TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +6

[Zaybay]

Beto has a chance with these numbers, but it is slim, around 25%.

[Zaybay]

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

[Zaybay]

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

No, the main problem he is facing is that he's running in Texas. It will take a whole lot other than simply raising his name recognition % to win there.

Hes already within 6 points. And its only the first day of August. And the people he doesnt have name rec with appear to be both rural Rs, who he cant win, and Hispanics, which he should be targeting. And he has just released his first ad a couple days ago.

Winning as a Democrat in TX is possible, it just takes some effort and luck. I will remind you that we have a D senator in AL, R governors in most of New England, a D governor of LA, and an Indie governor of AK, not everything is set in stone.

Can Beto win? Yes. Is it likely at this moment? No. Can it become more likely as Beto starts to use his funds, have debates with Cruz, and appeal to Hispanics? Yes.

And will there be factors out of both candidates control that can influence the race for either candidate, such as rising healthcare costs, federal detainment centers for immigrants, economic growth, Trump rallies, etc.? Totally.

[Zaybay]

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

No, the main problem he is facing is that he's running in Texas. It will take a whole lot other than simply raising his name recognition % to win there.

Hes already within 6 points. And its only the first day of August. And the people he doesnt have name rec with appear to be both rural Rs, who he cant win, and Hispanics, which he should be targeting. And he has just released his first ad a couple days ago.

Winning as a Democrat in TX is possible, it just takes some effort and luck. I will remind you that we have a D senator in AL, R governors in most of New England, a D governor of LA, and an Indie governor of AK, not everything is set in stone.

Can Beto win? Yes. Is it likely at this moment? No. Can it become more likely as Beto starts to use his funds, have debates with Cruz, and appeal to Hispanics? Yes.

And will there be factors out of both candidates control that can influence the race for either candidate, such as rising healthcare costs, federal detainment centers for immigrants, economic growth, Trump rallies, etc.? Totally.

Let me remind you that the first poll Quinnipiac conducted for this race had O'Rourke at 44% back in April. He fell to 39 for their second poll, then rose back to 43 for this poll. It's not like his numbers have been steadily rising. I do agree with the fact that the real campaign is about to begin, so there's room for him to improve (which is also true for Cruz, even more so than for O'Rourke).

True, but I dont see how Cruz can improve. There is nothing for him to improve on, he is known all across the state, has been on the airwaves, and has a large advantage. Beto is only known to 1/2 the state, has only released his first ad, and is at a large structural advantage. If anyone is improving, its going to be, like for most races during this midterm, the Democrat.