2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 47782 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #550 on: July 21, 2019, 09:07:00 PM »

ANN exit polls ended being very accurate

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jaichind
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« Reply #551 on: July 21, 2019, 09:13:23 PM »

Jiji exit poll on how independents voted in 2016 2017 and 2019 on PR vote

               2016     2017     2019
LDP         26.1       22.7      25.5
KP            7.2        6.5        6.8
ORA/JRP  12.8       8.8       12.4
HP                      19.6
DPP                                   6.2
DP           25.3
CDP                    28.0       21.0
RS                                     9.8
SDP                                   2.4
JCP         12.3      7.9          8.7
 

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jaichind
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« Reply #552 on: July 22, 2019, 04:19:21 AM »

With all of the PR vote counted

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share    My predicted seats
LDP   35.37%     19                      35.5%                      19
KP     13.05%      7                       13.4%                       7
JRP     9.80%      5                       10.1%                       5
PNHK  1.97%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    6.95%      3                        4.8%                        2
CDP  15.81%      8                      18.9%                      10
Olive   0.34%                                0.5%
RS      4.55%     2                         2.3%                       1
SDP    2.09%     1                         2.1%                       1
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP     8.95%     4                         9.9%                       5
EP      0.54%                                0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

RS and DPP over-performed at the expense of CDP and JCP.  PNHK was able to eat into enough of the protest vote of HRP and EP to win a seat.   I generally go the vote share of the different blocs correctly.

                       Result          My prediction
LDP-KP             48.43%           48.90% (LDP KP)
Center-Left       29.90%           28.80% (CDP DPP RS SDP Olive LAB)
Third Pole         12.18%           12.10% (JRP PNHK HRP)
JCP                    8.95%             9.90%

Main deviation between the blocs for me is that RS took about 1% from JCP than I had expected.  The results follow the trend that viable or near viable new parties over-perform  (RS and PNHK) just like CDP over-performed in 2017.  If history is any guide both RS and PNHK will fall a bunch from these levels next election. 

It is clear that lower turnout also include lower turnout of LDP voters as well and not just Center-Left voters.  Still lower turnout clearly hurt CDP the most.  DPP is more depending on the rural Center-Left vote which it seems held up more and as a result over-performed. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #553 on: July 22, 2019, 04:29:29 AM »

My computed district vote share

LDP            39.77%
KP               7.77%
IND(Right)   0.45%
JRP              7.28%
HRP             0.37%
PNHK           3.02% !!!
DPP             6.47%
CDP           15.79%
Olive            0.18% (Anti-nuclear Center-Left)
RS               0.43%
LAB              0.15% (New Left)
SDP             0.38%
IND(Left)     0.13%
JCP              7.37%
OPPN           9.87% (Opposition joint candidate with JCP support except for 広島(Hiroshima))
EP               0.43%

PNHK at 3.02% along with HRP at 0.37% shows the scale of the protest vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #554 on: July 22, 2019, 05:12:15 AM »

Do you know a page where I can see the PR vote breakdown by prefecture?

Also, Tokushima-Kochi seems a bit closer than I would expect given the opposition candidate had JCP background. Maybe it could have been competitive with, say, a CDP candidate?

http://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000634956.xls

Has the breakdown vote by prefecture.  There is a tab for each party on the PR list.  It is not easy to read as it gives results by each PR list candidate with the sum of all such candidates by party and vote by party at the end of each tab.
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jaichind
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« Reply #555 on: July 22, 2019, 06:40:53 AM »

I did an initial scan of the PR vote share for RS and PNHK by prefecture.  RS is stronger in urban areas relative to rural areas.  PNHK is stronger in the North than the South.  RS clearly draws from JCP and CDP supporters of 2017.  The PNHK PR voter are protest voters but it seems more likely than not to be ex-Center-Left voters.  The much larger PNHK district vote are more likely to be disgruntled LDP voters on top of the PNHK PR vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #556 on: July 22, 2019, 07:11:01 AM »

岩手(Iwate) Opposition margin over LDP.  The level of polarization  is quite high with Ozawa's district very heavy for opposition and the rest of the prefecture lean LDP.

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jaichind
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« Reply #557 on: July 22, 2019, 07:52:00 AM »

Looking at the PR vote share by prefecture one trend is that relative performance of LDP in rural prefecture increased and likewise decreased in rural prefectures.  So the "lean" of rural prefectures in favor of LDP grew significantly to a record level.  Likewise the "lean" of urban prefectures in favor of JRP JCP and the Center-Left parties also grew to record levels (at least for JRP.)

