2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

A post from me in 2016 about the nature of the KP PR vote.

A look at the way KP PR vote is distributed gives you an idea of the organizational power of KP.  Just to set the stage, it is useful to give a reminder of how the Upper House PR vote works.  A voter could vote for a party or by writing in the name of the candidate (or even writing in the name of the party.)  All of them will accrue to the party which will determine how many seats a party will get.  But which members of a party are elected are based on how many personal votes a candidate on the party list receives.

Now let's take a look at KP:  
1) 7,572,961 accrued to KP which was good for 13.52%

Of which

2) 3,881,290 votes were cast for KP as a party
3) 3,691,671 votes were cast for a candidate of the KP party list

What is interesting is to look at the vote distribution of the votes cast for a party candidate.  Ranked in order of number of votes they are:

942,266
612,066
606,889
605,225
478,175
388,474
  18,571
    7,489
    5,878
    5,666
    4,334
    3,497
    3,377
    3,227
    2,560
    2,444
    1,533

Note that after the 6th candidate the vote completely drops off to close to zero right away.  It is clear what is going on here. When KP was forming its election strategy months ago, they came up with a target number of seats they want to target to win on the PR section.  It was 6.  Then the orders went out to each township in Japan giving orders to each voter that is directly controlled by the KP machine on which exact candidate each person will vote for with a goal that all the votes are targeted should be for one of the 6 candidates.  

About half of the KP votes (around 3.7 million) were cast this way which are usually those who are very active in the  Soka Gakkai.  About the other half (another 3.9 million) are cast by friends and familiy of these hardcare Soka Gakkai members or just some floating voters that might agree with the KP agenda.  

The purpose of doing this is for KP to show its power to the LDP.  The message is: We control down the each voter at least 3.7 million such votes.  They can then influence their friends and family.  Do not cross us. You need us to win.

It is not clear if KP target is 6 or 7 seats but it seems 7 is most likely.  Only 6 of the likely 7 has been targeted in terms of candidate name and will look like this


Every KP voter will be told which KP candidate to vote for based on the prefecture they belong to. Who the Greater Tokyo KP PR voters will vote for does not seem clear yet.

[jaichind]

Now that some media projections came out I took my view of where their biases are to update my projection.  Brackets in multi-member districts are the runner up

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP LDP (JCP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP (competitive)                                
岩手   Iwate               1             OPPN (competitive)  
宮城   Miyagi               1            CDP  (competitive)    
秋田   Akita                1             OPPN (competitive)                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             OPPN (competitive)                      
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP (competitive)                      
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP CDP (JCP)                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                            
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP CDP KP JCP (DPP)                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP CDP LDP (JCP)                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP CDP KP JCP (JRP)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP      
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP KP JCP CDP LDP CDP (JRP)    
新潟   Niigata             1            OPPN (competitive)            
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DPP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPP  (CDP)                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP CDP DPP KP (JCP)                
三重   Mie                   1             OPPN (competitive)                                
滋賀   Shiga                1             OPPN  (competitive)  
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (JCP)    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP JRP KP JRP (CDP)            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP JRP KP (CDP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP OPPN (LDP)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             OPPN (competitive)                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP CDP (JCP)                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1            LDP (competitive)            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN    
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10
                                                            
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                18                    35.4%               38                     56
KP                   7                     13.1%                7                     14
JRP                  5                      9.7%                3                       6
HRP                 0                      0.5%                0                       0
PNHK               0                      1.3%                0                       0
Euthanasia       0                      0.4%                0                       0
DPP                  3                      5.6%                3                      6
CDP                11                    21.4%              11                    22
SDP                 1                       1.9%               0                       1
RS                   1                      1.9%                0                       1
LAB                 0                       0.2%               0                        0
Olive               0                       0.5%               0                        0
JCP                  4                      8.1%               3                        7
OPPN                                                              9                       9

Which would give us by bloc (124 total seats)

LDP-KP          70
Center-Left    39
Third Pole       8
JCP                7

The 2016 class is now (121 total seats)

LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third Pole        7
JCP                 6

Which combines to gives us after the 2019 elections

LDP-KP        141
Center-Left    76
Third Pole      15
JCP               13

The Center-Left + JCP would form 36.33% of the 245 member chamber which would be able to block a Constitutional revision.  

