2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

how much is actually riding on the election result?

Not that much.  Only issue at stake is can Abe hold on to his very tenuous 2/3 majority (LDP KP JRP) in the Upper House for a possible Constitutional  Revision in the future.  Even if he succeeds it is unlikely it will work given the political capital that Abe will have to pay to pull it off.

[jaichind]

産経(Sankei) projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         40      20        60
KP            6        7        13
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        11       12       23
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        7                   7  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)


Difference versus last week's projection: LDP gained a district seat from OPPN and SDP gained a PR seat from CDP.

Which would produce

LDP+           73
Center Left   36
Third Pole      7
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          144
Center Left   73
Third Pole     14
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 35.51% of the seats which is enough bloc constitutional revision

産経(Sankei) projection

As I predicted, the pro-LDP 産経(Sankei) came out with a more anti-LDP projection, especially on the 1- member districts

          District    PR      Total
LDP         39      20        59
KP            6        7        13
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        11       13       24
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         0        0
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)



Which would produce

LDP+           72
Center Left   37
Third Pole      7
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          143
Center Left   74
Third Pole     14
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 35.92% of the seats which is enough bloc constitutional revision

[jaichind]

Pretty funny article on PNHK

https://japantoday.com/category/politics/anti-nhk-party-accuses-japan%E2%80%99s-public-broadcaster-of-concealing-'car-sex-adultery'-live-on-nhk

Due to NHK being a public TV, NHK also had to give airtime to PNHK leader 立花孝志(Takashi Tachibana) when then went on a 18 minute rampage attacking NHK.


The first two minutes of his speech was

“So, to all of you sitting in front of your TVs: Crush NHK. And to all of the NHK employees here in the studio: Crush NHK.

It’s easy.

For those who don’t pay the NHK license fee, ‘Crush NHK’ means to stop NHK’s broadcasting signal or, to put it in technical terms; implement a scrambling of the NHK signal.

Crush NHK.

Why should we crush NHK? It’s because NHK is hiding the fact that its male and female announcers have had car-sex adultery on the street.

Everyone – it’s car-sex adultery on the street!

A magazine reported the fact that a male and female newscaster with an evening program called ‘Marugoto Yamanashi’ had car-sex adultery on the street. However, NHK is still covering up this incident. It happened three years ago.

The male presenter still works with NHK, but it seems that the female presenter was fired. If this isn’t sexual harassment and power harassment, then I don’t know what is.

NHK has not yet explained this scandal to viewers, and on the day after the incident was revealed, the two hosts who had car-sex adultery on the road were replaced by newscasters who were thought not to engage in car-sex adultery on the street.

The reason for replacing the hosts was never explained to the viewers. Well, I wonder, how dare they not explain such a serious incident to the viewers, as if nothing happened?

Adultery!

On the street!

Car-sex!

Are we going to allow this?

One more time:

Adultery!

On the street!

Car-sex!

I’ll say it again: It’s car-sex adultery on the street!

Anyway, crush the car-sex-adultery-on-the-street-concealing NHK.”

The article ends with

Perhaps they (NHK) should assemble the Protect NHK from the Protect the Nation from NHK Party Party and then give themselves airtime on their own channel to rebut all these claims – not only because it’d be hilarious, but because it’s their democratic right to do so.

What is also would be funny is if PNHK building momentum actually allows them to win 1 PR seat.  Then NHK will have to report on this election night and NHK would be obligated to interview PNHK leader 立花孝志(Takashi Tachibana)  on his thoughts on PNHK's election success who I am sure will then go on another anti-NHK rant.

[jaichind]

JX poll on 東京(Tokyo) 6- member district

They just have the ranking and did not disclose any vote share info

1 LDP
2 JCP
3 KP
4 LDP
5 CDP
6 CDP
7 JRP

Thist mostly matches other media polls although a few does have JRP ahead of CDP for the 6th and last seat.  Most likely CDP pulls this out.  What is key is that the various other center-left candidates DPP RS SDP and Olive does not eat into the CDP vote that much.

On the Right the main danger is an ex-MP from the 1980s and 1990s with an LDP background that led an anti-tax moment is also running (at age 87) could also pull in some JRP votes.