It seems what took place was marginal JRP CDP JCP rural voters did not turnout while marginal LDP urban voters did not turnout which led to a fall of overall turnout to very low levels.  If so then the United Opposition got lucky that they won 10 out of the mostly rural 32 1- member districts since relative LDP strength grew there.  The KP PR and some LDP PR defections to the United Opposition and PNHK did LDP in despite a stronger PR performance in these rural areas.

The Upper House election system is "rigged' in the sense that in areas that LDP is strong (rural areas) it is all 1- member seats which makes it FPTP.  In areas of relative LDP weakness it is multi-member district which makes it more like PR.  In addition LDP-Third Pole tactical voting is more effective than Center-Left-JCP tactical voting in these multi-member districts.
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jaichind
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« Reply #558 on: July 22, 2019, 06:30:44 PM »

It seems that in the 32 1- member districts the Center-Left-JCP Grand alliance was not the only "grand  alliance" that were formed.  In seems that PNHK and HRP also formed a tactical alliance where only one of the two parties would contest.   PNHK contested 24 1- member seats and HRP contested 3 1- member districts.   5 were not contested by neither (富山(Toyama), 石川(Ishikawa), 和歌山(Wakayama), 佐賀(Saga), and 鹿児島(Kagoshima).  It seems that this de facto alliance want to corner the protest vote and had a seat adjustment so they did not compete with each other for the protest vote.  Neither contesting 鹿児島(Kagoshima) makes sense as the LDP rebel running will most likely pick up the protest vote.  Not sure why PNHK-HRP did not run in the other 4 1- member district.    

This PNHK-HRP alliance won on average 4.61% of the vote in the 27 1- member seats they contested.   This alliance did not hold up in the multi-member seats.  HRP ran in some of them and clearly hurt PNHK.  In the 7 multi-member seats that PNHK ran without HRP running PNHK won on average 3.52% of the vote.  For the 6 multi-member seats that PNHK with HRP in the fray PNHK won on average 2.31% of the vote with HRP winning on average 0.61% of the vote so HRP clearly eats into the PNHK vote share and in many ways PNHK and HRP have similar appeal to protest voters as well as some disgruntled LDP voters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #559 on: July 22, 2019, 06:38:30 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2019, 09:27:23 PM by jaichind »

Out of the 9 OPPN winners: 2 will most likely caucus with CDP, 6 will most likely caucus with DPP, and 1 is really a member of 沖縄(Okinawa) based OMSP.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #560 on: July 22, 2019, 06:39:37 PM »

Abe vows to push forward constitutional change despite failure of pro-revision forces to win Upper House supermajority

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/07/22/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-vows-push-forward-constitutional-change-despite-failure-pro-revision-forces-win-upper-house-supermajority/#.XTZJBehKiUk

Abe seems to still want to work with Opposition parties to achieve Constitutional Revision in 2020.
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jaichind
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« Reply #561 on: July 22, 2019, 09:42:26 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2019, 07:04:46 PM by jaichind »

New seat count in Upper House

LDP  113
KP     28
CDP   32
DPP   21
JCP    13
JRP    16
SDP     2
OPPN 13
RS       2
PNHK   1
Others 4



A more detailed chart by class would be
      
        2016 class  2019 class  Total
LDP        56            57         113
KP         14            14            28
JRP          6            10           16
YP           1              0             1  渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) reactivated 1 man YP
VP           2              0             2  国民の声(Voice of People) ex-DP open to Constitutional Revision
PNHK       0             1             1 I suspect open to Constitutional Revision
IND         1              0            1 ex-DP open to Constitutional Revision
DPP       15             6           21
OPPN      4              9           13 (some caucus with DPP others caucus with CDP)  
CDP       15           17           32
RS          0             2             2
SDP        1              1            2
JCP         6              7          13
-------------------------------------------------
Total     121         124         245

LDP loses majority party status.  In 2016 LDP regained it for the first time since 1989 but after 3 years lost it again.

Constitutional Revision requires 2/3 or 164 seats.
LDP+KP+JRP+YP =  158
If you added in VP ex-DP IND and PNHK you get 162 which is 2 short.

Just getting to this 162 would require all sorts of political games and capital.  As mentioned before trying to get DPP on board would be the only viable option left to Abe.

