FL-Sen, Mason-Dixon: Scott in the lead (user search)
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  FL-Sen, Mason-Dixon: Scott in the lead (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-Sen, Mason-Dixon: Scott in the lead  (Read 4842 times)
Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,088
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Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: July 31, 2018, 11:25:31 PM »

Mason-Dixon used to be a decent pollster (before cell phone polling became a thing); seems like they never really adapted properly to it.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2018, 01:14:12 AM »

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THE RCP AVERAGE OF SIX POLLS IS SCOTT +1.2.

I still rate it as toss up, but hopeful.

Personally, I believe only 2 of those 6 polls are worth considering based on pollster credibility: the NBC/Marist and CBS/YouGov polls. That shows Scott ahead by half a point, which is of course no meaningfully different than the +1.2 result from the last 6 polls. Nevertheless, garbage pollsters are garbage pollsters - and even if they end up being right, it doesn't mean they were right because they knew what they were doing.

At any rate, I was merely commenting on the s[inks]ttiness of Mason-Dixon in general: not the specific result. We don't get many polls from them these days and therefore not many opportunities to remind people that they're now a garbage pollster. It's obvious that this is a close race. I would point out that at this point in an election cycle, fundamentals generally are a better indicator of performance than polling.
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