[jaichind]

朝日(Asahi) poll on in certain prefecture on "Is the economy better or worse"

Rural 1-member districts clearly have a more negative view of the economic situation than urban 東京(Tokyo) and 大阪(Osaka)

[jaichind]

Final 共同(Kyodo) projections.  Shift away from LDP in a clear sign of herding

          District    PR      Total
LDP         42      19        61
KP            6        7        13
JRP          3         5          8
DPP          3         3         6
CDP        11       10       21
RS            0         1        1
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        5                   5  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)


Which would produce

LDP+           74
Center Left   34
Third Pole      8
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          145
Center Left   71
Third Pole     15
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 34.69% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc will barely able to block  constitutional revision.

共同(Kyodo) projections

          District    PR      Total
LDP         44      21        65
KP            7        7        14
JRP          4         5          9
DPP          2         3         5
CDP        11         9       20
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        2                   2  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)



Which would produce

LDP+           79
Center Left   28
Third Pole      9
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          150
Center Left   65
Third Pole     16
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 32.24% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision barely misses being able to block  constitutional revision.

Back in 2016 共同(Kyodo)'s first cut projection was

                District        PR           Total
LDP              38           21            59
KP                 6             7             13
ORA               2             3              5
DP                18           10           28
PLP                0            0               0
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 3            6              9
Pro-DP Ind     6            0               6

The final result was

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              36           19            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                21           11            32
PLP                0             1              1
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 1            5              6
Pro-DP Ind     5             0              5

So again just like 2016 共同(Kyodo) which is anti-LDP has an even greater pro-LDP bias in its projections relative to anti-LDP 朝日( Asahi) which itself have a smaller pro-LDP bias.

[jaichind]

Same 朝日(Asahi) PR vote poll broken out by age

LDP strongest in the 18-40 age group.  JRP strongest in the 20-30 age group while CDP and JCP strongest in the 60+ age groups

朝日(Asahi) poll on PR (change from June poll)

Overall
LDP  35(-5)
KP     6
JRP    6
DPP   2(+1)
CDP 12(-1)
RS     1
SDP   2
JCP    6(+1)

Among independents
LDP 16
KP    4
JRP   6
DPP  2
CDP 12
RS    2
SDP  3
JCP   3

Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval 42(-3)/34(+1)



There were talk that a RS surge will most likely drive SDP below the threshold to get seats.  This poll seems to say otherwise.  JCP support seems to be holding up well.  Independents seems to lean CDP and JRP.

2016 朝日(Asahi) poll on PR 1 week before the election

LDP   35  (-3)
KP       7  (--)
PJK      1
ORA     7 (+3)
DP     16 (+1)
PLP      1
SDP     1
JCP      6  (--)

Which makes 2016 poll almost identical with 2019 if you add CDP and DPP vote share together.

[jaichind]

At this stage all the media polls have converged toward the pro-Constitutional revision bloc (LDP KP JRP) missing the 2/3 majority by 3-8 seats.  If so then this is a victory of ex-Emperor Akihito over PM Abe.

After the 2016 Upper House elections despite under-performing a bit the pro- Constitutional revision bloc (LDP KP and JRP plus some pro-revision independents)  did well enough to capture a 2/3 majority in the Upper House.  At this stage Emperor Akihito whose anti-Constitutional revision is implicitly clear decided to throw a spammer in the works.  Right after the 2016 Upper House elections  Emperor Akihito indicated his desire to abdicate.  Part of the reason besides his age was that he did not want to be around as Emperor if Abe goes through with Constitutional revision.  But part of his strategy, it seems, is to make the observation that the  pro- Constitutional revision 2/3 majority was based on the 2013 LDP-KP landslide plus JRP YP doing reasonably well.  If the 2016 Upper House election result was replicated in 2019 then the pro- Constitutional revision bloc 2/3 majority goes away.  So Emperor Akihito indicated that he wanted to abdicate on public TV putting pressure on PM Abe to use up political time and capital to draft laws to allow this to take place.  This was a delaying tactic to run down the clock until the 2019 Upper House elections which it seems to have worked.   We will find out Sunday.

