Yamada's vote put NPR past 1% vote share.  Of course since NPR failed to win a seat on PR Yamada was not elected.

山田太郎 (Yamada Taro)


山田太郎 (Yamada Taro) was elected as part of the class of 2010 YP  slate.  When YP became defunct at the end of 2014 he joined AEJ.  While there he took on the cause of freedom of speech when it came to laws that try to regulate Hentai comics books on the premise of stopping child pornargraphy. This appears to have won him the support of a Hentai reading male youth voting bloc the media call the Geek Vote.  In early 2016 Yamada quite AEJ when it was clear AEJ will not even try to contest in 2016 and joined ORA who nominated him to be their candidate for 埼玉(Saitama). Yamada quit ORA claiming that he joined the the premise he would be put in the ORA PR list a fact ORA disputed.  From Yamada's point of view running in Saitama would lead to sure defeat when his support is evenly spread across Japan which is a perfect match for a PR candidate.  ORA's concern is that having Yamada on its PR list would only cannibalize the ORA PR vote and offend other ORA PR list candidate who would see Yamada potentially large vote as squeezing them out of their sure seat.   So Yamada ran on NPR PR list winning a large number of votes from the "Geek voting bloc" but failing re-election.  ORA made a big mistake as Yamada's ability to win over 0.5% of the national PR vote shows that he as independent draw and had he run on the ORA PR would have easily added a seat, won by Yamada, to the ORA seat count at the expense of LDP.  


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jaichind
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« Reply #577 on: July 27, 2019, 06:51:06 AM »

If you break up the Japanese prefectures into Urban, Suburban and Rural and then look at the LDP PR vote "lean" you get a sense where the lower turnout of Upper House elections are coming at the expense of

2001 4.91%  Upper
2003 3.95%  Lower
2004 5.17%  Upper
2005 0.15%  Lower (Koizumi Urban wave)
2007 4.15%  Upper
2009 3.21%  Lower
2010 4.40%  Upper
2012 3.56%  Lower
2013 5.14%  Upper
2014 2.51%  Lower
2016 4.94%  Upper
2017 3.02%  Lower
2019 5.70%  Upper

The 2019 LDP Rural lean is at a record 5.70%. 

A similar chart for LDP PR Urban lean has

2001 -4.22%  Upper
2003 -3.23%  Lower
2004 -3.95%  Upper
2005  1.10%  Lower (Koizumi Urban wave)
2007 -3.04%  Upper
2009 -2.62%  Lower
2010 -3.78%  Upper
2012 -3.22%  Lower
2013 -4.08%  Upper
2014 -2.42%  Lower
2016 -4.58%  Upper
2017 -2.34%  Lower
2019 -5.40%  Upper

Tells a similar story in reverse.  The LDP 2019 urban lean is at a record low of -5.40%

The LDP rural lean is always greater in Upper House years.  That is partly because of the personal vote is greater in rural areas and the Upper House PR vote allows for a personal vote.  But it also implies that lower turnout in Upper House elections is about rural Opposition voters not turning out as the LDP core vote are in rural areas.  Likewise lower turnout in Upper House elections is about urban LDP voters not turning out as JCP Third Pole (YP and now JRP) and now CDP core vote are in urban areas who will loyally turn out.

The KP PR urban lean over the years is interesting

2001 1.31%
2003 0.74%
2004 1.05%
2005 0.28%
2007 0.97%
2009 0.08%
2010 0.59%
2012 -0.47%
2013 -0.39%
2014 -0.36%
2016 -0.26%
2017 -0.28%
2019 -0.15%

KP historically have been an urban party these trends clearly tell that the secular decline of the KP vote as a % of VAP has been more about is urban base slowing drifting away with generational change while its rural and suburban vote has been declining with a smaller velocity.
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jaichind
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« Reply #578 on: July 27, 2019, 06:56:59 AM »

Asahi poll on what should be PM priorities

Securing Pension system  38%
Education                        23%
Economy                         17%
Foreign policy                  14%
Constitution Revision         3%


