2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 47764 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #475 on: July 21, 2019, 08:44:50 AM »

NHK calls the second seat of 京都(Kyoto) for JCP.  Wow.  I guess I was wrong.   The CDP candidate is an LGBT activist which I figured might lose it some votes.  It seems that it did cost her and there were LDP and even KP tactical voting for JCP to defeat CDP despite the animosity of LDP and KP voters toward JCP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #476 on: July 21, 2019, 08:51:48 AM »

In 2- member 広島(Hiroshima) it is

OPPN  32.8%
LDP    28.7%
LDP    28.6%
JCP      6.4%
PNHK   1.7%

LDP achieved its goal of equalizing its vote share across its two candidates.  It seems OPPN vote share was just too big to overcome.
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kaoras
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« Reply #477 on: July 21, 2019, 08:54:31 AM »

NHK calls the second seat of 京都(Kyoto) for JCP.  Wow.  I guess I was wrong.   The CDP candidate is an LGBT activist which I figured might lose it some votes.  It seems that it did cost her and there were LDP and even KP tactical voting for JCP to defeat CDP despite the animosity of LDP and KP voters toward JCP.

CDP is still narrowly ahead in the vote counted but what's left is mostly Kyoto proper where JCP is stronger. Notably, Sakyo-Ku (京都市左京区) still hasn't reported anything. There in the 2018 gubernatorial election, the JCP backed candidate won by 5 points while losing by 12 in the prefecture as a whole (and is one of the areas with the highest turnout)
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #478 on: July 21, 2019, 08:57:41 AM »

OPPN win Oita
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jaichind
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« Reply #479 on: July 21, 2019, 08:59:24 AM »

NHK called 大分(Ōita) for OPPN.  An upset for sure.
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jaichind
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« Reply #480 on: July 21, 2019, 09:00:51 AM »

Despite lower turnout this election is turning out to be an "Meh" for LDP.  It seems pretty unlikely now that LDP-KP-JRP can retain the 2/3 majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #481 on: July 21, 2019, 09:02:25 AM »

LDP slightly ahead in 岩手(Iwate) and slightly behind in 宮城(Miyagi) and 滋賀(Shiga)
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jaichind
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« Reply #482 on: July 21, 2019, 09:03:32 AM »

NHK calls the second seat of 京都(Kyoto) for JCP.  Wow.  I guess I was wrong.   The CDP candidate is an LGBT activist which I figured might lose it some votes.  It seems that it did cost her and there were LDP and even KP tactical voting for JCP to defeat CDP despite the animosity of LDP and KP voters toward JCP.

CDP is still narrowly ahead in the vote counted but what's left is mostly Kyoto proper where JCP is stronger. Notably, Sakyo-Ku (京都市左京区) still hasn't reported anything. There in the 2018 gubernatorial election, the JCP backed candidate won by 5 points while losing by 12 in the prefecture as a whole (and is one of the areas with the highest turnout)

Yeah.  I noticed that Japanese media is much more willing to call races for a candidate that is in theory behind in the count than USA media outfits.
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jaichind
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« Reply #483 on: July 21, 2019, 09:06:11 AM »

So far I am wrong in 広島(Hiroshima) (I called for LDP to win vs OPPN for second seat), 京都(Kyoto)  (I called for CDP to win vs JCP for second seat) and 大分(Ōita) (I called for LDP versus OPPN)

Most likely I will also be wrong about 東京(Tokyo)(I called CDP to win the 6th seat vs JRP)
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #484 on: July 21, 2019, 09:06:51 AM »

around 360 votes in it in Iwate, OPPN just ahead.

OPPN looking good in Shiga, CDP just ahead in Miyagi
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #485 on: July 21, 2019, 09:16:22 AM »

Iwate looking more and more like an OPPN win
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jaichind
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« Reply #486 on: July 21, 2019, 09:18:19 AM »

The count in  兵庫(Hyōgo) is now

JRP   24.0%
KP    22.8%
LDP  22.1%
CDP  20.3%
JCP    8.4%
PNHK 2.3%

It was suppose to be LDP ahead and KP JRP and CDP in a 3 way tie.  Now it seems LDP is the weakest of LDP KP JRP group.
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jaichind
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« Reply #487 on: July 21, 2019, 09:19:10 AM »

LDP back ahead in 宮城(Miyagi).  I think in the end it still goes CDP.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #488 on: July 21, 2019, 09:20:48 AM »

Yep, Iwate just got called
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jaichind
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« Reply #489 on: July 21, 2019, 09:21:31 AM »

Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      3          3       6
OPPN   8                   8

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   7                   7

5 more PR seats to allocate
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jaichind
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« Reply #490 on: July 21, 2019, 09:24:24 AM »

In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) it is

LDP  21.3%
KP    14.8%
JCP   13.4%
CDP  13.1%
LDP  10.1%
JRP    9.6%
CDP   9.3%
DPP   2.7%
RS     2.4%
PNHK 1.4%
SDP   0.8%

Still close between JRP and CDP for 6th and last seat. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #491 on: July 21, 2019, 09:28:03 AM »

In 滋賀(Shiga) with 82% of the vote counted it is

OPPN 48.6%
LDP   47.3%
PNHK  4.1%

PNHK is capturing all the protest vote just like HRP did back in 2016 and most likely will cost LDP this seat.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #492 on: July 21, 2019, 09:29:56 AM »

OPPN win Shiga
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jaichind
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« Reply #493 on: July 21, 2019, 09:30:39 AM »

I looked at the count the various 1- member districts.  PNHK is getting between 2.5% to nearly 5% of the vote.  This is the "Against All" option.  I suspect this bunch tends to lean LDP so they, like HRP in 2016, most likely cost LDP a couple of seats.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #494 on: July 21, 2019, 09:33:49 AM »

CDP now ahead of JRP in Tokyo, still razor thin margins though.
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jaichind
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« Reply #495 on: July 21, 2019, 09:33:50 AM »

宮城(Miyagi) seems to be the only 1- member district left.  With 52% of the vote counted it is LDP 48.7 CDP 47.6 PNHK 3.7
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jaichind
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« Reply #496 on: July 21, 2019, 09:37:03 AM »

In  兵庫(Hyōgo) with 66% of the vote counted it is

JRP   24.6%
KP    23.1%
LDP  21.8%
CDP  20.5%
JCP    7.9%
PNHK 2.2%

Most likely CDP will not make it despite what the exit polls said. But this one was a wild ride.
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jaichind
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« Reply #497 on: July 21, 2019, 09:39:53 AM »

Outstanding vote in 宮城(Miyagi) leans Sendai City(仙台市).  If so I would say CDP has the edge over LDP even though right now LDP is ahead 48.7 to 47.6 in the count right now
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #498 on: July 21, 2019, 09:40:24 AM »

Kawai Anri will win the LDP seat in Hiroshima.
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jaichind
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« Reply #499 on: July 21, 2019, 09:42:57 AM »

2- member 京都(Kyoto) which has been called for LDP and JCP is now with 86% of the vote counted
 
LDP    43.3%
JCP    25.9%
CDP   25.4%
PNHK  3.8%

So it seems country to what I guess there were some anti-CDP tactical voting by LDP JRP and KP voters in addition to some anti-JCP tactical voting as well.  The anti-LGBT vote is not large but made a difference on the margins.  Some of that vote it seems also went to PNHK.
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