[jaichind]

産経(Sankei) weekend  magazine Zakzak  which had a fairly anti-LDP projection a month ago to sell magazines now, as expected, herds with the rest of the media projections

          District    PR      Total
LDP         41      19        60
KP            7        7        14
JRP          3         5          8
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        10       10       20
RS            0         1        1
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         5        9
OPPN        6                   6  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Which would produce

LDP+           74
Center Left   33
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          145
Center Left   70
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 34.69% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc will barely able to block  constitutional revision.

Sankei Shimbun magazine Zakzak came out with their current projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         37      18        55
KP            7        7        14
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          2         3         5
CDP        13       12       25
RS            1         1        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           2         4        6
OPPN        9                   9  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)



Which would produce

LDP+           69
Center Left   42
Third Pole      7
JCP               6

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          140
Center Left   79
Third Pole     14
JCP              12

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.14% of the seats.

By reverse engineering this projection the seats that this project calls that are at odds with CW are

1) CDP wins 青森(Aomori) over LDP when CW has this as very likely LDP
2) CDP wins 宮城(Miyagi) and OPPN wins 滋賀(Shiga) when CW has both of them lean LDP
3)  OPPN wins 愛媛(Ehime) when CW has it as tossup but slight lean LDP
4) CDP wins third seat in 兵庫(Hyōgo) over JRP when CW has as lean JRP for the third and last spot.  I happen to agree with this projection on this one.

Overall this projection as a somewhat anti-LDP lean.  But that is normal from a pro-LDP media outfit like Sankei Shimbun.  Most Japanese media projections tend to overcompensate for their house effect.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri chart on the "Year of the Boar" effect where turnout (black line) is lower (due to LDP cadres not having energy and resources mobilize LDP turnout right after the Unified Local Elections) and LDP seat share (pink) is also lower.  To be fair this is mostly a 1995 and 2007 phenomenon as 1971 and 1983 were only slight setbacks for LDP.

One historical lesson here is lower turnout this Sunday might not hurt the Center-Left parties as much as lower turnout might also be lower LDP turnout.

NHK polling in the run up to the Upper House elections indicates that turnout will be low.  The number of polled that said they had "Great Interest" (20%) and "Likely to Vote" (55%) has dropped to record low levels.

This should be good for KP and JCP and to some extent LDP and bad the the Center-Left parties


Most likely as a result the LDP will avoid the "Year of the Boar" (亥年) effect.  Every Upper House election held in the Year or the Dog has seen big LDP setback (2007 1995) or minor ones (1983 1971).  The idea is the in the Year of the Dog the Unified Local Election are held in April in the same year as the Upper House elections held in July.  The LDP cadre local machines which mobilized for the Unified Local Elections are too tried to mobilize again especially for the Upper House which historically has been seen as less important than prefecture elections (where all the pork is dolled out) and the Lower House elections.

This time around most likely LDP will perform around the same as 2016 or even slightly better which is pretty good given the historical trend.

[jaichind]

In 6 member Tokyo district, CDP should be able to win 2 out of 6 (it should be LDP 2 CDP 2 KP 1 JCP 1) as long as the Center-Left vote is concentrated and evenly distributed between the 2 CDP candidate.  The CDP plan which it s communicating is that Center-Left voters in Eastern Tokyo vote for 1 of the CDP candidate while the Western Tokyo Center-Left voters should vote for the other CDP candidate.



In other multi-member districts the LDP must be doing something similar but LDP usually do it not by geography but around key clientelist organisations where different LDP factions focus on different LDP candidates where there is more than 1 LDP candidate.   

[jaichind]

Chart of projections of some key media outlets

This chart maps the various OPPN winners to the likely party they will caucus with (CDP or DPP)

 
                          LDP  KP  Ruling bloc  CDP  DPP  JCP  JRP  SDP  RS
朝日((Asahi)          59   14      73           21     5     9     8      1     1
毎日((Mainichi)      56   14      70           15   15      6    6       1    1
読売 (Yomiuri)       58    13      71          29     5      8    9      1     1
産経((Sankei)        59    13     72           24     5      8    7       1    1
日経((Nikkei)         61    12     73           19     5      9    7      1     1
松田(Zakzak)         55    14     69           22    5      9     8      1     1
文春(Bunshun)      59     14     73           21    5      9     7      1     1



There seems to be some sort of mapping mistake by 毎日((Mainichi) on how the OPPN winners will align.

