2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

As the campaign is about to get started there has been a recurring pattern last several elections (2014 2016 2017) of the dynamics of the race. 

Phase 1: About a month before election day, it seems that LDP might be in trouble with some media projections showing significant losses for the LDP due to the opposition getting their act together either because of better collaboration or projecting someone that can defeat the Abe TINA advantage.   One could not be sure since these media outfits could be trying to just sell some extra magazines with provocative projections. 

Phase 2: About 3-4 seeks before the election the opposition makes a series of unforced errors that raises doubt that a setback for LDP will get in coalition of chaos.

Phase 3: Then 2 weeks before the election various media outfits publish projections based on some mega polls (with potentially sample sizes of over 100K) which show a massive LDP landslide.   In retrospect these projections exaggerates the size of the LDP victory but the message is clear that the LDP is going to steamroll to victory.

Phase 4: Due to projections of a LDP landslide turnout is low with the anti-LDP vote not motivated to vote, especially for a loser, which aids in a LDP victory which is smaller than originally expected but still a significant  victory.

So far this election Phase 1 is running as expected.  We are about to enter into Phase 2 so we will see if there are some opposition goof-ups next week or so.    The media mega polls come out 2 weeks before election day so they should come out around July 7th which is next weekend.  Lets see if this year's election goes according to script the last few cycles.

[Cape Verde]

Will 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) finally return to the Diet? I am not sure if he is completely free of cancer, but his return will be interesting to watch. I am also curious whether his daughter will continue to stay in LDP or cross over to JRP after the election.

[jaichind]

Will 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) finally return to the Diet? I am not sure if he is completely free of cancer, but his return will be interesting to watch. I am also curious whether his daughter will continue to stay in LDP or cross over to JRP after the election.

JRP will win 4-5 seats on the PR slate.  It is pretty much a certainty that 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) will be in the top 3 if not the top vote winner in the JRP list so he will for sure be elected.  In 2017  Suzuki  ran in the NPD PR slate while his daughter ran on the LDP PR slate.  So there is no reason why their cannot hedge their bets by being in 2 different parties.

Both of them being in parliament is poor political etiquette.  Just like the old English rule on one daughter from a family and be a Débutante  at a time Japanese politics has a similar unwritten rule that only one member of a political clan can be in active politics at the same time.  The Suzukis are breaking this etiquette.

 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) finally return to the Diet? I am not sure if he is completely free of cancer, but his return will be interesting to watch. I am also curious whether his daughter will continue to stay in LDP or cross over to JRP after the election.

JRP will win 4-5 seats on the PR slate.  It is pretty much a certainty that 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) will be in the top 3 if not the top vote winner in the JRP list so he will for sure be elected.  In 2017  Suzuki  ran in the NPD PR slate while his daughter ran on the LDP PR slate.  So there is no reason why their cannot hedge their bets by being in 2 different parties.

Both of them being in parliament is poor political etiquette.  Just like the old English rule on one daughter from a family and be a Débutante  at a time Japanese politics has a similar unwritten rule that only one member of a political clan can be in active politics at the same time.  The Suzukis are breaking this etiquette.

 

https://bunshun.jp/articles/-/2366
This is an interesting in-depth article I found re: Takako and Muneo Suzuki.

[jaichind]

This chart shows how the Japan Upper House PR open list system works.  One can vote for a party OR a member of the Party list.  The number of seats to be allocated to a party is based on the sum of all the votes for the party and everyone on its list.  Then the allocation of winners based on the seats allocated is a function of the number of votes received by the candidates on this list.



So on this chart, the third place vote vote receiver of Party A is not elected since he came in third but the first place finisher of Party B is elected even though the candidate on the Party A  received just as many votes as the the candidate on the Party B list (500K).

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll on PR section (diff from May)

LDP   44(+1)
KP      6(+1)
JRP     6(-1)
DPP    1(-1)
CDP  14(+3)
SDP    2(+1)
JCP     4(--)

[jaichind]

Looks like I got my dates wrong.  The first NicoNico (Japan's Youtube) party leader's debate is taking place right now



It seems SDP was not invited and neither is RS.  I guess that is consistent standard on poll threshold to participate. 

[jaichind]

The seating arrangement of the debate is not random.  It has LDP and CDP in the middle as the main combatants. their main ally KP and DPP on their flanks, and then JRP and JCP on the fringe which represents the remoteness of both these parties to national power.  Of course this elevates DPP since it is clear that JCP and JRP support in polls exceed DPP. 

