MS Special Election/Mike Espy (D) internal: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) down by 2

[Tender Branson]

Espy has a better chance than Rosen due to Sisolak.

That is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever heard.

He's a robot. Of course it's ridiculous.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just another reminder that folks here were seriously arguing that Espy should drop out because he's black.

I mean he shouldn't, but let's not kid ourselves either, if Doug Jones was black, Roy Moore would have won.

I'm assuming you're referring to your endorsement?

Haha very funny. I strongly support Mike Espy and hope to see him win, he is by far the most qualified candidate, but I just don't think he will pull it off.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just another reminder that folks here were seriously arguing that Espy should drop out because he's black.

I mean he shouldn't, but let's not kid ourselves either, if Doug Jones was black, Roy Moore would have won.

I mean, that just blatantly forgets how Jones won in the first place. Jones only won 30% of the white vote, which is rather average for Democrats. What was the difference was the fact that Jones won the Black Vote by historic margins, as much as Obama did. And they turned out. If Jones were black, its possible that more Black Dems would have turned out, and he likely still would have won.

30% of Whites nationally may be average to poor for democrats, but in Alabama, those numbers are just stellar. I could not see a black Doug Jones win 30% of the white vote in Alabama, and while they may raise black turnout to 32% or so, I feel like the racism and dog whistles would counter propel even more people on Moore's side to turnout out to keep black Jones out. I could see Espy winning in a Moore like scenario, and would even give him Espy the advantage, because Mississippi is substantially blacker than Alabama which I believe would more than make up the difference for getting less of the white vote and counter propelling bigots to the polls for The GOP.

[IceSpear]

Just another reminder that folks here were seriously arguing that Espy should drop out because he's black.

I mean he shouldn't, but let's not kid ourselves either, if Doug Jones was black, Roy Moore would have won.

I mean, that just blatantly forgets how Jones won in the first place. Jones only won 30% of the white vote, which is rather average for Democrats. What was the difference was the fact that Jones won the Black Vote by historic margins, as much as Obama did. And they turned out. If Jones were black, its possible that more Black Dems would have turned out, and he likely still would have won.

Obama lost by 21 points in 2008 despite black turnout because he only got 10% of the white vote. 30% is nowhere near the average for a Democrat in Alabama. If it was, it would be a swing state.

[Zaybay]

Just another reminder that folks here were seriously arguing that Espy should drop out because he's black.

I mean he shouldn't, but let's not kid ourselves either, if Doug Jones was black, Roy Moore would have won.

I mean, that just blatantly forgets how Jones won in the first place. Jones only won 30% of the white vote, which is rather average for Democrats. What was the difference was the fact that Jones won the Black Vote by historic margins, as much as Obama did. And they turned out. If Jones were black, its possible that more Black Dems would have turned out, and he likely still would have won.

Obama lost by 21 points in 2008 despite black turnout because he only got 10% of the white vote. 30% is nowhere near the average for a Democrat in Alabama. If it was, it would be a swing state.

\
Admittedly, there are no race reports of AL, but I was able to find ones for MS, which gives the Democrat about 25% of the white vote, and considering AL is actually less racially polarized than MS(I know, its crazy), then I can assume for around a 27% white vote. The reason Democrats keep losing AL is that, simply put, AAs dont have the numbers along with their white allies to push the state Left. The 2017 special saw a radical event occur, however. Blacks turned out more than they did in 2008, which is what actually propelled Jones to victory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Espy has a better chance than Rosen due to Sisolak.

That is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever heard.

He's a robot. Of course it's ridiculous.

Not ever race is gonna flow the way its supposed to and Rosen is a lackluster candidate

[Politician]

Espy has a better chance than Rosen due to Sisolak.

That is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever heard.

He's a robot. Of course it's ridiculous.

Not ever race is gonna flow the way its supposed to and Rosen is a lackluster candidate

Understatement of the century.

[mvd10]

Just another reminder that folks here were seriously arguing that Espy should drop out because he's black.

I mean he shouldn't, but let's not kid ourselves either, if Doug Jones was black, Roy Moore would have won.

I mean, that just blatantly forgets how Jones won in the first place. Jones only won 30% of the white vote, which is rather average for Democrats. What was the difference was the fact that Jones won the Black Vote by historic margins, as much as Obama did. And they turned out. If Jones were black, its possible that more Black Dems would have turned out, and he likely still would have won.

Obama lost by 21 points in 2008 despite black turnout because he only got 10% of the white vote. 30% is nowhere near the average for a Democrat in Alabama. If it was, it would be a swing state.

