|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 27, 2020, 08:40:48 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +6
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +6  (Read 1390 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 738
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 01, 2018, 11:38:30 am »

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2559

Cruz 49
O'Rourke 43
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2018, 11:44:19 am »

Looks about right.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,479
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2018, 11:45:32 am »

Yeah, this is where the race is.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,649
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2018, 11:47:13 am »

Sounds right
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,985
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2018, 11:50:39 am »

Amazing that Trump is still underwater in Texas.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,518
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2018, 11:52:41 am »

O'Rourke needs to badly increase his name recognition ...

According to the poll, about half of all voters have no opinion of him a few months before the election. But of those who do, he's viewed quite favourably (especially among Independents).
Logged
Oryxslayer
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,160


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2018, 11:53:11 am »


Change of -1 for Cruz and +4 for O'Rourke since their May poll. Survey also finds 43% of voters don't know enough about O'Rourke still to form a opinion about him.
Logged
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,959
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2018, 11:57:24 am »

Looks about right.

Cruz is going to win, but it's nice to see O'Rourke chomp at his heels.
Logged
libertpaulian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,760
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2018, 12:14:45 pm »

If Cruz wins by only mid-single digits, Hurd is toast.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,985
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2018, 12:22:58 pm »

If Cruz wins by only mid-single digits, Hurd is toast.

If Curz wins by only mid-single digits, TX-07, TX-23 and TX-32 all flip and others start getting close.
Logged
Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,390
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2018, 12:30:15 pm »

If Cruz wins by only mid-single digits, Hurd is toast.

I wouldn’t say so. Cruz is just naturally unlikeable. Hurd is likeabke. And his district is notoriously low tirnout
Logged
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,824
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2018, 12:31:05 pm »

Beto has a chance with these numbers, but it is slim, around 25%.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,730
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2018, 12:31:55 pm »

As expected.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,649
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2018, 12:32:45 pm »

If Cruz wins by only mid-single digits, Hurd is toast.

I wouldn’t say so. Cruz is just naturally unlikeable. Hurd is likeabke. And his district is notoriously low tirnout

Welcome back lol.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,985
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2018, 12:32:55 pm »

If Cruz wins by only mid-single digits, Hurd is toast.

I wouldn’t say so. Cruz is just naturally unlikeable. Hurd is likeabke. And his district is notoriously low tirnout

Democrats just had a 8 point over performance via 2016 in a Senate district have essentially overlaps TX-23.
Logged
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,824
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2018, 12:40:23 pm »

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,730
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2018, 12:42:47 pm »

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

No, the main problem he is facing is that he's running in Texas. It will take a whole lot other than simply raising his name recognition % to win there.
Logged
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,824
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2018, 12:45:32 pm »
« Edited: August 01, 2018, 12:49:04 pm by Zaybay »

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

No, the main problem he is facing is that he's running in Texas. It will take a whole lot other than simply raising his name recognition % to win there.
Hes already within 6 points. And its only the first day of August. And the people he doesnt have name rec with appear to be both rural Rs, who he cant win, and Hispanics, which he should be targeting. And he has just released his first ad a couple days ago.

Winning as a Democrat in TX is possible, it just takes some effort and luck. I will remind you that we have a D senator in AL, R governors in most of New England, a D governor of LA, and an Indie governor of AK, not everything is set in stone.

Can Beto win? Yes. Is it likely at this moment? No. Can it become more likely as Beto starts to use his funds, have debates with Cruz, and appeal to Hispanics? Yes.

And will there be factors out of both candidates control that can influence the race for either candidate, such as rising healthcare costs, federal detainment centers for immigrants, economic growth, Trump rallies, etc.? Totally.
Logged
#gravelgang #lessiglad
Serious_Username
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,620
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2018, 12:57:36 pm »

Cruz is still the favorite, but O'Rourke has about a one in six chance of winning this. O'Rourke's path absolutely has to be increasing his name recognition, using that colossal war chest of his. Ultimately, I don't think he gets it done, but I wouldn't be surprised if he does.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,730
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2018, 01:08:25 pm »

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

No, the main problem he is facing is that he's running in Texas. It will take a whole lot other than simply raising his name recognition % to win there.
Hes already within 6 points. And its only the first day of August. And the people he doesnt have name rec with appear to be both rural Rs, who he cant win, and Hispanics, which he should be targeting. And he has just released his first ad a couple days ago.

Winning as a Democrat in TX is possible, it just takes some effort and luck. I will remind you that we have a D senator in AL, R governors in most of New England, a D governor of LA, and an Indie governor of AK, not everything is set in stone.

Can Beto win? Yes. Is it likely at this moment? No. Can it become more likely as Beto starts to use his funds, have debates with Cruz, and appeal to Hispanics? Yes.

And will there be factors out of both candidates control that can influence the race for either candidate, such as rising healthcare costs, federal detainment centers for immigrants, economic growth, Trump rallies, etc.? Totally.

Let me remind you that the first poll Quinnipiac conducted for this race had O'Rourke at 44% back in April. He fell to 39 for their second poll, then rose back to 43 for this poll. It's not like his numbers have been steadily rising. I do agree with the fact that the real campaign is about to begin, so there's room for him to improve (which is also true for Cruz, even more so than for O'Rourke).
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,275
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2018, 01:29:45 pm »

Seems about right, Lean/Likely R.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,217
Germany



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2018, 01:33:09 pm »

Yeah, that's what I expect the margin to be in the end. Five to eight points in Cruz' favor. Maybe 52-46% or so.
Logged
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,824
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2018, 01:37:40 pm »

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

No, the main problem he is facing is that he's running in Texas. It will take a whole lot other than simply raising his name recognition % to win there.
Hes already within 6 points. And its only the first day of August. And the people he doesnt have name rec with appear to be both rural Rs, who he cant win, and Hispanics, which he should be targeting. And he has just released his first ad a couple days ago.

Winning as a Democrat in TX is possible, it just takes some effort and luck. I will remind you that we have a D senator in AL, R governors in most of New England, a D governor of LA, and an Indie governor of AK, not everything is set in stone.

Can Beto win? Yes. Is it likely at this moment? No. Can it become more likely as Beto starts to use his funds, have debates with Cruz, and appeal to Hispanics? Yes.

And will there be factors out of both candidates control that can influence the race for either candidate, such as rising healthcare costs, federal detainment centers for immigrants, economic growth, Trump rallies, etc.? Totally.

Let me remind you that the first poll Quinnipiac conducted for this race had O'Rourke at 44% back in April. He fell to 39 for their second poll, then rose back to 43 for this poll. It's not like his numbers have been steadily rising. I do agree with the fact that the real campaign is about to begin, so there's room for him to improve (which is also true for Cruz, even more so than for O'Rourke).
True, but I dont see how Cruz can improve. There is nothing for him to improve on, he is known all across the state, has been on the airwaves, and has a large advantage. Beto is only known to 1/2 the state, has only released his first ad, and is at a large structural advantage. If anyone is improving, its going to be, like for most races during this midterm, the Democrat.

Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,708
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2018, 02:28:06 pm »

Nominating Valdez instead of Andrew White obviously is hurting Beto, everytime he comes close, there's a poll out showing Valdez well behind.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2018, 02:39:09 pm »

VA-2006 redux!
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.29 seconds with 14 queries.