[jaichind]

The debate so far is mostly going according to script.  The opposition parties attacking Abe on the the pension system shortfall problem and the consumption tax increase while Abe attacks the opposition for trying to bring a coalition of chaos by forming an alliance with the JCP at the 1- member district seats.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri Shimbun poll on PR vote

LDP   40
KP      5
JRP     6
DPP    2
CDP  10
SDP    2
JCP    4

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval 53(-2)/36(+4)



Back in June 2016 it was

LDP     35 (-7)
KP         7 (+2)
ORA       7 (+2)
DP       12 (+1)
JCP        4 (-1)

Back in 2013 it was

LDP      42
KP          6
JRP         5
YP          5
DPJ        9
JCP        4

[jaichind]

The Opposition talking point about how the LDP PR vote ranges from only 17%-19% of VAP made me construct this chart below with the 5 main parties/blocs where I track vote share of each party/bloc as a function of VAP.  Turnout is also total valid (non-null) PR vote as a % of VAP.

Year    Turnout    LDP         KP      Center     Third       JCP
                                                  Left         Pole
2001   54.03%  20.84%   8.08%  13.29%   6.29%   4.27%
2003   57.77%  20.19%   8.54%  24.56%                4.48%
2004   54.52%  16.37%   8.40%  25.37%   0.13%   4.25%
2005   65.85%  25.14%   8.73%  24.04%   3.17%   4.78%
2007   56.81%  15.95%   7.49%  26.02%   3.10%   4.25%
2009   67.70%  18.10%   7.75%  31.60%   5.49%   4.76%
2010   56.19%  13.53%   7.34%  20.29%  11.60%  3.43%
2012   57.89%  15.99%   6.85%  13.92%  17.58%  3.55%
2013   51.11%  17.72%   7.27%    9.81%  11.35%  4.95%
2014   51.30%  16.99%   7.04%  11.66%   9.69%   5.83%
2016   52.74%  18.94%   7.13%  13.96%   6.44%   5.66%
2017   52.56%  17.49%   6.58%  20.46%   3.76%   4.15%

It seems in 2003 the fusion of Third Pole Ozawa led LP into DPJ led the larger DPJ to pull in extra anti-LDP vote now there was an alternative to LDP.  

In 2004 the LDP turnout declined which produced a near tie between LDP-KP and DPJ

The 2005 Koizumi landslide was mostly about LDP losing some votes to the various LDP postal rebels that became Third Pole but easily made up for that by a massive pro-LDP turnout while the DPJ vote stayed the same.

In 2007 under Abe disappointment in LDP reforms led to a large drop in LDP turnout which with a small increase in the DPJ vote led to a decisive LDP defeat while in 2009 part of the LDP vote came back but a massive turnout for DPJ led to a landslide DPJ victory.

In 2010 disappointment in both LDP and DPJ led to lower turnout for those parties while some of that support went to LDP splinter Third Pole YP.  

In 2012 the total failure of the DPJ regime led to a swing toward LDP and a rising Third Pole JRP which produced a LDP landslide.   By 2013 the decline of DPJ turnout continued while LDP took over some of the JRP and YP vote.

The decline of Third Pole continued in 2014 with some of that support flowing back to the Center-Left parties which continued in 2016 and 2017 while LDP support mostly bounced between 17%-19% of VAP.

The 2017 election saw HP eat into the JRP vote due to the Koike effect which will be reversed in 2019 so it is reasonable that Third Pole parties will poll around 5%-6% of VAP.

Other secular trends are that KP is slowing declining over time while JCP support fell in 2010 and 2012 when the ruling party was DPJ and then surged due to the 2014-2016 era of continued anger at DPJ but after that reverted back to its historical norm of 4%-5% of VAP.

[jaichind]

On the topic of Constitutional revision both Abe and CDP's Edano tried to frame the debate to their advantage.   Abe positioned it as the need to keep SDF legal from CDP's ally JCP that Abe pointed out has a position that SDF is unconstitutional.  Edano positioned Constitutional revision as about getting Japan entangled in collective defense treaties where Japan will be forced to be involved in a war along with an ally (read: USA) that is against a power that is not at war with Japan (read: Iran, or even PRC/Russia.)   

There is a majority that for keeping SDF legal but there is also a majority that is against Japan being involved in a foreign war due to its alliance with other powers.  Both Abe and Edano is trying the frame the debate in a way to get the majority opinion on their side.

