IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12

[morgieb]

[adrac]

Many HUGE red flags in the crosstabs for this one suggesting it is not what it looks like:

1. Donnelly doing better among men than women is questionable at best.
2. Braun winning 89% of 18-25 year olds and 1% of 56-61 year olds.
3. Absolutely zero undecideds in CD-1 (I know this is heavily D district, but nowhere in the country is that inelastic)
4. The crosstabs across CD in general are pretty insane.
5. Nearly the exact same undecided movement in the Donnelly Votes Yes crosstab despite massive sample size making that nearly statistically impossible.
6. If these numbers were anywhere close to the truth, Donnelly would have released an internal by now.

Likely explanation: this poll has a wildly small sample size that was weighted to the massive number they report (this would explain #5). The numbers are probably far from accurate, and this poll probably has an ulterior motive.

Absolutely hysterical.

[Pollster]

Want to reiterate one very important point: if these numbers were anywhere close to the truth, Donnelly and/or his allies would have released an internal poll with a similar showing by now.

Hard to overstate how bogus this poll is.

[Devout Centrist]

Want to reiterate one very important point: if these numbers were anywhere close to the truth, Donnelly and/or his allies would have released an internal poll with a similar showing by now.

Hard to overstate how bogus this poll is.

Why? So donors will pull out and let Donnelly fundraise all by himself?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Want to reiterate one very important point: if these numbers were anywhere close to the truth, Donnelly and/or his allies would have released an internal poll with a similar showing by now.

Hard to overstate how bogus this poll is.

Why? So donors will pull out and let Donnelly fundraise all by himself?

Good point.

[Ljube]

LOL!

Likely R. Move on.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

There is literally no reason to consider this state Likely R, or even Lean R if we're being honest. I doubt Donnelly is this far ahead, but anyone who disputes that the state is a tossup is a hack (or a certain unbannable concern troll).

[Ljube]

There is literally no reason to consider this state Likely R, or even Lean R if we're being honest. I doubt Donnelly is this far ahead, but anyone who disputes that the state is a tossup is a hack (or a certain unbannable concern troll).

We'll soon see.

[Lachi]

This is probably the single worst poll I've ever looked at.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Statewide elections don't always follow presidential races and Donnelly as well as Manchin  are beating the odds, since Braun and Morrisey's primary victories. This one, should Braun loses, has to put squarely on MIke Pence, who was unpopular as governor, in his homestate.

[pbrower2a]

It's hard to believe that Donnelly could be up 7% in Indiana... but this is a bad year for Republicans. I'd like to see results in Allen (Fort Wayne), St. Joseph (South Bend and Mishawaka), Elkhart, and Hamilton (northern suburbs of Indianapolis) counties... St. Joseph County is definitively Rust Belt. Hamilton County is politically similar to counties surrounding Atlanta and Dallas, with intellectually-upscale voters who have been slow to abandon the GOP. 

Add to this, Indiana is heavily rural, and farmers typically vote complacently for Republicans out of concern for higher taxes and of regulations of working conditions of farm laborers. Farmers will hate the President's trade wars when it lowers their income and costs them heavily on consumer goods. Farmers and their families are no longer the hicks of yore. 

Indiana has been nearly even in approval-disapproval numbers for President Trump and clearly less D than Michigan, Wisconsin, or even Ohio. Republicans could get the same WTF shock in 2018 and 2020 from Indiana that Democrats got from Iowa in 2014 (election of Joni Ernst) and 2016 (smashing rejection of Hillary Clinton).

[libertpaulian]

It's hard to believe that Donnelly could be up 7% in Indiana... but this is a bad year for Republicans. I'd like to see results in Allen (Fort Wayne), St. Joseph (South Bend and Mishawaka), Elkhart, and Hamilton (northern suburbs of Indianapolis) counties... St. Joseph County is definitively Rust Belt. Hamilton County is politically similar to counties surrounding Atlanta and Dallas, with intellectually-upscale voters who have been slow to abandon the GOP. 

Add to this, Indiana is heavily rural, and farmers typically vote complacently for Republicans out of concern for higher taxes and of regulations of working conditions of farm laborers. Farmers will hate the President's trade wars when it lowers their income and costs them heavily on consumer goods. Farmers and their families are no longer the hicks of yore. 

