If Kobach wins, then this race becomes a pure tossup. Orman would actually become a D ally in this case, because Rs who would have voted for Coyler would vote Orman, basically a siphon, but instead of siphoning our votes, it siphons R votes.
Republicans are a cult. They're going to vote for Kobach no matter what (see sig.) The only people that Orman is going to draw from are moderate heroes that would've voted for the Democrat in a head to head race against Kobach. The fact that he was the de facto Democratic candidate in 2014 only solidifies this.