[jaichind]

Report station poll

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval 43.3(-3.9)/38.2(+5.7)

PR section of Upper House election

LDP  33.0
KP     4.5
JRP    2.8
DPP   1.2
CDP   9.8
SDP   0.8
JCP    5.4

[jaichind]

Another Center-Left/JCP attack on LDP pointed out that almost the entire Abe Cabinet is a member of 日本会議(Nippon Kaigi) which is an NGO that promotes nationalism, patriotism and constitutional revision.


It is really about point of view.  From the Opposition point of view this is like saying: "Hey, have you noticed that almost everyone one in the Abe Cabinet is a member of a ultra-nationalist Skull and Bones/Trilateral Commission !!"

From the LDP point of view it is : "So almost everyone in the Abe cabinet is a member of the pro-patriotic Heritage Foundation/CPAC? So what, that is a feature of being in the LDP and not a bug"

[jaichind]

Abe Cabinet approval and party support curves after a rash of polls over the weekend.

Abe Cabinet support seem to stabilize around 46/36


Party support have LDP around 36 and CDP rising again past 7 toward 8

[jaichind]

Some LDP leaked polls (which could be strategic so take it with a large grain of salt)

Competitive 1- member districts
秋田(Akita) LDP 41.9 OPPN 40.0 - surprisingly close given lean of prefecture
岩手(Iwate ) OPPN 38.6 LDP 37.3 - surprisingly close, should be a significant OPPN victory.  LDP candidate was a long time member of Ozawa clique so he might have a strong personal vote beyond LDP base
宮城(Miyagi) LDP 42.6 CDP 41.2 - very close as expected
山形(Yamagata) OPPN 43.5 LDP 41.6 - very close as expected
福島(Fukushima) LDP 41.7 OPPN 39.9 - very close as expected
新潟(Niigata) OPPN 42.7 LDP 35.6 - should be close but LDP incumbent is scandal ridden
三重(Mie) LDP 41.0 OPPN 36.7 - should be significant opposition lead. Local Center-Left and JCP are hostile to each other so JCP vote might not have been rallied behind the OPPN candidate yet
滋賀(Shiga) OPPN 42.8 LDP 42.0 - LDP should be ahead here. OPPN candidate is a popular ex-governor which might be making it a neck-to-neck race
愛媛(Ehime) - OPPN 45.6 LDP 37.9 - OPPN is an ex-DPJ member of Upper House and have deep roots here.  He ran in 2016 as OPPN candidate and almost won an upset.  Looks like this time he is well ahead which is a surprise
大分(Ōita) LDP 41.5 OPPN 37.6 - OPPN should be ahead or at least neck-to-neck here based on fundamentals.  SDP and JCP vote base not fusing and candidate quality gap seems to be giving LDP an edge here.

Multi-member districts

広島(Hiroshima) (2- member)
LDP    33.9
OPPN  21.7
LDP    17.1
JCP    ?

JRP vote seem to be consolidating behind LDP but poor distribution of vote is giving CDP-DPP backed OPPN a chance to beat back LDP's plans to win both seats.  Not knowing the JCP vote share does not give us a sense if the JCP vote will tactically vote OPPN to beat back the LDP.  A clear LDP signal for the LDP vote there to shift toward the weaker LDP candidate.


北海道(Hokkaido) (3- member)
LDP  33.8
CDP  22.8
LDP  11.5
JCP   10.2
DPP    4.9

It is a surprise that JCP is the candidate that is a challenge to stop a LDP win of 2 out of 3 seats and not DPP.  Could be a LDP ploy to get DPP voters to vote JCP to stop LDP when in reality the DPP candidate is the one close to weaker LDP candidate.  The stronger LDP candidate is a popular ex-governor so this poll is a signal for the LDP vote to consolidate around the weaker LDP candidate.


東京(Tokyo) (6- member)

LDP   17.8
JCP   12.2
KP     11.3
LDP     9.5
RS      9.0
CDP    7.5
CDP    5.8
JRP     4.9
DPP    1.5

LDP looks safe to win 2 seat here.  CDP looks fairly weak but so does JRP.  RS and JCP vote holding up.