And waiting for 2022 Upper House elections would be even worse.  3 ex-DP MPs elected in 2016 that are open to Constitutional Revision are really by themselves outside DPP and CDP circles which means they will not be re-elected.  So LDP-KP-JRP will have to gain 3 seats on top of 2016 election results just to stay even.
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jaichind
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« Reply #562 on: July 23, 2019, 04:50:48 AM »

Jiji exit poll for 18-19 year and PR slate

LDP   41.0
KP     10.8
JRP     7.0
DPP    5.0
CDP  13.9
RS     7.4
SDP   0.8
JCP    5.0

LDP and RS clearly over-perform in this demographic although some of the LDP vote for PR might be KP PR voters in disguise
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jaichind
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« Reply #563 on: July 23, 2019, 04:56:14 AM »

Post election Kyodo poll

Abe Cabinet approve/disapprove 48.6/38.2
Abe getting 4 term as LDP president approve/disapprove  40.6/52.6
Plan to increase consumption tax approve/disapprove 39.8/55.9
Constitutional Revision approve/disapprove  32.2/56.0
Pro-Constitutional Revision forces failure to win 2/3 majority approve/disapprove 29.8/12.2
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xelas81
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« Reply #564 on: July 23, 2019, 10:25:47 AM »

Post election Kyodo poll

Abe Cabinet approve/disapprove 48.6/38.2
Abe getting 4 term as LDP president approve/disapprove  40.6/52.6
Plan to increase consumption tax approve/disapprove 39.8/55.9
Constitutional Revision approve/disapprove  32.2/56.0
Pro-Constitutional Revision forces failure to win 2/3 majority approve/disapprove 29.8/12.2

Would delaying the consumption tax increase would lead into more deficit or budget cuts?
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jaichind
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« Reply #565 on: July 23, 2019, 11:07:48 AM »

Post election Kyodo poll

Abe Cabinet approve/disapprove 48.6/38.2
Abe getting 4 term as LDP president approve/disapprove  40.6/52.6
Plan to increase consumption tax approve/disapprove 39.8/55.9
Constitutional Revision approve/disapprove  32.2/56.0
Pro-Constitutional Revision forces failure to win 2/3 majority approve/disapprove 29.8/12.2

Would delaying the consumption tax increase would lead into more deficit or budget cuts?

No, that will just kick the deficit can down the road.  Of course the USA is no different.  Back in 2014 when the consumption tax went up there was a mini-recession which is why there is a lot of reservation and tension about this tax increase.  The Abe government has all sort of short term spending that balances out the impact of the tax increase so what took place in 2014 is unlikely to happen again.
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jaichind
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« Reply #566 on: July 23, 2019, 09:37:17 PM »

PNHK leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) 18 minute official campaign statement given on NHK which is mostly attacking NHK and repeating his slogan "Crush NHK" every 30 seconds or so has over 3.1 million views

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRi4od_Thus&t=764s
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jaichind
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« Reply #567 on: July 23, 2019, 09:46:15 PM »

Nikkei analysis of voting by age group came out with results if only certain age groups voted.

                         LDP-KP       Opposition
18-19                  71                 53
20-29                  72                 52
30-39                  73                 51
40-49                  71                 53
50-59                  71                 53
60-69                  64                 60
70+                    73                 51
Actual result        71                 53

The 60-69 age group anti-LDP lean is clear
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jaichind
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« Reply #568 on: July 23, 2019, 09:49:44 PM »

Various post election polls do not show a bump in Abe Cabinet approval


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jaichind
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« Reply #569 on: July 24, 2019, 05:39:30 PM »

Japanese version of uselectionatlas predictions.  Had I submitted my prediction I would have gotten 145 points and be in 7th place out of around 50 some entries.




Final prediction with turnout likely to be around 51%

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP LDP (JCP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP (competitive)                                 
岩手   Iwate               1             OPPN (competitive) 
宮城   Miyagi               1            CDP  (competitive)     
秋田   Akita                1             OPPN (competitive)                                 
山形   Yamagata         1             OPPN (competitive)                       
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP (competitive)                     
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP CDP (JCP)                           
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                           
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                 
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP CDP KP JCP (JRP)                     
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP CDP LDP (JCP)                   
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP CDP KP JRP (JCP)           
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP     
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP JCP KP LDP CDP CDP (JRP)   
新潟   Niigata             1            OPPN (competitive)             
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                 
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                 
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                 
長野   Nagano             1             DPP                             
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                 
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPP  (CDP)                         
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP DPP CDP KP (JCP)               
三重   Mie                   1             LDP (competitive)                               
滋賀   Shiga                1             OPPN  (competitive) 
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (JCP)   
大阪   Osaka               4             JRP LDP KP JRP (CDP)           
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP JRP KP (CDP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                 
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                 
鳥取 Tottori                 
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                 
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP           
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP LDP (OPPN)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                 
徳島   Tokushima   
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                 
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                 
愛媛   Ehime              1             OPPN (competitive)                                   
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP CDP (JCP)                     
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                 
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                 
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                 
大分   Ōita                  1            LDP (competitive)             
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                 
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                 
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN     
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9
                                                           
