If Kobach wins, then this race becomes a pure tossup. Orman would actually become a D ally in this case, because Rs who would have voted for Coyler would vote Orman, basically a siphon, but instead of siphoning our votes, it siphons R votes.
Republicans are a cult. They're going to vote for Kobach no matter what (see sig.) The only people that Orman is going to draw from are moderate heroes that would've voted for the Democrat in a head to head race against Kobach. The fact that he was the de facto Democratic candidate in 2014 only solidifies this.
To be fair, it's not just Republicans (in terms of providing overriding support to a candidate who shares the same party label as them). ~90% of Democrats will also vote for a Democrat in almost every conceivable race these days as well.