Overall I suspect I might be overestimating DPP PR vote a bit at the expense of either JCP or LDP.  I might end up making that adjustment later on as more data comes in.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri PR poll (diff from a week ago)

LDP  36 (-4)
KP      6(+1)
JRP    7(+1)
DPP   3(+1)
CDP  10(--)
RS     ??
SDP    1(-1)
JCP     4(--)

LDP loses some ground to JRP but overall not much change.

Same poll broken down by age.  LDP-KP stronger in the 18-39 and 70+ age range and weaker in the 40-69 age range.


Same poll but with history

[jaichind]

Chart of the 32 1- member district assessments by 毎日(Mainichi),朝日( Asahi), and 共同(Kyodo)

毎日(Mainichi) has it at 24-8, 朝日( Asahi) has it at 26-6, and 共同(Kyodo) has it at 28-4.  Note that all 3 are anti-LDP media houses are are more likely to have more pro-LDP projections to overcome their reprieved house effect lower expectations. 



There are 9 seats on this list that one of the media houses has given the opposition the edge.  They are, in order of likelihood of opposition victory by looking at the 3 projections

愛媛(Ehime)
沖縄(Okinawa)
長野(Nagano)
秋田(Akita)
宮城(Miyagi)
山形(Yamagata)
滋賀(Shiga)
新潟(Niigata)
三重(Mie)

And all 3 has a couple where the opposition are still in the running
岩手(Iwate)
青森(Aomori)
大分(Ōita)

Main surprise there is how far out of the running the opposition is in 福島(Fukushima) and to some extent 山梨(Yamanashi) and how close the opposition is in 香川(Kagawa).

[jaichind]

TBS poll on PR

LDP   33.7(-7.3)
KP      4.7(+1.5)
JRP     3.9(+1.7)
DPP    0.9(-0.2)
CDP    8.6(+1.6)
SDP    0.6(+0.3)
JCP    2.8(-0.8 )


Back in July 2016 it was

LDP   32(-4)
KP      6(+2)
ORA    4(+2)
DP     11(--)
PLP     1(+1)
SDP    1(--)
JCP     7(+1)

Which seems to have all the blocs around the same other than JCP which is now weaker than in 2016.

[jaichind]

産経(Sankei) projection

As I predicted, the pro-LDP 産経(Sankei) came out with a more anti-LDP projection, especially on the 1- member districts

          District    PR      Total
LDP         39      20        59
KP            6        7        13
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        11       13       24
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         0        0
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)



Which would produce

LDP+           72
Center Left   37
Third Pole      7
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          143
Center Left   74
Third Pole     14
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 35.92% of the seats which is enough bloc constitutional revision

[jaichind]

産経(Sankei) projection from 2016 vs final result

        Proj   Result
LDP    59       55
KP      12      14
ORA     7        7
DP     28       32
PLP      0        1
SDP     1        1
JCP     10       6
OPPN   4        5

[jaichind]

産経(Sankei) assessment of 1- member districts

Opposition well ahead:
岩手(Iwate) - not a surprise but at odds with other media outlets
秋田(Akita) - big surprise but mostly consistent with other media outlets
新潟(Niigata) - not a surprise  
長野(Nagano) - expected
愛媛(Ehime) - not totally unexpected given recent buzz still somewhat of a shock
沖縄(Okinawa)

Opposition slightly ahead

山形(Yamagata) - not a surprise
宮城(Miyagi) - not a surprise
滋賀(Shiga) - not a surprise
大分(Ōita) - not a surprise but at odds with other media outfits

Tossup
青森(Aomori) - a surprise but consistent with other media outfits
福島(Fukushima) - not a surprise but other media outfits has LDP surprisingly winning with ease
長崎(Nagasaki) - total shock

Rest lean LDP or easy LDP win

Another surprise is that 三重(Mie) did not make the list. 三重(Mie) should really lean opposition given the partisan lean of the prefecture.  Main issue there is the local center-left party is very aligned with Rengo and is hostile to JCP.  But somehow the joint opposition candidate has to marry these two hostile blocks.  This as achieved in 2016  but perhaps it is not working out this time.