KP also had some poll leaks where they have:

埼玉(Saitama) (4- member): LDP CDP and KP will win for sure.  JCP beat out DPP for the 4th seat.  Matches CW.
神奈川(Kanagawa) (4- member): LDP CDP and KP will win for sure. JRP beat out JCP for the 4th seat. Matches CW but I have JCP beating JRP.
兵庫(Hyōgo) (3- member): LDP KP will win for sure. CDP beat out JRP for the 3rd seat.  CW has JRP winning but I have CDP winning.
愛知(Aichi) (4- member): LDP CDP DPP will win for sure. KP in a difficult battle with JCP and JRP for the 4th seat.  This is a surprise as CW has LDP KP CDP DPP win for sure with JCP and JRP with not much chance of getting into the top 4. KP might have defected KP weakness here is is putting this news out to ask for KP mobilization for  愛知(Aichi).

[jaichind]

In minor party news it seems 支持政党なし or Non-Party Bloc which was founded and led by businessperson 佐野秀光(Hidemitsu Sano) has renamed itself 安楽死制度を考える会 or  Euthanasia Party.  NPB has always had Euthanasia  as part of its plank but mostly positioned itself as a protest anti-politics party. Now it will focus on Euthanasia as its main plank.

[jaichind]

A new party that is running is the New Left 労働の解放をめざす労働者党 or Worker's party for the Liberation of Labor.  This party are made up of Far Left activists that broke with JCP back in the 1970s.  Main problem with this party is that it has no youth appeal and are made up of old New Left activists from the 1960s and 1970s.

Its PR list candidates make that clear






With all 4 candidates are in their 70s and 80s.  Even the protest anti-system voter most likely will not find their way to vote for this list.

[jaichind]

The KP position on Constitutional revision seems to be distancing itself from LDP.  KP insist that "there is no current concern nor risk that the SDF will become illegal.  The basis for discussion on Constitutional revision should focus on other concerns" which is pretty much cutting off the legs of the Abe argument that  Constitutional revision has to be done to protect the legality of SDF.

The main KP strategy here seems to be that it wants distance itself from LDP to get crossover votes from CDP-DPP voting bloc where it is running. Of course this could also encourage some crossover voting by KP voters for the Center-Left opposition  where KP is not running.  This sort of took place in 2016 and it seems will take place again this time around.  This should help the Center-Left Opposition in 1- member districts and multi-member battleground prefectures where KP is not running like 北海道(Hokkaido) and 広島(Hiroshima).  KP would expect with this maneuver to ensure its victory in places where it might be in danger like 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 愛知(Aichi) where KP claims it is vulnerable.  Of course if cross voting by CDP-DPP voters for KP takes place in place KP is running it also help JRP indirectly in places like 兵庫(Hyōgo) where CDP-DPP vote for KP would reduce the CDP vote and increase the JRP chance to beat out CDP for the 3rd and last seat while in places like 大阪(Osaka) and 神奈川(Kanagawa) cross voting by the Center-Left bloc for KP will reduce the Center-Left vote poll to tactically vote for JCP to beat JRP for the 4th and last seat.

KP does seem less confident this time around than pervious years.   So far KP has only nominated 6 PR candidates and it is not clear it will nominate more.  if it does not then it is an admission from KP that its PR vote share will be something like 12% versus something like 13.5%.  The secular trend is that KP support is slowing declining over time. At some point of turnout surges which could be what KP might be detecting than the KP PR vote share will fall.  A review of the KP PR vote history with turnout has

Year  Turnout   KP PR vote
2001  54.03%  14.96%
2003  57.77%  14.78%
2004  54.52%  15.41%
2005  65.85%  13.25%
2007  56.81%  13.18%
2009  67.70%  11.45%
2010  56.19%  13.07%
2012  57.89%  11.83%
2013  51.11%  14.22%
2014  51.30%  13.71%
2016  52.74%  13.52%
2017  52.56%  12.51%

If KP PR vote this time is also 12.5% then KP will get 6 seats and not 7 that many, including myself expect.  Of course if turnout is lower than 52.5% then this might become 7.  I guess KP feels that its support will be at best 2017 levels AND turnout might, if anything, increase.  KP is more interested to show its ability to win all seats  projects to win versus maximizing the number of its seats won.  So the KP strategy of nominating 6 PR candidates might make sense.  Of course this it not totally locked down yet.   

[jaichind]

Another party leader's debate at the Japan Press Club.  This time SDP attended but not RS.

Abe spent most of the time attacking the CDP-DPP alliance with JCP in 1- member districts even though CDP-DPP and JCP differ on the status of SDF where CDP-DPP feel that SDF is Constitutional while JCP does not.   Clearly Abe wants to hammer home the need for Constitutional revision while trying to break the Center-Left Opposition and JCP alliance.  The Center-Left Opposition mostly attacked Abe, again, on the state of the pension system and the consumption tax increase.   JRP accused the LDP of being for vested interest and rejected claims that JRP might join LDP in an post-election coalition.