文春(Bunshun) which is a magazine is the most right wing of the media outlets have, as usual, the most anti-LDP projection.

Note that missing on the list would be 共同(Kyodo) and  時事(Jiji)

[jaichind]

Final NHK poll before the election has Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval at 45/33

Party support is

LDP 34.2
KP    4.3
JRP   3.1
DPP  1.5
CDP  6.0
SDP  0.5
JCP   3.2


This gives us the Aoki index [Approval Rating of the Cabinet + Support for the ruling Party] of 79.2 which historically has been on the boundary of a minor ruling bloc win to a significant ruling bloc win.

Using NHK numbers the history of  Aoki index are

-----------------------

Late June 2000 - General election - Aoki index (Average June and July numbers) at 50.5 - LDP-KP barely won over a divide opposition (JCP LP and DPJ).  Any sort of opposition coordination and LDP-KP should have been beaten

April 2001 - Aoki Index at 28.4 - LDP PM Mori forced out of leadership of LDP and out of office

Late July 2001 - Upper House election - Aoki Index (Average of July and August numbers) at 108.2 - massive Koizumi LDP-KP-NCP landslide.  From a vote share point of view greatest landslide in modern Japanese election history

Nov 2003 - General election - Aoki Index at 88.6 - Solid LDP-KP win which is somewhat blunted by the a united DPJ since LP merged into DPJ before the election

July 2004 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 76.1 - LDP-KP barely won and was seen as a setback for Koizumi

Sep 2005 - General election - Aoki Index at 100.4 - LDP-KP Koizumi landslide despite creation of several LDP splinter parties

July 2007 - Upper House election - Aoki Index at 69.8 - LDP-KP defeat at the hands of DPJ led opposition mostly due to opposition unity against LDP.  

Sept 2007 - Aoki index at 61.4 - Abe forced out of office as LDP President and with that the PM as well.

May 2008 - Aoki index at 46.6 - Fukuda forced out of office as LDP President and with that the PM as well

Late Aug 2009 - General election -  Aoki Index (Average of August and Sept  numbers) at 43.8 - LDP-KP landslide defeat by DPJ led opposition alliance

May 2010 - Aoki index at 41.8 - Hatoyama forced out of office as DPJ President and with that PM as well

July 2010 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 68.8 - DPJ defeated by LDP-KP mostly due to inability of DPJ to lock on allies like SDP or YP or even KP.  

August 2011 - Aoki index at 34.4 - Kan forced out of office as DPJ President and with that PM as well

Dec 2012 - General election - Aoki index at 36.1 - DPJ destroyed by LDP-KP in a landslide defeat.  JRP and YP added to the damage by splitting the anti-LDP vote

July 2013 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 99.5 - LDP-KP landslide victory as JRP and YP loses vote share to LDP-KP

Dec 2014 - General election - Aoki index at 85.1 - LDP-KP landslide victory despite DPJ-JIP tactical alliances

Aug 2015 - Aoki index at 71.7 - Abe's low point so far due to new Security Law.  LDP held firm and Abe bounced back.

July 2016 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 88.3 - significant LDP-KP victory whose scale was somewhat blunted by DP-JCP alliances in 1- member districts

July 2017 - Aoki index at 65.7 - A series of scandals, gaffs and debacle in the Tokyo Prefecture election drives Abe into the worst crisis since his 2012 comeback.  

Oct 2017 - Aoki Index at 68.2 - A divided opposition hands the LDP-KP a significant victory but still losing some ground relative to 2014

History of Aoki Index 2000-2017


-----------------

Aoki Index  at 79.2 has LDP-KP stronger than in 2017 but weaker than in 2016.  A even more divided opposition in 2019 relative to 2016 most likely means a replication of 2016 Upper House elections result in 2019 even with  Aoki Index weaker in 2019 than 2016.   The 2019  Aoki Index is similar to 2004's  Aoki Index  of 75.1 where DPJ fought LDP-KP to a draw.  But 2004 the non-JCP Opposition was pretty much totally occupied by DPJ.  Today's picture is a more cluttered.  