So for the 32 1- member by media outfit are (LDP vs Opposition):

産経(Sankei)      22-10
毎日(Mainichi)    24-8
朝日( Asahi)       26-6
共同(Kyodo)       28-4

My current projection is 22-10

The more anti-LDP the media outfit the more pro-LDP projection.  Also note all these projections are from the same raw polling data which means there were a lot of unique "un-skewing" of the raw poll data to get these projections.

[jaichind]

If seems that RS has placed  山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) behind 2 other "specific quota" RS PR candidates.  As mentioned before allowing "specific quota" is part of a change in election for starting this election where a party can place certain PR candidates at the top making the open list PR not pure open list.  The change was done by LDP to make sure 徳島(Tokushima) and 島根(Shimane)  have someone from their prefectures get elected on the PR list.  RS is using the rule to place 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  on the list.  It is a trick to push up the RS PR vote.  It is pretty much saying to the pro-山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) youth, you have to vote RS on the PR list (as opposed to CDP or JCP) since if you want 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) to be elected RS has to be above around 5.6% of the vote (to win 3 seats).  For RS to get above 5.6% of the vote will be a tall order.  I do admire 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) placing himself a such a risk to push up the RS PR vote.

[jaichind]

大阪(Osaka) radio station MBS poll on 大阪(Osaka) (4- member) district

The do not give poll numbers so you have to eyeball it but it seems to come out as

JRP  27
LDP  19
CDP 16
JRP  11
KP   11
JCP   6
DPP  4



Back in 2016 it was

LDP   20.4% elected
ORA  19.5% elected
KP     18.2% elected
ORA  18.0% elected
JCP   12.2%
DP      9.3%

It seems JRP is doing a bad job distributing its vote (I assume that this will get fixed over the next couple of weeks) while KP has dropped a lot (KP always gets it vote out.)  In the meantime JCP has collapsed and have hone over to CDP.  DPP candidate is weak (he is a Sri Lankan immigrant academic)  so DPP vote going to CDP is not a surprise.  So this poll shows CDP has a shot at winning but will require a JCP and DPP collapse.

[jaichind]

Based on these media projections one can map out how Center-Right and Center-Left voters should tactically vote in certain key prefectures:

                                   Right                              Left
北海道(Hokkaido)  Weaker LDP candidate              JCP
千葉(Chiba)          Weaker LDP candidate              JCP
神奈川(Kanagawa)          JRP                                JCP
東京(Tokyo)                   JRP                    Weaker CDP candidate
愛知(Aichi)                      KP                                JCP
大阪(Osaka)           Very unclear                        Unclear
                         (LDP or KP or                      (JCP or CDP)
                          Weaker JRP candidate)
兵庫(Hyōgo)              Unclear                             CDP
                            (KP or JRP)
広島(Hiroshima)   Weaker LDP candidate            OPPN

大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) are both unclear.

 In 大阪(Osaka) there are rumors that JRP surge has ate into the LDP vote and LDP could crash out of top 4.  But there are also surveys that say that KP support is dropping and going to JRP.  There are further surveys that say that JRP vote is not evenly split between its two candidates.   It is equally unclear on the Center-Left side with different surveys saying that JCP or CDP is closer to winning the 4ht seat.

In 兵庫(Hyōgo) it is clear on the Center-Left side that CDP is closer than JCP to winning the third seat.  On the Center-Right side there are conflicting reports on weather KP or JRP is in a stronger position. 

