When did Democrats last win the white vote in Senatorial races?

[I’m not Stu]

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

No, she didn't.

I meant that Clinton won the white vote in California, not nationally. Trump lost the white vote in California.

I am fairly certain you are wrong.

You actually thought Trump won the white vote in California?

White vote in California:
2008: Obama (D)
2012: Romney (R)
2016: Clinton (D)

[I’m not Stu]

Who will win the white vote for Governor of California, Gavin Newsom (D) or John Cox (R)?

[jeron]

My guesses for the northeast:

Connecticut: Blumenthal 2016
Maine: Mitchell 1988(!)
Massachusetts: Markey 2014
New Hampshire: Shaheen 2014
New Jersey: Menendez 2012
New York: Schumer 2016
Pennsylvania: Casey 2012
Rhode Island: Reed 2014
Vermont: Leahy 2016

Extremely doubtful on Menendez. Exit polling¹ shows Obama got 43% of the white vote in NJ, and Menendez did very slightly worse than Obama overall. Even if we take the exit poll with a grain of salt, that's a significant enough margin to make me think Kyrillos likely won whites.

My guess is that the last time a Democrat won the white vote in New Jersey was 1984, maybe earlier. People overlook how divided this state is.

¹http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NJ/president/

Menendez got 44% of the white vote

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Last time they didn't in Minnesota was 2008.

[BuckeyeNut]

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

No, she didn't.

I meant that Clinton won the white vote in California, not nationally. Trump lost the white vote in California.

I am fairly certain you are wrong.

Actually, he is correct. According to the Sacramento Bee, Hillary Clinton won white voters in California by 5% in 2016: https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/california-forum/article119870398.html.

Ah, my apologies. I was thinking white men.

[I’m not Stu]

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

No, she didn't.

I meant that Clinton won the white vote in California, not nationally. Trump lost the white vote in California.

I am fairly certain you are wrong.

Actually, he is correct. According to the Sacramento Bee, Hillary Clinton won white voters in California by 5% in 2016: https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/california-forum/article119870398.html.

Ah, my apologies. I was thinking white men.

Trump won white men, not whites in general. Trump still did worse with white men in California than he did in most states.

[Calthrina950]

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

No, she didn't.

I meant that Clinton won the white vote in California, not nationally. Trump lost the white vote in California.

I am fairly certain you are wrong.

Actually, he is correct. According to the Sacramento Bee, Hillary Clinton won white voters in California by 5% in 2016: https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/california-forum/article119870398.html.

Ah, my apologies. I was thinking white men.

Trump won white men, not whites in general. Trump still did worse with white men in California than he did in most states.

Are there any states where Trump lost white men outright? I would imagine either Massachusetts or Vermont would fit that category.

[Politician]

Who will win the white vote for Governor of California, Gavin Newsom (D) or John Cox (R)?

Cox by a hair.

[Calthrina950]

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

No, she didn't.

I meant that Clinton won the white vote in California, not nationally. Trump lost the white vote in California.

I am fairly certain you are wrong.

Actually, he is correct. According to the Sacramento Bee, Hillary Clinton won white voters in California by 5% in 2016: https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/california-forum/article119870398.html.

Ah, my apologies. I was thinking white men.

Trump won white men, not whites in general. Trump still did worse with white men in California than he did in most states.

Are there any states where Trump lost white men outright? I would imagine either Massachusetts or Vermont would fit that category.

Bumping this up because these questions were never answered. Also, because I would like to know how the status of the "last Democratic victory with white voters" map has changed, given the recent midterms.

[Xing]

I'm guessing they won the white vote in these states in 2018: California (obviously), Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota (special and regular), Montana, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

King and Sanders obviously won the white vote in Maine and Vermont, but they're technically not Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

It's possible Casey actually won the white vote in PA in 2018. CNN's exit has it Barletta 50/Casey 49.