[jaichind]

Links to different coverage Sunday night (Japan)

NHK　https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/sangiin/2019/
NTV　http://www.ntv.co.jp/election2019/
Asahi https://www.tv-asahi.co.jp/senkyo/
TBS   http://www.tbs.co.jp/senkyo2019/
TX     https://www.tv-tokyo.co.jp/ikegamisenkyo/
Sankei https://www.fnn.jp/senkyo/

NHK exit polls will come out at 7am EST Sunday
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

[jaichind]

Magazine Nikkan Gendai which always has the most the most anti-LDP of projections came out with their final projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         36      18        54
KP            7        6        13
JRP          4         4          8
DPP          4         3         7
CDP        10       12       22
RS            0         2        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           5         4        9
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

JCP at 5 district seats while JRP has 4 district seats would imply that JRP captures the 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) but JCP wins the 3rd seat of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP.  The 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) is viewed as a tossup between JCP and JRP but JCP winning the 3rd seats of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP would be a upset.  DPP at 4 district seats means that they will pull off an upset over LDP in 佐賀(Saga).  Of course RS at 2 PR seats is also a shocking RS surge.



Which would produce

LDP+           67
Center Left   40
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          138
Center Left   77
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.55% of the seats and easily blocking Constitutional version.

[jaichind]

2016 Nikkan Gendai projection was

Final 日刊ゲンダイ (Nikkan Gendai) projection.  

Nikkan Gendai has, in this cycle, heen the most negative on LDP.  Now even it has abandoned me in projecting a fairly large LDP PR vote, mostly partly based on a collapse of the ORA vote.  At this stage I am pretty much alone in projecting a LDP-KP PR vote share that is not close to 50%



1- seats LDP-opposition 23-9

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 36.0%                38                     56
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 3                    6.0%                  1                       4
DP                 11                  22.0%               22                     33
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    2.0%                 0                       1
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 2                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)

This means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 158, 4 less than 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 164 which is 2 more than the 2/3 majority.

The final result in 2016 was

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              36           19            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                21           11            32
PLP                0             1              1
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 1            5              6
Pro-DP Ind     5             0              5

So in 2016 they actually were the only media outlet that got the PLP result of getting 1 PR seat correct and other than overestimating JCP were pretty accurate

[Cape Verde]

Magazine Nikkan Gendai which always has the most the most anti-LDP of projections came out with their final projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         36      18        54
KP            7        6        13
JRP          4         4          8
DPP          4         3         7
CDP        10       12       22
RS            0         2        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           5         4        9
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

JCP at 5 district seats while JRP has 4 district seats would imply that JRP captures the 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) but JCP wins the 3rd seat of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP.  The 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) is viewed as a tossup between JCP and JRP but JCP winning the 3rd seats of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP would be a upset.  DPP at 4 district seats means that they will pull off an upset over LDP in 佐賀(Saga).  Of course RS at 2 PR seats is also a shocking RS surge.



Which would produce

LDP+           67
Center Left   40
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          138
Center Left   77
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.55% of the seats and easily blocking Constitutional version.

Or JCP can win in Kyoto or Osaka (incumbency advantage). Every pundit seems to believe that JCP will win at least 2 district seats, Tokyo and Saitama. I think Kanagawa is a toss-up while a 3rd seat in Chiba or Hokkaido is beyond reach.

As stated earlier, the worst scenario for Japanese left is both RS and SDP getting around 1.5%, therefore failing to win a PR seat. Meanwhile Yamamoto Taro placed two other PR candidates on top of the PR list. This is a bold move since RS party needs to win at least 5~6% of the PR vote to elect 3 PR seats.

[jaichind]

As of 7/19, early voting was 13.30% of the VAP.  At this stage in 2016 early voting rate was 12.43%.  In 2016 the final early voting rate was 15.00% and in 2017 early voting surged due to the incoming storm reached 20.01%.  Most likely early voting will be in the 15%-16% range.  It seems overall turnout in 2019 will be similar to 2016 which would be slightly higher than one would expect given level of interest.