In both   大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) the center-right forces are looking to complete a 4-0 and 3-0 sweep like in 2016 and getting the vote distribution right is hard.

[jaichind]

The Japan-ROK trade dispute seems to be a possible October Surprise for Abe/LDP.  The triggering event is that a ROK court found that Japanese firms were liable for compensation for alleged forced labor in Korea during WWII.  Despite claims to the otherwise it is clear that Abe retaliated by blocking the export of key materials critical to the ROK tech industry. 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/majority-of-japanese-approve-of-tokyos-move-poll

The winner out of this besides Abe/LDP might be PRC where ROK tech industry might have to shift their production in response.  That is until perhaps Trump raises tariffs on PRC in the future. 

[jaichind]

Recently PNHK activists have been handing out

 

Which according to

https://soranews24.com/2017/12/18/nhk-repelling-stickers-free-for-anyone-wanting-to-keep-away-japans-public-tv-fee-collectors/

According to Tachibana, NHK collectors have been advised to not approach any home that has a sticker from his Protect the Nation from NHK Party because its inhabitants may be “problematic.” And so, if your house is identified as such, then the malevolent spirits of public access will simply pass over your home.

The sticker reads:

Protect the Nation from NHK Party – Takashi Tachibana
NHK Repelling Seal
Affix this sticker to the entrance of your home and NHK visits will completely stop. But in the case the visits continue please contact the number provided below and NHK will definitely be chased off.
Takashi Tachibana – 090-3350-0267

https://japantoday.com/category/national/nhk-fee-collector-leaving-threatening-notes-on-people%E2%80%99s-doorsteps

Also points out

Every country has its own way of generating money for their public broadcasters but in Japan, NHK is largely left to fend for themselves and have outsourced a team of bill collectors to do the dirty work for them.

On one hand, they largely get the job done. Recent estimates say over 80 percent of Japanese residents pay their monthly TV license fees – although this rate shot up after the Japanese Supreme Courts backed NHK’s right to demand money from virtually anyone, even if they don’t watch NHK.

On the other hand, in many instances the conduct of these collectors has been compared to that of an organized crime group. Homes have been vandalized, and sexual assaults have occurred. As a result, many people never answer their door out of fear that it’s an NHK collector on the other side.

[jaichind]

JNN/TBS projection which I had to reverse engineer

          District    PR      Total
LDP         41      19        60
KP            6        7        14
JRP          4         5          9
DPP          3         2         5
CDP          9       11       20
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           3         5        8
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Which would produce

LDP+           74
Center Left   33
Third Pole      9
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          145
Center Left   70
Third Pole     16
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 34.29% of the seats which is barely enough block constitutional revision

[jaichind]

産経(Sankei)  did release their raw data for PR.  I made a chart of their projected seat and implied PR vote

Party   Raw Data    Seat projection    implied PR vote
LDP       42.4%           20                      37.7%
KP          9.6%             7                      13.2%
JRP         5.9%             4                        7.5%
DPP        4.8%             2                        3.8%
CDP      23.1%           13                      24.5%
RS          1.0%            0                      ~1.4%?
SDP        2.3%            0                      ~1.4%?
JCP         8.5%            4                        7.5%
OTHERS  2.6%

産経(Sankei) correctly assumed that some of the LDP PR vote will really be for KP.  The other adjustments seems a bit strange.  They tend to think that SDP and DPP will under perform polling while JRP will over perform polling   

[jaichind]

大阪(Osaka) radio station MBS also did a survey of 兵庫(Hyōgo) (3- member) and without giving number had the sequence being

LDP
JRP
CDP
KP

which is a shocking defeat of KP in addition to KP being driven to 5th place in 大阪(Osaka)
This is a pattern this year as 毎日(Mainichi) had a shocking projection that KP will be driven to 5th place in 愛知(Aichi) by JCP.