[Badger]

If one justifiably identifies King and Sanders as Democrats, they obviously both count.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

That makes sense, given that Harris won the vast majority of California's counties. As to Georgia, isn't it possible that Zell Miller in 2000 won the white vote? He defeated Mack Mattingly by 20 points, got 58% of the vote, and won 144 of Georgia's 154 counties.

Oh yes, Miller definitely won the GA White vote in 2000.  I forgot about that one since it was a special election.  Nunn would have been the last in a regularly-scheduled election.

Hate to bump this but since it was already bumped in February, why not. This is incorrect, Mattingly defeated Miller 50-45 with white voters according to exit polls.

[ElectionsGuy]

Alabama: 1992
Alaska: 1974 (Gravel!)
Arizona: 1988
Arkansas: 2008 (2004 when there was actual R opposition)
California: 2018
Colorado: 2016 (iffy), definitely 2008
Connecticut: 2018
Delaware: Probably 2018
Florida: 2006
Georgia: 2000
Hawaii: 2018
Idaho: 1974
Illinois: 2008
Indiana: 2004
Iowa: 2004
Kansas: 1930?
Kentucky: 1992
Louisiana: 1998
Maine: 2018 (King/Ringlestein)
Maryland: 2018? 2012? Don't know
Massachusetts: 2018
Michigan: 2014? 2012 for sure
Minnesota: 2018
Mississippi: 1982
Missouri: Maybe 2012, but if not 1974
Montana: Probably 2018, 2012, if not 2008 for sure
Nebraska: 2006
Nevada: 2004
New Hampshire: 2014
New Jersey: Probably 1984
New Mexico: Probably 2018
New York: 2018
North Carolina: 1974
North Dakota: 2006
Ohio: 2006
Oklahoma: 1990
Oregon: 2016
Pennsylvania: 2006
Rhode Island: 2018
South Carolina: 1986
South Dakota: 2008
Tennessee: 1990
Texas: 1988
Utah: 1970
Vermont: 2018 (Sanders)
Virginia: 2008
Washington: 2018
West Virginia: MAYBE 2018, if not 2012
Wisconsin: Probably 2018, if not 2006
Wyoming: 1970

[henster]

FOX News exit poll showed Kaine tied Stewart among white voters 49/49, given MoE decent chance he actually won it. Warner won whites in '08 by 13.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=VA&type=S

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=VAS01p1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems have an excellent chance this year with Kelly, Grissom and Al Gross. Would had a better chance with Bullock in Mnt

[Hoosier_Nick]

Indiana definitely last did in '04 when Bayh crushed it statewide.

[beesley]

My guesses for the northeast:


Rhode Island: Reed 2014

Interesting. What proportion of RI is non-white anyway?

[Calthrina950]

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

That makes sense, given that Harris won the vast majority of California's counties. As to Georgia, isn't it possible that Zell Miller in 2000 won the white vote? He defeated Mack Mattingly by 20 points, got 58% of the vote, and won 144 of Georgia's 154 counties.

Oh yes, Miller definitely won the GA White vote in 2000.  I forgot about that one since it was a special election.  Nunn would have been the last in a regularly-scheduled election.

Hate to bump this but since it was already bumped in February, why not. This is incorrect, Mattingly defeated Miller 50-45 with white voters according to exit polls.

And I'm going to bump this again, but what exit polls are you speaking of? CNN? Or some other network? The county map in that Senate race implies that Mattingly lost the white vote, given that Miller won almost all of the heavily white counties in North Georgia.

[I’m not Stu]

2018 in California. In a race with GOP opposition, Gavin Newsom won the white vote in the gubernatorial race. Feinstein still would have won the white vote if she faced a Republican (likely James Bradley) instead. Unlike Hillary Clinton, Gavin Newsom even won white men.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

That makes sense, given that Harris won the vast majority of California's counties. As to Georgia, isn't it possible that Zell Miller in 2000 won the white vote? He defeated Mack Mattingly by 20 points, got 58% of the vote, and won 144 of Georgia's 154 counties.

