2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 10:54:11 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 16 17 18 [19] 20 21 22 23 24 ... 27
Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 47834 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #450 on: July 21, 2019, 07:37:47 AM »

NHK called 長崎(Nagasaki) for LDP which I am sure is a relief to LDP
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #451 on: July 21, 2019, 07:38:45 AM »


Yeah, that was a scare for LDP for a while too. Of course Ashai call that a while ago.  Still my understanding is the vote share gap is smaller than expected
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #452 on: July 21, 2019, 07:44:27 AM »

Asahi called 三重(Mie) for LDP a while ago.  Again there the fundamentals are against LDP but the local Center-Left forces and JCP does not get along.  They made it work in 2016 to defeat LDP.  This time the local chemistry was not there. 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #453 on: July 21, 2019, 07:46:49 AM »

NHK exit poll for 兵庫(Hyōgo) broken down by early vote and election day vote.  Early date vote is very KP heavy.  Election day vote is very JRP heavy.


Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,347
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #454 on: July 21, 2019, 07:49:51 AM »

Morimoto is elected in Hiroshima
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #455 on: July 21, 2019, 07:53:07 AM »

Morimoto is elected in Hiroshima

Asahi called this a while ago

Asahi calls  second seat of 広島(Hiroshima) for OPPN defeating LDP's gambit to win both seats.  This is the first seat I got wrong.  It is ironic as I only changed my prediction as the voting started because of low turnout.  I should have stuck to my guns.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #456 on: July 21, 2019, 07:54:09 AM »

NHK called 新潟(Niigata) for OPPN.  Another 1- member battleground called.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #457 on: July 21, 2019, 07:55:35 AM »

Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     32        18      50
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          3       5
OPPN   5                   5

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

5 more PR seats to allocate
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #458 on: July 21, 2019, 07:57:03 AM »

A lot of these 1- member districts are like VA in terms of being called. Pro-LDP rural votes comes in first so as soon as the Opposition candidate takes the lead it is called for Opposition.  In VA as soon as the Dems are ahead of GOP it is called since NOVA always comes in last.
Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,347
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #459 on: July 21, 2019, 07:57:46 AM »

Aomori goes LDP
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #460 on: July 21, 2019, 08:01:09 AM »

NHK exit polls for

千葉(Chiba)


埼玉(Saitama)


神奈川(Kanagawa)
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #461 on: July 21, 2019, 08:19:03 AM »

In 岩手(Iwate) it is not called yet but LDP is well ahead and should be called soon.  So the Ozawa fortress falls.  The LDP candidate which used to be a key Ozawa lieutenant is able to capture enough of the Opposition vote to win.    So this 1- member battleground will most likely go LDP.
Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,347
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #462 on: July 21, 2019, 08:21:00 AM »

OPPN win Yamagata
Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,347
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #463 on: July 21, 2019, 08:21:42 AM »

LDP win Kagoshima
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #464 on: July 21, 2019, 08:22:36 AM »

It is neck-to-neck in 大分(Ōita) which have fundamentals that favor the opposition but due to better candidate quality was expected to go LDP.  It seems closer than expected.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #465 on: July 21, 2019, 08:24:16 AM »

NHK called 山形(Yamagata) for OPPN which is another 1- member battleground
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #466 on: July 21, 2019, 08:26:20 AM »

Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        6          6      12
JRP      4           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          3       5
OPPN   6                   6

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   4                   4

5 more PR seats to allocate
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #467 on: July 21, 2019, 08:31:28 AM »

Look at the count in 神奈川(Kanagawa)  and 東京(Tokyo) it is clear that LDP -> JRP tactical voting was very effective.  There is no similar tactical voting between CDP and JCP PR voters in places like 大阪(Osaka)  and 兵庫(Hyōgo)
Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,347
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #468 on: July 21, 2019, 08:31:30 AM »

OPPN look like they're back in the race in Iwate.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #469 on: July 21, 2019, 08:32:09 AM »

OPPN look like they're back in the race in Iwate.

Wow ... I guess that is why I am not NHK and I should leaves the calls to them Smiley
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #470 on: July 21, 2019, 08:34:05 AM »

The count in  兵庫(Hyōgo) is now

LDP  23.2%
KP    22.4%
JRP   21.8%
CDP  20.9%
JCP    8.9%
PNHK 2.8%

4 way tie !!!  Again JCP PR tactical voting could ensured CDP victory which mostly did not take place.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #471 on: July 21, 2019, 08:35:49 AM »

2-member 京都(Kyoto) it is

LDP  48.5%
CDP  25.6%
JCP   23.7%
PNHK  2.9%
Logged
kaoras
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,239
Chile


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #472 on: July 21, 2019, 08:38:16 AM »

NHK calls Kyoto for JCP
Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,347
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #473 on: July 21, 2019, 08:39:55 AM »

KP win seat in Hyogo
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #474 on: July 21, 2019, 08:41:17 AM »

In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) it is

LDP  20.0%
KP    14.7%
JCP   14.5%
CDP  13.8%
JRP   11.1%
LDP   11.0%
CDP    9.7%
DPP    2.0%
RS      1.6%

LDP->JRP tactical voting seems to be carrying them to victory
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 16 17 18 [19] 20 21 22 23 24 ... 27  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 13 queries.