2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

It seems exit polls were pretty much on target with the main error of overestimating OPPN and underestimating the various minor candidates

[jaichind]

A transcript from count from one of the cities in 埼玉(Saitama)  朝霞市 (Asaka city) shows why the count often shifts in favor of the eventual winner toward the end of the count, especially if the eventually winner tends to be stronger in urban areas.


Time               10PM        10:30PM     11PM      Final
Vote counted    35.33%      83.55%    97.01%   100%
OPPN                6000         14000     17400     17600
LDP-KP             6000         14000     14600     14743
PNHK                 200             600       1400      1498


The idea is that earlier in the count what gets reported are rough thresholds each candidate is at an as long as it is not a blowout earlier in the count the the leading candidates tends to be reported at the same threshold.  At the count closes out the real gap emerges.

For dense urban areas the count is slower so this artificial closeness of counts persists later into the counting night while in rural areas the real count emerges earlier.  So if the election is close the more urban heavy candidate tend to weaker earlier in the overall count but catches up toward the end toward their true level of support.

[jaichind]

岩手(Iwate) governor and prefecture assembly today.  Pro-Ozawa incumbent governor won an easy re-election as a United Front candidate (DPP CDP SDP JCP) over the pro-LDP-KP challenger 72.1% to 27.9%.

 In the prefecture assembly the pro-Ozawa forces maintained control of the assembly with outside support of JCP.  LDP seems to have gained a seat which means that the anti-Ozawa forces made a small net gain.  In 2015 LDP-KP failed to nominate a candidate for governor which most likely depressed LDP turnout.  This time around with at least a pro-LDP-KP candidate for governor the LDP was hoping to make gains.  It seems the net result is almost status quo with a slight shift to LDP.

[jaichind]

Miraisyakai analysis of the 2019 LDP PR vote


The more urbanized (population density) the lower the LDP PR vote


Even back in 1974 the LDP PR vote was weak in urban centers


Rural areas have been losing population over the last decade


Birth rates in rural areas are still higher than urban areas which means that the greater population growth in urban areas are from rural->urban migration.  It seems that LDP does well with the rural population that choose to stay behind and not migrate to urban areas.

[jaichind]

In 埼玉(Saitama) it seems the Opposition is going to try to pull off a Castle move.  Since a DPP 埼玉(Saitama) MP resigned to run for the open seat for seat for governor, it seems now the ex-governor 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) who just retired from the governor seat after 4 terms is looking to run in the by-election to fill the open position for the Upper House seat.  Obviously he will run as an OPPN candidate.  If JCP can be convinced to step aside and back 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) then he might be the favorite to win the by-election, especially if the LDP cannot find a quality candidate.  The LDP have the additional problem of a possible JRP candidate that might eat up the Third Pole vote that might otherwise go LDP as well as the certainty of a PNHK candidate that will clearly eat into the disgruntled LDP vote. 

For now one would have to rate the by-election in 埼玉(Saitama) which will most likely be held 10/27 as lean Opposition.

[jaichind]

PNHK and HRP district vote map



Note that in 1-member districts PNHK and HRP had an alliance so only one fringe protest party is running at time to collect all the protest votes.

PNHK did well in 福井(Fukui), 鳥取(Tottori), and 徳島(Tokushima) because the united opposition candidate was JCP or JCP running as an independent which meant a lot of anti-LDP anti-JCP votes went over to PNHK.   PNHK also did well in 群馬(Gunma) as the united opposition CDP candidate had more urban appeal and not a good fit for rural 群馬(Gunma) giving PNHK a greater share of the anti-LDP vote.

HRP did very well in 宮崎(Miyazaki) because the united OPPN candidate was fairly weak so a lot of anti-LDP votes went to HRP.  HRP did well in 奈良(Nara) because I suspect a lot of the JRP vote went to HRP not wanting to vote LDP nor the united opposition OPPN candidate who actually was a fairly strong candidate.

[jaichind]

In the upcoming Upper House by-election for 埼玉(Saitama) for 10/27 after sitting DPP MP resigned to successfully run for governor something bizarre has taken place.  The retired governor and opposition leader 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) seems to have indicated that he will run for the seat which puts the race to lean OPPN if not solid OPPN



In a rare move once it is clear that the LDP could not come up something that can match 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) popularity in  埼玉(Saitama), the LDP-KP announced that it will not run a candidate in the by-election and de facto back  上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) given his openness to Constitutional revision.   上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) started in politics in the LDP splinter NLC before joining LDP once NLC merged into NLC.  He then joined the LDP splinter JRP (Japan Renewal Party) in 1993 joining opposition ranks before eventually joining DPJ in the late 1990s.

Note that the LDP decision was made by LDP General Secretary 二階 俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) who was an old rival of Abe but now ally.  二階 俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) joined JRP with  上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) in 1993 and have since rejoined LDP in the early 2000s after spending some time in Ozawa's LP and is known to be close to  上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi).  This personal bond I think drove him to play this "if you cannot beat them join them" approach to a by-election that the LDP seems destined to lose.

So now that it is clear that 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) will win pretty much by default emerge something called "The battle for 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi)" where CDP is working to get 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi)  to join up in the anti-Constitutional revision bloc after the by-election while the LDP is doing the opposite. 

This vacuum is giving a chance to PNHK.  PNHK will nominate ex-LDP MP Mayuko Toyota (豊田真由子) as its candidate.  Mayuko Toyota (豊田真由子) was first elected in the 埼玉(Saitama) 4th district in 2012 and was re-elected in 2014.