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                19                    35.5%               40                     59
KP                   7                     13.4%                7                     14
JRP                  5                     10.1%                4                       9
HRP                 0                      0.5%                0                       0
PNHK               0                      1.5%                0                       0
Euthanasia       0                      0.3%                0                       0
DPP                  2                     4.8%                3                       5
CDP                10                   18.9%               11                    21
SDP                 1                       2.1%               0                       1
RS                   1                      2.3%                0                       1
LAB                 0                       0.2%               0                        0
Olive               0                       0.5%               0                        0
JCP                 5                       9.9%               2                        7
OPPN                                                              9                       9

Which would give us by bloc (124 total seats)

LDP-KP          73
Center-Left    35
Third Pole       9
JCP                7

The 2016 class is now (121 total seats)

LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third Pole        7
JCP                 6

Which combines to gives us after the 2019 elections

LDP-KP        144
Center-Left    72
Third Pole      16
JCP               13

The Center-Left + JCP would form 34.69% of the 245 member chamber which would barely be enough to block a Constitutional revision. 

The main controversial part of my prediction is I am sticking to CDP beating JCP for the second seat in 京都(Kyoto) despite pattern of lower turnout which should favor JCP based on KP JRP and LDP tactical voting for CDP to beat JCP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #570 on: July 25, 2019, 11:14:17 AM »
« Edited: July 25, 2019, 11:56:23 AM by jaichind »

I have looked over the 32 1- member districts and grouping them by Opposition candidate type (CDP DPP or OPPN) as well as opposition candidate quality (political experience in said prefecture) I did a bunch of regression by PR vote.  I grouped PR vote by (LDP KP JRP DPP CDP Left [RS SDP Olive LAB], Protest parties (HRP PNHK) JCP and EP)

What I found was mostly expected by still interesting

1) When the opposition candidate is from the CDP, the JRP PR voter leans very heavy for LDP (88-8).

2) When the opposition candidate is from the DPP, the JRP PR voter still leans LDP has some support for the Opposition candidate (74-20).  On the flip side in such cases there are some defections from CDP PR (80-18) and JCP PR (88-11) voters that voted LDP

3) When the Opposition candidate is Independent (OPPN) with less political experience there are more defections from KP PR (86-14) to vote OPPN even as JRP PR (89-4) voter still lean very heavy for LDP.  At the same time running as OPPN seems to create some defections from JCP PR (83-17) voters

4) When the opposition candidate is a high quality candidate (someone with significant political experience in said prefecture) there is almost no defection from the various Center-Left PR voters (DPP CDP Left JCP) while there is significant defection from LDP PR (78-18) and JRP PR (67-27) voters to vote for opposition candidate. There are some defection from KP PR (90-10) voters but no greater than an OPPN candidate with smaller amount of political experience.

5) In the one case the opposition candidate is a JCP candidate it is clear that not only does he not capture any LDP KP JRP PR voters there are significant defection from non-JCP PR voters from the Center-Left.  But in the two case where the opposition candidate is JCP candidate running as OPPN the level of Center-Left PR voters are much reduced and there are even a bit of cross-voting by JRP PR voters.  So the Center-Right PR votes are hostile to label JCP and not not necessary the JCP policies.  The KP PR voter is the exception where there is almost no defection from KP PR voter for the JCP candidate running as OPPN.  This is not a surprise as KP is very hostile to JCP.

6) HRP and PNHK should be considered Third Pole parties.  Most of the district vote PNHK-HRP received beyond the PNHK PR and HRP PR voters are from LDP and JRP PR voters.  So a good part of the PNHK-HRP district vote are disgruntled LDP PR and JRP PR voters.

The two seats which I kept out of the regression because they are such outliers are 福井(Fukui) (where JCP ran as the opposition candidate) and 愛媛(Ehime) where the OPPN candidate has massive local appeal and way exceeded the Center-Left-JCP base.

福井(Fukui) district results are

LDP       66.14%
PNHK      7.69%
JCP       26.18%

PR section results are

LDP       45.20%
KP        10.51%
JRP        6.54%
Protest   2.60% (PNHK HRP)
DPP       9.98%
CDP     12.04%
Left       6.37% (RS SDP Olive LAB)
JCP        6.38%
EP         0.38%

Clear signs of defection of Center-Left PR votes especially when most of the PNHK votes are from LDP PR and JRP PR voters.