[jaichind]

Magazine Nikkan Gendai which always has the most the most anti-LDP of projections came out with their final projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         36      18        54
KP            7        6        13
JRP          4         4          8
DPP          4         3         7
CDP        10       12       22
RS            0         2        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           5         4        9
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

JCP at 5 district seats while JRP has 4 district seats would imply that JRP captures the 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) but JCP wins the 3rd seat of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP.  The 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) is viewed as a tossup between JCP and JRP but JCP winning the 3rd seats of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP would be a upset.  DPP at 4 district seats means that they will pull off an upset over LDP in 佐賀(Saga).  Of course RS at 2 PR seats is also a shocking RS surge.



Which would produce

LDP+           67
Center Left   40
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          138
Center Left   77
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.55% of the seats and easily blocking Constitutional version.

Or JCP can win in Kyoto or Osaka (incumbency advantage). Every pundit seems to believe that JCP will win at least 2 district seats, Tokyo and Saitama. I think Kanagawa is a toss-up while a 3rd seat in Chiba or Hokkaido is beyond reach.

As stated earlier, the worst scenario for Japanese left is both RS and SDP getting around 1.5%, therefore failing to win a PR seat. Meanwhile Yamamoto Taro placed two other PR candidates on top of the PR list. This is a bold move since RS party needs to win at least 5~6% of the PR vote to elect 3 PR seats.

For JCP to win 5 seats we look at JCP prospects
1) 東京(Tokyo) - for sure
2) 埼玉(Saitama) - for sure
3) 京都(Kyoto) - very likely (I happen to disagree but I agree this is CW)
4) 神奈川(Kanagawa) - tossup with JRP
5) 千葉(Chiba) - long shot
6) 北海道(Hokkaido) - long shot
7) 大阪(Osaka) - long short

For JRP to win 4 seats we look at JRP prospects
1) 大阪(Osaka) - for sure
2) 大阪(Osaka) - very likely
3) 兵庫(Hyōgo) - likely
4) 神奈川(Kanagawa) - tossup with JCP
5) 東京(Tokyo) - less likely put a bit better than long shot

Assuming JRP does not win 東京(Tokyo) then for JRP to be at 4 seats then JRP has to win 神奈川(Kanagawa) which means that if JCP wins 5 seats then they must have won 千葉(Chiba) and 北海道(Hokkaido).  The reason why 大阪(Osaka) is not a likely win based on these projections are JRP has 4 seats which means they most likely won both 大阪(Osaka) seats.  KP has 7 seats which means KP wins an 大阪(Osaka) seat.  That leaves LDP for JCP to take an 大阪(Osaka) seat from which seems very unlikely.  What is different about 大阪(Osaka) and  千葉(Chiba)/北海道(Hokkaido) is that in 大阪(Osaka) LDP nominated 1 candidate and is looking to win just 1.  In 千葉(Chiba)/北海道(Hokkaido) LDP is trying to win 2 out 3 seats.  There is risk of LDP vote not being evenly distributed as well as KP PR voter defection which gives JCP a chance to sneak in.

At a high level what is frustrating about some of these media projections is that they do no disclose district level projections leaving me to triangulate the results.

Another alternative interpretation of JCP 5 JRP 4 projection would be
JRP wins   大阪(Osaka)  大阪(Osaka)  兵庫(Hyōgo) 東京(Tokyo)
JCP wins 東京(Tokyo) 埼玉(Saitama)  京都(Kyoto)  神奈川(Kanagawa) and 1 out of ( 千葉(Chiba) and 北海道(Hokkaido))

[Foucaulf]

Not sure if this was linked yet, but (left-leaning) twitter analyst @miraisyakai published their ratings of all the prefectural seats. In reality there are two types of prefectural seats: the multi-member seats where the opposition can usually get a seat, and the single-member seats in smaller prefectures where they get wiped out. Note that I used "smaller:" there is serious variance in the population of single-member seats, from 2.3M in Miyagi to 790K in Fukui.