I am skeptical that this is what will transpire.  KP is always under-polled and these survey results might galvanize  the KP turnout machine.  On the other hand the KP % of the VAP has been slowing declining over the last couple of decades.  Over time KP will face trouble especially if turnout picks up.  2019 might be that year.  Most likely not.

[jaichind]

Magazine Nikkan Gendai continues the trend of weekly magazines that come out with scary and significant LDP setback projections (mostly to boost sales at newsstands)

On its front page it has an headline that LDP will suffer setbacks in at least 14 districts


In detail they have

LDP could lose
青森(Aomori) - not a shock, LDP could lose here
福島(Fukushima) - not a shock, this is suppose to be neck-to-neck but recent media projections has LDP winning in a landslide
山梨(Yamanashi) - not a shock as this is suppose to be neck-to-neck but in the run up to the election this was viewed as pretty safe LDP
三重(Mie) - this is suppose to lean opposition but recent polling gives LDP the edge
奈良(Nara),香川(Kagawa),長崎(Nagasaki) - shock, LDP is suppose to be way ahead here
大分(Ōita - on paper tossup but in the run up to the election the LDP was seen as having the edge

Competitive
岩手(Iwate) - opposition should have edge but recent polling gives LDP the edge
宮城(Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata),新潟(Niigata) - makes sense as these are tossups
滋賀(Shiga) - on paper lean LDP but in the run up to the election is seen as tossup

Opposition edge
秋田(Akita) - shock as this is suppose to be solid LDP, recent polling also show opposition edge
長野(Nagano), 沖縄(Okinawa) - not a surprise
愛媛(Ehime) - was suppose to be tossup but recent polling shows a clear opposition edge

Mutli-member districts where LDP could suffer losses
北海道(Hokkaido) - LDP should win 2 out of 3 but some polling show JCP running strong and could take one of the 2 LDP seats
東京(Tokyo) - LDP should win 2  out of 6 seats but perhaps JRP could come on to take out the weaker LDP candidate
千葉(Chiba) LDP should win 2 out of 3 seats but a strong JCP could take out the weaker LDP candidate
大阪(Osaka) - LDP should win 1 out of 4 seats but CDP or even JCP could come in to squeeze them out
広島(Hiroshima) - LDP was trying to win both seat which was not seen as likely.  Recent polling suggest LDP has a stolid shot.  This projection claims this is not in the bag.


Most likely the more non-mainstream of these projections will not take place.  They are just taking the medium media projection and adding an anti-LDP spin.

[jaichind]

Decision tree on who to vote for on the PR slate based on 朝日( Asahi) polling



Do you support the increase of consumption tax to 10% later in 2019? YES
    Is national sovereignty and a rising PRC an issue for you?  YES
        Do you support 池田 大作 (Ikeda Daisaku) President Emeritus of Soka Gakkai? YES
            Vote KP
       Do you support 池田 大作 (Ikeda Daisaku) President Emeritus of Soka Gakkai? NO
           Vote LDP
   Is national sovereignty and a rising PRC an issue for you?  NO
       Do you support Reiwa as era name? YES
           Vote CDP
       Do you support Reiwa as era name? NO       
           Vote JCP
Do you support the increase of consumption tax to 10% later in 2019? NO
    Are you happy with current funding method of pension system? YES
        Are you for ending nuclear power ? YES
            Do you trust RS's 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) YES
                Vote RS
           Do you trust RS's 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) NO
                Are you for a female emperor? YES
                    Do you support Reiwa as era name? YES
                        Vote CDP
                    Do you support Reiwa as era name? NO       
                        Vote JCP       
               Are you for a female emperor? NO
                     Are you for the new 2015 security legislation? YES
                          Vote JRP
                     Are you for the new 2015 security legislation? NO
                          Vote DPP
        Are you for ending nuclear power ? NO
            Are you for the new 2015 security legislation? YES
                Vote JRP
            Are you for the new 2015 security legislation? NO
                Vote DPP           
    Are you happy with current funding method of pension system? NO     
        Is national sovereignty and a rising PRC an issue for you?  YES
            Do you support 池田 大作 (Ikeda Daisaku) President Emeritus of Soka Gakkai? YES
                Vote KP
           Do you support 池田 大作 (Ikeda Daisaku) President Emeritus of Soka Gakkai? NO
               Vote LDP
        Is national sovereignty and a rising PRC an issue for you?  NO
            Do you support Reiwa as era name? YES
                Vote CDP
            Do you support Reiwa as era name? NO       
                Vote JCP       
               