I think Abe will have to go slow on his attempts to forge deals with the Opposition for Constitution Revision since he does not have the numbers and the polls are not with him. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #579 on: July 27, 2019, 11:46:21 AM »
« Edited: July 27, 2019, 04:17:51 PM by jaichind »

For the multi-member districts on the whole the protest parties (PNHK and HRP) mostly got what their PR vote was which make them about shifts and tactical voting between the different major parties

北海道(Hokkaido) (3- member)

LDP     34.36%  elected (ex-Governor)
CDP     21.73%  elected
LDP     18.85%  elected
JCP     11.03%
DPP      9.43%
PNHK    2.63%
EP        0.99%
HRP      0.57%
LAB      0.42%

PR breakdown
LDP     32.30%
KP       11.70%
JRP       7.78% (3.96% of which is for 鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo))
Protest  2.58% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      6.65%
CDP    20.85%
Left      5.74% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP    11.58%
EP        0.81%

District Right/Left balance is 56.41%/42.61% while the PR Right/Left balance is 54.36%/44.83%

LDP running a popular ex-Governor clearly paid of she was able to eat into the Center-Left Opposition votes.  Inability for CDP DPP and JCP to coordinate their voting clearly meant that in the end it was overkill by LDP.

Back in 2017 JRP won 2.76% of the PR vote while NPD won 8.37% of the PR vote.  It seems overall  鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) was only able to bring half of the NPD PR vote with him.  I would have expected that JRP does better here that what they ended up with.
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jaichind
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« Reply #580 on: July 27, 2019, 11:56:07 AM »
« Edited: July 27, 2019, 04:07:07 PM by jaichind »

茨城(Ibaraki) (2- member)

LDP     47.92%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     22.45%  elected
JCP     12.20%
JRP     11.86%
PNHK    5.57%
 
PR breakdown
LDP     39.33%
KP       15.12%
JRP       6.73%
Protest  2.32% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      7.15%
CDP    15.20%
Left      5.95% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      7.73%
EP        0.47%

District Right/Left balance is 65.35%/34.65% while the PR Right/Left balance is 63.50%/36.03%

There seems to be clear signs of cross voting by DPP PR voters for JRP  as well as tactical voting by LDP PR voters for JRP.  Some LDP disgruntled voters here clearly went over to PNHK.  In retrospect perhaps 茨城(Ibaraki) should have been the place the LDP tried to win 2 out of 2 seats instead of 広島(Hiroshima) given how CDP JRP and JCP splintered the non-LDP field.
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« Reply #581 on: July 27, 2019, 12:09:22 PM »

埼玉(Saitama) (4- member)

LDP     28.25%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     19.26%  elected
KP       19.12%  elected (incumbent)
JCP     12.90%  elected
DPP      8.78%
JRP       7.33%
PNHK    2.89%
EP        0.76%
HRP      0.70%

PR breakdown
LDP     31.39%
KP       14.50%
JRP       7.32%
Protest  2.83% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      5.21%
CDP    20.79%
Left       6.72% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP     10.55%
EP        0.68%

District Right/Left balance is 58.30%/40.95% while the PR Right/Left balance is 56.03%/43.28%

KP tends to not just attract LDP PR tactical votes but sometimes DPP/CDP PR tactical votes as well which is what seems to have taken place here.  Inability between anti-JCP JRP and DPP supporters to coordinate means that JCP gets a free pass and wins with ease.
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« Reply #582 on: July 27, 2019, 12:15:22 PM »

千葉(Chiba) (3- member)

LDP     30.54%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     28.89%  elected (incumbent)
LDP     19.06%  elected (incumbent)
JCP     15.72%
PNHK    3.93%
EP        1.86%

PR breakdown
LDP     36.36%
KP       14.10%
JRP       6.19%
Protest  2.30% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      4.23%
CDP    20.01%
Left      6.71% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      9.38%
EP        0.71%

District Right/Left balance is 53.53%/44.61% while the PR Right/Left balance is 58.95%/40.34%