Before the 2017 Lower House elections a video came out with  out showing she verbally and physically abusing her aides which led her to be expelled from the LDP.  She ran for her seat in 2017 as a LDP rebel and was defeated in a 5 way race between LDP HP JCP HRP and her.  Now she will run  with PNHK support.

[jaichind]

It seems that there might be a change in plans for PNHK for the upcoming 10/27 埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election.  With LDP-KP stepping side to de facto support OPPN candidate and ex-governor 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) leading to a potential walkover PNHK had floated the ideal of nominating disgraced LDP former Lower House  MP   Mayuko Toyota (豊田真由子).  But now PNHK is indicating that its one and only Upper House MP and PNHK leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) will resign his seat and run in the  10/27 埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election. 

In this scenario, the second candidate on the PNHK list will then become MP for PNHK from the 2019 PNHK list.  I guess 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) figures he is better at being outside of the Parliament and be a true anti-establishment leader.  Also LDP-KP stepping aside leaves a large vacuum for PNHK to step in to capture more supports by being the main opponent to OPPN candidate 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi).

[jaichind]

So in the end the 10/27 埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election will just be ex-governor 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi)  backed by DPP-CDP (and tactility backed by LDP-KP and JCP) vs PNHK's leader and ex-MP 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi).

For the first time I know of we will have a pure establishment vs insurgent election with all established parties (ranging from LDP to JCP) all either backing or implicitly backing one consensus  candidate  vs PNHK's insurgent anti-establishment anti-system campaign.   上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) will win but it will be interesting to see hoe many votes 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) can win.  If he can get his vote share up to 30% it will be a great PNHK victory.  I think LDP might have made a mistake here. If 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) can eat into the LDP vote base that lessens up more disgruntled LDP voters to break ranks and vote PNHK next election.

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election today.  Polls to close soon.  It is a 2 way race between OPPN (with de facto backing by LDP-KP and even JRP) vs PNHK. Would be interesting to see if PNHK can break 30%

[jaichind]

As soon as polls closed election was called for OPPN for 埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election exit poll has it at something like OPPN 85% PNHK 15%.  If so this would be a disappointment to PNHK which would have hoped to go above 20%-25% to perhaps to go to 30%

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election with 3% counted

OPPN  86.8%
PNHK  13.2%

The count is somewhat more rural heavy so PNHK will do a bit better than this.  Still that would mean that the exit polls were spot on.

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election turnout are in the low 20s which would make sense in such an noncompetitive race

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election with 21% counted

OPPN  86.5%
PNHK  13.5%

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election exit poll has party support as

LDP    36
KP        3
JRP      2
PNHK   2
DPP      2
CDP    19
JCP      5

Upper House election earlier this year was

埼玉(Saitama) (4- member)

LDP     28.25%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     19.26%  elected
KP       19.12%  elected (incumbent)
JCP     12.90%  elected
DPP      8.78%
JRP       7.33%
PNHK    2.89%
EP        0.76%
HRP      0.70%

PR breakdown
LDP     31.39%
KP       14.50%
JRP       7.32%
Protest  2.83% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      5.21%
CDP    20.79%
Left       6.72% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP     10.55%
EP        0.68%

District Right/Left balance is 58.30%/40.95% while the PR Right/Left balance is 56.03%/43.28%

KP tends to not just attract LDP PR tactical votes but sometimes DPP/CDP PR tactical votes as well which is what seems to have taken place here.  Inability between anti-JCP JRP and DPP supporters to coordinate means that JCP gets a free pass and wins with ease.

Which implies the party that has surged since the Upper House election is CDP

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election with 56% counted

OPPN  85.6%
PNHK  14.4%

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election turnout seems to be 20.81%

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election with 71% counted

OPPN  85.8%
PNHK  14.2%

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election with 84% counted

OPPN  85.7%
PNHK  14.3%

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) Upper House by-election with 99% counted

OPPN  86.4%
PNHK  13.6%

The urban protest vote did not come out for PNHK candidate and leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi)

[jaichind]

More funding scandals in the Abe cabinet plus the Cherry blossoms party scandal (https://japantoday.com/category/politics/cherry-blossoms-prompt-full-blown-scandal-for-japan's-pm) have driven down Abe cabinet approval


Although LDP support only dropped a bit


Abe seems to want to continue to push Constitutional revision even though his political capital clearly have weakened.  He even alluded to a possible mid-term election but the opposition seems to be not moved. 

[jaichind]

With Abe cabinet support falling on Cherry blossoms party scandal and the recent ruling from an Osaka high court that what the goverment did in the Moritomo Gakuen scandal is illegal there are talk again of a snap election to restore the political power of Abe.  This is unlikely until after the 2020 Olympics.



Anyway declining fortunes of the Abe cabinet have completely stalled the LDP moves toward constitutional revision.  There are now talk about extending Abe's term as LDP president to a 4th 3 year term when his unprecedented 3rd term ends so Abe can get constitutional revision done.   

In the meantime we have renewed talks between CDP DPP and SDP to merge into one super Center-Left opposition party.  I suspect would go nowhere given real policy difference between CDP and DPP.

[PSOL]

I can understand why DPP wouldn’t want to merge, but why are SDP and CDP still individual parties?

[Tintrlvr]

I can understand why DPP wouldn’t want to merge, but why are SDP and CDP still individual parties?

SDP has a long history as an independent party (it was never part of the DPJ), so it's not surprising that they wouldn't automatically want to merge.

As I understand it, the SDP is also sometimes to the left of even the JCP on some issues, so there is at least as much ideological space between the CDP and the SDP as there is between the CDP and the DPP.