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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX-Lyceum: Cruz +2
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Author Topic: TX-Lyceum: Cruz +2  (Read 1675 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: August 01, 2018, 08:28:26 am »
« edited: August 01, 2018, 08:41:26 am by TheRocketRaccoon »





Cruz 41
O'Rourke 39
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2018, 08:40:27 am »

Cruz 41
O'Rourke 39

Trash poll is you ask me.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2018, 08:44:01 am »

Probably junk, like a lot of the recent polls.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2018, 09:03:19 am »

LOL at the similarity to the NV poll with titanium unbeatable Heller +1.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2018, 09:07:26 am »

No, Rosen isnt as strong as Sinema and Bredesen who dont have incumbents to take down. I would love to see Cruz lose
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Zaybay
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2018, 09:11:50 am »

Im deeply surprised that Cruz is +2 while Abbott is +16, when for most of election polling, they have only been 4 points off. This poll seems like junk, considering Ive never heard of the company, and the large amount of undecideds.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2018, 09:13:22 am »

Dems nominated Valdez instead of Andrew White, case closed
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KingSweden
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2018, 09:28:11 am »

Cruz running that far behind all the other statewide Republicans makes me skeptical.
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#gravelgang #lessiglad
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« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2018, 10:22:14 am »

I want to believe dot jpeg.

In all seriousness, Lyceum has been a mediocre-to-poor polling outlet for some time now, so I wouldn't place much stock in these results. They aren't even rated by 538!
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krazen1211
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2018, 10:50:39 am »

No way.



https://twitter.com/WilsonWPA/status/1024650023051644930

@TexasLyceum Sample is 46% while -- that's at least 14% under where it will be on Election Day #txlege
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#Klobmentum
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2018, 10:53:50 am »

No way.



https://twitter.com/WilsonWPA/status/1024650023051644930

@TexasLyceum Sample is 46% while -- that's at least 14% under where it will be on Election Day #txlege

Krazen picking apart a poll? Thats ironic.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2018, 10:54:23 am »

Lyceum is a mediocre at best pollster; fortunately we have a Quinnipiac poll of Texas to look forward to today.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2018, 10:54:55 am »

Im deeply surprised that Cruz is +2 while Abbott is +16, when for most of election polling, they have only been 4 points off. This poll seems like junk, considering Ive never heard of the company, and the large amount of undecideds.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2018, 10:55:56 am »

Lyceum is a mediocre at best pollster; fortunately we have a Quinnipiac poll of Texas to look forward to today.
we do? Joy! Both OH and TX polling from great pollsters today!
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Beet
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2018, 10:56:13 am »

I knew it. Beto is going to pull this one off. My prediction just days ago:

Greg Abbott 57
Lupe Valdez 42

Beto O'Rourke 50
Ted Cruz 49
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reagente
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« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2018, 10:56:25 am »

Partisan Breakdown:
39% GOP
39% Dem
22% Other

Racial Breakdown:
46% Non-Hispanic White
11% African American
36% Hispanic
6% Other

Age Breakdown:
23% 18-29
27% 30-44
33%  45-64
18% 65+

I guess this isn't impossible - but this certainly feels very out of the ordinary for Texas. Hispanics having significantly higher turnout than Whites in a midterm? (since non-Hispanic Whites are 54% of citizens over 18, while Hispanics are 28% of citizens over 18 in Texas)
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2018, 11:01:16 am »

If even Texas Lyceum canít show an O'Rourke lead...
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Cuca_Beludo
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« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2018, 11:01:52 am »

Cruz will win by 8-10 points while Abbott wins by 17-20.

I'll come back to this thread after the election.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2018, 11:06:00 am »

Probably a bad poll, still within my range of expectations for a Lean R race.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2018, 11:09:00 am »

Cruz will win by 8-10 points while Abbott wins by 17-20.

I'll come back to this thread after the election.

Who tf r u
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2018, 11:09:16 am »

Hmmm, I wonder what would maybe make Hispanics turnout at higher than normal levels? Maybe people that look like them having their children stripped from them and placed in concentration camps?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2018, 11:12:52 am »

I think we should wait on the Quinnipac Poll instead of this one, too many undecideds and weird fundamentals, definitely possible, but a rather unknown. Quinnipac should give us a better image of the race.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2018, 11:13:53 am »

I think we should wait on the Quinnipac Poll instead of this one, too many undecideds and weird fundamentals, definitely possible, but a rather unknown. Quinnipac should give us a better image of the race.

Agreed
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2018, 04:54:34 pm »

I'm overdosing on junk polls today!
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2018, 06:10:43 pm »

I'm overdosing on junk polls today!


What do you mean overdosed on junk polls? It's that time of the year where partisans rally towards their based and Dems are more energized than GOP and its and incumbent mood.  Incumbents from both parties will get bounced, at the same time, Dems will control Congress.
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