\
Admittedly, there are no race reports of AL, but I was able to find ones for MS, which gives the Democrat about 25% of the white vote, and considering AL is actually less racially polarized than MS(I know, its crazy), then I can assume for around a 27% white vote. The reason Democrats keep losing AL is that, simply put, AAs dont have the numbers along with their white allies to push the state Left. The 2017 special saw a radical event occur, however. Blacks turned out more than they did in 2008, which is what actually propelled Jones to victory.

The CNN 2012 exit poll had Romney winning Alabama whites 84-15 and Mississippi whites 89-10 (!), so I think we can safely assume that Democrats winning 25% of the white vote in those states isn't normal, even in non-presidential elections.

[mds32]

Garbage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Garbage.

This is a change election, and Mike Espy can win over Hyde-Smith

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Garbage.

This is a change election, and Mike Espy can win over Hyde-Smith

no

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, Cory Booker is campaigning for Espy.

[cvparty]

Yes, Cory Booker is campaigning for Espy.

no

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Trump camp hasnt done right and alot states GA, MD, TN, MS where ethnic blacks are in, just like in Latino states, GOP will have upsets. Its a hill for Espy, but Blacks are mad a Trump😁

[Adam Griffin]

Just another reminder that folks here were seriously arguing that Espy should drop out because he's black.

I mean he shouldn't, but let's not kid ourselves either, if Doug Jones was black, Roy Moore would have won.

I mean, that just blatantly forgets how Jones won in the first place. Jones only won 30% of the white vote, which is rather average for Democrats. What was the difference was the fact that Jones won the Black Vote by historic margins, as much as Obama did. And they turned out. If Jones were black, its possible that more Black Dems would have turned out, and he likely still would have won.

30% of the white vote in AL was astounding: definitely not average. In essence, doubled (or even tripled, depending on who you believe) compared to recent federal elections.

Too many people learned the wrong lessons from that race. The accurate lesson is that for victory in most of the South, you need a strong multi-racial coalition (just like the ones that existed in a slightly different composition in the 1990s) for Democrats to win. Comparing the turnout and support levels from 2012 & 2016 to the special in 2017 for AL and overlooking the very tiny non-black, non-white vote for convenience's sake*, the math is very clear: the shift between those elections margin-wise was comprised of 60% white shift (18 points in the margin), 40% black shift (12 points in the margin). Furthermore, if you want to break down the white category into rural and urban alongside the black category, then it was basically 20/40/40, respectively.

Without any of the three parts of this coalition's massive overperformance, Jones would have lost. This should be obvious: the support levels for Obama in 2008 among AL blacks were almost certainly at the level Jones enjoyed, and even if you had bumped up black turnout to 2017 levels, he would have lost the state by 15 points.

*I would say even they - a fourth part of the coalition - could have cost Jones the election without increased turnout and support given the margin


At any rate, the same dynamic will need to play out in MS for Espy to have a shot. A win in MS is less reliant on white vote but nevertheless an equally steep challenge (more black voters, but a lower white Dem support baseline from which to start).

[Adam Griffin]

If this is in any way true, it's disturbing how female republican candidates are running way behind expected benchmarks in red states, against male democrats. Hyde-Smith, Blackburn, Noem - this is a bit of a depressing pattern.

I know! Isn't it glorious?

[MT Treasurer]

Garbage.

This is a change election, and Mike Espy can win over Hyde-Smith

no

He could definitely beat her in a runoff if Republicans stay home (possible) and Democrats are still energized to go to the polls (likely).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It goes along with naysayers that Dems arent gonna win House. Jim Jordan has been accused of the samething Dennis Hassert has done

[Progressive Pessimist]

Too good to be true.

[MT Treasurer]

Not ever race is gonna flow the way its supposed to and Rosen is a lackluster candidate

Understatement of the century.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was saying that in response to others that think that all the races are gonna flow like presidential races. In 2002 and 2006, the only state to buck the Dem wave was NV when Gibbs ran against Dina Titus for Gov. Laxalt has family ancestory in NV. I like Mike Espy's chances for an upset

[Senator Incitatus]

It goes along with naysayers that Dems arent gonna win House. Jim Jordan has been accused of the samething Dennis Hassert has done

Pretty sure this is just straight up not true.

[136or142]

How many of those polled live in the 13th Mississippi Congressional district in El Salvador?

[South Dakota Democrat]

It goes along with naysayers that Dems arent gonna win House. Jim Jordan has been accused of the samething Dennis Hassert has done

Pretty sure this is just straight up not true.

He either has no clue what he's talking about most of the time, can't stop saying incoherent and unrelated things, is a troll, or some combination of these 3.  Think I might put him on ignore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It goes along with naysayers that Dems arent gonna win House. Jim Jordan has been accused of the samething Dennis Hassert has done

Pretty sure this is just straight up not true.

He either has no clue what he's talking about most of the time, can't stop saying incoherent and unrelated things, is a troll, or some combination of these 3.  Think I might put him on ignore.

Okay