Clearly a good part of the KP PR vote sent over to CDP instead of voting for one of the LDP candidates.  JRP PR voters also mostly like split between LDP and CDP candidates.
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« Reply #583 on: July 27, 2019, 12:23:14 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2019, 03:10:29 PM by jaichind »

神奈川(Kanagawa) (4- member)

LDP     25.17%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     20.38%  elected (incumbent)
KP       16.89%  elected (incumbent)
JRP     15.81%  elected (incumbent) (ex-Governor)
JCP     11.60%  
DPP      3.48%
PNHK    2.17%
SDP      1.69%
Right    0.61%
HRP      0.60%
EP        0.59%
Olive    0.47%
IND      0.31%
LAB      0.23%

PR breakdown
LDP     34.86%
KP       11.33%
JRP       8.95%
Protest  2.40% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      5.27%
CDP    18.90%
Left      8.00% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP       9.65%
EP        0.64%

District Right/Left balance is 61.24%/37.86% while the PR Right/Left balance is 57.54%/41.82%

The JRP incumbent is an ex-governor and used to be part of the DPJ which mean he is able to eat into some of the Center-Left PR vote.  Effective tactical voting by LDP PR voters for JRP as well as some cross voting by CDP/DPP PR voters for KP means that JCP is shut out of winning here just like 2016.
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« Reply #584 on: July 27, 2019, 12:36:10 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2019, 08:16:05 PM by jaichind »

東京(Tokyo) (6- member)

LDP     19.88%  elected (incumbent)
KP       14.18%  elected (incumbent) (leader of KP)
JCP      12.28%  elected (incumbent)  
CDP     11.97%  elected
JRP       9.16%  elected
LDP      9.13%   elected (incumbent)
CDP      8.63%
RS        3.73%
DPP      3.25%
PNHK    2.25%
Right    1.59%
SDP      1.50%
HRP      0.59%
EP        0.47%
EP        0.41%
Olive    0.32%
INDs    0.67%

PR breakdown
LDP     32.59%
KP       11.54%
JRP       8.33%
Protest  2.64% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      4.74%
CDP    17.70%
Left     10.25% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP     11.30%
EP        0.93%

District Right/Left balance is 56.78%/41.67% while the PR Right/Left balance is 55.09%/43.98%

Inability to tactically vote relative to the Center-Right bloc led the Center-Left bloc to lose a CDP seat to JRP.  The LDP PR vote was able to effectively shift vote to JRP while KP ate into some of the CDP/DPP PR votes.
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« Reply #585 on: July 27, 2019, 12:41:48 PM »

静岡(Shizuoka) (2- member)

LDP     38.55%  elected (incumbent)
DPP     29.36%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     19.88%
JCP       9.00%
PNHK    3.21%
 
PR breakdown
LDP     38.75%
KP       12.28%
JRP       5.17%
Protest  2.35% (PNHK HRP)
DPP    12.84%
CDP    14.62%
Left      5.52% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      8.05%
EP        0.43%

District Right/Left balance is 41.76%/58.24% while the PR Right/Left balance is 58.54%/41.03%

This race is really a battle between DPP incumbent and CDP.  The CDP candidate is 德川家廣(Tokugawa Iehiro) heir of the Tokugawa Shogunate.  In the end it was not enough for him to win.  This battle lead to all sorts of tactical voting by LDP KP and JRP PR voters between the CDP and DPP candidates.
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« Reply #586 on: July 27, 2019, 12:49:00 PM »

愛知(Aichi) (4- member)

LDP     25.73%  elected (incumbent)
DPP     17.69%  elected (incumbent) (co-leader of DPP)
CDP     16.11%  elected
KP       15.82%  elected
JRP       9.39%
JCP       7.56%   
PNHK    2.98%
SDP      1.53%
EP        0.88%
LAB       0.62%
Olive     0.57%