 

[jaichind]

CDP is complaining about a Abe dirty trick.  In various Abe's stump speeches he keeps on referring to CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio), as  枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) of the 民主(Democratic Party).  The reason why this incorrect name is important is that when the Japanese voter votes, he/she writes the name of the candidate on the ballot for the district race and writes the name or party name on the PR section.  When they write the names, acceptable abbreviations are accepted.   For example LDP is called 自由民主党 but often called 自民党, 自民 or even 自.  So if a voter writes on the PR section "自由民主党" "自民党" "自民" or "自" they call gets counted toward LDP.  DPJ or 民主党 was the main opposition party for years until DPJ became DP in 2016.  民主 was always an acceptable name on the PR section for DPJ and for DP.

In 2017 CDP or 立憲民主党 was the only successor party of DP running that had "民主" in the party name as HP was called 希望.  So in 2017 CDP ads called on voters to write "民主" on the ballot to vote for CDP since many former DPJ/DP voters were used to voting "民主"


Now in 2019 there is another successor party to DPJ which is DPP or 国民民主党.  Problem here is 国民民主党 also has "民主"  in it so a vote on the PR section for "民主" will count as a null vote.  So CDP now has ads asking its voters to write down "りっけん" which is Hiragana for 立憲 or Constitutional since the word "憲" is fairly hard to write.


Now with Abe constantly talking about how 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) is the leader of 民主(Democratic Party) it sort of sends a subliminal message to old DPJ and now CDP voters to just enter the voting booth to vote for "民主" which will ended up counting as null.

Pretty clever trick by Abe.

[xelas81]

CDP is complaining about a Abe dirty trick.  In various Abe's stump speeches he keeps on referring to CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio), as  枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) of the 民主(Democratic Party).  The reason why this incorrect name is important is that when the Japanese voter votes, he/she writes the name of the candidate on the ballot for the district race and writes the name or party name on the PR section.  When they write the names, acceptable abbreviations are accepted.   For example LDP is called 自由民主党 but often called 自民党, 自民 or even 自.  So if a voter writes on the PR section "自由民主党" "自民党" "自民" or "自" they call gets counted toward LDP.  DPJ or 民主党 was the main opposition party for years until DPJ became DP in 2016.  民主 was always an acceptable name on the PR section for DPJ and for DP...

But 自民党 could also mean Liberal Party, name used by Ichirō Ozawa lead party (twice).
Since Liberal party merged to DPP, it doesn't matter for this election but when it existed 自民党 could mean both LP and LDP.

[jaichind]

CDP is complaining about a Abe dirty trick.  In various Abe's stump speeches he keeps on referring to CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio), as  枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) of the 民主(Democratic Party).  The reason why this incorrect name is important is that when the Japanese voter votes, he/she writes the name of the candidate on the ballot for the district race and writes the name or party name on the PR section.  When they write the names, acceptable abbreviations are accepted.   For example LDP is called 自由民主党 but often called 自民党, 自民 or even 自.  So if a voter writes on the PR section "自由民主党" "自民党" "自民" or "自" they call gets counted toward LDP.  DPJ or 民主党 was the main opposition party for years until DPJ became DP in 2016.  民主 was always an acceptable name on the PR section for DPJ and for DP...

But 自民党 could also mean Liberal Party, name used by Ichirō Ozawa lead party (twice).
Since Liberal party merged to DPP, it doesn't matter for this election but when it existed 自民党 could mean both LP and LDP.