Indiana has been nearly even in approval-disapproval numbers for President Trump and clearly less D than Michigan, Wisconsin, or even Ohio. Republicans could get the same WTF shock in 2018 and 2020 from Indiana that Democrats got from Iowa in 2014 (election of Joni Ernst) and 2016 (smashing rejection of Hillary Clinton).

Hamilton is somewhat of an interesting case.  It's very similar to the WOW counties in its entrenched patterns of voting Republican, yet it's similar to the Atlanta/Houson/Dallas suburbs in that it has upscale voters who are slowly trending D.  The problem is that the D trend is TOO slow.

So, I'd say its status right now is somewhere between Waukesha and Gwinnett.

[McGovernForPrez]

One thing I think that's worth mentioning regardless of the poll results here. One of the biggest trends we've seen in 2018 is Trump losing support in the Midwest. If Sherrod Brown is ahead by double digits in Ohio, and Stabenow is ahead by double digits in Michigan, is it really that unrealistic to see Donnelly winning this race? I think if Trump is doing badly in other parts of the midwest he'll also be doing badly here. Otherwise I still think this a junk poll.

[libertpaulian]

One thing I think that's worth mentioning regardless of the poll results here. One of the biggest trends we've seen in 2018 is Trump losing support in the Midwest. If Sherrod Brown is ahead by double digits in Ohio, and Stabenow is ahead by double digits in Michigan, is it really that unrealistic to see Donnelly winning this race? I think if Trump is doing badly in other parts of the midwest he'll also be doing badly here. Otherwise I still think this a junk poll.

Indiana is the more "Southern" of the non-Great Plains Midwestern states, so Donnelly's candidacy is a little more up in the air.  Add in Indiana's partisanship and the Pence Factor, and you can understand why many fear Donnelly is doomed.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Braun would have to be a composite Akin-Mourdouch-Moore-Angle-O'Donnell specimen for this to happen.

[wesmoorenerd]

Braun would have to be a composite Akin-Mourdouch-Moore-Angle-O'Donnell specimen for this to happen.

Nominating Braun was risky. Messer and Rokita were both elected officials with known positions and track records. Braun was a comparative unknown. From the get-go he was either going to turn out to be a massively successful candidate or a dud with skeletons in his closet. Funny enough, after all this time, he still exists in that state of "unknown". We really don't know a lot about the guy's record, although the stuff that's coming out, like the Chinese made products stuff, doesn't reflect well on him.

[junior chįmp]

Braun is too low energy to win

[libertpaulian]

Braun is too low energy to win

True, but he's running a more fierce campaign than Donnelly is.

[Zaybay]

Braun is too low energy to win

True, but he's running a more fierce campaign than Donnelly is.

But the positions of both candidates is important to consider. Braun is an unknown, fighting against an incumbent with gobs of money, while Donelly has thrived in people not knowing his record and himself, to be honest. If Donelly were to go aggressive, it could backfire in his face, while if Braun let off the attack, he would lose.

[libertpaulian]

Braun is too low energy to win

True, but he's running a more fierce campaign than Donnelly is.

But the positions of both candidates is important to consider. Braun is an unknown, fighting against an incumbent with gobs of money, while Donelly has thrived in people not knowing his record and himself, to be honest. If Donelly were to go aggressive, it could backfire in his face, while if Braun let off the attack, he would lose.

Donnelly can't be a total doormat, though.

[Zaybay]

Braun is too low energy to win

True, but he's running a more fierce campaign than Donnelly is.

But the positions of both candidates is important to consider. Braun is an unknown, fighting against an incumbent with gobs of money, while Donelly has thrived in people not knowing his record and himself, to be honest. If Donelly were to go aggressive, it could backfire in his face, while if Braun let off the attack, he would lose.

Donnelly can't be a total doormat, though.

Of course, thats one of my major criticisms of him. He is going wayyyy to far with trying to be a moderate pushover, and I wish he would stick up for something.He shouldnt be aggressive, but hes now become basically a pushover. But, if thats what he wants to do, our complaining wont change anything.

[SnowLabrador]

This is a fake poll. Donnelly isn't winning 75% of seniors. And he's not winning by 12 overall, probably 5 at most.