PR breakdown
LDP     34.05%
KP       13.07%
JRP       8.32%
Protest  2.77% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      9.41%
CDP    17.94%
Left       6.01% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP       7.75%
EP        0.68%

District Right/Left balance is 53.92%/45.20% while the PR Right/Left balance is 58.21%/41.12%

Being the DPP candidate has a strong personal vote the tactical voting flow went from KP PR voter and even LDP PR voter to DPP even as LDP PR voters tactically voted for KP and somewhat for JRP.  The result was not much in doubt except for JRP came ahead of JCP which is another sign of the effectiveness of LDP PR tactical voting.
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« Reply #587 on: July 27, 2019, 12:56:00 PM »

京都(Kyoto) (2- member)

LDP      44.21%  elected (incumbent)
JCP      25.83%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     24.36%
PNHK    3.92%
Olive     1.68%

PR breakdown
LDP     30.86%
KP       12.38%
JRP     11.60%
Protest  2.37% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      4.16%
CDP    14.63%
Left      6.11% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP     17.50%
EP        0.39%

District Right/Left balance is 48.13%/51.87% while the PR Right/Left balance is 57.21%/42.40%

The race was really a battle for second place between JCP and CDP.  CDP should have the edge given likely anti-JCP tactical voting by LDP KP and JRP PR voters.   But the CDP candidate is a LGBT activist which also provoked anti-CDP tactical voting.  In the end the JCP incumbent was able to pull through a victory.
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« Reply #588 on: July 27, 2019, 01:03:42 PM »

大阪(Osaka) (4- member)

JRP     20.88%  elected
JRP     18.89%  elected (incumbent)
KP       16.93%  elected (incumbent)
LDP     16.01%  elected (incumbent)
JCP     10.93%              (incumbent)
CDP     10.19% 
DPP      3.71%
PNHK    1.25%
EP        0.42%
HRP     0.32%
Olive    0.27%
LAB      0.21%

PR breakdown
LDP     20.64%
KP       15.71%
JRP      35.14%
Protest  1.71% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      3.80%
CDP      8.41%
Left      4.54% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      9.64%
EP        0.42%

District Right/Left balance is 74.28%/25.30% while the PR Right/Left balance is 73.20%/26.39%

The only way CDP and JCP can deny the Center-Right bloc a 4 seat sweep is somehow tactically vote for the stronger of the two candidates.  Instead no such thing took place and even DPP PR voters loyally voted for the DPP candidate while CDP/DPP PR voters also seems to have leaked some votes to JRP and KP candidates making this the Center-Right bloc 4 seat sweep an easy affair.
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« Reply #589 on: July 27, 2019, 04:04:09 PM »

兵庫(Hyōgo) (3- member)
 
JRP      26.08%  elected (incumbent)
KP       22.91%  elected 
LDP     21.20%  elected 
CDP    19.78%
JCP       7.56%
PNHK    2.46%

PR breakdown
LDP     29.33%
KP       14.90%
JRP      21.67%
Protest  2.71% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      4.08%
CDP    13.42%
Left      5.29% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      8.25%
EP        0.35%

District Right/Left balance is 72.66%/27.34% while the PR Right/Left balance is 68.61%/31.04%

There were clear LDP PR tactical voting for KP and JRP, in fact in excess which almost cost LDP a seats.  There were also clear voting by DPP and even some CDP PR voters for KP.  At least here it seems there were some JCP PR tactical voting for CDP but it was not enough to take advantage of excessive tactical voting by LDP PR voters.  Close but no cigar.
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« Reply #590 on: July 27, 2019, 09:22:57 PM »

広島(Hiroshima) (2- member)

OPPN   32.31%  elected (incumbent)
LDP     28.99%  elected
LDP     26.47%              (incumbent)
JCP       6.94%
PNHK    2.59%
Left      1.49%
LAB      1.21%
 
PR breakdown
LDP     40.66%
KP       14.50%
JRP       6.83%
Protest  2.33% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      7.23%
CDP    15.35%
Left      6.25% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      6.60%
EP        0.34%

