GA: Gravis Marketing: Stacey Abrams (D) +2 vs. Brian Kemp (R)
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  GA: Gravis Marketing: Stacey Abrams (D) +2 vs. Brian Kemp (R)
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Author Topic: GA: Gravis Marketing: Stacey Abrams (D) +2 vs. Brian Kemp (R)  (Read 3213 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #25 on: July 31, 2018, 05:15:56 PM »

OR is gonna be competetive, unlike Menenedez who has Latinos and Blacks to fall back on. Female candidates sometimes underperform males. Unlike in Iowa where Reynolds is running away with race
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OneJ
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« Reply #26 on: July 31, 2018, 05:21:34 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2018, 05:32:48 PM by OneJ »

I would like to believe this, but I realize it’s Gravis. However, the result of this poll shouldn’t surprise anyone watching this race closely. I still think it’s Lean R, however.

Also...

Lt. Gov:
Riggs Amico (D) - 43%
Duncan (R) - 41%

SOS:
Barrow (D) - 45%
Raffensperger (R) - 41%
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YE
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« Reply #27 on: July 31, 2018, 05:27:06 PM »

Gravis is not a good pollster. Very little weight should be applied to this poll regardless of who this favors.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #28 on: July 31, 2018, 05:37:31 PM »

That's why we have elections, every state don't always vote the same way every election, 2016, WI proves this. GA is following suit in 2018.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #29 on: July 31, 2018, 06:38:14 PM »

It always kills me when Gravis provides me with some optimism. It's like I'm being lied to.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #30 on: July 31, 2018, 08:33:20 PM »

The astrology of this contest is quite fascinating to say the least.

Barely tilts to Kemp.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #31 on: July 31, 2018, 08:52:10 PM »

ignore my last post.

Stacy Abrams literally has one of the luckiest and best transits for legal dealings on Jan 14th 2019. Whoa..

and I would think a governors inauguration is a "legal dealing".

Congrats Governor Abrams!
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #32 on: July 31, 2018, 08:56:13 PM »

Gravis isn't exactly the greatest pollster around, but given that Georgia hasn't reached Virginia status yet, Kemp shouldn't have to be defending this open seat.  Tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #33 on: July 31, 2018, 09:05:58 PM »

Yes, congratulations Abrams
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #34 on: July 31, 2018, 09:11:29 PM »

ignore my last post.

Stacy Abrams literally has one of the luckiest and best transits for legal dealings on Jan 14th 2019. Whoa..

and I would think a governors inauguration is a "legal dealing".

Congrats Governor Abrams!
God, I hope you're right!
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #35 on: July 31, 2018, 09:16:25 PM »

ignore my last post.

Stacy Abrams literally has one of the luckiest and best transits for legal dealings on Jan 14th 2019. Whoa..

and I would think a governors inauguration is a "legal dealing".

Congrats Governor Abrams!
God, I hope you're right!

Trust me.. I will be frantically refreshing results in both the Atlanta and Chicago suburban rings to see if astrology is correct. If it is not.. I will drop the subject and never will use astrology again.
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Pericles
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« Reply #36 on: July 31, 2018, 10:56:12 PM »

Seems like a reasonable number. However a 2-point lead of 49.9% to 47.9% is meaningless, the real question is whether Abrams can turn that 46% into 50% or more.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #37 on: July 31, 2018, 11:24:49 PM »

OR is gonna be competetive, unlike Menenedez who has Latinos and Blacks to fall back on. Female candidates sometimes underperform males. Unlike in Iowa where Reynolds is running away with race

I'm not sure why you keep stubbornly asserting that Reynolds is safe/running away with her race.  That's just not supported by the evidence.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #38 on: July 31, 2018, 11:57:57 PM »

Terry Brandstand was hugely popular and she was his LT Gov, there's no polling at the moment and she isnt no Janet Mills who can be upset by Shawn Moody. Last poll had Reynolds up by 4 and no internal polls from Hubbell camp to dispute that. I say she wins by six
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #39 on: August 01, 2018, 12:30:16 AM »

Terry Brandstand was hugely popular and she was his LT Gov, there's no polling at the moment and she isnt no Janet Mills who can be upset by Shawn Moody. Last poll had Reynolds up by 4 and no internal polls from Hubbell camp to dispute that. I say she wins by six

Except there is polling that indicates it's a tossup or perhaps tilt R.
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Rhenna
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« Reply #40 on: August 01, 2018, 06:33:22 AM »

Not good for Handel I suspect if the race really is a toss up (downgraded from Lean R IMO). I suppose Handel is still Lean R because of the lack of flexibility in her district, but June 2017 will be far different than November 2018.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #41 on: August 01, 2018, 09:00:49 AM »

Not good for Handel I suspect if the race really is a toss up (downgraded from Lean R IMO). I suppose Handel is still Lean R because of the lack of flexibility in her district, but June 2017 will be far different than November 2018.
Handel is going to win. Abrams winning will not be enough to carry a one issue political novice across the finish line in an educated district like GA-06. I can imagine many Abrams-Handel voters.
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Xing
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« Reply #42 on: August 01, 2018, 10:18:13 AM »

What´s with all the Gravis polls recently? Anyway, I´ll still go with Lean R for this race until a reliable pollster shows similar numbers.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #43 on: August 01, 2018, 02:18:00 PM »

Not good for Handel I suspect if the race really is a toss up (downgraded from Lean R IMO). I suppose Handel is still Lean R because of the lack of flexibility in her district, but June 2017 will be far different than November 2018.
Handel is going to win. Abrams winning will not be enough to carry a one issue political novice across the finish line in an educated district like GA-06. I can imagine many Abrams-Handel voters.
I think you're underestimating McBath. People hear "gun control candidate" and act like McBath is some doomed paper candidate, and while gun control is the reason she got into politics and that's a lot of her personal story, she's more dynamic than she gets credit for. Not to mention GA-06 isn't a bad district in which to run on gun control. Handel is the favorite but McBath certainly has an opening if you ask me.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #44 on: August 01, 2018, 02:25:38 PM »

Not good for Handel I suspect if the race really is a toss up (downgraded from Lean R IMO). I suppose Handel is still Lean R because of the lack of flexibility in her district, but June 2017 will be far different than November 2018.
Handel is going to win. Abrams winning will not be enough to carry a one issue political novice across the finish line in an educated district like GA-06. I can imagine many Abrams-Handel voters.
I think you're underestimating McBath. People hear "gun control candidate" and act like McBath is some doomed paper candidate, and while gun control is the reason she got into politics and that's a lot of her personal story, she's more dynamic than she gets credit for. Not to mention GA-06 isn't a bad district in which to run on gun control. Handel is the favorite but McBath certainly has an opening if you ask me.
I like her and wanted her to win her primary. I hope she is able to pivot. She is a two time breast cancer survivor so healthcare can be something good to shore up support. We'll see.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #45 on: August 01, 2018, 05:14:06 PM »

What´s with all the Gravis polls recently? Anyway, I´ll still go with Lean R for this race until a reliable pollster shows similar numbers.

CNN has move alot of GOP leaning seats to tossup and following suit OH-12, KS-02, AZ-02, FL-27; many of the red states are moving towards the Democrats for governorships as well, except for NV.

Oddly enough, in 2006, NV bucked the trend of the Democratic govs in KS, TN, AZ, and KS where Gibbs was running against Dina Titus, and Sisolak is performing below expectations.
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