It really comes down to convention.  The Japanese election commission goes with general societal convention.  In theory  LDP's full name, 自由民主党, has the word Democratic (民主) in it too.  But since no one ever uses the word 民主 in relation to LDP, all vote historically for 民主 has been for DPJ or its successor parties where there is only one that has the word 民主 (DP in 2016 and CDP in 2017).  As for LP (自由党), since there is a name space collision with LDP, by convention they are refereed to as Free(由).  Also no one ever refers to LDP as 自由 only.  Perhaps as 自 or 自民.  So a vote for 由 is or  自由党 is clearly counted for as LP.  A vote for 自由 is tricky.  While LP is on the ballot (which is really in 2001 since after PLP was renamed to LP again in 2016 LP has never appeared in the PR ballot as it did not run in 2017 to back HP and now it merged into DPP) I think a vote for 自由 would be counted as LP while when LP is not on the ballot a vote 自由 most likely would be counted for LDP or maybe NULL.  I am not sure about that one.

Back in 2016 this was a controversy as well.  In the run up to the 2016 Upper House elections DPJ merged with JIP to form Democratic Party or DP (民進党).   Since most of the old DPJ voters would be voting for this party DP lobbied hard with the Japanese election commission to make sure a vote for 民主 counts toward DP and not NULL.  In the end the Japanese election commission relented and ruled that it is clear in society eyes that DP is the successor party to DPJ even though DP does not have words 民主 in its name a vote for 民主 counts toward DP.

Of course now the tricky part is that we have 2 successor parties of DPJ both with the word 民主 in them.

[jaichind]

JX survey of several key multi-member districts

東京(Tokyo) (6- member): LDP JCP KP LP CDP CDP (JRP).  The two CDP candidates bring up the rear but are well ahead of JRP

神奈川(Kanagawa) (4- member): LDP CDP KP JRP (JCP).  JRP and JCP neck-to-neck for the 4th and last seat.  JRP ahead of JCP by a very tiny margin.

大阪(Osaka) (4- member): JRP LDP JRP KP (JCP) (CDP).  JCP and CDP both neck-to-neck in their battle to challenge the weaker JRP and KP to get above the line.

兵庫(Hyōgo) (3- member): LDP KP JRP (CDP).  3 way tied between KP JRP and CDP for 2nd to 4th place.  On paper KP and JRP just edge out CDP but it is very close.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/sangiin/20190710-OYT1T50171/

Points out that election commission FAQ indicated that

民主 -> NULL
国 or 国民民主 -> DPP
自 -> LDP
公 -> KP

[jaichind]

LDP ad on how the voting works.  There are two ballots.  First ballot for district LDP asks you write the LDP candidate name on the.  One the second ballot for PR LDP asks for a vote for one of its PR candidates or just vote LDP.

[jaichind]

One thing I noticed about all these media projections is for 2- member 京都(Kyoto) all of them have JCP incumbent beating out CDP for the second seat. 

I find this hard to believe. I think CDP is bound to beat JCP for the second seat for sure even if the JCP candidate is an incumbent.  The reason is since 1995, the LDP+JCP vote share for 京都(Kyoto) Upper house district seat has never exceeded 61.7%. That means the sum of all non-LDP non-JCP parties will have at least 38.3%.  The only way for JCP to win is for the non-LDP non-JCP vote to be fragmented like in 2013.  This time around, other than LDP and JCP, only CDP is running (plus micro parties like NPHK and new Leftist micro-party Olive).  Even if we give PNHK and Olive 5% of the vote CDP is destined to win at least 30% of the vote if not higher.  It is almost impossible for JCP to win more than 30% of the vote and most likely will not even cross 25% (JCP won around 20% in 2016 and 2013.) 

In fact all this talk about JCP beating out CDP will ensure a large scale tactical voting by KP and JRP PR voters to CDP to stop JCP.