District Right/Left balance is 58.05%/41.95% while the PR Right/Left balance is 64.23%/35.43%

Two different factions of the LDP both wanted to run so LDP high command decided to try to win both seats given the lean of the prefecture.  On paper LDP should be able to win both but it seems KP and JRP PR voters split their vote and many voted for the OPPN incumbent.  There were even tactical voting by JCP PR voters which worked to push the OPPN incumbent to first place and the win breaking the LDP plan to win both seats.
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« Reply #591 on: July 27, 2019, 10:01:46 PM »

福岡(Fukuoka) (3- member)

LDP     33.19%  elected (incumbent)
KP       22.84%  elected
CDP     20.80%  elected (incumbent)
JCP       9.75%
PNHK    2.64%
EP        0.88%
HRP      0.88%
Olive     0.83%

PR breakdown
LDP     36.81%
KP       16.10%
JRP       5.96%
Protest  2.32% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      9.09%
CDP    13.77%
Left      6.30% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      9.06%
EP        0.58%

District Right/Left balance is 59.54%/39.57% while the PR Right/Left balance is 61.20%/38.22%

This race was not competitive since it is clear that LDP KP and CDP will win the 3 seats.   There seems to be the similar LDP PR tactical voting for KP while JRP PR voters seems splits their votes between LDP and CDP.
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« Reply #592 on: July 27, 2019, 10:02:48 PM »

LDP 2016-2019 PR vote swing

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« Reply #593 on: July 28, 2019, 11:23:34 AM »

If the 2019 PR vote were translated to Lower House PR seat allocation method we get

北海道 (Hokkaido)      2017   2019   (8 seats)
LDP                             3        4
KP                               1        1
JRP                             0        0
HP/DPP                       1        0
CDP                            3        2
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             0        1


東北(Tohoku)            2017   2019   (13 seats)
LDP                             5        7
KP                               1        1
JRP                             0        0
HP/DPP                       3        1
CDP                            3        3
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             1        1


北関東 (North Kanto)  2017   2019   (19 seats)
LDP                             7        8
KP                               2        3
JRP                             0        1
HP/DPP                       4        1
CDP                            5        4
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             1        2


南関東 (South Kanto) 2017   2019   (22 seats)
LDP                             8        9
KP                               2        3
JRP                             1        2
HP/DPP                       4        1
CDP                            5        4
RS                                        1 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             2        2


東京 (Tokyo)            2017   2019   (17 seats)
LDP                             6        7
KP                               2        2
JRP                             0        1
HP/DPP                       3        1
CDP                            4        3
RS                                        1 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             2        2


北陸信越
(Hokurikushinetsu)   2017   2019   (11 seats)
LDP                             5        6
KP                               1        1
JRP                             0        0
HP/DPP                       2        1
CDP                            2        2
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             1        1


東海 (Tokai)              2017   2019   (21 seats)
LDP                             7        9
KP                               2        3
JRP                             1        1
HP/DPP                       5        2
CDP                            5        4
RS                                        1 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             1        1


近畿 (Kinki)              2017   2019   (28 seats)
LDP                             9        8
KP                               4        4
JRP                             5        8
HP/DPP                       3        1
CDP                            5        3
RS                                        1 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             2        3


中国(Chugoku)         2017   2019   (11 seats)
LDP                             5        6
KP                               2        2
JRP                             0        0
HP/DPP                       2        1
CDP                            2        2
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             0        0


四国 (Shikoku)         2017   2019   (6 seats)
LDP                             3        4
KP                               1        1
JRP                             0        0
HP/DPP                       1        0
CDP                            1        1
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             0        0


九州 (Kyūshū)            2017   2019   (20 seats)
LDP                             7        9
KP                               3        3
JRP                             1        1
HP/DPP                       4        1
CDP                            3        3
RS                                        1 
SDP                            1        1
JCP                             1        1


Total                        2017   2019   (176 seats)
LDP                           65      77
KP                             21      24
JRP                             8      14
HP/DPP                      32      10
CDP                           38      31
RS                                        5 
SDP                            1        1
JCP                           11      14

