MI - Change (El-Sayed int.): Whitmer +6

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

https://abdulformichigan.com/sites/default/files/AbdulElSayedToplines_ChangeResearch.pdf

1503 likely primary voters, July 20-21

Whitmer: 33.2%
El-Sayed: 27.4%
Thanedar: 15.1%

(Undecided: 24.3%)

More or less the best result El-Sayed has had so far (and his supporters are already pretty ecstatic about this poll, despite it being an internal and he's still behind by 6). Thanedar is way underperforming here from prior polls.

[Doimper]

At least we know Thanedar is getting sh**t on.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Decimals.

[Pericles]

What this poll tells me is that Whitmer will win. Being down 6 in your internal is genuinely bad.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

What this poll tells me is that Whitmer will win. Being down 6 in your internal is genuinely bad.

Yeah, and even this result visibly contrasts with pretty much every other poll, which have El-Sayed in last and both him and Thanedar behind by at least 10 points.

El-Sayed is trumpeting this as the best poll of the race so far because it wasn’t landline only (not sure if it’s true that all of the previous polls were landline only, though).

[ON Progressive]

This sample has an electorate that went to Sanders 58-42 in the Democratic primary, when he only won the MI Dem primary by 1.5%. Also, 60% of the electorate knowing who AOC is when most people in her own home state don't know who she is?

This is the kind of sample that El-Sayed should be well ahead in, but he's still down quite comfortably to Whitmer.

It should also be noted that Change Research is awful. They missed VA-Gov's Democratic primary by 22 points last year, and claimed Newman was well ahead of Lipinski in IL-03.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

1. Decimals

2. Internal

3. L-O-L

All that being said, a recent Huffpo (I know, they're trash but just go with it, okay?) article noted that there seemed to be a sense among Michigan politicos that Thanedar's position was tentative at best and slipping rapidly at worst and that the natural beneficiary of Thanedar bleeding votes would be El-Sayed. I doubt he'll win, but if there's another poll before Tuesday showing AES within single digits, this race might have the potential to surprise some people.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is Bernie coming to stump for him?

[KingSweden]

Is Bernie coming to stump for him?

I believe so, yes.