愛媛(Ehime) district results are

LDP       41.51%
PNHK      2.49%
OPPN    56.00%

PR section results are

LDP      41.65%
KP        15.40%
JRP        9.08%
Protest   2.21% (PNHK HRP)
DPP       7.98%
CDP     11.87%
Left       5.73% (RS SDP Olive LAB)
JCP       5.79%
EP         0.29%

Clear signs of defection from Center-Right PR voters for OPPN.  It seems that disgruntled LDP PR and JRP PR voters that would have voted PNHK or HRP in other prefecture voted OPPN to show their anger.
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jaichind
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« Reply #571 on: July 25, 2019, 11:47:32 AM »

In the 32 1- member districts running as an independent seems to help the opposition candidate.  If you compare CDP candidate performance relative to OPPN candidate with CDP background, DPP candidate performance relative to OPPN candidate with DPP or Rengo background, and JCP candidate performance relative to OPPN candidate with JCP background it is clear that given a background you much rather run as an OPPN candidate.

The way you do this is to compare the average vote share of different candidate types and compare pare them the the average Center Left PR + JCP PR vote share in places where this candidate type ran.  This compare the performance relative to the "base vote" of said candidate

                                                          Avg District      Avg Center-Left+JCP
                             Number    (W-L)       Vote share         PR Vote share
CDP                            7          1-6             39.13%               38.99%
OPPN(CDP)                 4          3-1              50.03%               37.82%

DPP(incumbent)          1         1-0             55.13%               49.42%
DPP                            5          0-5            34.92%                31.51%
OPPN(DPP/Rengo)     11           4-7            42.35%                36.89%
 
JCP                             1         0-1             26.18%               34.78%           
OPPN(JCP)                  2          0-2            35.86%                35.33%

OPPN(OMSP)               1         1-0            53.57%                52.37%

To make it an apples-to-apples comparison in the couple cases a minor Left wing candidate was in the fray I added those votes toward the Opposition candidate vote share since these candidates almost certainly drew on Center-Left-JCP PR votes.

For 長野(Nagano) the DPP candidate is an incumbent (the only opposition candidate in the 32 1- member seats which is an incumbent while 28 out of 32 LDP candidates are incumbents) so I split that result out from the rest of DPP given the incumbent advantage he will enjoy.     


Running as OPPN allows the candidate to minimize defections and eat into the Center-Right PR vote shares relative to running with a party label.  Part of this is self-selection. High quality candidates with local political roots can relay on his or her name to get votes while those which are not high quality might need the party label to turn out voters due to low name recognition   

Note that DPP got the harder seats since the seats they ran in have a lower Center-Left + JCP PR vote shares.  DPP is stronger in the Rural South while CDP is stronger in the North.  LDP-KP is clearly stronger in the Rural South so DPP has to take on those seats and mostly lose.

On the LDP side, as mentioned before the LDP had 28 incumbents and 4 non-incumbents.  The W-L rate for the 28 incumbents are 21-7 while the W-L rate for non-incumbents are 1-3.  That the opposition chocked off 7 LDP incumbents in the 32 1- member districts is quite an accomplishment.
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jaichind
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« Reply #572 on: July 25, 2019, 06:07:07 PM »

PNHK leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) and newly elected MP on the PR list indicates that PNHK is open to backing Abe Constitutional revision if LDP can support his agenda of de-funding NHK
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jaichind
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« Reply #573 on: July 25, 2019, 07:08:29 PM »

The moment NHK makes the call that PNHK has won a seat I guess is this election's Portillo moment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okJoPkWUQdQ&list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=31103s
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jaichind
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« Reply #574 on: July 25, 2019, 09:16:31 PM »

With 992,267.053 votes RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is the higher vote winner on the PR slate and second high vote winner in the entire election only coming behind 東京(Tokyo) LDP's 丸川珠代(Marukawa Tamayo).  Yet 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  did not win a seat since RS only won 2 PR seats and he placed 2  "specific quota" candidates on the RS list ahead of him.

Note that the vote count 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) won was 992,267.053.  The reason for fractional vote are because voters write down the name of the candidate they want to vote for.  If someone wrote just  "山本" or Yamamoto on the PR vote the vote is split proportionally between all the PR candidates that has  "山本" or Yamamoto  as their last name.  There are at least 3 more PR candidates with "山本" or Yamamoto as the last name (1 LDP and 2 KP).
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