Let's look at the single-member seats first. Abe's LDP swept these when the seats were last up in 2013, getting 29/31. Redistricting meant there are now 32 instead of 31:

https://twitter.com/miraisyakai/status/1152408064684744704

This graph aggregates seat projections from the national newspapers, plus projections from local papers, into a rating on the far left. The "safe/lean" seats would be Okinawa, Nagano and Ehime.

The "tilt/toss-up" seats are Akita, Yamagata, Niigata, Miyagi, Shiga and Iwate. In this setup, the next closest seat (Aomori) looks like a "tilt LDP" rating. So anywhere from 4-9 seats are possible, and those are the seats to watch.

With the multi-member districts, the most interesting ones are those with an odd number of candidates, since inefficient vote-splitting between a camp's candidates can squeeze one of them out for the last seat. There are the LDP/JCP duels for the third seat in Hokkaido and Chiba (the Hokkaido one not being too likely), and a battle between CDP and KP for third in Hyōgo. JCP is also looking for the fourth seat in Osaka versus KP.

JRP/Ishin no Kai may or may not get the last seat in Kanagawa and Tokyo, squeezing out JCP/CDP candidates respectively. There's also 2-member seat Hiroshima, a stalwart right-wing prefecture but will face vote-splitting from two LDP candidates versus an opposition independent. Kyoto also has a face-off between the JCP and CDP candidates.

[jaichind]

Not sure if this was linked yet, but (left-leaning) twitter analyst @miraisyakai published their ratings of all the prefectural seats. In reality there are two types of prefectural seats: the multi-member seats where the opposition can usually get a seat, and the single-member seats in smaller prefectures where they get wiped out. Note that I used "smaller:" there is serious variance in the population of single-member seats, from 2.3M in Miyagi to 790K in Fukui.

Let's look at the single-member seats first. Abe's LDP swept these when the seats were last up in 2013, getting 29/31. Redistricting meant there are now 32 instead of 31:

https://twitter.com/miraisyakai/status/1152408064684744704

This graph aggregates seat projections from the national newspapers, plus projections from local papers, into a rating on the far left. The "safe/lean" seats would be Okinawa, Nagano and Ehime.

The "tilt/toss-up" seats are Akita, Yamagata, Niigata, Miyagi, Shiga and Iwate. In this setup, the next closest seat (Aomori) looks like a "tilt LDP" rating. So anywhere from 4-9 seats are possible, and those are the seats to watch.

With the multi-member districts, the most interesting ones are those with an odd number of candidates, since inefficient vote-splitting between a camp's candidates can squeeze one of them out for the last seat. There are the LDP/JCP duels for the third seat in Hokkaido and Chiba (the Hokkaido one not being too likely), and a battle between CDP and KP for third in Hyōgo. JCP is also looking for the fourth seat in Osaka versus KP.

JRP/Ishin no Kai may or may not get the last seat in Kanagawa and Tokyo, squeezing out JCP/CDP candidates respectively. There's also 2-member seat Hiroshima, a stalwart right-wing prefecture but will face vote-splitting from two LDP candidates versus an opposition independent. Kyoto also has a face-off between the JCP and CDP candidates.

I read and several other bloggers often. 

At this stage tossups are:

神奈川(Kanagawa) - tossup between JRP and JCP for the 4th and last seat
兵庫(Hyōgo) - 3 way tied between JRP KP and CDP for the 2nd and 3rd seat.  CW gives JRP and then KP a slight edge over CDP
広島(Hiroshima) - CW has it as tossup between LDP winning both seats for an OPPN candidate winning one of the two seats


Districts where there is a clear lean but an upset is still very possible:

岩手(Iwate) - CW has OPPN with the edge but it could go LDP
東京(Tokyo) - CW has second CDP candidate ahead of JRP for 6th and last seat but it could go JRP
滋賀(Shiga) - CW has OPPN with the edge but it could go LDP


Districts where there is a clear likely result but there might be a chance for upset

北海道(Hokkaido) - JCP has a small chance of winning 3rd seat from LDP
宮城(Miyagi) - LDP has a small chance of beating CDP out of a likely win
千葉(Chiba) - JCP has a small chance of winning 3rd seat from LDP
愛知(Aichi) - JCP has a tiny chance of winning 4th seat from KP
三重(Mie) - OPPN has a small chance of beating LDP out of a likely win
京都(Kyoto) - CDP has a small chance of beating out JCP for 2nd seat
大分(Ōita) - OPPN has a tiny chance of beating LDP out of a likely win.