[jaichind]

山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) made the last minute shock move of deciding to run on the RS PR list instead of running in 東京(Tokyo). I guess he might have seen the CDP strength in 東京(Tokyo) rise and with 2 CDP 1 DPP 1 SDP all fighting him for the 3 out of 6 seats available for the opposition (we have to assume that LDP will capture 2 and KP 1) he was not certain of victory.  So instead running on the RS slate he figure he could push the RS national vote up to get him elected.  

On the whole this seems like a net positive news for the anti-Constitutional revision bloc. While 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) running in 東京(Tokyo) meant that it is certain that the split of seats there will be 3-3 for LDP-KP and anti-Constitutional revision bloc there was a risk that RS might fall just below the threshold to get a PR seat.  With 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) at the head of the RS list it seem now almost certain that RS will cross the threshold to get a PR seat.  It now falls on CDP to win 2 out of 6 seats in  東京(Tokyo) (LDP will win 2 KP 1 and JCP 1) as poor distribution of the CDP vote might still throw away a seat to JRP waiting in the wings.  What the anti-Constitutional revision bloc gives up by having 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  not run in  東京(Tokyo) is a chance at winning  東京(Tokyo) 4-2 (LDP 1 KP 1 CDP 2 JCP 1 RS 1) where a large CDP surge and poor vote distribution by LDP has the second LDP candidate finishing behind the second CDP candidate.  But that was a very long shot anyway.

In fact now in retrospect  山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) might have coordinated with CDP on this a while ago.  It looked fairly irrational for CDP a while ago to nominate 2 candidates in 東京(Tokyo) given how crowed the field was which risked letting in JRP to win the 6th seat.  With 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) not running in  東京(Tokyo) then JRP would have beaten out DPP for the 6th seat had CDP only nominated one candidate.  With 2 CDP candidates and proper vote distribution CDP should be able to with both edging out JRP.

[jaichind]

It seems KP will nominate more than 6 PR candidates.  Still all signs are the way they are mobilizing their vote they are targeting to win 6 and no 7 PR seats.  One cannot be sure until the last week before the election on what the KP strategy is.

[jaichind]

I guess the debate judges decided to copy the USA Democratic primary debate methods.  They asked for a show of hands on support for a change of the law to allow for the husband and wife to have different surnames. Everyone is for except for Abe.   I am surprised that JRP is for. But I guess JRP is trying to win the urban Right wing vote which are more liberal on social issues. Abe and LDP represent the rural Right which are more conservative on social issues even if they are more Centrist if not Leftist on economic policy.

[jaichind]

The USA Democratic Primary debate method of show of hands most of which are gender related have 4 questions

Question 1: Are you for allowing a female emperor
Only JCP and SDP are for.  Rest are against

Question 2: Are you for banning nuclear power
CDP JRP JCP SDP are for.  LDP KP DPP are against.    DPP is close to the labor union Rengo which represent a lot of workers at nuclear power plants.


Question 3: Are you for allowing a husband and wife to have different last names.
Only LDP is againist everyone else is for.


Question 4: Are you for expanding LGBT rights.
LDP and KP are against everyone else are for.  KP is controlled by the Soka Gakkai which is in turn controlled by the Soka Gakkai married women division who are fairly conservative on the gay marriage issue.


It is interesting how socially liberal JRP.  JRP is of course much more right wing on economic policy and fairly hawkish on foreign policy especially with respect to DPRK.

Abe could see that these "votes" are costing him urban and suburban women votes and asked these Yes/No votes stop as he clearly was upset about these turn of events.  He complained on stage that policy requires discussion and is not about Yes/No.    


All things equal JRP most likely gained some socially liberal LDP votes away from LDP from this exchange.  Most likely not much to make much of a difference but JRP clearly gained from this exchange.

 

[jaichind]

Chart on number of candidates

         District     PR
LDP     49          33
CDP     20          22
DPP     14          14
KP         7          17
JRP       8          14
SDP      3            4
RS              10            -> all should be PR
EP        9            1       -> Euthanasia Party
PNHK  37           4
Olive    6            4        -> Anti-nuclear center-left
HRP     9            3
LAB      6           4        -> New Left
IND    29                     -> 19 are Center-Left-JCP joint candidates, 2 are LDP rebels, rest minor

It seems PNHK is going all out.  Good strategy.  Brand new parties tend to over-perform due to novelty factor so PNHK wants to cash in on that.