LDP tend to over-perform on the PR section in Upper House elections. But clearly in 2019 LDP and JRP regained some ground lost to HP in 2017.  In the meantime JCP and RS gains at the expense of CDP.
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« Reply #594 on: July 28, 2019, 09:35:30 PM »

Looking at the mutli-member district results one can derive some trends.

a) Both KP and JRP have their core vote that will loyally for for their party's candidate if they nominate one in said district.  But if said party does not nominate a candidate while in theory the KP and JRP supporters should vote LDP in reality there are significant defections.
b) Among the LDP voter base there seems to be a a significant bloc of voters that will tactically vote for KP and/or JRP to help to get them over the line versus a Center-Left of JCP candidate.

Some key data points to this fact.  If you compare the LDP-KP-JRP PR vote share with the LDP and LDP+KP+JRP candidate votes in district seats and split them out by the 5 prefectures where LDP ran without either a KP nor JRP candidate and compare them to the 6 prefecture where LDP JRP and KP all nominated candidates you get

                                                                                     Average                  Average
                                                                             LDP+KP+JRP district   LDP+KP+JRP PR
5 prefectures where there is KP nor JRP candidate             48.20%                   56.29%
6 prefectures where LDP KP and JPR ran candidates           60.16%                   58.94%

In the 6 prefectures where where LDP KP and JRP all ran, the LDP vote share is always below the LPD PR vote share. KP and JRP candidates exceeded their parties PR vote share in all cases.
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jaichind
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« Reply #595 on: July 29, 2019, 04:23:31 AM »

No post-election bounce in terms of Abe cabinet approval



CDP support surges post election along with some of the other smaller parties while LDP support falls slightly

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jaichind
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« Reply #596 on: July 29, 2019, 04:25:37 AM »

In a blow and embarrassment to the JRP the 丸山穂高(Maruyama Hodaka) scandal continues to drag on.   Maruyama is the JRP winner of the 大阪(Osaka) 19th district seat 3 elections in a row.  In May he visited one of the four four Russian-held islands off Hokkaido that Japan claims.  It seems he got drunk and started say to the local Japanese leader that "War between Japan and Russia is the only way to resolve the dispute over these island" and "Are there women?" and "I want to go out to grope breasts."

Once these comments made its way to the media there has been an uproar with Maruyama having to resign from JRP and now under pressure to resign his seat.  There will be a Lower House censure of Maruyama which is not legally binding for him to resign his seat.  JRP will not nominate him next election for sure but it seems the damage to the JRP is already done.

丸山穂高(Maruyama Hodaka), who was expelled from JRP and refused to resign despite an unanimous motion of censure calling on him to resign, has joined PNHK.
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jaichind
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« Reply #597 on: July 29, 2019, 12:00:04 PM »

To get a sense of the relative strength and reliance on the personal vote I broke out the PR vote for each party into votes for a candidate and votes for the party itself.

        PR Vote        Personal Vote        Party Vote
LDP   35.37%              9.98%             25.39%
KP     13.05%              4.50%              8.56% 
JRP     9.80%               1.38%              8.42%
PNHK  1.97%               0.29%              1.68%
HRP    0.40%               0.09%              0.32%
DPP    6.95%               2.61%              4.34%
CDP  15.81%               2.44%            13.38%
Olive   0.34%               0.06%              0.27% 
RS      4.55%               2.11%              2.45%
SDP    2.09%               0.57%              1.52%
LAB    0.16%                0.04%             0.12%       
JCP     8.95%               0.86%              8.09%
EP      0.54%               0.07%              0.54%   

First, the KP personal vote is bogus. All of them were voted for by instruction from KP High command.  For KP you can pretty much assume that there is NO personal vote and all the vote are for KP the party.  Beyond that the size of the LDP personal vote is large.  Many represent key interest groups/constituencies or are regional kingpins.   The DPP PR vote is also fairly dependent on the personal vote most of which are Rengo labor union vote.