Again, the most fun should be the 3 way tied for 2nd and 3rd place in 兵庫(Hyōgo).

[jaichind]

Polls just opened across Japan which is 7AM.  Voting will end 8PM when exit polls comes out.

[jaichind]

So far turnout seems to be around 1%-2% behind 2016 levels.  Early voting is higher so turnout might be equal to 2016 but most likely lower.  So that is good news for LDP KP JCP and bad news for CDP. 

On the other hand in Western Japan there is heavy rain.  This is where LDP and KP are strong so LDP and KP might lose some ground on the PR vote due to the heavy rain in areas of their strength.  DPP is relatively stronger in Western Japan when compared to CDP so they are net losers as well because of the rain.

[jaichind]

As of 4PM total turnout looks like

                        2016            2019
10am                7.92             5.65
11am              13.22             9.70
2pm                22.54           18.02
4pm                27.25           22.72
Early vote        15.05           16.01
Final turnout    54.69

Looks like final turnout should be around 51%.  Mostly good news for KP JCP LDP  and perhaps SDP and JRP.  For sure hurts CDP

[jaichind]

Final prediction with turnout likely to be around 51%

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP LDP (JCP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP (competitive)                                 
岩手   Iwate               1             OPPN (competitive) 
宮城   Miyagi               1            CDP  (competitive)     
秋田   Akita                1             OPPN (competitive)                                 
山形   Yamagata         1             OPPN (competitive)                       
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP (competitive)                     
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP CDP (JCP)                           
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                           
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                 
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP CDP KP JCP (JRP)                     
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP CDP LDP (JCP)                   
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP CDP KP JRP (JCP)           
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP     
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP JCP KP LDP CDP CDP (JRP)   
新潟   Niigata             1            OPPN (competitive)             
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                 
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                 
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                 
長野   Nagano             1             DPP                             
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                 
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPP  (CDP)                         
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP DPP CDP KP (JCP)               
三重   Mie                   1             LDP (competitive)                               
滋賀   Shiga                1             OPPN  (competitive) 
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (JCP)   
大阪   Osaka               4             JRP LDP KP JRP (CDP)           
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP JRP KP (CDP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                 
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                 
鳥取 Tottori                 
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                 
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP           
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP LDP (OPPN)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                 
徳島   Tokushima   
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                 
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                 
愛媛   Ehime              1             OPPN (competitive)                                   
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP CDP (JCP)                     
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                 
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                 
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                 
大分   Ōita                  1            LDP (competitive)             
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                 
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                 
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN     
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9
                                                           
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                19                    35.5%               40                     59
KP                   7                     13.4%                7                     14
JRP                  5                     10.1%                4                       9
HRP                 0                      0.5%                0                       0
PNHK               0                      1.5%                0                       0
Euthanasia       0                      0.3%                0                       0
DPP                  2                     4.8%                3                       5
CDP                10                   18.9%               11                    21
SDP                 1                       2.1%               0                       1
RS                   1                      2.3%                0                       1
LAB                 0                       0.2%               0                        0
Olive               0                       0.5%               0                        0
JCP                 5                       9.9%               2                        7
OPPN                                                              9                       9

Which would give us by bloc (124 total seats)

LDP-KP          73
Center-Left    35
Third Pole       9
JCP                7

The 2016 class is now (121 total seats)

LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third Pole        7
JCP                 6

Which combines to gives us after the 2019 elections

LDP-KP        144
Center-Left    72
Third Pole      16
JCP               13

The Center-Left + JCP would form 34.69% of the 245 member chamber which would barely be enough to block a Constitutional revision. 

The main controversial part of my prediction is I am sticking to CDP beating JCP for the second seat in 京都(Kyoto) despite pattern of lower turnout which should favor JCP based on KP JRP and LDP tactical voting for CDP to beat JCP.