Oh yes, Miller definitely won the GA White vote in 2000.  I forgot about that one since it was a special election.  Nunn would have been the last in a regularly-scheduled election.

Hate to bump this but since it was already bumped in February, why not. This is incorrect, Mattingly defeated Miller 50-45 with white voters according to exit polls.

And I'm going to bump this again, but what exit polls are you speaking of? CNN? Or some other network? The county map in that Senate race implies that Mattingly lost the white vote, given that Miller won almost all of the heavily white counties in North Georgia.

https://www.cbsnews.com/campaign2000results/election/

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Considering West Virginia 2018:

Joe Manchin won by 3.3%

CNN Exit polls had him up by 3% with White voters and up by 13% with non-White voters, which feels very, very, wrong.

Let's try like this:
The Black share of the electorate is likely slightly more than 3%
Other minorities are hard to guess, but probably have crept up to 2% even in a midterm environment.
I see no reason why Manchin should not have won the Black vote 90-10 or something.
Other minorities may be less D than in other states, but (exit poll garbage aside) I would think they were still at least 60-40 for Manchin.
This would mean Manchin netting 2.5% or so from Black voters and maybe close to 0.5% from other minorities.
This in turn would leave only 0.3% netted from White voters. Such a margin would get rounded to 0 very easily. And would effectively become 0 if we assume that other minorities were actually more Democratic.

So my look is that it is best to think of Manchin as having effectively tied the White vote in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

Considering West Virginia 2018:

Joe Manchin won by 3.3%

CNN Exit polls had him up by 3% with White voters and up by 13% with non-White voters, which feels very, very, wrong.

Let's try like this:
The Black share of the electorate is likely slightly more than 3%
Other minorities are hard to guess, but probably have crept up to 2% even in a midterm environment.
I see no reason why Manchin should not have won the Black vote 90-10 or something.
Other minorities may be less D than in other states, but (exit poll garbage aside) I would think they were still at least 60-40 for Manchin.
This would mean Manchin netting 2.5% or so from Black voters and maybe close to 0.5% from other minorities.
This in turn would leave only 0.3% netted from White voters. Such a margin would get rounded to 0 very easily. And would effectively become 0 if we assume that other minorities were actually more Democratic.

So my look is that it is best to think of Manchin as having effectively tied the White vote in 2018.

West Virginia is a very white state, so the difference between its overall vote and the white vote isn't that substantial. I think Manchin eked out a very narrow plurality of white voters, carrying white women, while white men almost certainly went for Morrisey.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Considering West Virginia 2018:

Joe Manchin won by 3.3%

CNN Exit polls had him up by 3% with White voters and up by 13% with non-White voters, which feels very, very, wrong.

Let's try like this:
The Black share of the electorate is likely slightly more than 3%
Other minorities are hard to guess, but probably have crept up to 2% even in a midterm environment.
I see no reason why Manchin should not have won the Black vote 90-10 or something.
Other minorities may be less D than in other states, but (exit poll garbage aside) I would think they were still at least 60-40 for Manchin.
This would mean Manchin netting 2.5% or so from Black voters and maybe close to 0.5% from other minorities.
This in turn would leave only 0.3% netted from White voters. Such a margin would get rounded to 0 very easily. And would effectively become 0 if we assume that other minorities were actually more Democratic.

So my look is that it is best to think of Manchin as having effectively tied the White vote in 2018.

West Virginia is a very white state, so the difference between its overall vote and the white vote isn't that substantial. I think Manchin eked out a very narrow plurality of white voters, carrying white women, while white men almost certainly went for Morrisey.

Yes, a very narrow plurality for Manchin is more likely than a very narrow plurality for Morrisey, but my point is that the difference is so small that it is best to think the White vote as a tie.


Of course Manchin won the White vote big in 2012 instead (so that would be the Democrats' last time in WV).

[I’m not Stu]

Did Manchin or Morrisey win the white vote? I think Morrisey won it, despite losing statewide in a very white state. In Hawaii, did Mazie Hirono or Ron Curtis win the white vote?