Examples of powerful LDP key interest groups/constituencies PR candidates are the top two finishers on the LDP list  柘植芳文(Tsuge Yoshifumi) who used to be the head of the powerful National Post Office and as mentioned before 山田太郎 (Tarō Yamada) who now controls the "geek vote."

I looked around and constructed a list of local kingpins and tried to compute their impact on the PR vote of their party in said prefecture

Name                   Party     National PR    Prefecture    Prefecture      Prefecture     Prefecture 
                                           vote                           personal vote      Party PR    Party PR 2017
和田政宗                               228K             宮城            35K
(Masamune Wada)   LDP       0.58%        (Miyagi)         3.67%            39.61%         34.78%

佐藤信秋                               233K             新潟             29K
(Satō Nobuaki)        LDP       0.46%        (Niigata)        2.91%           43.73%          38.24%
 
宮本周司                               202K             石川             63K
(Miyamoto Shūji)     LDP       0.40%       (Ishikawa)     14.52%           51.47%          43.32%

北村経夫                               178K            山口              35K
(Kitamura Tsuneo)   LDP       0.36%      (Yamaguchi)     9.89%           50.24%          48.12%

衛藤晟一                               155K            大分              38K
(Etō Seiichi)            LDP       0.31%         (Ōita)            8.05%          37.45%          32.48%

木村義雄                                 92K            香川             21K
(Kimura Yoshio)       LDP       0.18%      (Kagawa)         5.80%           43.28%          39.64%

吉田忠智                               149K           大分              48K
(Yoshida Tadatomo) SDP      0.30%         (Ōita)          10.06%           15.51%          11.85%

鈴木宗男                              221K           北海道            94K
(Suzuki Muneo)       JRP      0.44%       (Hokkaido)       3.96%             7.78%           2.76%

柴田巧                                  54K             富山              33K
(Shibata Takumi)     JRP      0.11%       (Toyama)        8.26%            14.54%           7.04%

和田政宗((Masamune Wada) of 宮城(Miyagi) was from a YP background and found himself as the had of the rump PJK which he merged into LDP earlier in 2019.

北村経夫((Kitamura Tsuneo) of 山口(Yamaguchi) had a bigger impact than these numbers suggest since this is Abe's home prefecture and Abe running here clearly pushed up LDP PR vote here in 2017.

吉田忠智(Yoshida Tadatomo) of 大分(Ōita) is the former head of SDP.

鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) of 北海道(Hokkaido) is the head of LDP splinter NPD which used to be allied with DPJ but these days are aligned with LDP.

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xelas81
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« Reply #598 on: July 29, 2019, 12:30:22 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2019, 12:33:37 PM by xelas81 »

To get a sense of the relative strength and reliance on the personal vote I broke out the PR vote for each party into votes for a candidate and votes for the party itself.

        PR Vote        Personal Vote        Party Vote
LDP   35.37%              9.98%             25.39%
KP     13.05%              4.50%              8.56% 
JRP     9.80%               1.38%              8.42%
PNHK  1.97%               0.29%              1.68%
HRP    0.40%               0.09%              0.32%
DPP    6.95%               2.61%              4.34%
CDP  15.81%               2.44%            13.38%
Olive   0.34%               0.06%              0.27% 
RS      4.55%               2.11%              2.45%
SDP    2.09%               0.57%              1.52%
LAB    0.16%                0.04%             0.12%       
JCP     8.95%               0.86%              8.09%
EP      0.54%               0.07%              0.54%   

First, the KP personal vote is bogus. All of them were voted for by instruction from KP High command.  For KP you can pretty much assume that there is NO personal vote and all the vote are for KP the party.  Beyond that the size of the LDP personal vote is large.  Many represent key interest groups/constituencies or are regional kingpins.   The DPP PR vote is also fairly dependent on the personal vote most of which are Rengo labor union vote.

Examples of powerful LDP key interest groups/constituencies PR candidates are the top two finishers on the LDP list  柘植芳文(Tsuge Yoshifumi) who used to be the head of the powerful National Post Office and as mentioned before 山田太郎 (Tarō Yamada) who now controls the "geek vote."

I looked around and constructed a list of local kingpins and tried to compute their impact on the PR vote of their party in said prefecture

Name                   Party     National PR    Prefecture    Prefecture      Prefecture     Prefecture 
                                           vote                           personal vote      Party PR    Party PR 2017
和田政宗                               228K             宮城            35K
(Masamune Wada)   LDP       0.58%        (Miyagi)         3.67%            39.61%         34.78%

佐藤信秋                               233K             新潟             29K
(Satō Nobuaki)        LDP       0.46%        (Niigata)        2.91%           43.73%          38.24%
 
宮本周司                               202K             石川             63K
(Miyamoto Shūji)     LDP       0.40%       (Ishikawa)     14.52%           51.47%          43.32%

北村経夫                               178K            山口              35K
(Kitamura Tsuneo)   LDP       0.36%      (Yamaguchi)     9.89%           50.24%          48.12%

衛藤晟一                               155K            大分              38K
(Etō Seiichi)            LDP       0.31%         (Ōita)            8.05%          37.45%          32.48%

木村義雄                                 92K            香川             21K
(Kimura Yoshio)       LDP       0.18%      (Kagawa)         5.80%           43.28%          39.64%

吉田忠智                               149K           大分              48K
(Yoshida Tadatomo) SDP      0.30%         (Ōita)          10.06%           15.51%          11.85%

鈴木宗男                              221K           北海道            94K
(Suzuki Muneo)       JRP      0.44%       (Hokkaido)       3.96%             7.78%           2.76%

柴田巧                                  54K             富山              33K
(Shibata Takumi)     JRP      0.11%       (Toyama)        8.26%            14.54%           7.04%

和田政宗((Masamune Wada) of 宮城(Miyagi) was from a YP background and found himself as the had of the rump PJK which he merged into LDP earlier in 2019.

北村経夫((Kitamura Tsuneo) of 山口(Yamaguchi) had a bigger impact than these numbers suggest since this is Abe's home prefecture and Abe running here clearly pushed up LDP PR vote here in 2017.

吉田忠智(Yoshida Tadatomo) of 大分(Ōita) is the former head of SDP.

鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) of 北海道(Hokkaido) is the head of LDP splinter NPD which used to be allied with DPJ but these days are aligned with LDP.


The candidates with most personal votes but did not win are DPP's 石上俊雄 and 田中久弥 with 192k and 143k and LDP's 比嘉奈津美 with 114k votes.
The candidate with least personal votes but still was elected is the 7th KP PR winner 塩田博昭
 with just 15k votes.
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jaichind
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« Reply #599 on: July 29, 2019, 03:17:50 PM »


The candidates with most personal votes but did not win are DPP's 石上俊雄 and 田中久弥 with 192k and 143k and LDP's 比嘉奈津美 with 114k votes.
The candidate with least personal votes but still was elected is the 7th KP PR winner 塩田博昭
 with just 15k votes.


Well for that honor RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) clearly takes that prize by winning 992K vote but not winning a seat.  Of course he is another example of someone with a large personal vote and pretty much carried RS to 2 seats.

With 992,267.053 votes RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is the higher vote winner on the PR slate and second high vote winner in the entire election only coming behind 東京(Tokyo) LDP's 丸川珠代(Marukawa Tamayo).  Yet 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  did not win a seat since RS only won 2 PR seats and he placed 2  "specific quota" candidates on the RS list ahead of him.

Note that the vote count 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) won was 992,267.053.  The reason for fractional vote are because voters write down the name of the candidate they want to vote for.  If someone wrote just  "山本" or Yamamoto on the PR vote the vote is split proportionally between all the PR candidates that has  "山本" or Yamamoto  as their last name.  There are at least 3 more PR candidates with "山本" or Yamamoto as the last name (1 LDP and 2 KP).

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